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P a t t e r n s o f I n f o r m a t i o n D i - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

P a t t e r n s o f I n f o r m a t i o n D i f f u s i o n D a v i d L i b e n - N o w e l l dlibenno@carleton.edu C a r l e t o n C o l l e g e , D e p a r t m e n t o f C


slide-1
SLIDE 1

P a t t e r n s

  • f

I n f

  • r

m a t i

  • n

D i f f u s i

  • n

D a v i d L i b e n

  • N
  • w

e l l

dlibenno@carleton.edu

C a r l e t

  • n

C

  • l

l e g e , D e p a r t m e n t

  • f

C

  • m

p u t e r S c i e n c e J

  • i

n t w

  • r

k w i t h J

  • n

K l e i n b e r g a n d F l a v i

  • C

h i e r i c h e t t i

slide-2
SLIDE 2

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I d e a s , d i s e a s e , i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

, j

  • k

e s s p r e a d c

  • n

t i n u a l l y v i a t h e g l

  • b

a l s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k .

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SLIDE 3
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SLIDE 4
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SLIDE 5

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I d e a s , d i s e a s e , i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

, j

  • k

e s s p r e a d c

  • n

t i n u a l l y v i a t h e g l

  • b

a l s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k . B u t h

  • w

? A k n

  • w

n b u t t y p i c a l l y u n

  • b

s e r v e d p r

  • c

e s s . H

  • w

c a n w e

  • b

s e r v e i t ?

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SLIDE 6

I d e a s , d i s e a s e , i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

, j

  • k

e s s p r e a d c

  • n

t i n u a l l y v i a t h e g l

  • b

a l s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k . B u t h

  • w

? A k n

  • w

n b u t t y p i c a l l y u n

  • b

s e r v e d p r

  • c

e s s . H

  • w

c a n w e

  • b

s e r v e i t ?

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SLIDE 7
slide-8
SLIDE 8
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SLIDE 9

C l a s s i c v e r s i

  • n

: P e r f

  • r

m d e t a i l e d s t u d y

  • f

d i f f u s i

  • n

a m

  • n

g s m a l l g r

  • u

p

  • f

i n d i v i d u a l s . A l t e r n a t i v e v e r s i

  • n

: M a k e u s e

  • f

a n u n u s u a l e v e n t t h a t m a k e s t h e t y p i c a l l y i n v i s i b l e p a t t e r n s v i s i b l e .

N

  • n

c e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • t

u n a s p r e a d ?

slide-10
SLIDE 10

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

C l a s s i c v e r s i

  • n

: P e r f

  • r

m d e t a i l e d s t u d y

  • f

d i f f u s i

  • n

a m

  • n

g s m a l l g r

  • u

p

  • f

i n d i v i d u a l s . A l t e r n a t i v e v e r s i

  • n

: M a k e u s e

  • f

a n u n u s u a l e v e n t t h a t m a k e s t h e t y p i c a l l y i n v i s i b l e p a t t e r n s v i s i b l e .

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SLIDE 11

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I d e a s , d i s e a s e , i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

, j

  • k

e s s p r e a d c

  • n

t i n u a l l y v i a t h e g l

  • b

a l s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k . B u t h

  • w

?

Wh a t m e c h a n i s m s ? F r

  • m

w h e n c e t h e d a t a ? E m a i l n e t w

  • r

k a t H P [ A d a m i c A d a r 2 3 ]

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SLIDE 12

I n t u i t i

  • n

: g

  • i

n g v i r a l !

S

  • m

e p e

  • p

l e a r e s u s c e p t i b l e t

  • t

h e m e m e ; i t s p r e a d s e x p

  • n

e n t i a l l y f r

  • m

“ p a t i e n t ” t h r

  • u

g h “ s u s c e p t i b l e s ” i n t h e n e t w

  • r

k .

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SLIDE 13

I n t u i t i

  • n

: t h e s m a l l

  • w
  • r

l d p h e n

  • m

e n

  • n

!

T w

  • p

e

  • p

l e c h

  • s

e n a r b i t r a r i l y f r

  • m

t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k a r e c

  • n

n e c t e d b y a s m a l l n u m b e r

  • f

i n t e r m e d i a t e f r i e n d s .

S t a n l e y M i l g r a m [ 1 9 6 7 ] P a r t i c i p a n t s a s k e d t

  • f
  • r

w a r d l e t t e r t

  • n

e f r i e n d .

s

  • u

r c e : r e s i d e n t

  • f

O m a h a , N E t a r g e t : s t

  • c

k b r

  • k

e r n e a r B

  • s

t

  • n

C

  • m

p l e t e d c h a i n s a v e r a g e d 6 h

  • p

s !

