NORTHEAS NORTHEAS T/ MID ATLANTIC T/ MID-ATLANTIC AIR-S OURCE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NORTHEAS NORTHEAS T/ MID ATLANTIC T/ MID-ATLANTIC AIR-S OURCE HEAT PUMP S TRATEGY REPORT PRES ENTATION PRES ENTED BY DAVID LIS DAVID LIS Director of Energy Efficiency S trategies NORTHEAS NORTHEAS T ENERGY EFFICIENCY P T ENERGY EFFICIENCY P ARTNERS ARTNERS HIPS HIPS THURS DA Y JANUAR Y 16, 2014

Webinar Housekeeping Webinar Housekeeping • No role call; Attendee list can be viewed on the sidebar • All phone lines will be muted until Q&A section • Technical support; Use the chat function on the side bar the side bar • High level presentation; please refer to report for more detail or contact me directly for more detail or contact me directly

Presentation Agenda Presentation Agenda • Genesis of Report (NEEP , 10 min.) • Highlights from Market Assessment (S g g ( WA, 20 min.) • Recommended Regional Market S Recommended Regional Market S trategies trategies (NEEP) (20 min.) • Next steps/ Q&A (NEEP/ S • Next steps/ Q&A (NEEP/ S WA 10 min ) WA, 10 min.)

NORTHEAS T ENERGY EFFICIENCY P ARTNERS HIPS “Accelerating Energy Efficiency” “A l ti E Effi i ” MISSION MISSION Accelerate the efficient use of energy in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Regions MARKET STRATEGIES TEAM Developing and implementing Market p g p g S trategies to facilitate the transformation of priority product categories; • Residential Lighting R id i l Li h i • Business and Consumer Electronics • Heat Pump Water Heaters • Heat Pump Water Heaters • Air-S ource Heat Pumps 3

What are Air-S ource Heat Pumps (AS HP)? • R Residential HVAC technology id i l HVAC h l that uses electricity • Transfer heat from outdoors Transfer heat from outdoors to indoors (or vice versa) using a vapor compression cycle. l • Think of an air conditioner that can run in reverse during that can run in reverse during cold weather. • Provide a combination of space heating and, in some h ti d i instances, cooling to homes.

Why should we care about AS HPs in this region? • S pace Heating dominates residential energy consumption (site) in the Northeast 27% 27% Space Heating Space Heating Water Heating 55% 55% 2% 2% 16% Air Conditioning Plug Load (incl. Appliances / Electronics) Source; 2009 EIA RECS

AS HPs don’ t do well in cold climates, right? • Things have changed… Recent advances in technology (i.e. inverter-driven compressor motors) have made AS HPs a legitimate heating alternative in cold climates

How do we know they are performing? • Body of evidence y constantly growing (i.e. in-field (i.e. in field monitoring)

NEEP s Perspective NEEP’s Perspective • NEEP views the expanded use of this particular technology in the region as a potential pathway to multiple outcomes: – Reduction in energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and costs associated with space heating – Effective solution for comprehensively meeting heating/ cooling loads in low load homes (i.e. h l l d l l d h zero-net energy homes)

NEEP’s Perspective NEEP s Perspective • Not wanting to repeat the same mistakes of other emerging technologies … Need for coordinated market growth strategies • HURR Y UP S LOWL Y!

REPORT DEVELOPMENT PROCES REPORT DEVELOPMENT PROCES S S June ‐ Hiring of Ju e g o J l July ‐ Creation of C ti f J l July ‐ Clarification of Cl ifi ti f Steven Winter Leadership Advisory Project Plan/Scope Associates as lead Committee (LAC ) (w LAC) support contractor August ‐ September ‐ July/August ‐ Identification/ Development of Completion of Draft Strategies Market Assessment Prioritization of (SWA ) (SWA ) (SWA) (SWA) Barriers (LAC) Barriers (LAC) October ‐ Review January – Final and Finalization of Report Strategies Strategies Dissemination Dissemination (LAC/NEEP/SWA) (NEEP)

Leadership Advisory Committee (LAC) and S (LAC) and S teven Winter Associates teven Winter Associates Team

HIGHLIGHTS / INS IGHTS OF MARKET AS S ES S MENT • Presented by Robb Aldrich, Team Lead from S teven Winter Associates (S WA)

Air S Air-S ource Heat Pump Family Tree ource Heat Pump Family Tree

Ducted, ductless, in between… Equipment Equipment

S S tudies & Potential S tudies & Potential S avings avings • NW studies: DHP saves ~3,000 kWh/ year displacing elec. resistance • NE study: DHP saves ~2,500 kWh/ year displacing elec resistance displacing elec. resistance. • May cost ~50% to heat compared to oil and LP heating systems. • Close to cost of natural gas? • Close to cost of natural gas?

