Mali
Impact of the gold price on exploration and production
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Mali Impact of the gold price on exploration and production JMP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Mali Impact of the gold price on exploration and production JMP Conference November 2019 1 Cautionary Statement on Forward Looking Information Certain information contained in this presentation, including any information as to Barricks
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Certain information contained in this presentation, including any information as to Barrick’s strategy, plans, or future financial or operating performance, constitutes “forward- looking statements”. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words “guidance”, “continues”, ”expected”, “potential”, “ongoing”, “prospective”, “opportunities”, “proposed”, “target”, “update”, “plan” and “create” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements including, without limitation, with respect to: forward-looking production guidance; estimates of future cost of sales per ounce for gold, total cash costs per ounce, and all-in-sustaining costs per ounce; cash flow forecasts; projected capital, operating and exploration expenditure; planned infrastructure upgrades; planned training and skills development programs; the potential for multiple zones of mineralization to be extended and combined at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex; mineral reserve and mineral resource replacement at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex; permitting applications at Massawa; closure plans for Morila; and future investments in Mali including in community projects and disease prevention programs. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions; including material estimates and assumptions related to the factors set forth below that, while considered reasonable by Barrick as at the date of this press release in light of management’s experience and perception of current conditions and expected developments, are inherently subject to significant business, economic, and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, and undue reliance should not be placed on such statements and information. Such factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the spot and forward price of gold, copper, or certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel, natural gas, and electricity); the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development; changes in mineral production performance, exploitation, and exploration successes; diminishing quantities or grades of reserves; increased costs, delays, suspensions, and technical challenges associated with the construction of capital projects; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities, including geotechnical challenges, and disruptions in the maintenance or provision of required infrastructure and information technology systems; changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, or regulations and/or changes in the administration of laws, policies, and practices, expropriation or nationalization of property and political or economic developments in Mali; lack of certainty with respect to foreign legal systems, corruption, and other factors that are inconsistent with the rule of law; risk of loss due to acts of war, terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; timing of receipt of, or failure to comply with, necessary permits and approvals; failure to comply with environmental and health and safety laws and regulations; litigation and legal and administrative proceedings; risks associated with illegal and artisanal mining; the risks associated with infectious diseases presenting as major health issues; damage to Barrick’s reputation due to the actual or perceived
true or not; the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development; the impact of global liquidity and credit availability on the timing of cash flows and the values of assets and liabilities based on projected future cash flows; the impact of inflation; fluctuations in the currency markets; contests over title to properties, particularly title to undeveloped properties, or over access to water, power, and other required infrastructure; employee relations including loss of key employees; increased costs and physical risks, including extreme weather events and resource shortages, related to climate change; and availability and increased costs associated with mining inputs and labor. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of mineral exploration, development, and mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding, and gold bullion, copper cathode, or gold or copper concentrate losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance,
Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward- looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual Information Form on file with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities for a more detailed discussion of some of the factors underlying forward-looking statements, and the risks that may affect Barrick’s ability to achieve the expectations set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Barrick disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
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Gold production Projects Barrick Tanzania Copper production
Morila (40%)
2014 2013
Production exceeds 1Moz LTIFR down 18% Record production Morila mine life extended
2012
Loulo Complex record production
2015 2016
+1.25Moz group production
2017
Gounkoto super pit starts
2019
+1.2Moz group production Randgold – Barrick merger
1996
RRL acquired BHP Mali assets including Syama Yalea discovery Morila discovery IPO raises $83m
2004
Loulo construction starts
2005
Loulo pours first gold Loulo UG feasibility approved
2005
Loulo UG mine starts
2006
Tongon stake at 89% Market Cap at $3b Join FTSE 100
2008
Record Production Market cap at $11b Join NASDAQ 100
2011
Tongon first gold Gara UG starts Gounkoto mine build starts
2010 1997 2000
Morila pours first gold
2003
Syama sold to Resolute Massawa discovery
2007
Gounkoto discovery Kibali acquired stake at 45%
2009
Gounkoto first gold
2011
Randgold incorporated
1995 2001
Syama
maintenance
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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Production 2018 Production 2019
