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- Introduction: System dynamics modeling
- Background: Hydrologic-social system research
- Summary: NM WRRI research team efforts
- Applications: Modeling for transboundary regions
MODELING HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL SYSTEMS IN TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MODELING HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL SYSTEMS IN TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MODELING HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL SYSTEMS IN TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS ASHLEY PAGE PRESENTATION STRUCTURE 2 Introduction: System dynamics modeling Background: Hydrologic-social system research Summary: NM WRRI research team efforts
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The purpose of a system dynamics study is to understand the causes of a dynamic problem, and search for the policies that alleviate/eliminate them.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING
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(BARLAS, 2002)
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SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING, continued
Discovery
- Created by Jay Forester in the 1950s
Strengths
- Understanding nonlinear behavior
- Complex systems
(MIT Sloan School of Management, 2008)
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Background
- Malin Falkenmark in 1979
- Resurgence in recent years
- Potential for transboundary regions
- (Blair and Buytaert, 2016)
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HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL RESEARCH
(Stockholm International Water Institute, 2018)
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HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL MODELING OF TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS
6 A system dynamics approach allows for the analysis of:
- separate, yet intrinsically
connected decision-making analysis
- connected hydrologic system
- unintended consequences
(Torres, 2017)
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- Sam Fernald, Director
- Transboundary research region:
- Mesilla Basin
- Research interests:
- Surface water-groundwater interactions
- Watershed management effects on runoff
and water quality
- Water and society
- Transboundary water management
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: afernald@nmsu.edu 7
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- Saeed Langarudi, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist
- Transboundary research region:
- Mesilla Basin
- Research interests:
- Natural resources management
- Political economy
- Public policy
- Development economics
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: lang@nmsu.edu 8
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- Babak Bahaddin, Graduate Researcher
- Transboundary research region:
- Mesilla Basin
- Research interests:
- Archetypes and generic structures in
water resources management
- Socio-economic feedback loops in
water systems
- Dynamic mechanisms for closed
surface and groundwater systems
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: babak@nmsu.edu 9
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- Yining Bai, Graduate Research Assistant
- Transboundary research region:
- Mesilla Basin
- Research interests:
- Regional groundwater resilience
- Agricultural water usage
- Efficiency of natural resource storage
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: ynb@nmsu.edu
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- Connie Maxwell, Graduate Research
Assistant
- Transboundary research regions: Mesilla
Valley and Hatch Valley
- Research interests:
- Watershed restoration (multi-
functional benefits, including flood mitigation)
- Stormwater harvesting (mitigation of
flood energy and aquifer recharge)
- Community collaboration (working to
develop NM WRRI’s Water and Community Collaboration Lab)
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: alamosa@nmsu.edu
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- Ahmed Mashaly, Graduate Research
Assistant
- Transboundary research region:
- Southern New Mexico
- Research interests:
- Water-Energy Nexus
- Implications of water and energy
interactions
- Analysis of integrated water and
energy management
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: amashaly@nmsu.edu
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- Langarudi, Saeed, Ashley Page, Connie Maxwell, Yining Bai, Babak Bahaddin, and Alexander Fernald.
- 2019. “System-Wide Policy Solutions for Water Issues.” Submitted to the 37th International System
Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque, NM: System Dynamics Society.
- A. Page, S. P. Langarudi, S. Forster-Cox, and A. Fernald. A Dynamic HydroSocio-Technical Policy Analysis
- f Transboundary Desalination Development. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management,
7(1):87– 114, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.5890/JEAM.2019.3.007.
- Langarudi, Saeed P., Connie M. Maxwell, Yining Bai, Austin Hanson, and Alexander Fernald. 2019. “Does
Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?” Ecological Economics 159 (May): 35–45.
- Bai, Yining, Saeed P. Langarudi, and Alexander Fernald. 2017. “Long-Term Dynamics of Acequia
Population in New Mexico.” In 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, MA.
- Langarudi, Saeed P., and Carlos G. Silva. 2017. “Crop Price Volatility and Its Influence on Crop Patterns.”
In Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference of The Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, 4:1–4:10. CSS 2017. New York, NY.
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
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MESILLA BASIN HYDRO-SOCIAL TRANSBOUNDARY RESEARCH
Research: Evaluating Policy and Management Instabilities in the Transboundary Mesilla Basin Hydro-Social System to Rectify Public Health Concerns
(El Paso Times, 2017) Ashley Page, Sam Fernald, Saeed Langarudi, Sue Forster-Cox, Humaira Rahman
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- A Dynamic Hydro-Socio-
Technical Policy Analysis
- f Transboundary
Desalination Development Focus groups
- Key findings
- Cost
- Reform
- Quality
- Need for
further research
PREVIOUS RESEARCH
Created by Robert Sabie Jr., NM WRRI
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System Dynamics model
- Hydrologic-social analysis to investigate
the systematic instabilities that create a gap between the expressed health needs of the community and their rectification
- Focus on the feedbacks between the
hydrologic and social system
- Analysis of unintended consequences
RESEARCH COMPONENTS
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RESEARCH COMPONENTS
Hydrologic components Public health components Policy decision-making components
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Community
- Meeting to discuss results from
previous focus group
- Receive updated feedback regarding
their water-related and action concerns Public Health
- Investigate the impact of arsenic
contamination on the health of the community
RESEARCH COMPONENTS, continued
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