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SLIDE 14

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I n t u i t i

  • n

: e x p

  • n

e n t i a l g r

  • w

t h ( “ g

  • i

n g v i r a l ” ) s h

  • r

t c h a i n s ( “ s m a l l

  • w
  • r

l d p h e n

  • m

e n

  • n

” )

slide-15
SLIDE 15

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I n t u i t i

  • n

: e x p

  • n

e n t i a l g r

  • w

t h , s h

  • r

t c h a i n s H

  • w

d

  • w

e t e s t t h e i n t u i t i

  • n

? Wh e r e s d a t a

  • n

t h e s p r e a d

  • f

'

  • n

e i d e a ?

slide-16
SLIDE 16

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e

h t t p : / / w e b . m i t . e d u / n e t w

  • r

k s / i m a g e s / s a r sn e t w

  • r

k . j p g _

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SLIDE 17

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e

h t t p : / / w e b . m i t . e d u / n e t w

  • r

k s / i m a g e s / s a r sn e t w

  • r

k . j p g _

slide-18
SLIDE 18

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e S a m p l i n g h i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s

[ G

  • d

m a n 1 9 6 1 ] [ H e c k a t h

  • r

n 1 9 9 7 ] [ H e c k a t h

  • r

n J e f f r i 2 3 ] . . .

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SLIDE 19

H i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s : J a z z M u s i c i a n s i n N Y C

[ H e c k a t h

  • r

n J e f f r i 2 3 ]

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SLIDE 20

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e S a m p l i n g h i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s I n f e r r e d s p r e a d

  • f

t

  • p

i c s a m

  • n

g b l

  • g

s / e m a i l / T w i t t e r

[ Wu H u b e r m a n A d a m i c T y l e r 2 3 ] [ A d a r Z h a n g A d a m i c L u k

  • s

e 2 4 ] [ A d a m i c A d a r 2 5 ] [ G r u h l G u h a D L N T

  • m

k i n s 2 4 ] [ L e s k

  • v

e c M c G l

  • h
  • n

F a l

  • u

s t

  • s

G l a n c e H u r s t 2 7 ] [ K u m a r M a h d i a n M c G l

  • h
  • n

2 1 ] [ G

  • m

e z

  • R
  • d

r i g u e z L e s k

  • v

e c K r a u s e 2 1 ]

c

  • m

e b a c k t

  • m
  • r

r

  • w

! ←

. . .

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SLIDE 21

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e S a m p l i n g h i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s I n f e r r e d s p r e a d

  • f

t

  • p

i c s a m

  • n

g b l

  • g

s / e m a i l / T w i t t e r Wo r d

  • f

m

  • u

t h / v i r a l m a r k e t i n g

[ G

  • l

d e n b e r g L i b a i M u l l e r 2 1 ] [ L e s k

  • v

e c A d a m i c H u b e r m a n 2 6 ] : p r

  • d

u c t r e c

  • m

m e n d a t i

  • n

s [ I r i b a r e n M

  • r
  • 2

9 ] [ S u n R

  • s

e n n M a r l

  • w

L e n t

  • 2

9 ] : a d

  • p

t i

  • n

i n F a c e b

  • k

f e e d s . . .

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SLIDE 22

V i r a l m a r k e t i n g ( “ l a r g e

  • n

l i n e r e t a i l e r ” )

[ L e s k

  • v

e c A d a m i c H u b e r m a n 2 6 ]

F r i e n d s r e c

  • m

m e n d a t i

  • n

s f

  • r

' O h M y G

  • d

n e s s : M a r a S t r i k e s B a c k

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SLIDE 23

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e S a m p l i n g h i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s I n f e r r e d s p r e a d

  • f

t

  • p

i c s a m

  • n

g b l

  • g

s / e m a i l / T w i t t e r Wo r d

  • f

m

  • u

t h / v i r a l m a r k e t i n g D i g i t a l t r a c e s f r

  • m
  • n

l i n e s

  • c

i a l c

  • m

m u n i t i e s

[ B a k s h y K e r r e r A d a m i c 2 9 ] : c l

  • n

e a b l e a s s e t s i n S e c

  • n

d L i f e [ C h a M i s l

  • v

e G u m m a d i 2 9 ] : F l i c k r f a v

  • r

i t e s [ L e r m a n G h

  • s

h 2 1 ] [ K w a k L e e P a r k M

  • n

2 1 ] : r e t w e e t i n g . . .

slide-24
SLIDE 24

G e s t u r e s i n S e c

  • n

d L i f e

[ B a k s h y K e r r e r A d a m i c 2 9 ]

R e t w e e t s i n T w i t t e r

[ K w a k L e e P a r k M

  • n

2 1 ]

slide-25
SLIDE 25

G e n e r a l l y h a r d t

  • g

e t g e n u i n e , l a r g e

  • s

c a l e d a t a

  • n

a s i n g l e e n t i t y s d i f f u s i

  • n

. '

