Oilbarrel Conference
12th May 2009
Oilbarrel 12th May 2009
www.petroceltic.com
Oilbarrel Conference www.petroceltic.com 12 th May 2009 Oilbarrel 12 - - PDF document
Oilbarrel Conference www.petroceltic.com 12 th May 2009 Oilbarrel 12 th May 2009 Forward looking statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both represents managements current expectations or
12th May 2009
Oilbarrel 12th May 2009
www.petroceltic.com
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both t t’ t t ti b li f i f t t d represents management’s current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially f th d i li d b th f d l ki t t t from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
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g
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Background
q
experienced consultants
Algiers, Algeria Strategy
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success
Slide 3
Andrew Bostock Non-Executive Chairman Mr Bostock is a Petroleum Engineer with over 20 years experience in upstream oil and gas. He began his career with Shell International, and progressed through increasingly senior technical and commercial roles in a number of independent oil and Brian O’Cathain Chief Executive M O’C th i i l i t d t l i ith 25 ’ i i i t h i l d i l l i gas companies, including Enterprise Oil, Talisman Energy and Venture Production. He was appointed to the Board of Dana in 2001. He is currently Chairman of Purepower Group Limited, a privately owned renewable energy company. Mr O’Cathain is a geologist and petroleum engineer with 25 years’ experience in senior technical and commercial roles in upstream oil and gas exploration and production companies, including Shell International, Enterprise Oil and Tullow Oil plc. He has experience in working in West Africa, North Africa, onshore Europe, the North Sea, the gulf of Mexico, South Asia and offshore Ireland. He was formerly Chief Executive of AIM-listed Afren plc. Alan McGettigan g Finance Director Mr McGettigan has over twenty years of experience in upstream oil and gas. Prior to joining Petroceltic, he worked for BG International where he held senior roles in Commercial and Group Business Development. His other experience includes roles at Shell International and BP as well as four years as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company.
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Brian O'Cathain Chief Executive Head of Operations S b S f E l ti Al i O ti
R Offi
Head of Exploration Dermot Corcoran Finance Director Alan McGettigan L l Ad i Pasquale Quatrone Al i Offi
Head of Engineering
Fabrice Toussaint
Offi M t Dave Scott GM Algeria David Slaven
GM Italy
Sub Surface Evaluation Richard Baker Bernard Andre Rick Ogloff Joe English Kara English
Dublin
Algeria Operations See Hassi Chart
Group Financial Controller
Sarah Sweeney
Rome Office
See Algiers Chart Accountant Legal Advisor Hind Yassine Algiers Office See Rome Chart Office Management Ann O'Brien Emilie Roger Pascale Giordano Virginie Carrier
Dublin
SubSurface Algiers
Hassi
See Algiers Chart
Algiers Rome
See Rome Chart Finance Mgr Algiers Wellsite Geology See Hassi Chart See Algiers Chart
Finance Mgr Rome London Wellsite
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Slide 5
Dermot Corcoran –Head of Exploration
Ph.D from Trinity College Dublin, with international experience with Exxon, Fina, Statoil, Amerada Hess and Enterprise Oil. Fabrice Toussaint – Head of Petroleum Engineering Richard Baker – Geophysics Consultant Geophysicist with over 40 years of Experience in International Operations. Worked with Burmah, Unocal, Dana & JKX. Bernard Andre – Geophysics Consultant Fabrice Toussaint Head of Petroleum Engineering Petroleum Engineer with 17 years International experience, Ex-GM Congo for Perenco, Mauritania for Woodside. Ex Elf, Perenco, Tullow, Woodside., worked in Mauritania, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Colombia, France & Tunisia. Rick Ogloff- Exploration Team Leader Italy 18 years International Experience Geophysicist, with Encana, Veritas, Gaffney Cline Associates Bernard Andre – Geophysics Consultant Over 30 years of experience with Exxon, Total, Repsol and Petronas. Bernard is an experienced Geophysicist with world wide experience, and detailed knowledge of Algeria and Gabon. Joe English – Senior Geologist Joe holds a B.Sc from Trinity College Dublin, and a Ph.D. From the University of Victoria in Canada. He formerly worked with Encana and Nexen in Canada. Kara English – Operations Geologist Kara joined Petroceltic from Encana, where she had 4 years of Operational Geology experience
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David Slaven GM Algeria Dave Scott - Head of Operations Ex COO Regal Oil, Head of Operations Burlington, Drilling Manager Italy for Enterprise Oil. Experienced drilling and Production Operations Manager, drilling experience in Italy (Onshore & Offshore) & Algeria. David Slaven – GM Algeria David was formerly GM Algeria for Burlington Resources and LLE, and prior to that was Finance Manager Algeria for LLE, Anadarko, and El Paso. He has worked in Algeria from the early 1980s. Hassan Yassine – Legal Advisor, Algeria Hassan was formerly head of Legal at Sonatrach Q G Tony Engleton – Drilling Supervisor Former Drilling Manager for Ascent (Italy & Hungary). Drilling Manager at Burlington Resources. Extensive offshore drilling experience in Italy, North Sea and Denmark for Maersk, Shell International & Enterprise. Pasquale Quattrone – GM Italy Experienced ex-ENI Explorationist. Extensive experience onshore & offshore Italy and North Africa. Ex-GM Italy for JKX. Mustapha Zemiti – Operational Support Over 30 years experience in Sonatrach Drilling group Former Head of Well Services in Sonatrach Lance Robinson– Senior Drilling Engineer Onshore & offshore drilling experience with BP, Burlington, Hardy, Ranger, Amoco and Enterprise Oil. Worked in UKCS, Algeria, Italy, Australia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. Brahim Zanoun – Finance & Administration Manager Accountant formerly head of Administration and Accounting in Sonatrach’s well services division Over 30 years experience in Sonatrach Drilling group. Former Head of Well Services in Sonatrach. Sarah Sweeney – Group Financial Controller Sarah is a Chartered Accountant who trained with KPMG in Dublin and subsequently worked with an Australian public listed company before joining Petroceltic.
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Accountant, formerly head of Administration and Accounting in Sonatrach s well services division
10% 12% 9% 23%
525-560 478 590-640 560-605
supply gap
Billion m ³
11% 24% 7% 13% 9% 11% 8% 12% 10% 7% 11%
478
Al i
advanced projects
n
24% 15% 6% 14% 22% 12% 21% 20% 7% 4% Algeria Russia
U Production
9% 28% 8% 21% 19% 10% 17% 4% 5% indigenous production for domestic use Norway Netherlands
EU
2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 2
* of which: Nigeria 3%, Qatar 3%
LNG-share (in imports)
10% 20% 20% 22%
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Basis for imports: Contracted volumes and prospective contract prolongations Russia without volumes via North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) which are included in advanced projects Source: Eurogas
180 200
F 2007
159 187 140 160 180
Reserves TCF
100 105 80 100 120
Proven R
73 53 20 40 60 20 Algeria Egypt Libya Nigeria EU Norway
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S
t at ist ical Review of World Energy 2008
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2008
4 Dry Shows Appraisal wells in italics 3 s Shows Oil Gas French exploration 2 Number of wells
1 N-1 2 TXB-1
Sonatrach exploration Repsol appraisal Petroceltic Appraisal
1 N
TTY- TXAN
1 NCL-2 bis TXA-1 NCL-1 T-2 ISAS-
1 9 5 8 1 9 6 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6
CLR-1 INE-1 INW-1 TMZ- HTTN-1 TSI-1b GTT-2 GTT-1 IR-1 HTT-1 HTT-
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Year
Slide 12
Source: Sonatrach, Petroceltic analysis
Total’s TFT 8 TCF gas, 840 MMBBLS liquids recoverable Circa 80 km from BP’s In Amenas Cluster Circa 80 km from Isarene Repsol’s Tifernine oil
15 k GTT 1 BP’s In Amenas Cluster
5.2 TCF gas & 264 MMBBLS liquids recoverable 15 km GTT-1
HTT & ISAS Discovery Areas
Ain Ain Tsila Tsila Ridge Ridge Prospect Prospect
BP’s Tin Zaouatene-1 Illizi Basin. BP 49% and Operator.
S IHS
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Prospect Prospect 1.5 1.5-
6 TCF potential potential
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Flowed 9.5 mmscf/d
Source: IHS, Petroceltic analysis
Well Services contract to Schlumberger/ Sonatrach JV
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p pp / p 2010-2012
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S i ti di i f f t d ti – Secure existing discoveries for future production – Prove large gas resources (> 2TCF) on Ain Tsilla Ridge 3D area – Obtain early oil production at GTT – Secure existing gas discoveries for exploitation via adjacent planned infrastructure – Drill remaining exploration prospects – Capture 2P reserves – Drilling Rig Contract signed for KCA Deutag Nomad Class Rig T-212 – Drilling starts mid-May 2009 9-12 month programme
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Drilling starts mid-May 2009, 9-12 month programme
Ai T il Rid AinTsila Ridge 3 wells ISAS Area 2/3 Shallow wells
AT-1
INE-2 INW-2 GTT-3
AT-2 AT-3
INE-2
HTT-2 flowed 15.3 mmscf/ d
EB-1
ISAS-1 flowed 1.1 mmscf/ d
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El Biod exploration
Isarene - Top Ordovician S tructure Map
Ordovician Ain Tsila Prospect- Unrisked Potential Contingent Resources
Mean Case
Lowest Closing Contour
GWC 1903m GWC 1903m 2550 BCF Crest 1800 m
P10 Case
GDT in TXA-1
GWC 1951m
Deterministic Case
Lowest Closing Contour
GWC 1903m 1550 BCF
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No charge risk lots of gas (based on wells drilled to date) – No charge risk, lots of gas (based on wells drilled to date) – Good structural closure – Need good porosity 6-12% – Need open fractures – Internal estimate of good well > 5 mmscf/ d – Development well could potentially do x5 to x10 times p p y – Will decide on test / frac program post logging – Test results will be kept tight until Regulatory approval
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discovery declaration
St uctu a e e at o a se gas co u pe et at o
probability of coalesced turbidite sands and/ or channel/ ribbon p y / / sandstones
p p , , y py, faulting – focus around NW-SE trending lineaments
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S
Incised Valley Boundary Top Ordovician time surface Incised Valley Boundary Oilbarrel 12th May 2009
CIVIL WORK In Country Mobilisation Rig Up on Location Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jul-09 Aug-09 Jan-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Feb-10 INE-2 (Drill/Test) AT-1 (Move/Drill/Test) AT-2 (Move/Drill/Test) El Biod (Move/Drill/Test) INW-2 (Move/Drill/Test) GTT-3 (Move/Drill/Test) AT 3 (M /D ill/T t)
Key
AT-3 (Move/Drill/Test) Rig Demobilisation Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Jul-09 Aug-09 Jan-09
Key
Mobilisation Drilling Rig Move Ri l W ll T / F i
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Rigless Well Test/ Fracing
Timing Wells P90 P50 P10 Pmean P90 P50 P10 Pmean P90 P50 P10 Pmean Total Gross Prospective Resources (MMboe) Reservoir Prospect Gross Prospective Resources (Bcf) Gross Prospective Resources (MMbbls) Ain Tsila 300 1,381 6,013 2,616 15 69 301 131 69 316 1,375 598 Q3/Q4 2009 3 El Biod 7 44 249 106 2 12 5 2 10 57 24 Q1/2010 1 SubTotal 307 1,425 6,262 2,722 15 71 313 136 70 326 1,432 622 ISAS Area 310 27 83 Q2 2009 2 Ordovician Devonian/ Hassi Tabtab 146 6 32 El Biod Area 138 332 641 368 138 332 641 368 Q1/2010 1 SubTotal 456 138 332 641 401 25 59 114 528 TOTAL 3,178 537 1,150 7 Devonian/ Carboniferous
*Current Petroceltic estimates, post new 3D interpretation All numbers gross prospect, unrisked
