NOBINA AB Investor presentation, March May 2017 1 LARGEST PUBLIC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NOBINA AB Investor presentation, March – May 2017 1

LARGEST PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMPANY IN THE NORDIC REGION Total market - Annual net sales per country  Nobina’s economies of scale, market expertise and outstanding bus fleet, combined with long-term delivery of quality, make Nobina the industry (SEK billion) leader in terms of profitability.  Stable operations and growing market. More than 95% of revenues supported by long term contracts, typically lasting 5-10 years with a potential 1-2 year extension.  Nobina aims to grow profitability through active contract and portfolio 7 management and to increase the value added by delivering benefits to 9 passengers, clients and society. Nobina - Net sales per country 21 2016/17 (SEK billion) 8 Sweden 6 332 Denmark 535 Norway 974 Finland 1 044 Source: Approximation based on Nobina’s data 2 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW Q1 NET SALES EBIT EBT CASH FLOW SEK million SEK million SEK million SEK million 2,276 87 50 -64 (2,224) (121) (86) (32) Q1 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS  Net sales grew 2.3% supported by passenger driven revenue and extra traffic, partly offset by negative contract migration effects from last year  EBT dropped to SEK 50 million due to contract migration, lower efficiency and one time costs of SEK 12 million related to staff redundancy  Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital was SEK 222 million (286)  Investments of SEK 213 million (112) in buses and other equipment 3 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN Q1  Two contracts with Västtrafik covering 50 buses were extended by two years until 2021  Final political decisions taken to initiate conversion to electric buses for two lines in Malmö  Annual General Meeting (AGM) held at May 31 − Adoption of the board’s dividend proposal of 3,10 SEK per share, an increase of 19 percent versus last year. − Decision to launch a new performance-based share saving program for key persons within the group − Two new board members were elected, Monica Lingegård and Liselott Kilaas  Nobina initiated a strategic review of its interregional business segment which is to be finalized during 2017  Q1 result includes a one time cost of 12 MSEK related to staff redundancy 4 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AFTER Q1  Nobina was awarded a 10 year-contract in Kungsbacka, Sweden covering 15 buses  Skånetrafiken extended contract with Nobina until 2021 in Malmö and converts to electric buses  SL and Nobina will develop the city traffic in Norrtälje, Sweden by extending the contract to 2021 and increase focus on electric buses  Troms Fylkestrafikk and Nobina Norway are in agreement not to utilise the full extension option which means the contract will end on July 31, 2019 5

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT  Passenger driven revenue and extra traffic continue to have favourable impact  Solid operational performance in Finland  Successful traffic start in Sweden  Expected lower performance level driven by last year’s contract migration in Swedish contract portfolio  Efficiency challenges related to driver cost  Strategic review of interregional business ongoing Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18 6

MARKET UPDATE  Electric bus conversion continues with more tenders including electric buses as well as existing contracts being partly converted to electric buses  Continued favourable development of contract terms among PTA’s in the Norwegian market  Bus-for-rail market continues to grow 7 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

TENDER RESULTS – YTD Tender update  Nobina submitted tenders for 395 buses Number of buses  Nobina did not win any of the 62 announced buses 1 600 1 366 1 400 Tender results during the period 1 200 March 2017 – (number of buses) 1 000 May 2017 1144 Announced Won 800 600 5 0 Sweden 395 333 400 0 0 Norway 200 395 333 62 222 0 0 0 Finland Available Submitted Pending Announced Won Nobina operating old contract Others operating old contract 57 0 Denmark Definitions: Available - Remaining buses available in tenders this year Total 62 0 Submitted – Number of buses in tenders submitted by Nobina Pending – Submitted less announced Announced – Submitted tenders, results are announced Won – Nobina’s wins out of announced tenders 8 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

CONTRACT MIGRATION, YTD  Nobina started contracts involving 79 buses during the period  Nobina did not end any contracts during the period 8.2 AVERAGE WEIGHTED Traffic changes during the period March 2017 – (number of buses) CONTRACT LENGTH (Last year) May 2017 (8.1) Started Ended 58 0 Sweden 3.9 AVERAGE WEIGHTED 21 0 Norway CONTRACT AGE (Last year) (4.0) 0 0 Finland 5.7 0 0 Denmark AVERAGE AGE OF BUS FLEET (Last year) Total 79 0 (5.7) 9 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

