Meeting the Existential Challenges of Energy Security and Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Meeting the Existential Challenges of Energy Security and Climate Change

Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI December, 2016

CO2 Emission and Energy security after Fukushima accident

Coal

27% 28% 29% 32% 32% 34% 35% 36% 37% 34% 34% 35% 31% 26% 29% 31% 30% 26% 26% 29% 29% 11% 2% 1%

0%

10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 17% 18% 21% 22% 24% 25% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 28% 30% 31% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 26% 24% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 39% 42% 43% 46% 29% 26% 26% 21% 24% 19% 18% 14% 12% 12% 11% 8% 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 13% 12% 7% 7% 14% 18% 15% 11% 12% 13% 11% 13% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Renewables Oil LNG Coal Nuclear

2

Current Energy Mix in Japan (Power)

• The earthquake in 2011 transformed Japan’s power generation

composition, replacing nuclear with LNG, oil and coal.

2

Significantly lower than before the earthquake (19.9% in 2010). Second lowest in 34 OECD countries.

Stable supply: Self-sufficiency

Primary Energy Self-Sufficiency Rate of OEDC Countries (2014) 1st Norway 2nd Australia 3rd Canada 7th U.S.A. 14th U.K. 15th France 21th Germany 26th Spain 31th Korea 33th Japan 34th Luxembourg ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

１６７．９％ ９０．８％ ６０．３％ ５６．５％ ３９．１％ ３０．６％ １８．３％ ６．０％ ４．０％ ２９２．０％ Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro-Power Renewable Energy, etc. （geothermal, solar etc.）

【Source】 IEA “Energy Balance of OECD Countries 2016”

Nuclear Power

fy2010 fy2011 fy2012 fy2013 fy2014

Energy Self-Sufficiency Rate 19.9 (29th) 11.2 (33th) 6.3 (33th) 6.2 (33th) 6.0 (33th) Nuclear Power 15.0 5.8 0.9 0.5

• Hydro-Power

1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 Natural Gas 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Oil 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Renewable Energy 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 Effective Recovery Use

• f Wasted Energy

2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 Natural Renewable Energy 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 ６８２．９％

・ ・

※ IEA includes nuclear power in the first primary energy self-sufficiency rate.

3

Environment : Contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

*”From electricity” is CO2 emission from general electricity companies.

FY1990 FY2005 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Greenhouse gas emission (million t-CO2)

1,271 1,397 1,305 1,355 1,390 1,408 1,364

Energy-originated CO2 emission(million t-CO2)

1,067 1,219 1,139 1,188 1,221 1,235 1,189

From electricity* (million t-CO2)

275 373 374 439 +65 486 +112 484 +110 457 +83

From non-electricity (million t-CO2)

792 846 765 749

• 16 735
• 30

751

• 14 732 -33

(Compared with 2010)

Change of greenhouse gas emission in Japan

[Ref] Created based on General Energy Statistics, Environment Action Plan (Federation of Electric Power Companies), Calculation Result on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Japan (Ministry of the Environment).

4

Nuclear power is an important base-load power source as a low carbon and quasi- domestic energy source, contributing to stability of energy supply-demand structure,

• n the major premise of ensuring of its safety, because of the perspectives;

i. superiority in stability of energy supply and efficiency, ii. low and stable operational cost and iii. free from GHG emissions during operation.

＜Description in the Strategic Energy Plan of Japan＞

Nuclear Energy Policy in the Strategic Energy Plan 5

8.5% 28.6% 25.0% 29.3% 7.5% 1.1% 9.0% 31.0% 46.1% 10.4% 3.2% New e ener nergies es Oil il LNG NG Coa

• al

Nucl clea ear Hy Hydro 2010 010fy 2014 014fy

Basic principle for drawing the long-term energy supply and demand outlook Economic efficiency Energy security Self-sufficiency: About 25%, higher than before the earthquake (about 20%) Electricity cost: To lower from the current level

(9.7 trillion yen in FY2013 to 9.5 trillion yen in FY2030)

<Policy target for 3E+S> Environment Greenhouse gas emission reduction target: comparable to the targets of Europe and the US

Safety is the top priority.