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7 Permits (3 operated) 11 Offshore Exclusive Applications 1 Onshore Exclusive Application 2-3 wells planned for 2 3 wells planned for 2010/2011 High Equity Interests Oil & Gas
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Asset Review 20th October 2008 Slide 26
140 160 Kbopd Italy is the 3rd largest producer in the EU 100 120 Italy 60 80 Italy Netherlands Romania Tunisia 40 60 Tunisia France ‐ 20 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
S
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Kbopd Italy is the 3rd largest producer in the EU 180% 140% 160% 100% 120% 60% 80% 40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
S
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Italy Netherlands Romania Tunisia France UK Norway Demark
Discovery Curve – Driven by complex geology & new plays
MIGLIANICO-ELSA APULIAN MARGIN PLAY
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sealed by overlying pelagic sediment
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Maiolica Massiccio
Source:Vega Oil
High-side case assumes continuous pool and similar OWC to Miglianico (>-4780m).. API = 15 – 34 ˚
Elsa -1 – (1992) Logged 75m oil zone, good
Elsa West
DHI: Flat Spot
p y p quality DST. P&A. Top reservoir – 4475 mssl TD 4841m
Elsa
Miglianico 1 (2001) tested 2500 bopd (34 api) TD 4966m
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Miglianico 2 (2003) tested 1750 bopd (37 api) TD 4925m
Triassic Villafortuna-Trecate Fields 265 MMbbls + 250 BCF Gaggiano Field 100 MMbbls Zeme Lomellina Triassic Gas Prospect: Potential Contingent Resources 600 BCF Rovasenda Triassic Oil Prospect: Potential Contingent Resources 200 MMbbl 200 MMbbls
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PCI 47.5% ; ENI 47.5% ; Condotte 5%
Depth Structure Map: ~Base Jurassic
Prospect Type ‘Trap Door’ Fault Block Target Depth ~ 3000-4000m Reservoir Jurassic/ Trias Lst. HC Type Oil HC Column 250-1500m V i l Cl 2500 Vertical Closure 2500m ML Area 32 km 2 Max Area 32 km 2 STOOIP 680 MMbbls STOOIP (Mean) 680 MMbbls Reservoir Param eters Gross Reservoir 40-60% Net/ Gross 40-60% Porosity 3-12% (Avg. 6% ) Sw 20-60%
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Recovery Factor 40%
D ill El A i l ll i 2 0 1 0 / 1 1
P2 potential resources 8 0 m m bbls, upside 1 8 0 m m bbls
g p y ( Villafortuna trend) 2 0 1 0 / 2 0 1 1 P2 potential resources 2 0 0 m m bbls
farm -out
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Petroceltic 57% Independent 40% Derwent & GA I A
Oryx Structure
Derwent & GA.I.A. New seismic interpretation Complete – additional Prospects identified
Area 5600 km2
Verenex Accacus successes In western Libya >5000 bopd/well Storm Ventures success In TT-2, tested 300 bopd from the Ordovician, 170 MMbbls STOIIP di d i A il 2009
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STOIIP discovered in April 2009
S
ll l d / f
– Fulfill outstanding commitments Test Oryx and South Salah prospects – Test Oryx and South Salah prospects – Wells costs approximately $5mm each h bl k l d l b &
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Petroceltic’s attractive portfolio and underpin the inherent value of our oil and gas asset base – Iberdrola invested $55m in Petroceltic through placing of approximately 216m shares at £0.13 / share. Three year standstill in place, and non-blocking provisions – Iberdrola has paid $7.3m for option to invest a further $47.7m to acquire 49% financing interest in Algerian asset (subject to regulatory & partner approval) – 1 non-executive director on board
