Main Points Traum atic Effect of School Shootings 1. School - - PDF document

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Student Threat Assessment AERA 2018 Student Threat Assessm ent as a Dewey G. Cornell, Ph. D. Professor of Education in the Curry Violence Prevention Strategy School of Education at the University of Virginia. Dew ey Cornell, Ph.D.


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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 1 Student Threat Assessment Student Threat Assessm ent as a Violence Prevention Strategy

Dew ey Cornell, Ph.D. Curry School of Education University of Virginia

434-924-8929 Email: youthvio@virginia.edu Website: youthviolence.edschool.virginia.edu

Dewey G. Cornell, Ph. D.

  • Professor of Education in the Curry

School of Education at the University of Virginia.

  • Director of the UVA Youth Violence

Project

  • Forensic clinical psychologist, worked

with violent offenders

  • Studied youth violence for 30+ years, 200+ publications in

psychology and education

  • Developed threat assessment guidelines for schools in 2001.

Main Points

1. School violence is a small part of a larger problem of gun violence; schools are safer than almost any other place. 2. Concern about school shootings has generated some counter-productive responses: excessive security and zero tolerance discipline. 3. Threat assessment is a useful strategy to identify students in need of assistance. Traum atic Effect of School Shootings

School shootings are so traum atic that they convince everyone that w e extensive schools are unsafe and require extensive security m easures.

Shooting at Stonem an Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida

We need both recovery from trauma and a factual analysis of the best way to prevent more shootings.

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 2 Student Threat Assessment Annual Gun Toll

  • 3 3 ,0 0 0 deaths
  • 6 7 ,0 0 0 injuries

1 0 0 ,0 0 0 total

2 7 5

Shootings per day

APA report is available at http:/ / w w w .apa.org/ pubs/ info/ reports/ gun-violence- prevention.aspx Shooting deaths from : National Vital Statistics http:/ / w ebappa.cdc.gov/ sasw eb/ ncipc/ dataRestriction_inj.htm l Shooting injuries from : http:/ / w ebappa.cdc.gov/ sasw eb/ ncipc/ nfirates2 00 1.htm l

5 yrs x 100,000 =

5 0 0 ,0 0 0

  • utside of schools

For every shooting in a school, there are 1 ,6 0 0 + outside of schools I f schools w ere im pregnable, it w ould only stop .0 6 % of shootings Less than 1 tenth of 1 percent

The real problem is gun violence, not school violence.

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 3 Student Threat Assessment

March for Our Lives

Youth from across the country spoke out about the gun violence they experienced both in and out of school.

2150 1965 1651 1478 1338 1354 1361 1379 1365 1479 1661 1641 1505 1426 1303 1143 1127 1014 1002 1110 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Homicides of School‐Aged Youth

Sources: Kaplan, Jacob. Uniform Crime Reporting Program Data: Supplementary Homicide Reports, 1976‐2015. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter‐university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2017‐06‐01. https://doi.org/10.3886/E100699V1. Data on 22 homicides per year in schools based on years 1994‐95 to 2013‐14 in Zhang, A., Wang, K., Zhang, J., & Oudekerk, B. A. (2017). Indicators of School Crime and Safety:

  • 2016. NCES 2017‐064/NCJ 250650. National Center for Education Statistics. https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017064.pdf

Average of 22 homicides per year in schools Average of 1,480 homicides outside of schools Homicides outside of school are 67x more likely

9847 4455 1209 629 533 492 288 211 49

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Residence Street Parking lot/garage Outdoors Restaurant/bar Store/gas station Public building/business Hotel/motel School

2005‐2010 Homicides in 37 States

Restaurants are 10x more dangerous than schools. Homes are 200x more dangerous than schools.

Source: FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) database. Selected locations. School includes colleges. See Nekvasil & Cornell (2015) Psychology of Violence, 5, 236-245.

“Any given school can expect to experience a student hom icide about once every 6 ,0 0 0 years.”

2010 Educational Researcher, Vol. 39, pp. 27-37

1 2 5 ,0 0 0 schools ÷ 2 1 deaths/ year

W hy the Fear of School Violence Matters

1 . School Suspensions 2 . School Fortification

The Expansion of Zero Tolerance

From No Guns to

  • No Toy Guns
  • No Nail clippers
  • No Plastic utensils
  • No Finger-pointing
  • No Jokes
  • No Drawings
  • No Rubber band

shooting No Accidental violations

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 4 Student Threat Assessment

Zero Tolerance Suspensions After the New tow n Shootings

6 year old pointed finger and said “pow !”

http:/ / w w w .sott.net/ article/ 2 5 55 52 -6 -year-old-suspended- for-pretend-gunshot

Zero Tolerance Suspensions

9 year old w ith toy gun 1 2 year old doodler

http:/ / w w w .nydailynew s.com / new - york/ education/ desk-doodling-toy-gun-incidents-clear-educators- lack-com m on-sense- article- 1 .1 9 4 1 0 5 http:/ / w w w .nydailynew s.com / new s/ national/ california-teen-suspended-new tow n- poem -article- 1 .1 2 3 0 6 5 5

Poem about Sandy Hook, “I understand the killings…”

3 .3 Million Suspensions Per Year Fuel the School to Prison Pipeline

W hy the Fear of School Violence Matters

http: / / www.bloomberg.com/ news/ articles/ 2013-11-14/ schools-boosting-security-spending-after-newtown-massacre

Building Security Measures

Bullet-Proof Building Entrances

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 5 Student Threat Assessment Building Security Measures

Metal detectors and x-ray screening

Building Security Measures

Security and Police Officers

(DeAngelis, Brent, & I anni, 2011)

W e should prevent shootings rather than sim ply prepare for them .

