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Modeling System of Systems Acquisition Nil Kilicay Ergin Paulette Acheson John Colombi Cihan Dagli Penn State University P St t U i it Missouri University of Mi i U i it f Ai F Air Force Institute of I tit t f Mi Missouri

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SLIDE 1

Modeling System of Systems Acquisition

Nil Kilicay‐Ergin Paulette Acheson John Colombi Cihan Dagli P St t U i it Mi i U i it f Ai F I tit t f Mi i U i it f Penn State University PA, USA Missouri University of Science & Technology MO, USA Air Force Institute of Technology OH, USA Missouri University of Science & Technology MO, USA

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SLIDE 2

Outline

  • Introduction
  • Background

Background

  • Research Objectives
  • Research Methodology
  • Generic Model

Generic Model

  • Next Steps
  • Questions

2

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SLIDE 3

Introduction

  • SoS Architecting

– Collaborate with individual systems to leverage y g individual system functionalities – Assumption: SoS participants exhibit nominal Assumption: SoS participants exhibit nominal behavior

  • Deviation from nominal behavior leads to
  • Deviation from nominal behavior leads to

complications and disturbances in system behavior

– Necessary to capture behavioral dimension of SoS – Necessary to capture behavioral dimension of SoS architecting to improve SoS acquisition

3

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SLIDE 4

Background

  • Wave Model for SoS Acquisition

4

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SLIDE 5

Research Objective

  • Model SoS acquisition based on the Wave

Process Model

  • Impact of individual system behavior on SoS

development

  • How do the systems, systems’ interactions, SoS initial

characteristics, and other agents affect:

– Capabilities Actually Developed vs Planned Capabilities – Capabilities Actually Developed vs. Planned Capabilities – Duration of the SoS development

  • Strategies for improving acquisition effectiveness

g p g q

– Decision framework – Test rules of engagement Test rules of engagement

5

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SLIDE 6

Research Methodology

  • Agent‐based modeling

– Environment

  • Rules of engagement
  • Opportunities

Opportunities

  • Threats

– Agents – Agents

  • Autonomous
  • Internal behavior
  • Internal behavior

– Interactions

6

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SLIDE 7

Generic Model

  • Assumptions

Assumptions

– Agents represent systems – The system agents embody themselves and the people (individual stakeholders) responsible for them stakeholders) responsible for them – Model applies to acknowledged SoS

  • Specific agent responsible for the SoS and for coordinating the individual

system agents

– Initial SoS mission is determined – Initial baseline SoS architecture is available

  • Functional and physical architecture
  • Key performance parameters

7

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SLIDE 8

Overall Model

SoS Acquisition Environment SoS Agent

  • National priorities
  • Funding

SoS Agent

Own Process Control Cooperation Management Funding

  • Threat assessments

Agent Interaction Management

S t A t 1 System Agent 1 System Agent 2 System Agent n

Own Process C l Agent Interaction Control te act o Management

8

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SLIDE 9

SoS Agent Behavior

  • 1. Initiate SoS

2 Conduct SoS Analysis

  • 2. Conduct SoS Analysis
  • 3. Develop and Modify Architecture
  • 4. Plan SoS update

5 Implement SoS architecture

  • 5. Implement SoS architecture
  • 6. Continue SoS analysis

First Wave

9

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SLIDE 10

SoS Agent Behavior

Environment O P C t l C ti M t Environment Own Process Control Initiate SoS Cooperation Management Conduct SoS analysis Plan SoS update Develop and modify architecture Implement SoS architecture Agent Interaction Management 10

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SLIDE 11

Individual System Behavior

  • 1. Receive connectivity request from SoS agent

2 E l b d i i

  • 2. Evaluate request based on motivation
  • 3. Reply back to SoS agent

p y g

11

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SLIDE 12

Individual System Behavior

Environment Own Process Control Agent Interaction Management Evaluate SoS request Reply back to SoS agent Receive SoS request 12

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SLIDE 13

Next Steps: Case Study ISR Mission /RPA SoS Case Study ‐ ISR Mission /RPA SoS

  • Individual systems

– Remotely Piloted Aircraft – Datalink (Link 16)/ SATCOM,… – Ground Control Station(s),… – Sensors (Wide Area Search – Gorgon Stare), … ( g ), – Targeting pod – Weapon(s) – Hellfire, JDAM, … p ( ) , ,

13

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SLIDE 14

Next Steps

  • Map generic model to Airborne ISR/RPA SoS

development p

  • Identify and abstract Airborne ISR/RPA SoS

M f f – Measures of performance – Individual system motivations – Events, rules of engagement

14

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SLIDE 15

Acknowledgment

This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC) under Contract H98230‐08‐D‐0171. SERC is a federally funded University Affiliated Research Center managed by Stevens Institute of Technology. y g y gy Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Department of Defense.