Strategic alliance highlights intrinsic value in Petroceltic’s attractive exploration and appraisal portfolio
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exploration and appraisal portfolio
Sources US $ Uses US $ Million Million Cash 1st January 2009 43.4 Algeria 7 well programme
Net Business Running Costs
Iberdrola Ad ance Fee 7 3 Other Cape 3 0 Iberdrola Advance Fee 7.3 Other Capex
Drilling 2008 prepayments 5.6 Iberdrola Farm-in funds 55.0 Total Opening Cash 56.3 Closing Cash 47.3
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Source: Petroceltic Management Accounts & 2009 Budget
Sources US $ Uses US $ Million Million Million Million Cash 1st January 2009 43.4 Algeria 5 well programme
Net Business Running Costs
Iberdrola Advance Fee 7.3 Other Capex
Drilling 2008 prepayments 5.6 Iberdrola Farm-in funds 0.0 Total Opening Cash 56.3 Closing Cash 6.3
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Source: Petroceltic Management Accounts & 2009 Budget
Existing and New Investors US D$31.1 Iberdrola provision @ 22.34% * US D$ 8.9 US D$40.00
ecures Algerian drilling programme in case of delay to Iberdrola farm-in approval
Allows continuation of Algerian appraisal in a success case
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* Not e: Iberdrola has an opt ion t o t ake 22.34 %
Current Shares in issue 965,797,049 % £mm US$mm Tranche1 ‐ Unconditional 190,619,082 19.7% 13.3 19.4 Tranche 2 ‐ AGM on 3/6/09 114,164,330 11.8% 8.0 11.6 Tranche 3 ‐ Iberdrola Option* 87,680,588 9.1% 6.1 8.9 Total Placing 392 464 000 40 64% 27 5 40 0 Total Placing 392,464,000 40.64% 27.5 40.0 New Shares in issue post Funding 1,358,261,049 Issue Price (27/9/08) 7p/share 30 day Average price 6.997p/share
Post placing Market Capitalisation $185 million (9p/ share 11/ 5/ 09) Oilbarrel 12th May 2009
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* Not e: Iberdrola has an opt ion t o t ake 22.34 %
– Currently not fully funded for success case drilling programme – Finance in place for drilling in 2009/ 10, but cannot complete desired programme without Iberdrola farm-in – Difficult/ impossible to fund while drilling ongoing – Provides protection in case of drilling project cost overruns
– Italian Portfolio requires funding for 3D seismic and drilling q g g – Rig commitments must be entered into in 2009 for drilling in 2010 – New seismic required for Rovasenda prospect in Po Valley
p g g
– New investors are backing the vision of management to grow across the portfolio, in Algeria, Italy and Mediterranean / Maghreb – Quality of new and existing investors is high, long term holders
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Q y g g , g
Country Davy Mirabaud Davy Mirabaud Risked Unrisked Upside 11/05/2009 12/05/2009 11/05/2009 12/05/2009 Algeria 6.1 7.4 43 34 Italy 10 1 24 7 141 188 Italy 10.1 24.7 141 188 Tunisia 3.2 1.6 40 10 Corporate 5.0 6.6 5 7 Value 24.4 40.3 229 239 Target 24.2 15.0
All values in p/ share
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S
– Rig in country 5/ 7 well programme about to start Rig in country, 5/ 7 well programme about to start – Finance in place for drilling in 2009/ 10, additional farm-in funds expected – Strong Technical & Operational Team Robust Strategic Partner Iberdrola – Robust Strategic Partner – Iberdrola – Italy Adriatic/ Po Valley permits secured with drill ready prospects
– Drilling expected start date 17th May 2009 5/ 7 wells planned for Algeria 2009/ 10 – 5/ 7 wells planned for Algeria 2009/ 10 – Up to 3 wells planned for Italy 2010/ 11 – Possible drilling in Tunisia 2009/ 10 – Iberdrola Farm-in expected Q3/ Q4, further $55 mm cash
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