Safety 6

1,065 billion kWh Energy conservation + renewable energy account for 40%.

Power demand and power source composition

17% lower than before the implementation of the energy conservation measures

Electric power 980.8 billion kWh

Power demand Power source composition

(Total generated energy)

2030 2030 2013 (Actual result)

Economic growth 1.7%/year

Electric power 966.6 billion kWh

Renewable energy 22 to 24% Nuclear power 20 to 22% LNG 27% Coal 26% Petroleum 3%

Hydroelectric 8.8 to 9.2% Solar power 7.0% Wind power 1.7% Biomass 3.7 to 4.6% Geothermal 1.0 to 1.1%

Base load ratio: 56%

* Values are approximate.

7

Environment: Contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

[Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by major countries] Compared with 1990 Compared with 2005 Compared with 2013 Japan

• 18.0% (2030)
• 25.4% (2030)
• 26.0% (2030)

U.S.

• 14 to 16% (2025)
• 26 to 28% (2025)
• 18 to 21% (2025)

EU

• 40% (2030)
• 35% (2030)
• 24% (2030)

China

• 60% to -65% of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 2030 compared to 2005

achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030

South Korea +81% (2030)

• 4% (2030)
• 22% (2030)

The U.S. submitted emission reduction target compared to 2005 while the EU submitted its target compared to 1990. South Korea submitted an emission reduction target of -37% in 2030 compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.

8

Current efforts of nuclear restarts and further market reform

PWR BWR

To Toma mari ri Oh Ohma ma Ona naga gawa wa Fu Fuku kush shim ima a Dai aini ni Ham amao aoka ka Tok

• kai

ai・To Toka kai i Da Dain ini Fu Fuku kush shim ima Da a Daii iich chi Kas ashi hiwa waza zaki ki Ka Kari riwa wa Se Send ndai ai Ika kata ta Ge Genk nkai ai Shi hima mane ne Shi hika ka Tsu suru ruga ga Ta Taka kaha hama ma Ohi hi Mi Miha hama ma Hig igas ashi hido dori ri(T (Tok

• kyo

yo) Hig igas ashi hido dori ri(T (Toh

• hok
• ku)

u)

ABWR

３１ ２６ ２３ ２２ ２６ ２０ １９ ２３ １０ ２９ ４０ ３７ ３６ ２４ ２３ ４２ ４１ ３１ ３１ ２７ ３５ ２２ １９ ２７ ２５ ６ ３８ ３４ ２１ ２３ １１ ３４ ３２ ２９ ３１ ３８ ３２ ２１ １４ １０ ２９ ３２ ３１ Reactor-type

Under NRA Review (Total 21 Units）

Age

Not Start Operation

→ (Unit 1) Restarted in Aug. 2015 → (Unit 2) Restarted in Oct. 2015 → (Unit 1) Stop by the periodic inspection in Oct.2016

Nuclear Power Plants in Japan (As of Nov 17, 2015)

Decided to be permanent shutdown (Total 15 Units）

Nuclear Power Plants in Japan

→ (Unit 3) Restarted in Aug. 2016

As of December 5th, 2016

→ (Unit 4) Restarted in Feb. 2016

Restarted (Total 5Units）

* Takahama 3,4 are placed on provisional injunction. → (Unit 3,4) be placed on provisional injunction → (Unit 1,2) Permitted in Apr. 2015 → (Unit 3) Restarted in Jan. 2016

10

Efforts towards Restarts of NPPs

Review of basic design and concept Review of detailed design

Inspection before start-up Inspection after start-up

Safety Reviews and Inspections process of NRA Sendai 1 2014/9/10 2015/3/18 2015/5/27 2015/8/11 2015/9/10 Sendai 2 2014/9/10 2015/5/22 2015/5/27 2015/10/15 2015/11/17 Takahama 3 * 2015/2/12 2015/8/4 2015/10/9 2016/1/29 2016/2/26 Takahama 4 * 2015/2/12 2015/10/9 2015/10/9 2016/2/26 Ikata 3 2015/7/15 2016/3/23 2016/4/19 2016/8/12 2016/9/7 Takahama 1 2016/4/20 2016/6/10 Takahama 2 2016/4/20 2016/6/10 Mihama 3 2016/10/5 2016/10/26

Assessment of

• peration management systems, etc.