Providing a portion of the necessary heat (Displacement) necessary heat (Displacement) … Cost comparison p Displacing Electric Resistance: Displacing Electric Resistance: Electricity Savings 3,000 kWh, $0.153/kWh $459 Displacing Oil: Oil Savings Oil Savings 164 gallons, $3.87/gal 164 gallons $3 87/gal $633 $633 Added Electricity 2,000 kWh $306 Net Annual Savings Net Annual Savings: $327 $327

Heating a Whole House… Cost Comparison Natural Electricity Electricity Gas Gas (ASHP) (ASHP) (Resist.) (Resist.) Fuel Fuel Oil Oil LP LP Seasonal Eff/COP 80% 90% 90% 2.5 100% $3.87 $3.00 $1.15 $0.15 $0.15 Fuel Cost per gallon per gallon per therm per gallon per gallon per therm per kWh per kWh per kWh per kWh Annual Example Home Type Heating Load Approximate Annual Operating Cost* Large, inefficient 100 MMBtu $3,710 $3,880 $1,506 $1,794 $4,484 Average NE Home 50 MMBtu $1,855 $1,940 $753 $897 $2,242 New, code ‐ compliant 25 MMBtu $927 $970 $376 $448 $1,121 Very efficient ff 10 MMBtu $ $371 $ $388 $151 $ $179 $ $ $448

Carbon Comparison Carbon Comparison

Associated Carbon Emission impacts do vary by state

ynergy with Renewables ynergy with Renewables S S

Electric Demand Effects Electric Demand Effects • KEMA study calculates winter on-peak impacts – e.g. 0.024 kW/ kBtu/ h for Boston. On average each 2-ton heat pump (displacing resistance) reduces winter on-peak demand by 0.58 kW. ~1,700 HPs result in 1 MW reduction 1 700 HPs result in 1 MW reduction • S hifting from oil will increase demand. – e.g. 0.016 kW/ kBtu/ h, e.g. 0.38 kW for a 2-ton HP . – ~2,600 HPs result in 1 MW of on-peak demand. 21

Our Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Regions • Northeast (Climate Zones 5 and 6) – RECS (ME, NH, VT , MA, NY , P A) • Mid-Atlantic (Climate Zone 4) – RECS (NJ, DE, DC, MD, WV) ( , , , , ) 22

Region’s Housing Market Region s Housing Market Age of Occupied Homes* 18 18 post 1980 16 76% of NE homes are 4.2 more than 30 years old – th 30 ld 14 prime targets for energy retrofits 12 in millions s 10 8 p pre ‐ 1980 13.4 6 post 1980 2.6 4 pre ‐ 1980 2 3.7 0 Northeast N th t Middl Atl Middle Atlantic ti CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, PA, & RI DC, DE, MD, NJ, & WV Region & Construction *2009 EIA RECS Data; Includes occupied homes in the following categories: single family attached & detached, apartment buildings, 23

Primary Heating Fuel Primary Heating Fuel Northeast Homes Middle Atlantic Homes CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, PA, & RI* DC, DE, MD, WV, & NJ* 9 9 8 0.3 8 6% use oil 6% use oil 31% use oil 31% il 7 58% use gas 7 48% use gas 3.4 6 6 ions ons 0.4 5 5 5 in millio in milli 4 4 0.3 3.3 3 1.1 3 2 2 4 5 4.5 2 0.4 0.7 0.4 2.4 1 0.6 1 1.8 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0 0.1 0 Natural Gas Electricity Fuel Oil Other fuel Natural Gas Electricity Fuel Oil Other fuel Heat Pump Other Equipment Equipment Built ‐ In Electric Units Steam or Hot Water System Central Warm ‐ Air Furnace 24 *2009 EIA RECS Data; Includes occupied single family attached & detached, apartment buildings, & mobile homes.

Cooling Equipment Cooling Equipment Northeast Homes Middle Atlantic Homes CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, PA, & RI* DC, DE, MD, WV, & NJ* 9 9 8 8 3+ units Only 30% have 2.1 7 7 central AC central AC 65% have central AC 65% have central AC 6 6 2 units in millions in millions 5 5 3 More than 10 years old 4 4 Do not use More than 2 1 2.1 10 years AC 3 3 old 1.3 Do not 2 Less than 2 1 unit Do not Less than have or 3+ units 10 years old 3.5 have AC 10 years do not use 1 3.1 2 units 1 2.8 old AC AC 1 unit 0 0 Room Air Central Air No Air Room Air Central Air No Air Conditioning Conditioning Conditioning Conditioning Conditioning unit(s) Conditioning unit(s) Equipment Equipment *2009 EIA RECS Data; Includes occupied single family attached & detached, apartment buildings, & mobile homes. 25

Market Candidates Ma et Ca d dates S ignificant Opportunities in the Northeast Older homes in need of energy need of energy retrofit (10 million) Oil heat homes Homes without looking to central AC t l AC reduce fuel d f l costs (9.5 million) (4 million) Much smaller market shares in the Mid-Atlantic Much smaller market shares in the Mid Atlantic Homes heated with oil (0.5 million) Homes without central AC (2 million) 26

Electric Resistance Candidates Electric Resistance Candidates Northeast h Mid Atlantic d l Homes with Homes with primarily primarily primaril primarily resistance heat: resistance heat: ~0.7 m ~1.3 m