pale in significance compared with what might come [] Once climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Evaluating climate risks and developing adaptation strategies to manage risk and take advantage of a warming climate - examples from and for business Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo; Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Regina The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come […] Once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late .” Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the G20’s Financial Stability Board. SustainTech 2018, 22 March 2018, Saskatoon

Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure vulnerability climate variability climate opportunities coping strategy governance global warming carbon tax climate risks oversight responsibility adaptive capacity carbon capture and storage climate change denial extreme weather

Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure vulnerability climate variability climate opportunities coping strategy governance global warming carbon tax climate risks oversight responsibility adaptive capacity carbon capture and storage climate change denial extreme weather

Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure vulnerability climate variability climate opportunities coping strategy governance global warming carbon tax climate risks oversight responsibility adaptive capacity carbon capture and storage climate change denial extreme weather

Climate change is a business problem Financial Times, May 24, 2014 Business leaders face many questions with the impacts of climate change Business risk from climate change Globe and Mail, March 9, 2018 now top of mind for Canada’s corporate boards Globe and Mail, November 22, 2017 Four Reasons Climate Change Adaptation Should be on Every Executive's Radar Network for Business Sustainability, September 28, 2017 Carney's Climate Fight Gets $6.3 Trillion Boost From Firms Bloomberg, December 12, 2017 More Than 900 Examples Of How Climate Change Affects Business Forbes, March 15, 2017

Climate Change as a Business Issue FEI Canada is the all industry professional membership association for senior financial executives

Canada’s First Regional Climate Service In 1998, the federal government proposed a Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network and a physical node where the effects of climate are significant and where some adaptation research capacity and coordination already exists . On March 24, 2000, Minister of Natural Resources, Ralph Goodale, announced the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative , Canada’s first regional climate center - a partnership of the governments of Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

More than 100 PARC Research Projects Including some some major initiatives ($100K to > $2M over 2-5 years): • C-CIARN Prairies, 2000-2006: NRCan • Manitoba Hydro Research Chairs, 2003-06 • Climate Change Scenarios, Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment, 2004-2008: GoA • Biophysical Impact Assessment / SaskAdapt, 2006-10: GoS • Prairies Chapter of the National Assessment, 2006-08: NRCan • Phase 1 of the Prairies RAC, 2008-11: NRCan • Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes (VACEA), 2011-16: NSERC, SSHRC, IDRC • South Saskatchewan River Basin Adaptation Project, 2011-16: WaterSMART Solutions / NSERC • Urban Water Management in the Context of Climate Change, 2013-15: EPCOR , City of Calgary , AB Innovates • Water Resources Challenges in a Changing Climate, 2013-2017: ECCC

More than 400 inquiries from government agencies, communities, and public and professional organizations, for example: • Conference Board of Canada • SK Institute of Agrology • National Council of Women • Town of Viking, AB • Prairie Conservation Action Plan • SK Irrigation Projects Assoc • AB Epidemiology Association • Parkland Conservation Farm • Society for Range • SK Federal Council • Agricultural Service Boards of Management • Industrial Vegetation • Transportation Assoc of Alberta • Red River Basin Commission Management Assoc of AB Canada • AB Agriculture and Rural • Kanai Blood Indian Tribe • AB Caucus - House of • MB Conservation Development Commons • Consulting Engineers of SK • AB Lake Management Society • Yorkton Aircraft Service • Engineers Canada • Western Boreal Growth and Yield • Sierra Club • Canadian Institute of Public • AB Irrigation Projects Assoc Association • SE AB Watershed Alliance • Canadian Institute of Forestry Health Inspectors • MB Hydro • Pacific NW Economic Region • Rotary Club of Canmore • National Roundtable on • Mountain Parks Heritage • International Mountaineering Environment and Economy Interpretation Association Federation • Prairie Provinces Water Board • Climate Change Central • SK Forest Centre • APEGGA • Royal SK Museum • Agency Chiefs Tribal Council • Swift Current Creek Watershed • Partners for the SK River Bain • Model Forests • Bow River Basin Council • Banff Town Council Stewards • SK Soil Conservation Assoc • APEGS • Files Hills Qu’Appelle Tribal • City of Grande Prairie, AB • Grande Prairie Chamber of Council • Prairie Improvement Network • Trans Canada Corporation Conference • Old Wives Watershed Assoc • Sturgeon River Watershed Alliance • Taber, AB • SK Environmental Industry • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada • SaskPower • SK Ministry of Advanced Education • TransGas Limited Managers Assoc

January 2018 was the 397 th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average Temperature Anomaly ( ° C) Below Above average average www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801

PAGES2k Consortium. 2017. A global multi-proxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data

Average Minimum Daily Winter Temperature ( ° C), Regina, SK, 1900-2018

GCM: Global Climate Model RCM: Regional Climate Model

GCM and RCM grids

Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada 1971-2000 versus 2040-2069 winter Temperature Change ( ∘ C) Much Warmer Warmer and Wetter Possibly Drier summer Precipitation Change (%) Source: PCIC

Climate Moisture Index Anomaly (mm), May-June-July, western Canada From 11 RCMs wettest driest

Projected Climate Changes in Winter winter Temperature Change ( ∘ C) Source: PCIC Precipitation Change (%)

Projected Climate Changes, CGCM3, from 1961-90 to 2040-69 Temperature Change ( ∘ C) Precipitation Change (%)

July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30

Mean Water Year Flow (m 3 /s) South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat, 1108-2010

North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006 1063 2006

SW Saskatchewan September 2015

Address Information Gaps: “In order to expand The City’s understanding of historical drought conditions it is important to reevaluate historical drought using tree ring analysis historically conducted by the David Sauchyn (University of Saskatchewan [ sic ])”

The South Saskatchewan River Basin - Adaptation to Climate Variability – Phases 1-3 Peach-Athabaca River Basin Adaptation to Climate Variability

EPCOR Utilities Ltd provides water supply and wastewater treatment to 85 communities in western Canada March 2007: Traditional planning would consider flow characteristics of the raw water streams as “knowns” in the system. [ … that is, a stationary climate and water regime ]

On May 2nd [1796] William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, “there being no water in the river.”

900 years of weekly flows, North Saskatchewan River Sauchyn and Ilich, 2017, WRR Water-Year Flow (m 3 /s)

Canadian Association on Water Quality Conference, 21 February 2012, Burlington ON Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Municipal Source Water Supply L. Gyurek, S. Craik, & S. Neufeld, EPCOR Water Services Inc. … a better understanding of natural hydroclimatic variability in surface waters, water utilities including EPCOR are revisiting this assumption of a static water supply . Specifically EPCOR supported collaborative research with the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative … a thousand year record of hydroclimatic variability … This work will allow EPCOR to better assess future risks to water supply and quality and develop risk mitigation strategies.

Neufeld (2016)

December 2014: Source Water Protection Plan To address potential impacts of climate change on water supply, EPCOR partnered with Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) … Understanding that water resources are not a stationary , water management must be adjusted to a hydrological cycle which is increasingly sensitive to the timing and frequency of rainfall events. PARC is continuing to work with EPCOR to refine predictions and probabilities of water flow on a monthly basis in order to inform planning.

Long-term variability and reliability of the flow of the Athabasca River Sauchyn, DJ, St Jacques, J-M, Luckman, BH. 2015 Long-term reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water source for oil sands mining, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 112 no. 41, 12621-12626, DOI10.1073/pnas.1509726112