Modelling challenges in the POEM project ETSAP Nov 9, 2011 Erik - - PDF document

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Modelling challenges in the POEM project ETSAP Nov 9, 2011 Erik - - PDF document

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Department of Energy Technology Modelling challenges in the POEM project ETSAP Nov 9, 2011 Erik Ahlgren Chalmers ahleri@chalmers.se Department of Energy Technology Outline Harmonization & MAC curves Model interactions Burden

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Department of Energy Technology

Modelling challenges in the POEM project

ETSAP Nov 9, 2011 Erik Ahlgren Chalmers ahleri@chalmers.se

Department of Energy Technology

Outline

  • Harmonization & MAC curves
  • Model interactions
  • Burden sharing
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Department of Energy Technology

Policy Options to engage EMerging Asian economies in a post-Kyoto regime – POEM (EC FP7)

Project aim: contribute to knowledge on consequences of different ways of reaching both development and climate

  • bjectives in India and China.

Hypothesis: it is only possible to achieve both objectives through combinations of policies and measures at international and national levels.

Department of Energy Technology

CO2 emissions China

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Department of Energy Technology Department of Energy Technology

Issues

  • Can the different objectives be reached

simultaneously in a clever way ?

  • What is the “true” mitigation cost of

different pathways ?

  • Are cost and benefits path dependent ?
  • Potential impact of national and

international policies?

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Department of Energy Technology

Climate or development first?

Department of Energy Technology

Participating organisations

  • Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
  • Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The

Netherlands

  • Tshinghua University, China
  • Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,

Chinese Academy of Sciences – Beijing Institute of Technology, China

  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany
  • Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
  • Indian Institute of Economic Growth, India
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Department of Energy Technology

Global and national models

  • the global climate model FAIR connected to

global energy model TIMER,

  • the global GE model DART,
  • the global population and health model

PHOENIX,

  • national macro-economic models,
  • national energy system MARKAL models.

Department of Energy Technology

Where to start?

  • Model comparisons
  • Model harmonizations

– GDP – Fuel prices – Technology characteristics – MAC curves

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Department of Energy Technology

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Million persons

Global - Population

PBL IfW IIASA-B1 IIASA-B2 IIASA-A2r

Department of Energy Technology 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Million persons

India - Population

PBL IfW IIMA IIASA-B1 IIASA-B2 IIASA-A2r

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Department of Energy Technology

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 USD 2005

Global average GDP/CAP

PBL IfW IIASA-A2r IIASA-B2 IIASA-B1 IfW-harm 1

Department of Energy Technology

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

USD 2005

GDP/cap - China

PBL IfW BIT Tsinghua IIASA-B1 IIASA-B2 IIASA-A2r IfW-harm 1

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Department of Energy Technology

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

USD 2005

India - GDP/cap

PBL IfW IIMA IIASA-B1 IIASA-B2 IIASA-A2r IfW-harm 1 IEG

Department of Energy Technology

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 US$(2005) per barrel Years

Oil price

IEA-Ref scenario IEA-450 ppm scenario EIA-Medium EIA-High EIA-Low PBL-World IfW-China IfW-India PBL-China PBL-India IIMA IfW-China-harm IfW-India-Harm

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Department of Energy Technology

Non-harmonized

20 40 60 80 100 120 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% CO2 price (US$/tCO2) Abatement (%)

Global

PBL-2020 IfW-2020 PBL-2050 IfW-2050 Department of Energy Technology

Non-harmonized

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% (CO2 price (US$/tCO2) Abatement (%)

China

PBL - 2020 IfW-2020 BIT-2020 PBL - 2050 IfW-2050 BIT-2050 Tsinghua MIT-EPPA-2020

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Department of Energy Technology Department of Energy Technology

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Department of Energy Technology

Burden sharing regimes

Department of Energy Technology

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Department of Energy Technology

Burden sharing regimes – results for China

Department of Energy Technology

Regimes analyzed

  • Intensity targets
  • CDC (common but differentied

convergence)

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Department of Energy Technology

Results to be reported in a year. Thank you.