Outline Overview of TraNSIT Background and how it works - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IPWEA - Southern Roads Symposium Toowoomba, 29-31 May 2018

TraNSIT - Modelling of heavy vehicle transport on low volume roads

Stephen McFallan – CSIRO Land and Water

Outline

• Overview of TraNSIT
• Background and how it works
• Commodities and supply chains
• Case studies – road upgrade/diversions
• Current projects and future developments

Transport Network Strategic Investment Tool - TraNSIT

What is special about TraNSIT?

 Comprehensive mapping of All Australia’s agriculture and forestry freight  Insights into freight task, bottlenecks and inefficiencies.

What can TraNSIT do for you?

 Inform infrastructure investment and regulatory changes - evidence based  Considers soft (eg. policy, regulation)  and hard infrastructure (bridge, roads, rail, hubs, processing plant…)  Shows impacts on all agricultural and forestry enterprises and across the supply chain

Transport Network Strategic Investment Tool - TraNSIT

• A modular transport network analysis tool
• Maps and optimises every vehicle movement
• Across the supply chain - farm – storage - processing – market
• Ground up road and rail transport costing
• Includes associated costs: food losses; driver fatigue; etc
• Beginnings and rationale
• Initially developed for northern Australia beef in 2013
• Long distance transport and vulnerable supply chains
• Infrastructure investment - holistically evaluate best options
• Extended to all agriculture through the Agricultural

Competitiveness White Paper

TraNSIT Overview

• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Mining/fuel/construction…
• Map products
• Visualisation tool
• Web based TraNSIT Analytics…

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Cost per km ($) Speed (km/h Semitrailer_Full B-Double_Full Type 1_Full Type 2_Full Semitrailer_Empty B-Double_Empty Type 1_Empty Type 2_Empty Semitrailer_Unseal road B-Double_Unseal road Type 1_Unsealed road Type 2_Unseal road

Vehicle and trains

• Costs model
• Optimal vehicle selection
• PBS 1
• PBS 2a
• PBS 3a
• PBS 4a

Network

• Roads and features
• Rail lines and load points

Commodities

• Enterprise locations
• Demands or supplies

Calculation

• Vehicle route optimisation

TraNSIT features

• Commercial Network

Editable for upgrade/changed road scenarios

• Continuous truck models with editable parameters

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Cost per km ($) Speed (km/h Semitrailer_Full B-Double_Full Type 1_Full Type 2_Full Semitrailer_Empty B-Double_Empty Type 1_Empty Type 2_Empty Semitrailer_Unseal road B-Double_Unseal road Type 1_Unsealed road Type 2_Unseal road

Vehicle and trains

• Costs model
• Optimal vehicle selection
• PBS 1
• PBS 2a
• PBS 3a
• PBS 4a

Network

• Roads and features
• Rail lines and load points

Commodities

• Enterprise locations
• Demands or supplies

Calculation

• Vehicle route optimisation

TraNSIT features TRC

TraNSIT route optimisation

Origin Destination

TraNSIT route optimisation by vehicle type

TraNSIT Cost Model Road Access Class T2 T1 BD ST Model 1 T2 T1 ST ST Model 2 T2 BD BD ST Model 3 T1 T1 ST ST Model 4 BD BD BD ST Model 5 ST ST ST ST Model 6 HR HR HR HR Cap Head (Beef) 120 80 60 40 Cap Tonne^ 81 54 40 27 Length (m) 53.5 36.5 26 19

T2 - Type 2 T1 - Type 1 BD - B Double ST - Semi Trailer HR - Heavy rigid ^ Depends on bulk density and axel load limits The figure shows the

• ptimal route may be vary

depending on vehicle type selected at the origin

Supply chains

Pigs Cattle, Sheep, Goats Grains

Distribution Centre Export depot Abattoir Supermarket 0.2 m 0.6mt Saleyard Feedlot Rail point 5.3m 0.4m 2.4m 0.24m Property Port Port 0.75m 0.75m 3.0m 2.7m 2.3m 1.1mt 0.03m

Paddock Storage Storage at Port Flour Mills 43m Feedlot or Feed Mill Livestock enterprises 31m 2.6m 9.3m

Distribution Centre Property Domestic Abattoir Supermarket 1.1m 0.1mt 0.2mt Export Abattoir Saleyard Port 0.6m 0.1m 4.2m 0.04m

m- million tonnes

Enterprises (agri-businesses, silos, gins, abattoirs, sawmills,

supermarkets etc.)

