N A S S FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

N A S S FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE USDA - NASS Revealed: Procedures in setting Crop, Livestock and Economic estimates. Brad Schwab Mark Schleusener Director Deputy Director Illinois Field Office Illinois Field Office

Presentation Goals • Help you to understand NASS methods. • Help you to have more confidence in NASS estimates and forecasts. • Assure you that your reports are confidential. • Encourage future responses to our projects.

NASS Mission Statement • The National Agricultural Statistics Service provides timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.

NASS Structure • 46 Field Offices, partnering with state Dept of Ag • Staff have degrees in agricultural, math, statistics or computers • HQ in Washington, D. C. – National Operations Center in St. Louis • No political appointees – No changes with elections

NASS Projects • Crop surveys - Acreage, yield , production, and grains in storage • State, districts, and counties • Livestock – Inventory, breeding intentions • Economic – Crop prices, livestock prices, feed, seed, fertilizer, land, etc • Census of Agriculture – crops, livestock, economic

State Level Acreage

Acreage Estimation • March Intentions survey • June Acreage report • September Small Grains summary • December Crop Production Annual Summary

June Area Frame Survey Questions • Total land and total cropland • Cattle, hogs, sheep, horses • GMO seed • Grains in storage • Computer and internet use • Economic size and type of farm

FSA Data • We adjust our planted acreage estimates towards FSA totals in October for row crops • Additional changes can be if needed.

NASS and FSA • NASS is faster than FSA because we use samples. • FSA has data from many more farms – So, it takes longer, and it is more expensive. • In October, NASS will make small acreage adjustments towards FSA totals, if needed.

Yield Forecasting

Two Basic Methods • Ask the farmer (subjective) – Mail, phone, personal interview • Count the crop (objective) – Corn ears, soybean pods, wheat heads – We use a lab to determine moisture content and shelling fraction.

NASS Corn Forecasts

Wrap up Yield Forecasts • This is our track record. • We can send you the spreadsheets used to make those charts. • We can also show you how to get the data from QuickStats. • 800-622-9865 • nass-il@nass.usda.gov

C orn for G rain Y ield s, N ovem b er 1, 2011 B u sh els an d C h an ge F rom P reviou s M on th 210 N C 110 -11 160 -5 160 127 135 N C -3 -4 148 N C 125 171 109 -5 160 2 N C 159 N C 127 145 156 5 2 N C -3 190 120 105 119 100 5 -7 115 N C N C 139 -5 N C N C 82 136 -2 80 -1 140 55 -5 -2 -2 152# 107 118 N C N C U .S. 146.7 N C 105 -1.4 135 -7 N C # R ecord H igh N C = N o C hange USDA-NASS 11-9-11

Soybean Yields, November 1, 2011 Bushels and Change From Previous Month 28 -1 40 -1 47 43 38 2 1 -1 44 NC 35 50.5 1 40 NC 53 -2 -1 46 39 42 NC 1 46 NC NC 39 39# NC 27 37 NC NC 39 NC NC 31 34 NC -1 17 NC 37 26 NC NC 23 33 2 41# U.S. 41.3 3 1 -0.2 15 NC 37 1 # Record High NC = No Change USDA-NASS 11-9-11

County Estimates

County Estimates • Additional farmer reports (acres & yield) – 10,000 for row crops – 3,900 for small grains • FSA data for county acreage • RMA data (abandoned acres) • Satellite imagery (acres & yield)

Livestock Estimation

1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 500,000 0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 IL Cattle Inventory 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 IL Hog Inventory 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Census of Agriculture

Census of Agriculture • Every 5 years • Next Census will be mailed in December 2012. • Reference year is 2012. • Content is broader than any of our surveys – All livestock species – All crops – Sales and expenses – Demographics

Confidentiality • Names, addresses, phone numbers, etc. are protected by Title 7 of the US Code, Section 2276 • CIPSEA (Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act) prohibits public disclosure of individual information. • Personal information, including reported data are protected from legal subpoena and FOIA (Fredom Of Information Act).

Penalties • NASS employees and contractors (enumerators) are subject to the following penalties • Five years in jail • $250,000 fine, or both • NASS employees cannot make futures trades

Data Security • Passwords • Encryption • Training staff • Suppression process – For some commodities, we cannot publish the county total. – We suppress and don’t publish anything.

Economic Statistics Program

Economic surveys • Prices Received - Monthly and Seasonal Average • Prices Paid • Prices Received and Paid Indexes • Land Values, Cash Rents • Wage Rates

Economic Estimates Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)

ARMS Phase III

www.nass.usda.gov

Thank You 800-622-9865 nass-il@nass.usda.gov