( B u t i t s g e t t i n g e a s i e r ) ' … D i f f u s i

  • n
  • f

i n n

  • v

a t i

  • n

C

  • n

t a c t t r a c i n g ( e p i d e m i

  • l
  • g

y ) F

  • l

k l

  • r

e S a m p l i n g h i d d e n p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

s I n f e r r e d s p r e a d

  • f

t

  • p

i c s a m

  • n

g b l

  • g

s / e m a i l / T w i t t e r Wo r d

  • f

m

  • u

t h / v i r a l m a r k e t i n g D i g i t a l t r a c e s f r

  • m
  • n

l i n e s

  • c

i a l c

  • m

m u n i t i e s

slide-26
SLIDE 26

E m a i l

  • b

a s e d c h a i n

  • l

e t t e r p e t i t i

  • n

s a s “ t r a c e r s ”

  • f

l a r g e

  • s

c a l e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t h r

  • u

g h t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k . T h e r e s t

  • f

t h i s t a l k :

[ D L N K l e i n b e r g , P N A S 2 8 ]

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SLIDE 27

Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 16:39:51 -0600 From: XXXX <XXXX@mac.com> To: usa@un.int, president@whitehouse.gov Subject: UN Petition UN Petition for Peace Non-essential personnel are now evacuating from the US embassies in the middle east. Was is about to start. It takes is 20% of us to cry out for "NO WAR" to induce further diplomacy, but they say our numbers are more like 2%. US Congress has authorized the President of the US to go to war against Iraq. Please consider this an urgent request. UN Petition for Peace, Stand for Peace. Islam is not the Enemy. War is NOT the Answer. Speak against a THIRD WORLD WAR. The UN is gathering signatures in an effort to avoid a tragic world event. Please COPY (rather than Forward) this e-mail in a new message, sign at the end of the list, and send it to all the people whom you know. If you receive this list with more than 500 names signed, please send a copy of the message to: usa@un.int and president@whitehouse.gov Even if you decide not to sign, please consider forwarding the petition on instead of eliminating it

slide-28
SLIDE 28

“ B e f

  • r

e w e s t a r t ”

( 8 %

  • f

t h e w

  • r

k )

slide-29
SLIDE 29

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

slide-30
SLIDE 30

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

2 ) B u i l d p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e f r

  • m

c

  • p

i e s .

( x , y ) e d g e = x i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d e s y i n s

  • m

e c

  • p

y

slide-31
SLIDE 31

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

2 ) B u i l d p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e f r

  • m

c

  • p

i e s .

( x , y ) e d g e = x i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d e s y i n s

  • m

e c

  • p

y

S

  • m

e v a l u a b l e a n d u n u s u a l f e a t u r e s

  • f

t h e d a t a s e t :

G e n u i n e l a r g e

  • s

c a l e t r a c e

  • f

p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t h r

  • u

g h s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k E a c h c

  • p

y “ l i g h t s u p ” a p a t h t

  • s
  • u

r c e ( 6 5 c

  • p

i e s y i e l d 2 K p e

  • p

l e ! )

slide-32
SLIDE 32

A B C D E F G H

slide-33
SLIDE 33

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J

slide-34
SLIDE 34

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M

slide-35
SLIDE 35

I s t h e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e r e a l l y a t r e e ?

slide-36
SLIDE 36

I s t h e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e r e a l l y a t r e e ?

  • N
  • :

s

  • m

e r e s p

  • n

d t w i c e ( = h a v e 2 p a r e n t s ) . ( R a r e . )

slide-37
SLIDE 37

I s t h e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e r e a l l y a t r e e ?

  • N
  • :

s

  • m

e r e s p

  • n

d t w i c e ( = h a v e 2 p a r e n t s ) . ( R a r e . )

  • A

p p a r e n t l y n

  • t

: m a n y t y p

  • g

r a p h i c a l c h a n g e s . ( F r e q u e n t . )

slide-38
SLIDE 38

C h a n g e y

  • u

c a n b e l i e v e i n :

slide-39
SLIDE 39

C h a n g e y

  • u

c a n b e l i e v e i n :

N

  • n

e s h

  • u

l d d i e b e c a u s e t h e y c a n n

  • t

a f f

  • r

d h e a l t h c a r e . N

  • n

e . . . b e l i e v e s t h a t n

  • n

e s h

  • u

l d d i e b e c a u s e t h e y c a n n

  • t

a f f

  • r

d h e a l t h c a r e , a n d n

  • n

e . . . N

  • n

e s h

  • u

l d d i e b e c a u s e t h e y c a n n

  • t

a f f

  • r

d h e a l t h c a r e , a n d n

  • n

e . . . t h i n k s t h a t n

  • n

e s h

  • u

l d d i e b e c a u s e t h e y c a n n

  • t

a f f

  • r

d h e a l t h c a r e , a n d n

  • n

e . . .

slide-40
SLIDE 40

520 138 17 6 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia 138) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia 137) Name WIthheld, Barcelona, Catalonia

  • 137. Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia

139) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain 147) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Spain 147) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, España 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia & 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Ca talonia 138) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Spain 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Spain 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, SPAIN 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, CATALONIA

# c

  • p

i e s V e r s i

  • n
  • f

t h e n a m e

  • f

t h e s a m e s i g n a t

  • r

y

slide-41
SLIDE 41

I s t h e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e r e a l l y a t r e e ?

