Measuring Up: How Do We Align Aid With Priorities? David Wheeler - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Apr 19, 2023 150 likes •451 views

Measuring Up: How Do We Align Aid With Priorities? David Wheeler Center for Global Development Allocation Calculus N W R Objective Function 0 i 1 i S = Scale of donor activity V i p R S 1 i

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Measuring Up: How Do We Align Aid With Priorities?

David Wheeler Center for Global Development

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



N i i

R W



i i p

V i i

S R



 





N i T i i

I B c





N i p V i

i i

S W



 

j j i i j i

p V p V S S 

* *

Objective Function Vulnerability Reduction Budget Constraint Welfare Function First-Order Conditions

S = Scale of donor activity V = Scale of vulnerability p = Project success prob. c = Unit cost of donor activity I = Total sectoral budget

Allocation Calculus

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Allocating Resources: Where? How Much?

Main Ideas

Some Representation for All Countries
Policies and Institutions (PI) Affect Project Outcomes
Likelihood of Project Success is Proportional to PI
Valuation of Impacts is the Same Everywhere

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Allocating Resources: Where? How Much? If we expect all projects to succeed:

Country Share of Total Investment = Country Share

f Total Problem

To account for different success rates:

Country Share of Total Investment

=

Country Share

f Total Problem,

Weighted by Success Rate

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Measuring Up: World Bank Investment Priorities 2000-2004

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Deaths From Waterborne Disease

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Effectiveness of Policy and Institutions: CPIA Ratings

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Probability of Project Success: OED Ratings

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Optimal Water and Sanitation Investment

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Actual Water Supply and Sanitation Loans*

*Investments included are the environmental components, including non-bank co-financing of currently active World Bank water supply and sanitation projects and urban environmental projects and a fraction of environmental institutional development projects.

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Overall Impressions

Problems Have Very Different Patterns
Big Gaps Between Actual & Optimal
Actual Loans Are Too Concentrated
Some Regional Imbalances Are Clear

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Measuring Up: GEF Resource Allocation 2004-2005

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Combined Biodiversity Threat Areas

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WWF Ecoregions

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Measuring Up: Allocating Adaptation Assistance 2011

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Sea-Level Rise, 2007 - 2100

50 100 150 200 250 300

1 2 3 4 5

Sea-Level Rise (Meters) LDC Population Displaced (Millions)

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Source: Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country William R. Cline CGD, 2007

Not Available Losses Gains 25+ % 15-25% 5-15% 0-5% 25+ % 15-25% 5-15% 0-5%

Agricultural Productivity Loss: 2008-2080 (IPCC Model A2)

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Projected Agricultural Productivity Through 2080 Developing-Country Regions and Sub-Regions*

15 30 45 60 20 40 60 80 100

Country Rank Productivity Loss (%)

* William R. Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture (2007)

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200 400 600 800 1000 20 40 60 80 100

Country Rank

Flood Risk Damage Index, 1960-2000 Distribution of Developing Countries*

* Wheeler, Center for Global Development (2007)

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Global Climate Risk, 1970-2008: Probability of Being Affected by an Extreme Weather Event* (Per 100,000)

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

* 11-Year Centered Moving Average

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% of Countries With Extreme Weather Impacts 1970-2008*

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Africa Asia Americas Europe

* 5-Year Moving Average

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