15

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SLIDE 16

Questions Questions

16

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SLIDE 17

SoS Environment

External Factors/Variables:

) ( threats funding SoS in changes priorities National f E

Changes in external environment at time T:

) , , ( threats funding SoS in changes priorities National f E 

T

External factors/variable at time T:

T T

E E   SoS Environment 17

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SLIDE 18

Initiate SoS

Simulation time: t Wave interval: Epoch Wave rhythm time: T T= Epoch . t SoS desired capabilities: SoS desired capabilities: Weighted value for SoS capability: ) ,..., , ( .

2 1 n i

C C C C SoS  SoS desired performance parameters:

S S A t

) ,..., , ( .

2 1 n i

w w w w SoS  ) ( P P P P SoS  Initial SoS Measures:

SoS Agent

i i i i i i n ij

w SoS a P SoS a C SoS a a M SoS . , . , . where ] [ .

3 2 1 3

   

) ,..., , ( .

2 1 n i

P P P P SoS 

18

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SLIDE 19

Conduct SoS Feasibility Analysis

Identify set of individual systems to satisfy the target SoS measures: Identify set of individual systems to satisfy the target SoS measures: Allocate SoS capabilities to individual systems

) ..., , ( . .

2 1 n i

S S S S System M SoS  

For i=1..n For j=1..n

j i j i j i i i

S S S S S S C Callocated SoS    and where ) , ( .

,

Deadline for each allocated SoS capability: Funding for each allocated SoS capability:

) ..., , ( .

3 2 1

d d d d SoS

i 

Funding for each allocated SoS capability: Initial baseline SoS Architecture:

) ..., , ( .

3 2 1

f f f f SoS

i 

SoS Request for individual systems:

SoS Agent

) . ( where ] [ .

n n i ij ij

Callocated SoS a a A SoS  

) (

i i i

d SoS f SoS A SoS f R SoS  ) . , . , . ( .

i i i

d SoS f SoS A SoS f R SoS

19

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SLIDE 20

Develop and Modify Architecture

  • Receive information from individual systems:

(cooperation, availability, performance, capability)

  • Update SoS baseline architecture

i

n Informatio System.

Architecture update factor:

) . (

i T

n Informatio System f Beta 

SoS architecture at time T:

T T

Beta A SoS A SoS   . . SoS Agent 20

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SLIDE 21

Plan SoS Update

At time T:

  • Adjust/Update SoS Measures

Capability update factor: SoS Measures at time T:

Al h S S M S S M S S

Performance update factor:

  • Adjust wave rhythm interval:

) ,..., , ( .

2 1 n i

C C C C SoS      ) ( S S    

T T

Alpha SoS M SoS M SoS . . .

0 

Adj b d / h d l f

) ,..., , ( .

2 1 n i

P P P P SoS      ) . , ( .

T t i

Gap SoS E f C SoS   ) ( Gap SoS E f P SoS   ) . , (

T T

Gap SoS E f Epoch 

SoS Measures update factor:

  • Adjust budget/schedule for

allocated capabilities

) . , ( .

T t i

Gap SoS E f P SoS  

n ij T

a Alpha SoS 

 where

] [ .

2

) . , ( .

T T i

Gap SoS E f d SoS 

At T=0

SoS Agent

i i i i

P SoS a C SoS a     . and .

2 1

T

Alpha SoS ) . , ( . ) (

T T i T T i

Gap SoS E f f SoS p f  .

T

Alpha SoS 21

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SLIDE 22

Implement SoS Architecture

  • Evaluate current SoS architecture against initial baseline

Architecture At ti T At time T: Gap Analysis:

) ( M S S M S S f G S S ) . . ( .

1 

 

T T T

M SoS M SoS f Gap SoS

SoS Agent 22

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SLIDE 23

Evaluate SoS Request

Individual System: System performance: S stem capabilit

i

S System.

i

p System. S

System capability: Willingness to cooperate: Ability to cooperate:

i

c System.

i

s willingnes System.

i

ability System.

y p Receive request from SoS agent:

i

ability System.

i

R SoS.

Evaluate SoS request:

) . , . , . ( .

i i i i

R SoS ability System s willingnes System f coop System  Individual System

i i i i

    cooperate not if cooperate if 1 .

i

coop System 23

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SLIDE 24

Reply back to SoS Agent

If

1 . 

i

coop System ) . , . , . ( .

i i i i

av System p System c System n Informatio System 

where system availability at time T= else

i i i i

) . ( .

i i

R SoS P av System 

time to cooperate:

i i

d SoS t t cooptime System . where .   Individual System 24