> 230,000 enterprises

Enterprises (agri-businesses, silos, gins, abattoirs, sawmills,

supermarkets etc.) TRC – post production

Application to agriculture across Australia

• Beef roads - $100m investment + co contributions of at

least 25%

• Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper
• Adapted to over 30 commodities
• Cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens, dairy products, grains, cotton,

rice, sugar, horticulture, stock feed (98% of Australian agriculture)

• 225,000 enterprises
• Over 5 million vehicle trips and 10,000 rail trips routed
• 332,000 supply chain paths
• Additional 165,000 plantations and enterprises for forestry

Average vehicles per year

Beef, Grains, Dairy, Rice, Sugar, Cotton, Horticulture, Pigs, Poultry Sheep, Goats, Stock feed Buffalo

Average rail usage per year

Beef, Grains, Sugar, Cotton

Average vehicles per year - Beef

Average vehicles per year - Grains

Average vehicles per year – Sheep and Goats

Average vehicles by road segment- Newell Highway

Grain movements to Port of Brisbane

Modelled annual transport costs

Road ($m) Rail ($m) Road CO2 (tonnes) Beef# $572.4 $31.6 244,082 Grain $2,149.7 $487.3 862,184 Pigs $29.0 11,156 Rice $134.2 55,437 Dairy $881.7 337,294 Sugar $52.2 $9.9 16,174 Sheep/Goats $221.8 85,883 Cotton $76.9 $13.2 36,385 Horticulture $617.8 256,295 Post Processing* $249.7 98,080 Mixed (DC to Market)^ $284.5 109,157 Poultry $28.2 8,766 Total $5,298.3 $542.1 2,120,893

#including a small number (20,000 head) of Buffalo

*includes boxed beef, chicken, lamb, pork to domestic markets and port ^mixture of horticulture and post processed commodities between DC’s and supermarkets These represent the total transport costs across the supply chain from paddock to domestic market (except grain) or port.

Modelled transport costs – grain supply chain

Paddock Storage Storage at Port Flour Mills $938m $21.76/t $201m $28.03/t Feedlot or Feed Mill Livestock enterprises $625m $447m $44.01/t $26.5/t $35.8m $34.6/t $40.4m $27.8/t $348m $37.29/t Australia

Black – road transport Red – Rail transport

Modelled transport costs – grain supply chain

Paddock Storage Storage at Port Flour Mills $162m $16.75/t Feedlot or Feed Mill $19m $110m $59/t $35.83/t $17.19m $30.2/t $40.4m $27.8/t $133m $32.67/t Paddock Storage Storage at Port Flour Mills $77m $18.87/t Feedlot or Feed Mill $23.3m $41.3m $42.4/t $40.89/t $12.0m $75/t $117m $36.11/t

NSW Queensland

Black – road transport Red – Rail transport

Applications

• New facilities
• e.g. freight hubs
• Impact of disruption to network
• Future production scenarios
• Road upgrades
• Improved rail facilities
• New road links
• Regulatory changes
• Driver fatigue, road pricing, tolls, biosecurity

Supply chain paths – out of Moree

Supply chain paths – through Moree

Upgrade of Grain Storage Facility–

Extra vehicles along each road segment

Pinch points for Grain Movements – to Hubs

Average vehicles per year TRC (TSRC open)

Beef, Grains, Dairy, Rice, Sugar, Cotton, Horticulture, Pigs, Poultry Sheep, Goats, Stock feed Buffalo

Applications over last 18 months

• Northern Australia White Paper Initiative
• $100 million Beef Roads Programme
• Various road upgrade and last mile bottlenecks
• Road sealing, volumetric loading, road flood proofing, HPV
• Impact of processor disruption – Kingaroy pork abattoir
• Providing baseline analysis to state agencies
• Applications with Temora and Toowoomba councils
• Toowoomba Second Range Crossing
• Impact of NSW floods in late 2016
• Shifting agriculture from road to rail
• New feedlots
• ARTC - freight hubs

Current/Future developments of TraNSIT

• Technical: adding sea and air transport, more detailed

transport cost models, visualisation interface

• New projects e.g.
• Capacity constraints and inefficiencies in the livestock export chain – MLA
• ARTC – Freight hubs
• Toowoomba Regional Council
• TraNSIT Web
• Enable agencies to produce and test scenarios
• Link with rainfall and flood hazards
• Add a predictive capability
• e.g. Freight task for future grain and livestock forecasts
• Extension to broader freight transport
• South East Asia – ACIAR, DFAT
• Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos

Visualisation Tool

Vehicle and trains and ships

• Costs model
• Optimal vehicle selection

Network

• Roads and features
• Shipping lines
• Rail lines and load points

Commodities

• Enterprise locations
• Demands or supplies

Calculation

• Vehicle route optimization
• Congestion

TraNSIT Indonesia

Modelled cost (Rp/km) per travel speed – sealed roads Modelled cost (Rp/km)– unsealed roads

