NPC National Planning Commission Post Disaster Needs Assessment Process and Key Findings Prof Dr Govind Raj Pokharel National Planning Commission Vice Chairman
What is a PDNA? A methodology and a framework to assist governments to estimate the extent of disaster’s effects and impact across all sectors and social groups; A tool to support country-led assessments to initiate recovery planning processes through a coordinated inter- institutional platform integrating the concerted efforts of national and international partners. An instrument to produce an actionable and sustainable recovery strategy for mobilizing financial and technical resources. A process to estimate of recovery costs and recommend strategies for the way forward National Planning Commission 1
Assumptions & Limitations The data set for damages and losses fully not complete due to • Scale of disaster; • Time constraint; • Remoteness of the areas; • Competing priorities. Extrapolation of data in many sectors based on CBS assessment of impact on GDP Survey of damages Unit costs Specifications for improved reconstruction Costing based on Current market prices Improved standards Logistical challenges National Planning Commission 2
Initiatives and milestones achieved by NPC Activity Date Coordination meetings to draw up sectors for assessments May 15, 2015 Organized PDNA training workshop for over 250 persons May 20, 2015 from line ministries, donor agencies, and civil society Formed Sector Groups with focal points, sector team leads May 20, 2015 and members during the workshop Sector groups discussions and finalization of assessment May 21, 2015 methodology and presentation to other sectors for ? comments, ad finalization of delivery schedules Sector leads coordination meetings with PDNA Secretariat – Every third day – led by NPC for updating collection of data, facilitation of from May 22 to field visits and meetings with data sources June 8 , 2015 National Planning Commission 3
Initiatives and milestones achieved by NPC Activity Date Debriefing of Members of CCG and combined review of June 4, 2015 progress with line Ministries and Sector Leads of 23 sectors Receipt, review and revision of data by Core Coordination June 2 to 10 , Group (CCG) members 2015 Submission of zero draft sector reports to PDNA CCG by June 4, 2015 sector teams Consultations with elected members of the Constituent Jun19e 6 , ? Assembly representing worst affected 14 districts 2015 Review of sector reports and data by CCG and providing June 4 to 9, comments to sector team focal point in line ministries and 2015 team leads + discussion & updation of data flow with NPC National Planning Commission members 4
Initiatives and milestones achieved by NPC Activity Date Review of Data sheets by NPC members June 8, 2015 First consolidated draft report forwarded to NPC for review by June 10, 2015 CCG Review, reconciliation & validation of data with sector teams by June 11 & 12 , NPC members and CCG 2015 Consultations with heads & representatives of CCG members & June 11 & 12 , other selected donor agencies 2015 ? Preliminary Findings already considered in full meeting of NPC, June 12 , 2015 chaired by Rt. Hon’ble Prime Minister Stakeholders consultation (Pvt Sector, Civil Society, Political June 13, 2015 party, Experts, others) National Planning Commission 5 Correction of data in reports & preparation of Executive Summary June 17 & 18,
Recovery strategy is a multi-dimensional solution that aligns needs with resources and delivery model A Stakeholder alignment B C D Prioritize E F Identify Identify areas/ Identify Funding fimpact delivery sectors that resource strategy and model, needs to be requirement and implemen- policy for rebuilt s resources tation sector • Identify • Identify all • Identify • Identify and • Identify the Objectives major areas aspects of critical areas match execution model for for resources for funding sector, i.e., reconstructi required for reconstructi resources how to get on, i.e., what each sector on using a for each things done, recovery – needs to be rigorous and area including done in each HR, agreed upon governance sector to materials, framework structure , & recover from monetary to prioritize Monitoring the disaster etc and Evaluation criteria National Planning Commission 6