Somifi - SA Somika - SA Yatela - SA Faboula Gold - SA Nampala - SA Metedia - SARL Morila - SA1 Komana - SA Semico - SA Semos - SA Somisy - SA Fekola - SA Somilo-Gounkoto - SA1
Ounces 000
Finkolo Endeavour AngloGold Ashanti Wassalou Robex Metedia Barrick Hummingbird BCM AngloGold Ashanti Resolute B2Gold Barrick
Source: Public information, DNGM Mali
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 Million ounces
US$/oz
1 2 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Oz actual Oz forecast Production Oz 000
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Trump and nationalism – illegal immigration BREXIT and European populism – illegal immigration Canada and Australia Religious extremism Korean crisis South America – warlords and crime mixed with populism China – a new world player The Russian Bear Middle East conflict and emerging new Saudi Arabia The Arab Spring countries’ dilemma Global competition and Africa having to look after itself
Source: Scotia, Global Banking and Markets
The largest portion of available exploration funds are now being spent in South America (30%) and North America (28%) with only 14% allocated to Africa (6% to West Africa and 2% in the DRC)
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Data as of Nov 15, 2017
88 other countries and four regional allocations account for 10.1% 1535 companies’ budgets totalling US$7.05 billion
African exploration budgets followed the global trend Greenfields exploration is now lower than Late Stage and Minesite exploration as mining companies attempt to preserve their cash resources 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Grass Roots Late Stage Minesite
US$ million
Grass Roots Minesite Late Stage
Despite significant exploration expenditure during the period from 2010 to 2012, real discoveries have declined since 2009, severely impacting future gold production Major gold discoveries Moz US$ million US$/oz
Source: SNL Metals & Mining
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gold discoveries Moz Gold Production Moz Gold price (US$/oz) Exploration budgets (US$M)
0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Reserve Grade Head Grade
Gold grade g/t
Source: Scotia Bank
700 830 849 898 959 967 860 818 766 744 713 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Moz Au
Agnico Eagle, AngloGold Ashanti, Barrick, China National, Freeport McMoRan, Gold Fields, Goldcorp, Harmony, Kinross, Navoi Mining & Metallurgy Combinant, Newcrest, Newmont, Nord Gold, PJSC Polyus, Polymetal International, Randgold Resources, Shandong Gold
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Industry facing production precipice Very few companies able to deliver value growth in this environment
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Production Committed Probable Possible Concept Others
Source: AME Research. See Endnote 2 for further information on each category.
Moz
Governance International Support Private Sector Natural Resources Regional Integration
Traditional industries
Services Manufactur- ing Tourism Benefication Infrastructure
Low skilled Low growth Low value High skilled Globally competitive Growth potential
Economic Diversification Mining sector sphere of influence
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Health 10%
Education 18% Potable Water 7% Agriculture 15% Economic Projects 50%
Contribution to Malian Economy
Barrick/Randgold operations have contributed approximately US$ 7.0 billion to the Malian economy in the form of taxes, royalties, salaries and payments to local suppliers in the 23 last years
GOUNKOTO
US$ 1.1 Bn
LOULO
US$ 3.6 Bn
MORILA
US$ 2.3 Bn
% Contribution to Malian GDP
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Loulo Gounkoto Morila
Barrick/Randgold operated mines have paid approximately US$ 2.7 billion in the form of Dividends, Taxes and Royalties to the State
DIVIDENDS, TAXES AND ROYALTIES TO THE STATE US$ 2.7 billion DIVIDENDS TO BARRICK US$ 1.0 billion
1. At 100%. 2. AME Research category definitions: Production – A site which is in commercial operation. Committed – AME believes these projects will come online by their planned start date with the highest degree of probability. In AME's assessment, this category contains projects that are already completed and awaiting commissioning, or those projects that are in a sufficiently advanced stage of construction, such that it considers it uneconomic to discontinue construction. AME has also included some projects that fall outside of these two categories, as these projects are owned by major mining companies or have strong financial backing. Probable – AME believes these projects will come online with the next highest degree of probability. AME considers that these projects are very likely to begin production, but are differentiated by those in the “Committed” category because the degree of certainty is reduced by key factors, which include, but are not limited to: current stage of construction/development, location of project, owner/financiers and product mix. Possible – AME regards these projects to have sufficiently strong fundamentals to consider that they will possibly begin production by the end of AME's s long-term forecast period, but there remains some uncertainty as to aspects of the project. Concept – AME considers it is unable to provide any concrete assessment of the timing of these project start dates or capacity with any great detail without further information. The majority of these projects are unlikely to proceed to development. Other – AME has not assigned a likelihood to certain assets in the “Care & Maintenance” and “On Hold” status categories because they are unable to make a definitive judgment on their likelihood of coming online. We’re incorporated both into a separate “Other” category so as to be able to account for all assets tracked by AME, but note that estimated production of assets in these categories is not material to the full forecast.
Technical Information
The scientific and technical information contained in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by: Rodney Quick, Mineral Resource Management and Evaluation Executive of Barrick and Simon Bottoms, SVP, Mineral Resources Manager: Africa and Middle East of Barrick, each a “Qualified Person” as defined in National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects.