Mars Settlement Design Eurekas Goal: Overcome the Steelman - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mars Settlement Design

Eureka’s Goal: Overcome the “Steelman” Arguments Answer all reasonable challenges to Space Settlement in the most cost effective and low-risk ways possible • Technology Issues • Investment Issues This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Energy Tec echnolo logy • Higher Density • Affordable, Consistent, Safe Revolu lutio ion Invention Com omponents • Capacity Envelope Expansion (Superpowers) • Factorial complexities (2!=2, 3!=6, 4!=24, 5!=120, etc.) Information • Science Drives Engineering. Vice Versa. • Communication Drives Factorial Expansion Affordability and Return on Investment • Applies to All of the Above Excitement • Boring Science and Technology Doesn’t Explode Interest • Superpowers, Comfort, Novelty

En Energy Den ensit ity, In Inventio ion and and In Informatio ion Energy System Utilization Inventions Information Human Power Hunting, Gathering, Migration, Villages, Basic Farming, Textiles Language Animal Power Farming, Roads, Cities, Travel, Writing, Trade Math/Alphabets Fire Metallurgy, Basic Chemistry Metallurgy Wind Power Ocean going vessels, Navigation Navigation Steam (Wood) Fast transport on rail/oceans. Paddle-wheels/wood boats. Telegraph Steam (Coal) Ironclad ships with screw propellers. Steel and other alloys. Fast News Petroleum (Kerosene) Indoor lighting, advanced industrial chemistry of petroleum. Radio Electricity Indoor lighting, Distributed mechanical/heat power. Telephone Petroleum (Gasoline) Internal combustion, Cars, Aircraft, early rockets. Television Chemical Rockets Moon landings, Solar system exploration, etc. Satellites Nuclear Power Submarines/Aircraft carriers, NERVA. Computers

Bos oston Box x an and In Init itia ial l Fai ailu lure to o Dem emocratiz ize High Stars Wildcats (Internet Satellites) (NewSpace 1.0) Low Growth Rate (AI, Robotics, etc.) CashCows Dogs (Old-Space: 1970-2010) (Failed Space Startups) (Nuclear Power) Low Market Share High

Bos oston Box x an and In Init itia ial l Fai ailu lure to o Dem emocratiz ize High Stars Wildcats (Internet Satellites) (NewSpace 1.0) Low Growth Rate (AI, Robotics, etc.) CashCows Dogs (Old-Space: 1970-2010) (Failed Space Startups) (Nuclear Power) Low Market Share High

In Innovatio ion: Ex Exponentia ial to o Asymptotic ic High Stars Wildcats Next Wave Breakout (Internet Satellites) (NewSpace 1.0) Low Growth Rate (AI, Robotics, etc.) Innovator’s Dilemma Path CashCows Dogs (Old-Space: 1970-2010) (Failed Space Startups) (Nuclear Power) Low Market Share High

Gran and Cha hall llenges of of Spa pace Settl tlement Launch/LEO Deep Space Moon/Mars Settlement Affordable Launch Solar Flares Moon Landing Air/Water Power and Large Vehicle Launch GCR: Cell Damage Mars EDL Propellant Orbital Refueling/ Medication/ Food Base Mass Fraction beyond Spacesuit Lifespan Expiration Construction Earth Orbit Life Support Closed Space Junk Dust Issues Food Growth Loop Microgravity Basic Power/ Surface Mining Medical Entropy (health issues) Propellant Production and Extraction Return Flight to Earth Hybrid Psychology (speed, mass, etc.) Manufacturing Mechanical Entropy Planetary Protection Reproduction

In Inventio ion/Investment Con onvergence En Engin ines MarsSpec • Robust systems • Democratization of Space Innovations to All Markets Certification Seals • Investment (Corporate Bond Equivalent) • Space-Flown Collectables • Sponsorship of Early Flight Articles Intellectual Property Smart Contracts • Fast, Fair Patent protection and Primary Research Funding • AI Accelerated Literature Searches • External interfaces via Foundation to isolate in-house innovation

Fas ast, t, Safe, Stan andard, Ada daptable Cascade Failure Risk Oversimplified Risk Low RISK High Simplified Modular Solutions Solutions Over-priced (Simple and Sometimes Modular) Low Complexity (Part Count) High

Cer ertif ific icatio ion Sea eals ls

Smar art t IP IP: : Mak akin ing In Innovatio ion Per ermanent High Stars Wildcats (Internet Satellites) (NewSpace 1.0) Low Growth Rate (AI, Robotics, etc.) CashCows Dogs (Old-Space: 1970-2010) (Failed Space Startups) (Nuclear Power) Low Market Share High