Type 100 km/h 60 km/h 20km/h 60 km/h 20km/h Suzuki Carry 2,988 3,363 5,915 3,525 6,301 Colt Diesel 4,960 5,389 8,647 5,686 9,302 8 Tonne Fuso 6,806 7,308 11,298 7,768 13,162 Semi-Trailer 9,839 10,428 16,390 11,380 18,984

Suzuki Carry Colt Diesel Fuso Semi Trailer 6 axel

For further information contact

Stephen McFallan CSIRO Land & Water 07 3833 5733 Stephen.McFallan@csiro.au

http://www.csiro.au/TraNSIT

CSIRO TraNSIT team Andrew Higgins Stephen McFallan Caroline Bruce Oswald Marinoni Adam McKeown Chris Chilcott Libby Pinkard Xavier Ho

Type 2 upgrade from Barringun Qld to Nyngan and Dubbo

Path Semi-trailers equivalent No benefited from upgrade Annual savings Barringun to Nyngan 16,761 2,969 $192,372 Plus Nyngan to Dubbo 65,912 27,164 $3,602,000

Case Study – NSW floods

Forbes Shire

Case Study –NSW floods

Forbes Shire – Impact on vehicle routes and freight flows

NSW floods – Impact on transport

Forbes Shire

Commodity Annual Trailers Trailers Sept Trailers Oct Annual additional transport costs Additional transport costs in flood period Additional cost per trailer Additional cost per tonne or head Beef 3,364 312 310 $1.1 m $0.2 m $345 $6.90 Cotton 2,383 $0.06 m $0 $0 $0.00 Dairy 180 20 $0.03 m $0.03 m $165 $5.68 Grains 11,662 144 187 $4.1 m $0.1 m $346 $12.81 Horticulture 16,570 1,288 1,132 $2.7 m $0.4 m $158 $6.33 Processed 24,526 2,301 1,551 $4.9 m $0.8 m $202 $9.20 Rice 715 1 1 $0.09 m $0.0002m $130 $4.48 Sheep & Goat 10,062 678 864 $2.8 m $0.4 m $286 $1.43 Total 69,462 4,724 4,065 $16 m $2 m

Toowoomba Second Range Crossing

Toowoomba Second Range Crossing –

Savings per annum

Commodity Total Savings Semi-Trailer Equivalents (full loads) Savings per Trailer (one way) Savings per tonne or head transported Beef $1,694,400 27,385 $30.94 $1.55 Chicken $1,137 5,914 $0.10 $0.00 Cotton $432,253 10,507 $20.57 $4.78 Dairy $16,306 540 $15.10 $1.32 Grains $1,501,357 39,483 $19.02 $1.41 Horticulture $522,185 13,575 $19.24 $1.54 Pigs $25,756 1,212 $10.63 $0.11 Post-Processed $1,206,992 31,759 $19.00 $1.90 Sheep/goat $2,591 270 $4.80 $0.05 Total $5,402,976 130,645 $20.68

Toowoomba Second Range Crossing

Change in freight volumes after construction

Case study – move all Rail to Road

Commodity Existing Rail costs ($m) Cost if transported by Road ($m) Difference Beef $36.6# $10.9

• $25.8

Grains $487.3 $696.1 $208.8 Cotton $15.7# $12.5

• $3.2

Sugar $9.9 $12.1 $2.2 Total $552 $732 $180

# Includes $5.0m in road transport costs to rail siding ##Includes $2.5m in road transport costs to rail siding

Case study – move all Rail to Road

Changes in road freight volumes

Modelled supply chain

Plantation forestry

Chips Chips 2.2 m m3 Plantations Fire wood Timber export Saw Mill Panel Mill MDF Pulp Mill Paper Mill Posts and Poles Ply Mill 29 m m3 42 m m3 Chip and pole export 240 m m3 13 m m3 39 m m3 289 m m3 42 m m3 4.8 m m3 2.0 m m3 81 m m3

Forestry supply chain – HQ Plantations

Including forest trails

Application to Department of Immigration and Border Protection Data – early draft

• January 20 March 2017
• Imports – port to postcode – 35 million tonnes
• Exports – postcode to port – 860 million tonnes
• Costs of transport
• $3.5 Billion imports, $143 billion exports
• Future improvements to initial analysis
• More accurate location of origins and destinations in Australia. Currently

postcode and most are head office. Creates major overestimation in costs

• More accurate location than postcode (e.g. GPS co-ordinates)
• Improvements in data recording - e.g missing postcodes
• Add rail and air transport- CSIRO to do in future version