CONTRACT MIGRATION, COMING 12M Traffic starts June 2017 – May 2018 Expiring contracts June 2017 – May 2018 PTA No. of years Traffic start No. of buses New buses PTA Traffic ending No. of buses HSL, Finland 7 Aug 2017 8 7 Skyss, Norway Jun 2017 44 HSL, Finland 2 Aug 2017 19 0 HSL, Finland Aug 2017 16 Skånetrafiken, Kalmar LT, Sweden Aug 2017 78 4 Dec 2017 42 12 Sweden Total 138 Total 69 19  Nobina will end contracts involving a total  Nobina will start new contracts involving a total of 69 in-service buses in the next 12 months of 138 in-service buses 10 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

SWEDEN AND DENMARK - REGIONAL TRAFFIC Q1 HIGHLIGHTS Sweden - Net sales Sweden - EBIT SEK million SEK million 1 559 1,546 1 523 1 535  Favorable incentive revenues contribute to 1,493 1,489 top line growth 137 134 1,454 120 117 114  Contract Migration has adverse effect on 89 88 EBIT and operational efficiency is lower than 1,358 1,335 expected in some traffic areas. Temporary 46 47 costs for driver education, effect in Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15/16 16/17 17/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 Denmark - Net sales Denmark - EBIT Q1 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million  Net sales increased as a result of increased volumes in existing contracts 139 137 133 131 130 129 126 126 126 10  EBIT slightly below last year level and 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 includes supplier quality costs. Last year -5 included temporary one-off VAT refund Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15/16 16/17 17/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 11 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

FINLAND AND NORWAY - REGIONAL TRAFFIC Q1 HIGHLIGHTS Finland - Net sales Finland - EBIT SEK million SEK million  Net sales in line with last year 272 269 264 263 259 260 27  EBIT significantly higher than last year with 245 25 23 221 212 22 22 well managed driver utilization and efficiency 17 14  Extra traffic due to metro delays in Helsinki 12 continues 7 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15/16 16/17 17/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 Norway - Net sales Norway - EBIT Q1 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million  Net sales increased compared to last year 11 11 11 10 from started contracts in the period and 265 261 -1 258 240 233 volume increases in existing contracts 229 227 229 -2 222 0 0 -11  EBIT affected by start-up costs and low efficiency in Tromsö Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15/16 16/17 17/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 12 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

SWEBUS Swebus - Net sales Swebus - EBIT Q1 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million  Net sales decreased due to continued 95 10 87 lower express bus volumes 9 68 66 63  EBIT well below last year due to lost 62 59 58 57 1 -2 -2 volumes and limited possibilities to -3 -3 0 mitigate -8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15/16 16/17 17/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 13 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18

RESULTS KEY POINTS Q1 Q1 YTD YTD SEK million Change Change 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17  Net sales growth based on passenger driven revenue and Net sales 2,276 2,224 52 2,276 2,224 52 extra traffic, offset by negative EBITDAR 255 304 255 304 -49 -49 contract migration effects from % of net sales 11.2% 13.7% 11.2% 13.7% last year EBITDA 243 293 243 293 -50 -50 % of net sales 10.7% 13.2% 10.7% 13.2%  EBT margin down to 2.1% for EBIT 87 121 87 121 the quarter due to contract -34 -34 % of net sales 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 5.4% migration, low efficiency and accruals Interest income - 1 -1 - 1 -1 Interest expenses -34 -36 2 -34 -36 2  One-off cost for staff FX net -3 - -3 -3 - -3 redundancy of SEK 12 million EBT 50 86 -36 50 86 -36 % of net sales 2.1% 3.9% 2.1% 3.9% Tax -15 -17 2 -15 -17 2 Earnings after tax 35 69 -34 35 69 -34 14 Nobina investor presentation, Q1, 17/18