March 11,2016 Steven Giachetti: Director of Revenue Estimation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
District of Columbia Economy and Revenue Forecast "What's in Store for the FY 2016 DC Budget?" Presentation to the DC Fiscal Policy Institute March 11,2016 Steven Giachetti: Director of Revenue Estimation Office of the Chief
District of Columbia
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District of Columbia
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
District Per Capita Personal Income District Employment and Unemployment Personal Income Labor Markets & Employment
The District’s resident employment in December 2015 was 10,132 (2.9%) more than the same period last year, measured by the 3-month moving average
The unemployment rate was 6.6% in December 2015, down from the high of 10.4% in 2011
December 2015 wage and salary employment in the District was up by 9,667 (1.3%) from one year earlier, measured by the 3-month moving average
The District’s per capita personal income was 151.7%
In the quarter ended September 2015, the District‘s personal income grew by 4.8% and estimated wages
same period one year earlier
Most of the wage increase was due to growth in the private sector, but federal government wages also increased 4.7% in September 2015 over the prior year
$63,741 $67,359 $68,973 $68,606 $69,838
$60,000 $62,000 $64,000 $66,000 $68,000 $70,000 $72,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Per Capita Personal Income ($ in billions) 315.2 332.0 341.8 348.0 359.1
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 280 300 320 340 360 380
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(in thousands)
DC Resident Employment Unemployment Rate
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District of Columbia
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67 133 233 433 467 467 700 833 900 1,200 2,567 3,133 3,600
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Education Local government Personal and miscellaneous ser. Accomodations Retail trade Wholesale trade Information Amusement and recreation Construction Food service Employment services Other private Finance Federal government Legal services Other Professional and technical Organizations Other Business services Health
District of Columbia
Source:
$592,070 $654,874 $708,410 $748,023 $786,003
$550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 $800,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Number of Home Sales Average Home Sale Prices
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Home prices rose by more than 5 percent in 2015, the average home price in DC is now nearly $800,000
District of Columbia
Source:
The District’s population has been growing at one of the fastest rates in the Nation. There were more than 1,000 new residents per month in the District in 2015
620,472 635,342 649,540 659,836 672,228
570,000 600,000 630,000 660,000 690,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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District of Columbia
Economy: Generally stable national and local economic environment—annual real GDP growth has been about 2.5% for the past two years, and the Blue Chip and other forecasts expect this to continue for FY 2016 and FY 2017. Capital Markets: The early 2016 decline in the stock market, reversing gains of the previous year, underscores how volatile capital markets can be. This volatility can cause large fluctuations in capital gains and deed transactions revenues.
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$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital Gains Tax Revenue
District of Columbia
$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Real Property Transfer Tax Revenue Revenue from real property transfer taxes reached and an all time high in 2015, but this source of revenue is extremely volatile
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Actual Estimate Projected Local Source, General Fund Revenue Estimate ($M) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Net Local Fund Revenue (after enacted tax policy changes) 6,904,2 6,898.0 7,126.2 7,353.1 7,586.8 7,818.1 Revenue change from previous year Amount (6.2) 228.2 226.9 233.6 231.4 Percent
3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% *FY 15 Revenue included extraordinary one time revenue from record deed transfer taxes, capital gains, and a $73 million online travel settlement FY 16 also includes the revenue impact of previously triggered tax policy changes.
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Revenue Source FY 16 FY 17 Total Property (net) $2,406,419 $2,515,879 Growth 7.1% 4.5% Total Sales (net) $1,141,740 $1,191,753 Growth
4.4% Total Income $2,277,908 $2,358,136 Growth
3.5% Total Gross Receipts (net) $250,835 $247,800 Growth 0.2%
Total Other Taxes (net) $344,037 $350,884 Growth
2.0% TOTAL NON-TAX $422,082 $422,779 Growth 1.3% 0.2% Lottery $55,000 $55,500 Growth
0.9% TOTAL REVENUE NET OF DEDICATED TAXES $6,898,020 $7,142,732 Growth
3.5%