  • N
  • :

s

  • m

e r e s p

  • n

d t w i c e ( = h a v e 2 p a r e n t s ) . ( R a r e . )

  • A

p p a r e n t l y n

  • t

: m a n y t y p

  • g

r a p h i c a l c h a n g e s . ( F r e q u e n t . )

  • A

p p a r e n t l y n

  • t

: m a n y l i s t r e a r r a n g e m e n t s . ( O f t e n e n

  • u

g h ! )

slide-42
SLIDE 42

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M

slide-43
SLIDE 43

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M A X C D E F G H

slide-44
SLIDE 44

P

  • i

n t m u t a t i

  • n

: n a m e s r e p l a c e d b y p

  • l

i t i c a l f i g u r e s

slide-45
SLIDE 45

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M A X C D E F G H

slide-46
SLIDE 46

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M A X C D E F G H A E F G H

slide-47
SLIDE 47

P

  • i

n t m u t a t i

  • n

: n a m e s r e p l a c e d b y p

  • l

i t i c a l f i g u r e s I n s e r t i

  • n

/ d e l e t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s m i s s i n g / i n c l u d e d ~

slide-48
SLIDE 48

P

  • i

n t m u t a t i

  • n

: n a m e s r e p l a c e d b y p

  • l

i t i c a l f i g u r e s I n s e r t i

  • n

/ d e l e t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s m i s s i n g / i n c l u d e d ~ D u p l i c a t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

1 n a m e s s

  • m

e t i m e s r e p e a t e d ~

slide-49
SLIDE 49

P

  • i

n t m u t a t i

  • n

: n a m e s r e p l a c e d b y p

  • l

i t i c a l f i g u r e s I n s e r t i

  • n

/ d e l e t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s m i s s i n g / i n c l u d e d ~ D u p l i c a t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

1 n a m e s s

  • m

e t i m e s r e p e a t e d ~ T r a n s p

  • s

i t i

  • n

: t w

  • b

l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s s w a p p e d ~

slide-50
SLIDE 50

P

  • i

n t m u t a t i

  • n

: n a m e s r e p l a c e d b y p

  • l

i t i c a l f i g u r e s I n s e r t i

  • n

/ d e l e t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s m i s s i n g / i n c l u d e d ~ D u p l i c a t i

  • n

: b l

  • c

k s

  • f

1 n a m e s s

  • m

e t i m e s r e p e a t e d ~ T r a n s p

  • s

i t i

  • n

: t w

  • b

l

  • c

k s

  • f

5 n a m e s s w a p p e d ~ H y b r i d i z a t i

  • n

: t w

  • l

i s t s i n t e r l e a v e d i n t h i r d l i s t ( ! )

slide-51
SLIDE 51

I s t h e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e r e a l l y a t r e e ?

  • N
  • :

s

  • m

e r e s p

  • n

d t w i c e ( = h a v e 2 p a r e n t s ) . ( R a r e . )

  • A

p p a r e n t l y n

  • t

: m a n y t y p

  • g

r a p h i c a l c h a n g e s . ( F r e q u e n t . )

  • A

p p a r e n t l y n

  • t

: m a n y l i s t r e a r r a n g e m e n t s . ( O f t e n e n

  • u

g h ! )

137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Catalonia 147) Name Withheld, Barcelona, Spain 137) Name Withheld, Barcelona, España

slide-52
SLIDE 52

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

2 ) B u i l d p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e f r

  • m

c

  • p

i e s .

( x , y ) e d g e = x i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d e s y i n s

  • m

e c

  • p

y

slide-53
SLIDE 53

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

2 ) B u i l d p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

g r a p h G f r

  • m

c

  • p

i e s .

( x , y ) e d g e = x i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d e s y i n s

  • m

e c

  • p

y t r e a t n a m e s w i t h i n s m a l l e d i t d i s t a n c e a s “ s a m e ”

slide-54
SLIDE 54

1 ) Q u e r y s e a r c h e n g i n e s t

  • f

i n d c

  • p

i e s

  • f

p e t i t i

  • n

s .

( G

  • t

6 5 d i s t i n c t c

  • p

i e s , 2 K n a m e s . ) ~

2 ) B u i l d p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

g r a p h G f r

  • m

c

  • p

i e s .

