Monetary Policy Committee Price ce Develop lopments ments and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
monetary policy committee
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Monetary Policy Committee Price ce Develop lopments ments and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 28, 2023 237 likes •505 views

Monetary Policy Committee Price ce Develop lopments ments and Outlook; ok; Monet etary ary and Balanc ance e of P Paym yment ents Develo elopment pments 30 September 2013 0 FOOD PRICES (FAO database) On account of improved supply,

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Monetary Policy Committee

Price ce Develop lopments ments and Outlook;

  • k;

Monet etary ary and Balanc ance e of P Paym yment ents Develo elopment pments

30 September 2013

slide-2
SLIDE 2

1

FOOD PRICES (FAO database)

On account of improved supply, FFPI reached 201.8 in Aug-3. Since reaching an intra-year peak of 215.5 in Apr-13, it has continuously declined. It is trending below the 2012 level; Even after adjusting the weights to reflect the imports structure /food component of the CPI (putting the weight of sugar to zero among others), the FFPI- adjusted also pointed to a continuous decline since Ap-13 due to significant weight of cereals

slide-3
SLIDE 3

2

FOOD PRICES (FAO database)

Cereals and oils & fats continued to fall while dairy, meat and sugar rose slightly

slide-4
SLIDE 4

3

Oil Prices-monthly averages

80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sep/11 Oct/11 Nov/11 Dec/11 Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 US$ per barrel ICE BRENT NYMEX 103.3 94.8 110.4 106.5

slide-5
SLIDE 5

4

Other Commodity Prices

slide-6
SLIDE 6

5

World - Inflation

slide-7
SLIDE 7

6

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS

slide-8
SLIDE 8

7

May to August: What happened?

2.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.1 4.1 4.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13

slide-9
SLIDE 9

8

Cumulative Monthly Changes May to August

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

DIVISION 01 - FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC …

6.7 4.1 6.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.6

  • 1.2

DIVISION 02 - ALCOHOLIC BEV. & TOBACCO

20.8 9.0 1.7 0.4

  • 0.2

0.4 0.0

  • 0.2

DIVISION 03 - CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR

2.3 2.0 0.8 4.4 2.5 2.4 1.8 0.9

DIVISION 04 - HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, ….

4.4 0.9

  • 0.3

0.2

  • 0.1

0.5 0.0

  • 0.6

DIVISION 05 - FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIP..& …

3.6 2.4 2.7 1.5 2.1 1.1 1.6

  • 0.1

DIVISION 06 - HEALTH

3.1 5.6 3.9 1.0 2.7 0.1 2.9 0.3

DIVISION 07 - TRANSPORT

8.6 6.0 12.7 1.8 3.0 0.4

  • 0.4

0.4

DIVISION 08 - COMMUNICATION

  • 3.9

0.0

  • 3.2

0.6 0.0

  • 0.1

0.0 0.1

DIVISION 09 - RECREATION & CULTURE

3.2

  • 0.9
  • 0.3

0.6 0.5 1.0

  • 0.4

3.4

DIVISION 10 - EDUCATION

0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2

DIVISION 11 - RESTAURANTS & HOTELS

14.3 4.7 5.2 1.0 2.6 0.6 0.6 0.3

DIVISION 12 - MISC. GOODS & SERVICES

3.3 2.9 2.8 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.9

  • 0.3
slide-10
SLIDE 10

9

Measures of Consumer Inflation

Aug-11 Aug-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 12-Month Average 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 Year-on-Year Inflation 6.5 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.1 CORE1 5.7 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 CORE2 4.8 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 Food 6.1 2.0 1.1 3.1 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.1 1.6 Goods 6.7 4.0 2.9 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 Services 5.8 3.4 3.9 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.7

