Market Monitoring Report Eric Hildebrandt, Ph.D. Manager, Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

California Independent System Operator Corporation Market Monitoring Report Eric Hildebrandt, Ph.D. Manager, Analysis and Mitigation Department of Market Monitoring ISO Board of Governors October 18, 2006

California Independent System Operator Corporation Market Monitoring Report DMM Report focused on three key issues: ! Compliance with Amendment 72 Load Forecast and Scheduling Requirements ! Generation Outage Reporting Requirements ! Preliminary analysis of Bid Insufficiency in Ancillary Service Markets during Summer 2006 2 BoG October 12, 2006 CAISO/DMM

California Independent System Operator Corporation Compliance with Amendment 72 Load Scheduling Requirements ! Two types of Compliance: 1. Submittal of Day Ahead Forecasts & Weekly Summary Reports ! Explicit penalties for non-compliance ($500) ! Enforced by DMM, subject to appeal to FERC 2. 95% Day Ahead Scheduling Requirement ! No explicit penalties in CAISO tariff ! Subject to enforcement by FERC ! DMM reports data relating to compliance to FERC ! Compliance with Informational Requirements ! Virtually 100% since May 2006 (compared to 75% before DMM program) ! Compliance with 95% Scheduling Requirement: ! Overall compliance very high & virtually 100% during peak hours. ! Improved compliance since implementation of DMM reporting program ! SCs’ load forecast data very accurate relative to actual metered load data ! Slight tendency to under-forecast in very high load hours 3 BoG October 12, 2006 CAISO/DMM

California Independent System Operator Corporation Comparison of SC Forecasts,Schedules and Metered Loads (Hour Ending 16) 55,000 Final Day Ahead Schedule SC Forecast (Aggregate) 50,000 Metered Load MW (Hour Ending 16) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 6/1 6/8 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 4 BoG October 12, 2006 CAISO/DMM

California Independent System Operator Corporation Generation Outage Reporting Requirements ! DMM supports proposed modifications to outage reporting requirements & SLIC reporting tools ! Compliance with 30 minute reporting requirement has improved slightly after July 11 filing to suspend penalties ! However, DMM cautions that: ! Historically, about 25% forced outages not reported within 30 minute deadline under CAISO tariff ! Penalties for non-compliance are substantial (reach $5,000 for each occurrence after 3rd violation in 12 months) ! DMM does not have discretion to reduce/eliminate penalty due to “mitigating circumstances” or other factors ! DMM can only submit filing with FERC recommending a reduction of penalty ! Absent improvement in compliance, cost impact and workload of penalties could be significant. 5 BoG October 12, 2006 CAISO/DMM