(for approval of operational safety programs)

Reactor start-up

**Based on “the Basic Act on Disaster Control Measures” and “the Act on Special Measures concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness”

Local acceptance process (Sendai 1/2, Takahama 3/4, Ikata 3)

* Not a legal requirements

Disaster prevention and evacuation plan (Sendai, Takahama, Ikata, Tomari)

*Not a legal prerequisites for restart

11

* Takahama 3,4 are placed on provisional injunction in March 2016

Completion of assessment and inspections

11

• The 3rd Reform Bill for the electricity market passed the Diet on 17 June

2015.

• On 1 September 2015, The Electricity Market Surveillance Committee

was established.

• The Reform Bills include the provision for timely verifications of the

effect of the reforms.

Roadmap for Electricity Market Reform in Japan

1st reform Legal Unbundling

【1st Step】

• Apr. 2015

【2nd Step】

• Apr. 2016

【3rd Step】

• Apr. 2020

2nd reform 3rd reform Establishment of OCCTO* Full Liberalization of Retail Market

Transitional Period

• f Regulated Retail Tariff

Abolishment of Regulated Retail Tariffs Establishment of EMSC**

*The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators

Sep.

**The Electricity Market Surveillance Committee

12

METI launched a new WG in September to tackle several challenges entailed by deregulation of electricity market. (1）Financial and Accounting measures dealing with deregulation (ex. rule to cover decommissioning cost) (2) Efforts for voluntary improvement of safety and disaster prevention

A．Safety, Disaster Prevention, Decommissioning

１．Vitalization of sound competition ２． Securing public benefits under the deregulated market (1) Establishment of Non-fossil credit market (2) Introduction of Capacity Mechanism （kW） Considerations to achieve the balanced market reform

B．Environment, Introducing Renewable Energy, Stable Supply

(1) Measures to ensure access to a base-load power source for new entrant retailers as well as incumbents (Establishment of a Base Load Market) (2) Measures to improve the rules for the access to inter-regional power grids 13

• Act to promote use of non-fossil energy: electricity retailers are

expected to purchase 44% from non-fossil power sources in 2030.

Thermal Power Company With non-fossil value Without non- fossil value Wholesales Power Transaction Market

Image of non-fossil credit market

Non-fossil Credit Market

Electricity non-fossil credit

Non-fossil Fuel Power Company Electricity Retailer separated

Establishment of Non-fossil credit market

Electricity Retailer

(without non-fossil value) (with non-fossil value)

Explore the possibility to establish a “non-fossil credit market” 14

Among possible options to secure supply capacity, we are seeking to introduce;

• Capacity Market : as the most efficient model to secure capacity
• with a Centralized mechanism : to promote fair treatment against

dominant operators

To secure necessary supply capability

Capacity Markets Artificial Spikes Limited range of power source Unlimited range of power source Subsidy payment Strategic reserved capacity Secure a certain amount (Capacity Market) Set a certain price (Fixed Payment) Electricity retailers secure by their own (Decentralized market) Capacity auction (package procurement*) (Centralized market) Germany France UK,PJM,etc. ERCOT Spain

*some part can be negotiated bilaterally

Not to be able to secure predictability Not to be able to secure capacity

Introduction of Capacity Mechanism (kW) 15

US-Japan Nuclear Cooperation Contributing to CO2 Emission Reduction in the World

Example of Submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

China (1)

• 60% to -65% of carbon dioxide emissions per unit
• f GDP by 2030 compared to 2005

India (4)

• 33% to -35% of emissions intensity of GDP by

2030 compared to 2005 Indonesia (6)

• 29% in 2030 compared to BAU
• 41% in 2030 compared to BAU

Brazil (7)

• 37% in 2025 compared to 2005, subsequent

indicative contribution: -43% by 2030 compared to 2005 South Korea (12)

• 37% in 2030 compared to BAU

Mexico (13)