( x , y ) e d g e = x i m m e d i a t e l y p r e c e d e s y i n s

  • m

e c

  • p

y t r e a t n a m e s w i t h i n s m a l l e d i t d i s t a n c e a s “ s a m e ”

3 ) D e l e t e t h e f e w e s t e d g e s p

  • s

s i b l e f r

  • m

G t

  • f
  • r

m a t r e e T ; p r u n e u n s u p p

  • r

t e d n

  • d

e s .

[ E d m

  • n

d s 1 9 6 4 “ m a x w e i g h t s p a n n i n g a r b

  • r

e s c e n c e ” ]

r e a l l y : d e l e t e “ l i g h t e s t ” s e t

  • f

e d g e s t

  • f
  • r

m T , u s i n g n u m b e r

  • f

c

  • p

i e s c

  • n

t a i n i n g ( x , y ) a s e d g e w e i g h t .

I m p a c t i s s m a l l ; 9 7 % e d g e s r e m a i n i n t a c t . >

slide-55
SLIDE 55

A B C D E F G H A B C D E F I J A B C D K L M A X C D E F G H A E F G H

slide-56
SLIDE 56
slide-57
SLIDE 57
slide-58
SLIDE 58
slide-59
SLIDE 59

C e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

:

H

  • w

d

  • i

d e a s s p r e a d ?

I n t u i t i

  • n

: e x p

  • n

e n t i a l g r

  • w

t h ( “ g

  • i

n g v i r a l ” ) s h

  • r

t c h a i n s ( “ s m a l l

  • w
  • r

l d p h e n

  • m

e n

  • n

” ) S

  • w

e d e x p e c t : ' – s m a l l d e p t h ( s m a l l w

  • r

l d ) – h i g h b r a n c h i n g ( 1 s t

  • 1

s

  • f

f r i e n d s ) – s h a l l

  • w

& w i d e p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e

slide-60
SLIDE 60
slide-61
SLIDE 61
slide-62
SLIDE 62
slide-63
SLIDE 63
slide-64
SLIDE 64
slide-65
SLIDE 65
slide-66
SLIDE 66
slide-67
SLIDE 67
slide-68
SLIDE 68

E x p e c t a t i

  • n

s : s h a l l

  • w

/ w i d e t r e e w i t h h i g h b r a n c h i n g f a c t

  • r

( u n l e s s i t d i e s

  • u

t q u i c k l y )

slide-69
SLIDE 69

E x p e c t a t i

  • n

s : s h a l l

  • w

/ w i d e t r e e w i t h h i g h b r a n c h i n g f a c t

  • r

( u n l e s s i t d i e s

  • u

t q u i c k l y ) R e a l i t y :

  • t

h e p r

  • c

e s s d

  • e

s n t d i e

  • u

t q u i c k l y ' 2 K n

  • d

e s i n p

  • s

t e d c

  • p

i e s

  • t

h e t r e e i s v e r y d e e p . m e d i a n n

  • d

e d e p t h 2 8 8 ~

  • t

h e t r e e i s v e r y n a r r

  • w

. 9 4 %

  • f

n

  • d

e s h a v e e x a c t l y 1 c h i l d >

slide-70
SLIDE 70

M

  • d

e l i n g a n d I m p l i c a t i

  • n

s

( 2 %

  • f

t h e w

  • r

k )

slide-71
SLIDE 71

M

  • d

e l i n g g

  • a

l s : “ g

  • d

” t r e e s : l a r g e m e d i a n d e p t h , s m a l l w i d t h , h i g h s i n g l e

  • c

h i l d f r a c t i

  • n

G

  • a

l :

s i m p l e , p l a u s i b l e g e n e r a t i v e m

  • d

e l t h a t r e p r

  • d

u c e s t h e

  • b

s e r v e d f e a t u r e s .

slide-72
SLIDE 72

I n g r e d i e n t s f

  • r

a m

  • d

e l :

– s t a r t f r

  • m

r a n d

  • m

s e e d ( p e r s

  • n

i n t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k ) . – r e c i p i e n t s c a n d i s c a r d

  • r

f

  • r

w a r d .

d i s c a r d r a t e = . 6 5 [ D

  • d

d s M

  • h

a m a d Wa t t s 2 3 ]

slide-73
SLIDE 73

I n g r e d i e n t s f

  • r

a m

  • d

e l :

– s t a r t f r

  • m

r a n d

  • m

s e e d ( p e r s

  • n

i n t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k ) . – r e c i p i e n t s c a n d i s c a r d

  • r

f

  • r

w a r d .

d i s c a r d r a t e = . 6 5 [ D

  • d

d s M

  • h

a m a d Wa t t s 2 3 ]