slide-11
SLIDE 11

10

Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation

slide-12
SLIDE 12

11

Year-on-Year and CORE2

slide-13
SLIDE 13

12

Mean Expectations – Time Horizons

slide-14
SLIDE 14

13

Inflation Forecasts: Expert Judgement

Year-on-Year Headline Dec-13 (Tax AB&T, Adm. P) 4.5 - 4.9 3.7 - 3.8 Dec-13 (No Tax & Adm. P) 3.7 - 4.0 3.5 - 3.6 Jun-14 (Tax AB&T, Adm. P) 4.9 - 5.5 4.2 - 4.5 Jun-14 (No Tax & Adm. P) 4.1 - 4.6 3.6 - 3.9

slide-15
SLIDE 15

14

Inflation Convergence in SADC

African Monetary Cooperation Programme Southern Africa Development Community Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Stage III: 2009-2012 2009-2012 Period: 2005-2010 Inflation Rate < 5% 5% inflation Rate by 2012 Annual Inflation not exceeding 5% Stage IV: 2013 - 2015 2013 - 2018 Inflation Rate < 3% Inflation Rate < 3%

slide-16
SLIDE 16

15

MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS

slide-17
SLIDE 17

16

Annual Growth Rate of Broad Money Liabilities (BML) and Depository Corporations’ (DCs) Loans to Private Sector (per cent)

12.8 11.7 10.2 7.9 7.3

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

BML DCs’ loans to private sector

slide-18
SLIDE 18

17

17

Money Multiplier (BML/MB)

6.00 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13

slide-19
SLIDE 19

18

Real Interest Rate

Real interest rates= nominal savings rate adjusted for inflation rate

slide-20
SLIDE 20

19

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS

slide-21
SLIDE 21

20

Current A/c and its components

20

Rs Million Q2-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Current Account

  • 10,952
  • 4,223
  • 8,639
  • 10,984
  • 11,703
  • 6,877
  • 7,445

Goods

  • 15,401
  • 17,194
  • 18,095
  • 17,157
  • 20,652
  • 15,217
  • 14,937

Exports

17,709 18,402 20,434 19,751 21,772 20,361 21,746

Imports

  • 33,110
  • 35,596
  • 38,529
  • 36,908
  • 42,424
  • 35,578
  • 36,683

Services

4,221 9,632 7,452 4,483 7,419 6,133 6,703

Transportation, net

  • 1,594
  • 1,239
  • 1,226
  • 1,910
  • 1,942
  • 1,517
  • 1,839

Travel, net

6,588 11,193 7,148 5,427 9,614 8,852 6,910

credit

9,355 13,768 9,780 8,406 12,424 12,064 9,991

debit

  • 2,767
  • 2,575
  • 2,632
  • 2,979
  • 2,810
  • 3,212
  • 3,081

Other services, net

  • 773
  • 322

1,530 966

  • 253
  • 1,202

1,632

Income

  • 839

1,762 1,456 1,646

  • 561

2,115 182

Current transfers

1,067 1,577 548 44 2,091 93 607

slide-22
SLIDE 22

21

Savings and GDFCF to GDP Ratio

22.5 26.4 21.2 28.3 21.5 13.9 15.1

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ratio GDFCF to GDPmp Ratio GNS to GDPmp

slide-23
SLIDE 23

22

Financing of the Current Account

22

Rs Million Q2-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Capital account, net

  • 16
  • 40
  • 73
  • 45
  • 83
  • 8
  • 48

Financial account, net

8,616 5,597 10,173 8,809 13,578 8,240 5,070

Direct investment, net

33,202 18,601

  • 56,470
  • 543

21,095

  • 26,478
  • 26,481

Portfolio investment, net

65,062 79,774 80,317 73,378 71,772 80,245 82,837

Other investment, net

  • 87,534
  • 94,392
  • 10,705
  • 62,921
  • 75,708
  • 40,523
  • 40,640

Reserve Assets

  • 2,114

1,614

  • 2,970
  • 1,105
  • 3,580
  • 5,004
  • 10,646

Net Errors and Omissions

2,352

  • 1,334
  • 1,460

2,220

  • 1,792
  • 1,356

2,423

slide-24
SLIDE 24

23

Gross Official International Reserves

23

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Aug-13

Rs 100.7 bn, 5.3 m Rs 105.0 bn, 5.6 mths, end

slide-25
SLIDE 25

24

Thank you

24