• 25% in 2030 compared to BAU

*( ):ranked by GHG emissions

17

Ea Easter ern n Eur Europe

50.5GW → 49.9GW (1.0times)／ 75.7GW (1.5times)

Africa ca

1.9GW → 2.9GW (1.5times)／ 8.9G (4.7times)

Middle e and nd Sout uth h Amer erica

5GW → 7.9GW (1.6times)／ 12.5GW (2.5times)

No North America

112GW → 93GW (0.8times)／ 127GW (1.1times)

East st Asi sia

94GW → 132GW(1.4times)／ 216GW (2.3times)

We West stern Europe

113GW → 93GW (0.8times)／ 126GW (1.1times)

Mi Middle East st・So South h Asia

6.9GW → 27.7GW (4.0times)／ 47.7GW (6.9times) <World Total Nuclear Generating Capacity>

2015 383GW 2030(Low estimate) 390GW 2030(High estimate) 598GW

(IAEA Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 （September,2016）)

Nuclear Market in the world

2015 2030(Low) 2030(High)

18

• The global nuclear plant industry has experienced several reorganizations.
• Russia and China are now rapidly expanding their presence in the global

market.

GE GE・HITAC TACHI TOSHIBA( BA(WH) MH MHI AR AREVA

ROS OSAT ATOM OM

DOOSAN AN

CNNC

(Chi hina na Nationa nal N Nuc uclear C r Corp rp.)

CGN

(Chi hina na Gene nera ral N Nuc uclear P r Power r Gro roup up)

PWR ＢＷＲ ＰＷＲ・ＢＷＲ

Nuclear Power Industry in the World

SPI PI

(Sta tate te Pow

• wer I

Investm tment Cor t Corp.)

ATMEA (joint corporation)

・established in Sep. 2007 ・jointly developing medium-powered PWR

Operating services are provided by KHNP(state-

• wned enterprise).

ROSATOM provides the whole services (not only reactor construction, but also mining of uranium, concentration, fuel fabrication) .

19

• The primary responsibility for safety should be on utilities and on

countries regulating that reactor.

• However, to ensure higher safety standards and to prevent serious

accident, responsible actions are needed by other stakeholders, including exporting countries of nuclear power plants, financing institutions, and manufacturer of nuclear plants. Result of the Ise-Shima G7 Summit

20

At the G7 Summit in May this year, G7 Leaders agreed to; “reaffirm our commitment to achieving and maintaining the highest levels of nuclear safety worldwide and call upon all states with nuclear power programs and every stakeholder engaged in international nuclear cooperation including transfers to promote robust safety standards and infrastructures.”

• A group of nuclear power plant vendors has articulated and

consolidated a set of principles that incorporate recommended best practices in the areas of safety, security, nonproliferation, etc.

• Smooth transition of secretariat function from Carnegie

endowment to the WNA is expected. Voluntary efforts by nuclear vendors

21

• There is a global trend to request the exporter not only construction of

NPP but also O&M of the plant (UAE, Jordan, etc). In these cases, Russia and South Korea have advantages over US or Japan.

(Examples)

• UAE (in Dec., 2009 competitive bidding: Japan, France, and South Korea)

Consortium of South Korea’s companies proposed commitment to provide a guarantee for 60 years O&M.

• Jordan (in Oct. , 2013 competitive bidding: Japan, France, Canada and Russia)

Russia proposed BOO(Build-Own-Operate)/BOT（Build-Operate-Transfer） bidding.

Importance of Operation and Maintenance

O&M Plant Construction Nuclear Fuel Supply US/Japan France South Korea Russia EDF / AREVA Rosatom KEPCO/KHNP（Korea Hydro ＆ Nuclear Power） Doosan Heavy Industries Oversea Supplier

* In Korea, nuclear reactor technologies are owned by DHI, but KHNP manages (designs, constructs and operates) NPPs entirely.

