Monetary policy decision February 2019 Economic outlook and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 12, 2023 217 likes •351 views

Monetary policy decision February 2019 Economic outlook and inflation prospects broadly unchanged Good conditions for inflation on-target going forward Global economy in a calmer phase Growth has been high Unemployment has fallen 14 14

SLIDE 1

Monetary policy decision

February 2019

SLIDE 2

Economic outlook and inflation prospects broadly unchanged Good conditions for inflation on-target going forward

SLIDE 3

Global economy in a calmer phase

Growth has been high Unemployment has fallen

Annual percentage change and share of labour force. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, OECD and the Riksbank 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 United states Euro area

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Indicators confirm picture of slower development in the period ahead

Purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector. Figures over 50 denote growth. Source: ISM, IHS Markit and Swedbank

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Uncertainty abroad

Strength of the European economy Trade conflict between the US and China Brexit

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Weaker housing investment to subdue Swedish growth this year

Lower GDP growth rate going forward Construction declining from a high level

Quarterly change in per cent in annualised terms and share of GDP in current prices respectively, four-quarterly moving average. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

SLIDE 7

Economic situation remains strong

Strong demand for labour Historically high employment rate

Net figures and annual per cent of population aged 15-74 years. Recruitment plans refer to expectations of the number of employed in the business sector three months ahead. Broken blue lines represents historical average between 2000 and 2018.

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Monetary policy is forward-looking

Annual percentage change. The contribution of energy prices to the CPIF in the forecast is calculated as the annual percentage change in energy prices multiplied by their current weight in the CPIF.

Sources. Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
1

1 2 3

1 2 3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Energy prices contribution to the CPIF CPIF

SLIDE 9

Good conditions for on-target inflation, even when energy prices make smaller contribution

Strong Swedish economic activity Rising cost pressures Inflation expectations at 2 per cent Gradually rising inflation abroad

SLIDE 10

Interest rate to be raised slowly going forward

Per cent Source: The Riksbank

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The rate path is a forecast, not a promise

Risks and uncertainty abroad
Strength of the domestic economy
Need to be vigilant about inflationary pressures

Monetary policy adapted according to economic outlook and inflation prospects

SLIDE 12