[PPT] - Oregon and STEM+ Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree PowerPoint Presentation

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Oregon and STEM+

Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among Young Oregonians

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

What is STEM and STEM+?

STEM refers to college degrees where

graduates majored in Science, Technology, Engineering or Math

STEM+ refers to STEM majors plus

Business and Health

Better job opportunities
Rough approximation of so-called “good”

degrees

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Focus of Report

Young Oregonians and Migrants
About half of migrants are 20- and

30-somethings

1 in 4 are young college graduates
Root-setting years matter for longer-

run economic development

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Most Migrants are Young

Approx. half of all

migrants are 20- and 30-somethings

Factors that

increase migration:

Single, college

educated, not employed, youth, higher income

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Children (0-17) College Age (18-24) Root- Setting (25-34) Peak Working (35-44) Peak Earning (45-54) Late Career (55-64) Retirees (65+)

Who Moves to Oregon?

Domestic Net Migration by Age, 2014

Data: American Community Survey | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root-Setting Years Matter

Most people settle

down, begin their careers in earnest, get married, have kids, and buy a house

Vital for longer run

economic development, as

nce settled, people

much less likely to move

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age

Oregon Population by Age, 2015

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root- Setting Years

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

What Influences Migration Rates?

Factors leading to

higher probability of migrating:

Youth
Single
Not employed
Lower income
Higher educational

attainment

1 in 4 migrants to

Oregon are in their 20s or 30s and hold at least a Bachelor’s

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% All Other STEM+ HS or Less Some College College Graduate

Educated Influx into Oregon

Migration Rates to Oregon by Educational Attainment among 20-39 Year Olds, 2014

Data: Net domestic + international migrants divided by resident population Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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STEM+ Trends in Oregon

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Majority of Migrants are STEM+

Young U.S. college

graduate population is 52% STEM+, 48% All Other

Since 2009, 55% of

Oregon’s net migrants hold STEM+ degrees

Oregon’s mix is

well balanced, what makes the state unique is the strong overall gains

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Young Migrants in Oregon

Net Migration, 20-39 Year Olds, Bachelor's or Higher

STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees

STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Degrees Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a National Leader

AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

1%

0% 1% 2%

2%
1%

0% 1% 2% All Other Degrees Migration Rate STEM+ Migration Rate

College Educated Migration by State

Migration Rates by Degree Type, 20-39 Year Olds, 2014

Oregon ranks 6th best nationally in migration among all degree types, 12th best among STEM+ degrees and 7th best among all other.

Calculation: Net migration by degree type divided by total population 20-39 years old Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

26th 12th 6th 28th 16th 12th 24th 8th 7th

1 51 Resident Population

No. of Net

Migrants Migration Rate

Young Educated Migrants and Oregon

20-39 Years Old, 1 = Largest or Fastest

All Degrees STEM+ Other

Data: 2014 ACS, All 50 states plus DC, Education Attainment of Bachelor's or More Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a Migration Destination

Oregon is a medium

sized state and the local college educated population is too

However migration

trends are strong in both the actual number of net migrants, but particularly so in migration rates

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Education and the Labor Market

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Educated Influx into Oregon

Migrants have higher

educational attainment than the

verall population
In- and out-migrant

attainment is similar, but actual number of in-migrants is larger than out-migrants

Net migration

increases Oregon’s educational attainment

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2007 2010 2014

Educated Influx into Oregon

Share with Bachelor's or More, 25 Years and Older

Note: Domestic migrants only | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

In-migrants Oregon Population Out-migrants

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Higher Participation and Employment Rates

Labor force

participation rates and employment increase with educational attainment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Less Than HS High School Some College Degree, All Others Degree, STEM+ Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment and Employment

25-39 Year Old Oregonians, 2014

Labor Force Participation Employment-Population

Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

But What Type of Jobs?

A Degree Job is an

individual

ccupation that

requires a Bachelor’s or more for an entry-level hire, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Less Than HS High School Some College Degree, All Others Degree, STEM+ Educational Attainment

What Do Young Oregonians Do?

25-39 Year Olds, 2014 Not Employed Employed in Non-Degree Job Employed in Degree Job

Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Average Wages are Higher

Research has

found that every year of additional schooling results in higher wages

STEM+ graduates

earn a premium even above other college graduates

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 Less Than HS High School Some College Degree, All Others Degree, STEM+ Educational Attainment

Average Wages by Educational Attainment

25-39 Year Old Oregonians, All Workers (PT and FT), 2014

Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Barriers to Increasing Educational Attainment, STEM+ or Otherwise

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Student Loan Debt

Oregonian student

loan debt totaled $15.6b in 2014q4

Equivalent to 9.3% of

statewide total personal income

Default rate 11.5%
Median state: 11.2%
Worst outcomes for

those who don’t graduate yet incur debt burden

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Student Loan Debt as Share of Personal Income

Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon U.S.

For More: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/03/14/education-and-student-debt/

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Demographics

Overall demographics

flat for college age population

Millennials aging
Easy demographic

gains are over, must rely upon increasing educational attainment within stable population cohort

200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

College Age Population in Oregon

18-24 Year Olds

Forecast --> Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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State Comparisons

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Young STEM+ Migration, 2014

Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with STEM+ Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old

< 0% 0% - .19% .2% - .49% > .5%

STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Migration

2nd 6th 42nd 45th 50th

3% -2% -1% 0%

1% 2% Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Alaska

All College Educated Migrants

3rd 7th 36th 29th 50th

2%
1%

0% 1%

All Other Degrees

Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old

3rd 12th 42nd 47th 50th

2%
1%

0% 1%

STEM+ Degrees

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Job Type

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Not Employed Non-Degree Job Degree Job Not Employed Non-Degree Job Degree Job All Other Degrees STEM+ Degrees

What Young College Educated Northwesterns Do

25-39 Year Olds, Bachelors' or More, 2014

Alaska Idaho Montana Oregon Washington

Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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Metro Comparisons

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 1)

Among largest

metros in country, Portland has a below average share of STEM+ degrees and an above average share of all other degrees, among the working age population

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 2)

Looking at in-

migration rates across major metros, Portland is a leader for both STEM+ and all other degrees

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Summary

Root-setting age households are vital for regional

economic development

Oregon, along with its Left Coast peers, is a national

leader in attracting young, college educated migrants

STEM+ migrants are the majority into Oregon
STEM+ graduates have higher labor force

participation rates and earn higher average wages

Combined, all of the above bodes well for Oregon’s

economic future

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Contact

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052