– f

  • r

w a r d e r s c a n “ p

  • s

t ” w i t h s

  • m

e p r

  • b

a b i l i t y ; p a t h t

  • r
  • t

i s l i t u p .

slide-74
SLIDE 74

I n g r e d i e n t s f

  • r

a m

  • d

e l :

– s t a r t f r

  • m

r a n d

  • m

s e e d ( p e r s

  • n

i n t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k ) . – r e c i p i e n t s c a n d i s c a r d

  • r

f

  • r

w a r d .

d i s c a r d r a t e = . 6 5 [ D

  • d

d s M

  • h

a m a d Wa t t s 2 3 ]

– f

  • r

w a r d e r s c a n “ p

  • s

t ” w i t h s

  • m

e p r

  • b

a b i l i t y ; p a t h t

  • r
  • t

i s l i t u p . – r u n u n t i l f i z z l e

  • r

t r e e s i z e = I r a q .

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SLIDE 75

I n g r e d i e n t s f

  • r

a m

  • d

e l :

– s t a r t f r

  • m

r a n d

  • m

s e e d ( p e r s

  • n

i n t h e s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k ) . – r e c i p i e n t s c a n d i s c a r d

  • r

f

  • r

w a r d .

d i s c a r d r a t e = . 6 5 [ D

  • d

d s M

  • h

a m a d Wa t t s 2 3 ]

– f

  • r

w a r d e r s c a n “ p

  • s

t ” w i t h s

  • m

e p r

  • b

a b i l i t y ; p a t h t

  • r
  • t

i s l i t u p . – r u n u n t i l f i z z l e

  • r

t r e e s i z e = I r a q . T h e n c

  • m

p a r e ( n

  • n
  • f

i z z l i n g )

  • b

s e r v a b l e t r e e s t a t i s t i c s t

  • r

e a l d a t a .

slide-76
SLIDE 76

T e s t m

  • d

e l s u s i n g r e a l s

  • c

i a l n e t w

  • r

k d a t a ( 4 . 4 M L i v e J

  • u

r n a l n

  • d

e s ) .

T h e e p i d e m i c m

  • d

e l :

E v e r y n

  • n
  • d

i s c a r d i n g n

  • d

e f

  • r

w a r d s t

  • a

l l L J f r i e n d s , a n d p

  • s

t s w i t h s

  • m

e p r

  • b

a b i l i t y p .

T e r r i b l e ! M

  • d

e l # 1 : m e c h a n i s m s / r e a l n e t w

  • r

k s .

[ D L N K l e i n b e r g 2 8 ]

slide-77
SLIDE 77

M

  • d

e l # 1 : m e c h a n i s m s / r e a l n e t w

  • r

k s .

[ D L N K l e i n b e r g 2 8 ]

Wh a t g

  • e

s w r

  • n

g w i t h e p i d e m i c s ? R e a l l y a b

  • u

t s i n g l e

  • c

h i l d f r a c t i

  • n

:

9 5 %

  • f

n

  • d

e s i n I r a q t r e e h a v e

  • n

e c h i l d .

H

  • w

?

( L

  • k

s l i k e a D F S t r e e , n

  • t

a B F S t r e e ! )

slide-78
SLIDE 78

M

  • d

e l # 1 : m e c h a n i s m s / r e a l n e t w

  • r

k s .

[ D L N K l e i n b e r g 2 8 ]

Wh a t g

  • e

s w r

  • n

g w i t h e p i d e m i c s ? R e a l l y a b

  • u

t s i n g l e

  • c

h i l d f r a c t i

  • n

:

9 5 %

  • f

n

  • d

e s i n I r a q t r e e h a v e

  • n

e c h i l d .

H

  • w

?

( L

  • k

s l i k e a D F S t r e e , n

  • t

a B F S t r e e ! )

M

  • s

t p e

  • p

l e s e n d t

  • k 1

> f r i e n d s ?

A l m

  • s

t e v e r y

  • n

e h a s e x a c t l y k

  • 1

d i s c a r d i n g f r i e n d s ?

M

  • r

e d i s c a r d e r s f i z z l e . → F e w e r d i s c a r d e r s n

  • t

e n

  • u

g h s i n g l e

  • c

h i l d n

  • d

e s . →

slide-79
SLIDE 79
  • S

e r i a l i z e c l i q u e y c

  • m

m u n i t i e s u s i n g b r

  • a

d d i s t r i b u t i

  • n
  • f

d e l a y i n r e s p

  • n

s e t i m e s .

M

  • d

e l # 1 : m e c h a n i s m s / r e a l n e t w

  • r

k s .