Power Company Manufacturer WH/GE

Subsidiary of Manufacturer /Oversea Supplier

22

Current Status of Fukushima

Conta- minated Water

10,000Bq/Ⅼ Extremely low and undetectable (Under 0.7Bq/L)

Less than 1/10,000

Deco- mission

Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation

(Aug. 2014)

IAEA review report (May 2015)

• Many important

tasks on contaminated water and decommission has been done. A large improvement was made. ・Ongoing activity toward decommissioning (Inspection for fuel debris retrieval)

International Research Institute for Nuclear Decommissioning

(Aug. 2013)

Mid-and-Long- term Roadmap

(Dec. 2011)

Contamina- ted water

Sea Land-side impermeable walls with frozen soil Sea-side impermeable wall Decontamination and pavement on site

Measures for contaminated water

Fukushima Daiichi NPP Reactor Building

※Radioactive substance concentration in surrounding sea

March 2011

(Immediately after the accident)

March 2016

(5 years after the accident)

Current Status in Fukushima

24

3 Basic Principles “Isolating” groundwater from contamination source (→Control amount of contaminated water by reducing groundwater inflow into building) “preventing leakage” of contaminated water (→Reduce outflow of radioactive substances into sea) “Removing” the contamination sources (→Remove radioactive substances from contaminated water in tanks)

Treatment of contaminated water inside tank is largely

• complete. (May 2015)

Closure completed (October 2015)

Groundwater flow

Treatment of contaminated water in trench is complete (December 2015)

Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) In operation (May 2014-) In operation (Sep 2015-)

海水中放射性物質濃度の推移

（海側遮水壁前（１～４号機取水口内南側））

海水中濃度 （ﾍﾞｸﾚﾙ/ﾘｯﾄﾙ） 100 200 300 9/4 9/24 10/14 11/3 11/23 12/13

鋼管矢板 一次打設完了 （9/19） ▲ｾｼｳﾑ-134 ■ｾｼｳﾑ-137 ◆全ﾍﾞｰﾀ

• ｽﾄﾛﾝﾁｳﾑ-90

△ｾｼｳﾑ-134(検出限界値) □ｾｼｳﾑ-137(検出限界値) ◇全ﾍﾞｰﾀ(検出限界値) 閉合完了 （10/26）

Preparation for

• peration

Purification treatment of contaminated water

Seawater piping trench

Seaside impermeable wall

Groundwater bypass Sub-drain

Landside impermeable wall

Water collection tank

Changes in concentrations of radioactive substances in seawater

(In front of seaside impermeable wall (South side of water intake on reactors 1 to 4))

Copper piping sheet pile Completion of primary placement

Closure completed Cesium-134 Cesium-137 All beta rays Strontium-90 Cesium-134 (measurable limit) Cesium-137(measurable limit) All beta rays(measurable limit)

Contaminated Water Management

25

Un Unit 1 Un Unit 2 Un Unit 3 Un Unit 4

<At the Time of the Accident> <Now> <At the Time of the Accident> <Now> <At the Time of the Accident> <Now> <At the Time of the Accident> <Now >

 Hydrog

• gen e

explos

• sion
• n

 Core melt lt

• No hydrog
• gen e

n explos

• sion
• n

 Core m melt lt  Hydrog

• gen e

explos

• sion
• n

 Core m melt lt  Hydrog

• gen e

explos

• sion
• n
• No

No co core m melt lt

・ The building cover was installed to prevent dispersion of radioactive materials. ・ Now the cover is being dismantled in preparation for the fuel removal operation.

• On June 2016, all planned decontamination works on the operating floor of the

reactor building was completed.

• Currently, installing shields on the operating floor is underway.
• On December 22, 2014, all (1533) fuel removal from Unit 4 SPF was

completed.

Current Status of each Unit

26

Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TEPCO Holdings) has

launched inviting proposals on expertise for Fukushima Daiichi decommissioning through an Open Innovation Platform “TEPCO CUUSOO”. (Website: https://tepco.cuusoo.com )

Japan-US Energy Cooperation on Nuclear

27

 Proposed ideas submitted through the process will be screened and evaluated for adoption, TEPCO FDEC will discuss in detail with individual proposers on

• implementation. For details, please see the website: https://tepco.cuusoo.com

(operated by CUUSOO SYSTEM co.,ltd.). An Open Innovation Platform for Fukushima Daiichi D&D 28