B Nepal employed globally accepted PDNA methodology to assess the impact of earthquake PDNA assessed damages, losses and ...in consultation with all ...via categorization in 4 major needs... stakeholders... sectors and 23 themes • Damage to infrastructure • All line ministries Social Infrastructure and physical assets in Housing Electricity • 30 Development partners public and private sectors Health Communications Education Community • Losses of production of • Private sector Nutrition Transport goods and services and Cultural Heritage Water • Civil Society access to goods and services; Productive Cross-Cutting • Academia Agriculture Governance • Effects on governance Irrigation Disaster • Technical agencies and decision making Commerce Environment processes Industry Gender • Briefing to Parliamentary Tourism Social Protection • Increased risk and Finance Employment & vulnerabilities Livelihood GoN's published PDNA is the only authoritative, all-inclusive statistics on the impact National Planning Commission 7
B PDNA outcome has been agreed upon across Vice Chairman & Members, National Planning Commission High level oversight (NPC) Core Coordination Group/ PDNA NPC, European Union, Japan, United Nation, Asian Secretariat Development Bank & World Bank Focal Point in Sector Lead from Sector Focal Line Ministry NPC Point at NPC Govt. Of Nepal (Member NPC) (Joint Secretary) (Joint Secretary) Sector teams Team Members Cluster (Sector experts Groups incl. from (Development Development Partners) Partners) Consultation group Private sectors, Academics, Civil societies, Technical agencies Members of Parliament from impacted districts have been consulted and briefed National Planning Commission 8
...with strong negative impact on the economy and expected needs of $6.7B... USD 5 B USD 2 B USD 7 B Damages Losses Over 700,000 people • GDP lowered by 1.6 % in FY 15 at 3.04% expected to go • 1/3 rd of the total GDP impacted below poverty line if immediate help not extended USD 6.7 B Needs National Planning Commission 9
...led by housing, education and tourism as top three sectors Total Needs 3,300 $3,278M $397M $387M $335M 300 $282M $252M $206M $201M 200 $186M $184M $181M $156M $147M $125M 100 $82M $74M $64M $50M $49M $45M $11M $5M 0 Housing Education Tourism Finance Transport Env. and Forestry Heritage Commerce Electricity Governance WASH Agriculture Health Emp. & Liv. DRR Industry Soc. Prot. Nutrition Comms. Com. Infra Gender & Soc. Inclu. Irrigation National Planning Commission 10
Planned Year wise Allocation of Reconstruction Budget ( NPR in Million) SECTOR 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Total Social Sectors 84,935 83,914 109,210 69,559 53,852 6,278 407,747 Productive Sectors 78,250 31,797 5,152 256 164 - 115,618 Infrastr. Sectors 29,658 21,965 12,799 4,935 4,910 - 74,266 Cross- Cutting Issues 24,087 19,765 18,617 3,496 2,859 3,048 71,873 Total 216,931 157,440 145,778 78,245 61,785 9,326 669,504 National Planning Commission 11
Pledges at ICNR 2015 in Million US $ COUNTRY GRANT (A) SOFT LOAN (B) TOTAL (A+B) 650 750 1400 INDIA CHINA 767 0 767 JAPAN 52 208 260 NORWAY 16 0 16 USA 130 0 130 0 600 600 ADB WB 0 500 500 EU 112 0 112 EU (TA) 6 0 6 UK (DFID) 110 0 110 1 0 1 AUSTRIA AUSTRALIA 5 0 5 CANADA 11 0 11 National Planning Commission 12
Contd. 1 0 1 BANGLADESH ROK 10 0 10 PAK 1 0 1 SWITZERLAND 25 0 25 SRI LANKA 3 0 3 0 30 30 SAUDI ARABIA 26 0 26 NETHERLANDS SWEDEN 10 0 10 FINLAND 2 0 2 GERMANY 34 0 34 2 0 2 TURKEY 0 50 50 IMF Grand Total 1972 2138 4110 National Planning Commission 13
Post Earthquake Recovery and Reconstruction Policy/strategy • Central policy/plan decentralised implementation • Apply the build back better principle • Owner driven reconstruction approach in private housing and Minimize resettlement but focus on integrated settlement • Maximum utilisation of local resources, skills, labour • Inclusiveness – core of reconstruction programme • An effective institutional set up -NAR • Strong government leadership in aid coordination • Capacity building and good governance National Planning Commission 14
Factors Affecting Reconstruction • Initial momentum for reconstruction lost as NPC concentrated on budget preparation and government in constitution making • Protracted political conflicts and its ramifications affecting reconstruction • Delay in bringing out Reconstruction Policies and reactivate National Authority for Reconstruction • Low level of government guidance at the time of project development by development partners • Low Economic Growth National Planning Commission 15
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