National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch August 12, 2016 12:00 P.M. Contents Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops Corn


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SLIDE 1

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch

August 12, 2016

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops Corn Peaches Dry Beans Soybeans Apples Tobacco Cotton Pears Sugarbeets Wheat Grapes Sugarcane Oats Hops Barley Summer Potatoes Sorghum Alfalfa & Other Hay Rice Peanuts

Contents

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Ag Yield Objective Yield Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat Sample Size 22,144 4,544 Collection Period July 29 – Aug 8 July 25 – Aug 1

Survey Overview

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SLIDE 4

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season Corn Planted Mil Ac 94.1 NC +7.0 Harvested Mil Ac 86.6 NC +7.2 Yield Bu/Ac 175.1 NA +4.0 Production Bil Bu 15.2 NA +11.4

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9.23 9.21 9.76 9.43 9.92 9.50 8.97 10.09 11.8 11.1 10.5 13.0 12.0 13.1 12.4 12.3 10.8 13.8 14.2 13.6 15.2

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Billion Bushels

Corn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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175.1 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Bushels per Acre

Corn for Grain Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Aug-16

0.260 0.270 0.280 0.290 0.300 0.310 0.320 0.330 0.340 0.350 0.360 0.370 25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Lbs/Ear Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield Region

Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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SLIDE 9

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season Soybeans Planted Mil Ac 83.7 NC +1.3 Harvested Mil Ac 83.0 NC +1.5 Yield Bu/Ac 48.9 NA +1.9 Production Bil Bu 4.06 NA +3.3

August 2016 Crop Production

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2.38 2.69 2.74 2.65 2.76 2.89 2.76 2.45 3.12 3.07 3.20 2.68 2.97 3.36 3.33 3.10 3.04 3.36 3.93 3.93 4.06

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Billion Bushels

Soybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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48.9 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Bushels per Acre

Soybean Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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SLIDE 12

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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SLIDE 13

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season All Cotton Planted Mil Ac 10.0 NC +16.8 Harvested Mil Ac 9.53 NA +18.0 Yield Lb/Ac 800 NA +4.4 Production Mil Bls 15.9 NA +23.2

August 2016 Crop Production

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10.0 9.53

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Million Acres

All Cotton Acres

United States

Planted Harvested USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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18.9 18.8 13.9 17.0 17.2 20.3 17.2 18.3 23.3 23.9 21.6 19.2 12.8 12.2 18.1 15.6 17.3 12.9 16.3 12.9 15.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Million Bales

All Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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800 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Pounds per Acre

All Cotton Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Winter Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 30.2 NC

  • 6.5

Yield Bu/Ac 54.9 +1.9 +29.2 Production Bil Bu 1.66 +1.8 +21.0 Spring Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 11.8 NC

  • 8.5

Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +3.9 +4.3 Production Mil Bu 571 +3.8

  • 4.6

Durum Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 2.08 NC +9.8 Yield Bu/Ac 44.1 +10.8 +1.4 Production Mil Bu 91.7 +10.8 +11.2 All Wheat Production Bil Bu 2.32 +2.6 +13.1

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

0.530 0.540 0.550 0.560 0.570 0.580 0.590 0.600 0.610 0.620 0.630 0.640 0.650 0.660 0.670 0.680 0.690 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Grams/Head Heads Per Square Foot

Wheat Objective Yield Region

Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight

Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)

USDA-NASS 8-12-16 NASS

Estimate

Average

Of Expectations

High

Of Expectations

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Oats Mil Bu 76.9 +0.3

  • 14.2

Barley Mil Bu 190 +3.8

  • 11.5

Sorghum Mil Bu 475 NA

  • 20.5

Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 61.5 NA +4.3 Other Hay Mil Tons 79.0 NA +4.7 Rice Mil Cwt 244 NA +27.0 Peanuts Bil Lbs 6.11 NA

  • 1.6
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% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season All Tobacco Mil Lbs 697 NA

  • 2.7

Dry Beans Mil Cwt 29.5 NA

  • 2.0

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.0 NA +1.8 Sugarcane Mil Tons 33.2 NA +2.8 Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 19.2 NA +22.1

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production

% Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Peaches Thou Tons 807 NA

  • 4.8

Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA +4.1 Pears Thou Tons 782 NA

  • 4.7

Grapes Mil Tons 7.82 NA +1.9 Hops Mil Lbs 91.8 NA +16.4

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USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Release Date Report Title August 19 Cattle on Feed August 26 Rice Stocks August 31 Agricultural Prices September 1 CAIR: Cotton CAIR: Fats & Oils CAIR: Grain Crushings September 12 Crop Production

Upcoming Reports

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United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127 800-727-9540 nass@nass.usda.gov