[ D L N K l e i n b e r g 2 8 ]

  • A

l l

  • w

“ r e p l y a l l ” : a f

  • r

w a r d e r c a n

– s e n d t

  • a

l l f r i e n d s ;

  • r

– r e p l y t

  • a

l l c

  • r

e c i p i e n t s . T w

  • p

a r a m e t e r s : p

  • s

t r a t e p ; r e p l y

  • a

l l r a t e b .

slide-80
SLIDE 80

S i m u l a t i

  • n

s : b = . 9 5 p = . 2 2

M

  • d

e l # 1 : m e c h a n i s m s / r e a l n e t w

  • r

k s .

slide-81
SLIDE 81

“ A l l m

  • d

e l s a r e w r

  • n

g , b u t s

  • m

e a r e u s e f u l . ”

– G e

  • r

g e B

  • x
slide-82
SLIDE 82

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

D = d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

f r

  • m

r e a l I r a q t r e e . D e f i n e b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s u s i n g D .

M

  • d

e l # 2 : b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s e s .

slide-83
SLIDE 83

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

M

  • d

e l # 2 : b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s e s .

D = d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

f r

  • m

r e a l I r a q t r e e . D e f i n e b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s u s i n g D .

E [ d e g r e e ] = ( n

  • 1

) / n , s

  • B

P i s b a r e l y s u b c r i t i c a l .

M

  • s

t g e n e r a t e d t r e e s a r e t

  • s

m a l l .

slide-84
SLIDE 84

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

D = d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

f r

  • m

r e a l I r a q t r e e . D e f i n e b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s u s i n g D .

E [ d e g r e e ] = ( n

  • 1

) / n , s

  • B

P i s b a r e l y s u b c r i t i c a l .

M

  • s

t g e n e r a t e d t r e e s a r e t

  • s

m a l l .

M

  • d

e l # 2 : b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s e s .

B u t c

  • n

d i t i

  • n

e d

  • n
  • b

s e r v a b l e t r e e r e a c h i n g I r a q s i z e , s i m u l a t i

  • n

s h

  • w

s d e p t h / w i d t h

  • f

r e a l I r a q t r e e i s t y p i c a l

  • f

t r e e s g e n e r a t e d b y B P .

slide-85
SLIDE 85

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

L e a v e s

  • n

e c e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

: h

  • w

d i d

  • b

s e r v a b l e d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

c

  • m

e t

  • b

e D ?

M

  • d

e l # 2 : b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s e s .

G

  • l

u b / J a c k s

  • n

B r a n c h i n g P r

  • c

e s s M

  • d

e l :

D e f i n e b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s u s i n g r e a l

  • b

s e r v e d d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

D ; c

  • n

d i t i

  • n
  • n

r e a c h i n g I r a q s i z e .

slide-86
SLIDE 86

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

L e a v e s

  • n

e c e n t r a l q u e s t i

  • n

: h

  • w

d i d

  • b

s e r v a b l e d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

c

  • m

e t

  • b

e D ? O n e w a y :

[ G

  • l

u b J a c k s

  • n

2 1 ]

F

  • r

w a r d t

  • f

i x e d n u m b e r

  • f

f r i e n d s w i t h a p p r

  • p

r i a t e d i s c a r d / p

  • s

t i n g r a t e .

R

  • u

g h l y , e p i d e m i c m

  • d

e l w i t h

  • u

t a n u n d e r l y i n g n e t w

  • r

k .

M

  • d

e l # 2 : b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s e s .

G

  • l

u b / J a c k s

  • n

B r a n c h i n g P r

  • c

e s s M

  • d

e l :

D e f i n e b r a n c h i n g p r

  • c

e s s u s i n g r e a l

  • b

s e r v e d d e g r e e d i s t r i b u t i

  • n

D ; c

  • n

d i t i

  • n
  • n

r e a c h i n g I r a q s i z e .

slide-87
SLIDE 87

M

  • d

e l # 3 : i t s a l l a b

  • u

t

  • b

s e r v a t i

  • n

. '

[ C h i e r i c h e t t i K l e i n b e r g D L N 2 1 1 ]

C

  • n

s i d e r a n a r b i t r a r y u n d e r l y i n g t r e e T . L e t e a c h n

  • d

e e x p

  • s

e i t s e l f i n d e p e n d e n t l y w i t h p r

  • b

a b i l i t y p , r e v e a l i n g i t s p a t h t

  • r
  • t

. L e t T [ p ] d e n

  • t

e r e s u l t :

  • b

s e r v e d t r e e ( r a n d

  • m

) .

slide-88
SLIDE 88

( I n

  • t

h e r w

  • r

d s , t h e t r e e n e c e s s a r i l y l

  • k

s t h i s w a y b e c a u s e

  • f

t h e w a y w e

  • b

s e r v e i t . )

P r

  • f

i d e a : w i t h h i g h p r

  • b

a b i l i t y , t h e e x p

  • s

u r e p r

  • c

e s s r e v e a l s m a n y m

  • r

e i n t e r n a l n

  • d

e s t h a n l e a v e s (

  • r

b r a n c h p

  • i

n t s ) .