Dis isruptin ing Devel elopment Cos osts ts Eureka Foundation LaunchFest Equipment Sunset Vendors Eureka (Mars, et al) What is Needed Competitors for Selection Process, Equipment Sent to Further ROI of End When at Mars Certification Level Mars Work Mars and Used of Life Equipment Testing and Equipment CNC/3D Print Recycling Competitive CNC Parts Need List Manufacturing Judging Electronics Repurposing ID Plates Launch Return MarsSpec Electronics Equipment to Standards Manufacturing Mars Ownership/Sponsorship Supply Vendor and Collectable Unique ID ID Plate Unique Sponsorship Product Spaceflown Management ID Model Model Endorsement ID Plates

Economic ic In Independence Foundation Off-World Settlement Regulatory Authority Space Exports Imports Imported Items Space Imports Exports . In House Products In House IP/Data Licensing Licensing In House Labor Remote Labor Contract Terms Exchanges ($, etc.) Mars Currency ( μ ) Unleveraged Exchange GAAP Accounting Practices

Bus usin iness Mod odel – Th Three En Envir ironments Enthusiasm Chasm New Normal This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Pha hases of of Economic ic Devel elopment Exploration Phase • Mars Rocks to science community • Commissioned Studies Collector Phase • Rock Samples, Grown on Mars, Made on Mars collector's items • Intellectual Property Rights (Patents, etc.) Science City Phase • Direct Biological Exports, Pharma and agricultural work • Possible Lunar Base Outsourcing for Short Lifetime Biologicals

Th The Pur urpose

Th The Pur urpose Species C Species A Species B

Con onstructio ion Sha hack Pha hase 3.50 3.00 4.50 9.48

Lon ong Dom ome Con onstr tructio ion 85 21 40 13 25 20 4 30 4 10

Mod odula lar Pykrete Con onstructio ion

Cosm osmic ic Ra Ray Shi hield lding Halbach Array

Mai ain City ity Con onstr tructio ion

Over erall ll Layout R 5.00

Prototype/Lab Ring Cen entrif ifuge Rin Rings 260 m – 112 units 70 kph/45 mph Inner Ring 320 m, 260 units 110 kph/66 mph R 5.00 Outer Ring 440 m, 300 units 125 kph/80 mph

Cen entrif ifuge Rin Rings The outer ring has a track that would accommodate a spinning structure for artificial gravity. This is 57 degree slope for Mars gravity or 74 degrees for lunar gravity.

Foo ood Growth Prototype/Lab LED Greenhouse Permaculture Dome 100 m Rooftop Gardens in Ring Habitats R 5.00 LED Greenhouses

Fac actory ry/Util ilit ity R 5.00 Utility Domes 25 m Factory Space Logistics and Airlock

Aes esthetic ics Organic (Roger Dean) Angular (Syd Mead) Perpendicular (F. L. Wright) Derivative (Historic Earth) Aspirational (Sci Fi, etc.)

Cargo Return Mass Ratios by Category Growth an and Mark arket Shi hift 120% 100% 80% Date Year E2M Sorties M2E Sorties Population Certificate/Part Returns 2031 0 7 4 60 60% Exports-Practical 2033 2 16 14 100 Exports-Novelty 40% 2035 4 36 30 300 Collector Samples 2037 6 100 95 800 20% Science Samples 2039 8 115 110 1200 0% 2041 10 150 145 2500 Cargo % Decade 1 Cargo % Decade 2 Cargo % Decade 3 2043 12 175 170 3500 2046 15 205 200 4200 $1,600,000,000 2048 17 235 205 10,000 $1,400,000,000 2050 19 266 240 15,000 $1,200,000,000 2052 21 300 280 18,000 $1,000,000,000 2054 23 325 310 20,000 $800,000,000 2056 25 360 340 22,000 $600,000,000 2058 27 390 380 24,000 $400,000,000 2061 30 420 400 26,000 2063 32 450 440 28,000 $200,000,000 2065 34 500 490 30,000 $- Profit Decade 1 Profit Decade 2 Profit Decade 3 2067 36 600 580 36,000

Lau aunch/Paylo load Cos ost t Mod odel Total Unfunded Earth-to-Mars Payload/Delivery Costs By Launch Window $80,000,000,000 $70,000,000,000 $60,000,000,000 $50,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Flat Cost/Launch Eureka Cost/Launch

Economic ic Mod odel l Sum ummary ry Launch Costs, Return Profit, and Net Value By Window $1,000,000,000,000 $900,000,000,000 $800,000,000,000 $700,000,000,000 $600,000,000,000 $500,000,000,000 $400,000,000,000 $300,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FLAT PRICE MODEL Flat Cost/Launch FLAT PRICE MODEL Profit/Return FLAT PRICE MODEL Net Value EUREKA MODEL Eureka Cost/Launch EUREKA MODEL Profit/Return EUREKA MODEL Net Value