N A S S FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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N A S S FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 04, 2023 171 likes •532 views

N A S S FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE USDA - NASS Revealed: Procedures in setting Crop, Livestock and Economic estimates. Brad Schwab Mark Schleusener Director Deputy Director Illinois Field Office

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USDA - NASS Revealed: Procedures in setting Crop, Livestock and Economic estimates.

Brad Schwab Director Illinois Field Office Mark Schleusener Deputy Director Illinois Field Office

N A S S

FACT FINDERS FOR AGRICULTURE

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

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SLIDE 2

Presentation Goals

  • Help you to understand NASS methods.
  • Help you to have more confidence in NASS

estimates and forecasts.

  • Assure you that your reports are confidential.
  • Encourage future responses to our projects.
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SLIDE 3

NASS Mission Statement

  • The National Agricultural

Statistics Service provides timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.

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SLIDE 4

NASS Structure

  • 46 Field Offices, partnering with state Dept of Ag
  • Staff have degrees in agricultural, math,

statistics or computers

  • HQ in Washington, D. C.

– National Operations Center in St. Louis

  • No political appointees

– No changes with elections

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SLIDE 5

NASS Projects

  • Crop surveys - Acreage, yield, production, and

grains in storage

  • State, districts, and counties
  • Livestock – Inventory, breeding intentions
  • Economic – Crop prices, livestock prices, feed,

seed, fertilizer, land, etc

  • Census of Agriculture – crops, livestock,

economic

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SLIDE 6
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SLIDE 7

State Level Acreage

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SLIDE 8

Acreage Estimation

  • March Intentions survey
  • June Acreage report
  • September Small Grains summary
  • December Crop Production Annual Summary
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SLIDE 9
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SLIDE 10

June Area Frame Survey Questions

  • Total land and total cropland
  • Cattle, hogs, sheep, horses
  • GMO seed
  • Grains in storage
  • Computer and internet use
  • Economic size and type of farm
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SLIDE 11

FSA Data

  • We adjust our planted acreage estimates

towards FSA totals in October for row crops

  • Additional changes can be if needed.
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SLIDE 12

NASS and FSA

  • NASS is faster than FSA because we use

samples.

  • FSA has data from many more farms

– So, it takes longer, and it is more expensive.

  • In October, NASS will make small acreage

adjustments towards FSA totals, if needed.

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SLIDE 13

Yield Forecasting

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SLIDE 14

Two Basic Methods

  • Ask the farmer (subjective)

– Mail, phone, personal interview

  • Count the crop (objective)

– Corn ears, soybean pods, wheat heads – We use a lab to determine moisture content and shelling fraction.

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SLIDE 15

NASS Corn Forecasts

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SLIDE 16
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Wrap up Yield Forecasts

  • This is our track record.
  • We can send you the spreadsheets used to make

those charts.

  • We can also show you how to get the data from

QuickStats.

  • 800-622-9865
  • nass-il@nass.usda.gov
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SLIDE 18

USDA-NASS 11-9-11

C orn for G rain Y ield s, N ovem b er 1, 2011

B u sh els an d C h an ge F rom P reviou s M on th

107 N C 140

  • 2

190 5 120

  • 7

127 2 152# N C 156

  • 3

145 N C 171 2 100

  • 5

139 N C 135 N C 105 N C 148 N C 160

  • 5

118 N C 115 N C 160 N C 125

  • 5

127

  • 3

82

  • 2

110

  • 11

159 5 80

  • 5

109 N C 55

  • 2

U .S. 146.7

  • 1.4

# R ecord H igh N C = N o C hange 135

  • 4

136

  • 1

105

  • 7

119 N C 210 N C 160 N C

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USDA-NASS 11-9-11

Soybean Yields, November 1, 2011

Bushels and Change From Previous Month

33 3 37 NC 39 1 23 2 46 NC 42 NC 50.5 NC 27 NC 39 NC 37 1 39 NC 44 NC 40

  • 1

41# 1 37 NC 53

  • 1

35 1 43 1 31 NC 28

  • 1

46 NC 17 NC 40

  • 2

26 NC U.S. 41.3

  • 0.2

# Record High NC = No Change 38

  • 1

34

  • 1

15 NC 39# NC 47 2

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SLIDE 20

County Estimates

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SLIDE 21

County Estimates

  • Additional farmer reports (acres & yield)

– 10,000 for row crops – 3,900 for small grains

  • FSA data for county acreage
  • RMA data (abandoned acres)
  • Satellite imagery (acres & yield)
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Livestock Estimation

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SLIDE 23

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

IL Cattle Inventory

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SLIDE 24

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

IL Hog Inventory

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SLIDE 25

Census of Agriculture

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SLIDE 26

Census of Agriculture

  • Every 5 years
  • Next Census will be mailed in December 2012.
  • Reference year is 2012.
  • Content is broader than any of our surveys

– All livestock species – All crops – Sales and expenses – Demographics

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SLIDE 27

Confidentiality

  • Names, addresses, phone numbers, etc. are

protected by Title 7 of the US Code, Section 2276

  • CIPSEA (Confidential Information Protection

and Statistical Efficiency Act) prohibits public disclosure of individual information.

  • Personal information, including reported data

are protected from legal subpoena and FOIA (Fredom Of Information Act).

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SLIDE 28

Penalties

  • NASS employees and contractors

(enumerators) are subject to the following penalties

  • Five years in jail
  • $250,000 fine, or both
  • NASS employees cannot make futures trades
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SLIDE 29

Data Security

  • Passwords
  • Encryption
  • Training staff
  • Suppression process

– For some commodities, we cannot publish the county total. – We suppress and don’t publish anything.

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SLIDE 30

Economic Statistics Program

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SLIDE 31
  • Prices Received - Monthly and Seasonal

Average

  • Prices Paid
  • Prices Received and Paid Indexes
  • Land Values, Cash Rents
  • Wage Rates

Economic surveys

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SLIDE 32

Economic Estimates

Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)

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SLIDE 33

ARMS Phase III

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SLIDE 34

www.nass.usda.gov

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Thank You 800-622-9865

nass-il@nass.usda.gov