McKinsey & Company The future of mobility is NOW! Breakout - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

McKinsey & Company

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Breakout session

14th November 2019

The future of mobility is NOW!

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Agenda

Phasing for our session

 Opening comments and introductions  Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A  Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A  Panel discussion and Q&A —Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

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Seamless mobility Baseline Business as usual Unconstrained autonomy

Baseline city faces challenges today, with trip times averaging over 30 minutes, congestion rising, and air quality challenges Urbanisation and population growth increase passenger km demand, with limited regulatory/city government shaping of the future. Pace

• f electrification and

automation disappoints. Electrification and automation take off, but regulators and city governments fail to keep up. Robo-taxis take a greater share than AV shuttles, contributing to congestion. Cities encourage the use of shared AVs through regulation and incentives. Residents ‘mix and match’ rail transit and low-cost, point to point autonomous travel in AV shuttles easily

SOURCE: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

How could the future look in 2030?

10% 10% 15% Congestion, time per trip, delta from baseline

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Agenda

Phasing for our session

 Opening comments and introductions  Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A  Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A  Panel discussion and Q&A —Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

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Agenda

Phasing for our session

 Opening comments and introductions  Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A  Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A  Panel discussion and Q&A —Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS

Innovating for cities

Shashi Verma Director of Strategy and Chief Technology Officer Transport for London EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS

What are the growth markets for transport in London

Public transport has seen very substantial growth in London, removing the needs for car trips Cycling has seen the fastest growth, starting from a small base

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Index: 2001 = 100 Rail Underground Bus Car driver Population Cycle

Growth in selected modes of travel

Car 36% Walk 24% Bus (including tram) 14% Rail 11% Underground/DLR 11% Cycle 2% Taxi 1% Motorcycle 1%

How do people travel?

Most innovation talk is about areas that don’t matter much for how cities work. The only significant exception is autonomous vehicles, as and when they are made viable Share of all trips by mode of travel Total = 26.9 million trips per day

What drives investment?

Innovation needs to focus on not just what is cool but also what is useful. There is no money in being cool alone.

Cool Useful Rail Buses e-Scooter Drones Autonomous vehicles

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Agenda

Phasing for our session

 Opening comments and introductions  Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A  Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A  Panel discussion and Q&A —Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

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What role can we all play in creating seamless mobility?

Optimise supply Optimise demand

Shift to shared modes

▪ Dedicated lanes for shared vehicles ▪ Bikes and e-scooters for last-mile ▪ Active management

• f the for-hire fleet

Shifting demand off-peak

▪ Congestion pricing ▪ Commercial deliveries

Optimise rail

▪ Autonomous train operations ▪ Advanced signaling ▪ Predictive maintenance

Optimise road modes

▪ Intelligent traffic systems ▪ Smart parking ▪ AV-readiness

Improve sustainability

Electrify transit Low-emission zones

McKinsey & Company

13 McKinsey & Company SOURCE: McKinsey (FoM 3 Urban Mobility Model). Figures are rounded to nearest 5%.

5% 125 40% 25% 35% 35% 20% 115 Baseline 20% 40% 5% Business as usual urbanization 5% 15% 25% 10% Unconstrained autonomy 40% 5% 5% 10% 20% 40% Seamless mobility 1001 130

The modal share by scenario for a city like London

10% Urban leaders and private companies have an opportunity to actively shape the transit system over the next decade, reducing congestion by 10% from today even while accommodating 30% more traffic Train Bus2 Car Walk/bike Amount of mobility in example dense metropolitan area, Passenger km/yr1 10% 15% AV Shuttle Robotaxi Private Car Walk/bike Train

1 Mobility demand indexed as baseline = 100

Congestion, time per trip