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Outlines 1 GEMMES Project 2 The Keen (1995) Model 3 Coping - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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T HE GEMMES RESEARCH PROGRAM Les Houches, Winter 2018 March 08, 2018 Gal Giraud #WorldInCommon AGENCE FRANAISE DE DVELOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANAISE DE DEVLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT

  1. T HE GEMMES RESEARCH PROGRAM Les Houches, Winter 2018 March 08, 2018 Gaël Giraud #WorldInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 0/45 AGENCY

  2. � Outlines 1 GEMMES Project 2 The Keen (1995) Model 3 Coping with the Collapse Target achievements March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 1/45

  3. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  4. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES GEneral Monetary March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  5. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES GEneral Monetary Multisectoral March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  6. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES GEneral Monetary Multisectoral Macrodynamics March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  7. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES GEneral Monetary Multisectoral Macrodynamics for the Ecological Shifts March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  8. � GEMMES Overview of the research project GEMMES GEneral Monetary Multisectoral Macrodynamics for the Ecological Shifts March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 2/45

  9. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Goodwin March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  10. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Goodwin Goodwin-Keen March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  11. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  12. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  13. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  14. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  15. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Speculation Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  16. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inequalities Speculation Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  17. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inequalities Speculation Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Multisectoral Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  18. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inequalities Speculation Climate feedback backloop Inventories Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Multisectoral Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  19. � GEMMES Overview of the research project Inequalities Speculation Climate feedback backloop Inventories Open economy Goodwin Goodwin-Keen Prices Multisectoral Government Banks March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 3/45

  20. � Outlines 1 GEMMES Project 2 The Keen (1995) Model 3 Coping with the Collapse Target achievements March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 4/45

  21. � The Keen (1995) Model Private debt matters Nonfinancial Business; Credit Market Instruments; Liability, Level/Gross Domestic Product (left) Civilian Unemployment Rate (right) 11.2 5 10.4 4 9.6 3 8.8 2 % Chg. of (Bil. of $/Bil. of $) 8.0 1 Percent 7.2 0 6.4 -1 5.6 -2 4.8 -3 4.0 -4 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 fred.stlouisfed.org myf.red/g/7Dv0 Figure: Change in private debt and employment rate in the United States – Period 1990-2010. March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 5/45

  22. � The Keen (1995) Model Private debt matters March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 6/45

  23. � The Keen (1995) Model Private debt matters March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 7/45

  24. � The Keen (1995) Model Overview of the model Since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the ideas of Hyman Minsky around the intrinsic instability of a monetary market economy have experienced a signifi- cant revival. 1 . Goodwin (1967): Lotka-Volterra logic of the wage share and the employ- ment rate. March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 8/45

  25. � The Keen (1995) Model Overview of the model Since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the ideas of Hyman Minsky around the intrinsic instability of a monetary market economy have experienced a signifi- cant revival. 1 . Goodwin (1967): Lotka-Volterra logic of the wage share and the employ- ment rate. 2 . Keen (1995): a Minsky moment can occur. March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 8/45

  26. � The Keen (1995) Model Overview of the model Since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the ideas of Hyman Minsky around the intrinsic instability of a monetary market economy have experienced a signifi- cant revival. 1 . Goodwin (1967): Lotka-Volterra logic of the wage share and the employ- ment rate. 2 . Keen (1995): a Minsky moment can occur. 3 . Investment financed by endogenous money creation (discussion with Nguyen- Huu-Pottier (2017)). March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 8/45

  27. � The Keen (1995) Model The model λ : the employment rate. λ := L N . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 9/45

  28. � The Keen (1995) Model The model λ : the employment rate. λ := L N . L : the labor force, and N : the total population. ˙ N N = β. March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 9/45

  29. � The Keen (1995) Model The model λ : the employment rate. λ := L N . L : the labor force, and N : the total population. ˙ N N = β. a : the labor productivity. ˙ a a = α. March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 9/45

  30. � The Keen (1995) Model The model λ : the employment rate. λ := L N . L : the labor force, and N : the total population. ˙ N N = β. a : the labor productivity. ˙ a a = α. w : the wage per worker, W = wL : the total wage, ω : the wage share ad Y : the production. ω = W Y = wL aL = w a March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 9/45

  31. � The Keen (1995) Model The model K : the stock of capital. ˙ K = I − δ K . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 10/45

  32. � The Keen (1995) Model The model K : the stock of capital. ˙ K = I − δ K . The Leontief production function � K � min Y = ν , aL K = ν = aL . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 10/45

  33. � The Keen (1995) Model The model D : the aggregate debt. ˙ D = I − Π . with Π := Y − W − rD : the real profit of the firm, and r : the interest rate. π : the profit-to-production ratio. π = Π Y . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 11/45

  34. � The Keen (1995) Model The model D : the aggregate debt. ˙ D = I − Π . with Π := Y − W − rD : the real profit of the firm, and r : the interest rate. π : the profit-to-production ratio. π = Π Y . d : the debt-production ratio. d = D Y . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 11/45

  35. � The Keen (1995) Model Aggregate behaviours � The Short-term Phillips Curve (Mankiw, 2010). ˙ w w = φ ( λ ) . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 12/45

  36. � The Keen (1995) Model Aggregate behaviours � The Short-term Phillips Curve (Mankiw, 2010). ˙ w w = φ ( λ ) . � The Investment Function : it evolves positively with the profit share. I Y = κ ( π ) . March 08, 2018 #WolrdInCommon AGENCE FRANÇAISE DE DEVÉLOPPEMENT | FRENCH DEVELOPMENT AGENCY 12/45

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