M

  • d

e l # 3 : i t s a l l a b

  • u

t

  • b

s e r v a t i

  • n

. '

[ C h i e r i c h e t t i K l e i n b e r g D L N 2 1 1 ]

T h e

  • r

e m : I f T 's m a x d e g r e e i s b

  • u

n d e d a n d p i s s m a l l e n

  • u

g h , T [ p ] s s i n g l e

  • c

h i l d f r a c t i

  • n

i s ' 1 –

  • (

1 ) .

slide-89
SLIDE 89

M

  • d

e l # 3 : i t s a l l a b

  • u

t

  • b

s e r v a t i

  • n

. '

[ C h i e r i c h e t t i K l e i n b e r g D L N 2 1 1 ]

We h a v e a s t r a n g e w i n d

  • w

( t h e

  • b

s e r v e d t r e e ) i n t

  • t

r u e s p r e a d i n g p r

  • c

e s s . B u t e v e r y t h i n g i n t e r e s t i n g i s a b

  • u

t w h a t s i n v i s i b l e ( t h e ' u n

  • b

s e r v e d t r e e ) . Wh a t c a n w e s a y ?

slide-90
SLIDE 90

E s t i m a t e p a s f r a c t i

  • n
  • f

i n t e r n a l n

  • d

e s

  • f

T [ p ] t h a t a r e e x p

  • s

e d . E s t i m a t e T | | a s ( # e x p

  • s

e r s / p ) .

F

  • r

I r a q : 1 8 K n

  • d

e s i n

T [ p ] → 1 7 3 K n

  • d

e s i n T .

M

  • d

e l # 3 : i t s a l l a b

  • u

t

  • b

s e r v a t i

  • n

. '

[ C h i e r i c h e t t i K l e i n b e r g D L N 2 1 1 ]

T h e

  • r

e m 2 : I f T 's m a x d e g r e e i s b

  • u

n d e d , w e c a n a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e |T f r

  • m

| |T [ p ] , e v e n | w i t h

  • u

t k n

  • w

i n g p .

slide-91
SLIDE 91

1 ) f i n d i n g d a t a

  • n

s p r e a d

  • f

a s i n g l e p i e c e

  • f

i n f

  • r

m a t i

  • n

i s h a r d . 2 ) p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e h a s u n e x p e c t e d s t r u c t u r e . 3 ) w e c a n e x p l a i n t h a t s t r u c t u r e w i t h a m

  • d

e l .

slide-92
SLIDE 92

1 ) f i n d i n g d a t a

  • n

s p r e a d

  • f

a s i n g l e p i e c e

  • f

i n f

  • r

m a t i

  • n

i s h a r d . ( c h a i n l e t t e r s ! ) 2 ) p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e h a s u n e x p e c t e d s t r u c t u r e . ( n a r r

  • w

, d e e p , a n d s t r i n g y ! ) 3 ) w e c a n e x p l a i n t h a t s t r u c t u r e w i t h a m

  • d

e l . ( w i t h a m

  • d

e l t h a t i s w r

  • n

g ! ) E v e n t

h e s a m p l i n g p r

  • c

e s s i s

  • v

e r s i m p l i f i e d ; p

  • s

t i n g d e c i s i

  • n

s d

  • n

t s e e m i n d e p e n d e n t . '

slide-93
SLIDE 93

1 ) f i n d i n g d a t a

  • n

s p r e a d

  • f

a s i n g l e p i e c e

  • f

i n f

  • r

m a t i

  • n

i s h a r d . ( c h a i n l e t t e r s ! ) 2 ) p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

t r e e h a s u n e x p e c t e d s t r u c t u r e . ( n a r r

  • w

, d e e p , a n d s t r i n g y ! ) 3 ) w e c a n e x p l a i n t h a t s t r u c t u r e w i t h a m

  • d

e l . ( w i t h a m

  • d

e l t h a t i s w r

  • n

g ! ) E v e n t

h e s a m p l i n g p r

  • c

e s s i s

  • v

e r s i m p l i f i e d ; p

  • s

t i n g d e c i s i

  • n

s d

  • n

t s e e m i n d e p e n d e n t . '

4 ) w h a t e l s e c a n w e l e a r n ? ( s i z e

  • f

u n d e r l y i n g p r

  • p

a g a t i

  • n

? A n d ? ? )

slide-94
SLIDE 94

P a t t e r n s

  • f

I n f

  • r

m a t i

  • n

D i f f u s i

  • n

D a v i d L i b e n

  • N
  • w

e l l

dlibenno@carleton.edu

C a r l e t

  • n

C

  • l

l e g e , D e p a r t m e n t

  • f

C

  • m

p u t e r S c i e n c e

T h a n k y

  • u

!