National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch August 12, 2016 12:00 P.M.

Contents Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops Corn Peaches Dry Beans Soybeans Apples Tobacco Cotton Pears Sugarbeets Wheat Grapes Sugarcane Oats Hops Barley Summer Potatoes Sorghum Alfalfa & Other Hay Rice Peanuts USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Survey Overview Ag Yield Objective Yield Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, Crops Included Field Crops and Winter Wheat Sample Size 22,144 4,544 July 29 – Aug 8 July 25 – Aug 1 Collection Period USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season Corn Planted Mil Ac 94.1 NC +7.0 Harvested Mil Ac 86.6 NC +7.2 Yield Bu/Ac 175.1 NA +4.0 Production Bil Bu 15.2 NA +11.4 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Corn for Grain Production Billion Bushels United States 16.0 15.2 14.2 13.8 14.0 13.6 13.1 13.0 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.8 12.0 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.09 9.92 9.76 10.0 9.50 9.43 9.23 9.21 8.97 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Corn for Grain Yield Bushels per Acre United States 180.0 175.1 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Corn Objective Yield Region Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight Lbs/Ear 0.370 Aug-16 0.360 2004 0.350 2009 2014 0.340 2005 2007 2008 2015 2006 0.330 2010 2013 0.320 0.310 2011 0.300 0.290 0.280 0.270 2012 0.260 25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Ears Per Acre Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season Soybeans Planted Mil Ac 83.7 NC +1.3 Harvested Mil Ac 83.0 NC +1.5 Yield Bu/Ac 48.9 NA +1.9 Production Bil Bu 4.06 NA +3.3 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Soybean Production Billion Bushels United States 4.50 4.06 3.93 3.93 4.00 3.50 3.36 3.36 3.33 3.20 3.12 3.07 3.10 3.04 2.97 2.89 3.00 2.76 2.69 2.76 2.74 2.68 2.65 2.45 2.38 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Soybean Yield Bushels per Acre United States 50.0 48.9 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Estimate Season All Cotton Planted Mil Ac 10.0 NC +16.8 Harvested Mil Ac 9.53 NA +18.0 Yield Lb/Ac 800 NA +4.4 Production Mil Bls 15.9 NA +23.2 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

All Cotton Acres Million Acres United States 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 9.53 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Planted Harvested USDA-NASS 8-12-16

All Cotton Production Million Bales United States 30.0 25.0 23.9 23.3 21.6 20.3 20.0 19.2 18.9 18.8 18.3 18.1 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.3 15.9 15.6 15.0 13.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.2 10.0 5.0 0.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

All Cotton Yield Pounds per Acre United States 900 850 800 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Winter Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 30.2 NC -6.5 Yield Bu/Ac 54.9 +1.9 +29.2 Production Bil Bu 1.66 +1.8 +21.0 Spring Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 11.8 NC -8.5 Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +3.9 +4.3 Production Mil Bu 571 +3.8 -4.6 Durum Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 2.08 NC +9.8 Yield Bu/Ac 44.1 +10.8 +1.4 Production Mil Bu 91.7 +10.8 +11.2 All Wheat Production Bil Bu 2.32 +2.6 +13.1 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Wheat Objective Yield Region Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight Grams/Head 0.690 0.680 0.670 Aug-16 0.660 Jul-16 0.650 0.640 2010 0.630 0.620 2004 0.610 0.600 2008 Jun-16 0.590 2012 2009 0.580 2006 0.570 2011 2005 0.560 2007 2014 2015 0.550 2013 0.540 0.530 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Average NASS High Heads Per Square Foot Of Expectations Estimate Of Expectations Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006) USDA-NASS 8-12-16

USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Oats Mil Bu 76.9 +0.3 -14.2 Barley Mil Bu 190 +3.8 -11.5 Sorghum Mil Bu 475 NA -20.5 Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 61.5 NA +4.3 Other Hay Mil Tons 79.0 NA +4.7 Rice Mil Cwt 244 NA +27.0 Peanuts Bil Lbs 6.11 NA -1.6 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season All Tobacco Mil Lbs 697 NA -2.7 Dry Beans Mil Cwt 29.5 NA -2.0 Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.0 NA +1.8 Sugarcane Mil Tons 33.2 NA +2.8 Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 19.2 NA +22.1 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

August 2016 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit August Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Peaches Thou Tons 807 NA -4.8 Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA +4.1 Pears Thou Tons 782 NA -4.7 Grapes Mil Tons 7.82 NA +1.9 Hops Mil Lbs 91.8 NA +16.4 USDA-NASS 8-12-16

Upcoming Reports Release Date Report Title August 19 Cattle on Feed August 26 Rice Stocks August 31 Agricultural Prices CAIR: Cotton September 1 CAIR: Fats & Oils CAIR: Grain Crushings September 12 Crop Production USDA-NASS 8-12-16

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions 202-720-2127 800-727-9540 nass@nass.usda.gov