Prevention m eans “to keep som ething from happening” Crisis response is not prevention.

A crisis occurs w hen prevention has failed.

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 6 Student Threat Assessment

Photo of Virginia Tech shooter pointing gun

Prevention m ust start before the gunm an is at your door.

The FBI , Secret Service, and Dept of Education recom m ended a threat assessm ent approach nearly 2 0 years ago.

W hat is Threat Assessm ent?

Threat assessm ent is a problem - solving approach to violence prevention that involves assessm ent and intervention w ith students w ho have threatened violence in som e w ay.

Threat Assessm ent is a violence prevention strategy.

  • 1. Family members, friends, or others seek

help when concerned about someone in distress or who is threatening violence.

  • 2. The threat assessment team evaluates the

seriousness of the threat.

  • 3. The team initiates assistance to address the

underlying problem, conflict or need. In the most serious cases, protective action is taken.

Threat Assessm ent

  • 1. Identification of threats made by students.
  • 2. Evaluation of seriousness of threat and

danger it poses to others, recognizing that all threats are not the same (e.g., toy guns

are not dangerous).

  • 3. Intervention to reduce risk of violence.
  • 4. Follow-up to assess intervention results.
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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 7 Student Threat Assessment

  • Developed and field-

tested in Virginia in 2 0 0 1

  • Now used in thousands
  • f schools nationw ide
  • Controlled studies

earned recognition as an evidence-based practice

  • Legally defensible

standard of practice

Accurate Threat Assessm ent Avoids 2 Errors … 1 . Over-reaction Accurate Threat Assessm ent Avoids 2 Errors … 2 . Under-Reaction

Continuum of Threats

  • Warning of impending violence
  • Attempts to intimidate or frighten
  • Thrill of causing a disruption
  • Attention-seeking, boasting
  • Fleeting expressions of anger
  • Jokes
  • Figures of speech

Transient Substantive Key Point

Threat assessm ent is not designed to determ ine w hether a student has MADE a threat, but w hether a student POSES a threat.

Key Point

I n a threat assessm ent, w e try to determ ine w hy a student m ade a threat, and therefore how w e can

prevent the threat from being carried

  • ut.
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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 8 Student Threat Assessment

Key Point

Students DO NOT have to be suspended for m aking a threatening statem ent. Many threats can be resolved w ithout suspension.

Research on Threat Assessm ent

1. Cornell, D., Sheras, P. Kaplan, S., McConville, D., Douglass, J., Elkon, A., McKnight, L., Branson, C., & Cole, J. (2004). Guidelines for student threat assessment: Field-test findings. School Psychology Review, 33, 527-546. 2. Kaplan, S., & Cornell, D. (2005). Threats of violence by students in special education. Behavioral Disorders, 31, 107-119. 3. Strong, K., & Cornell, D. (2008). Student threat assessment in Memphis City Schools: A descriptive report. Behavioral Disorders, 34, 42-54. 4. Allen, K., Cornell, D., Lorek, E., & Sheras, P. (2008). Response of school personnel to student threat assessment training. School Effectiveness and School Improvement, 19, 319-332. 5. Cornell, D., Sheras, P., Gregory, A., & Fan, X. (2009). A retrospective study of school safety conditions in high schools using the Virginia Threat Assessment Guidelines versus alternative approaches. School Psychology Quarterly, 24, 119-129. 6. Cornell, D., Gregory, A., & Fan, X. (2011). Reductions in long-term suspensions following adoption of the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines. Bulletin of the National Association of Secondary School Principals, 95, 175-194. 7. Cornell, D., Allen, K., & Fan, X. (2012). A randomized controlled study of the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines in grades K-12. School Psychology Review, 41, 100-115. 8. Cornell, D. & Lovegrove, P. (2015). Student threat assessment as a method for reducing student suspensions. In D. Losen (Ed.). Closing the School Discipline Gap: Research for Policymakers. New York, NY: Teachers College Press. 9. Nekvasil, E., Cornell, D. (2015). Student threat assessment associated with positive school climate in middle schools. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 2, 98-113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tam0000038 10. Burnette, A. G., Datta, P. & Cornell, D. G. (2017). The distinction between transient and substantive student threats. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management. http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2017-56103-001 11. Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Burnette, A.G., Jia, Y., Huang, F., Konold, T., Datta, P., Malone, M., Meyer, P. (2017). Student threat assessment as a standard school safety practice: Results from a statewide implementation study. School Psychology Quarterly. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/spq0000220 12. Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Huang, F., Shukla, K., & Konold, T. (in press). Racial/ethnic parity in disciplinary consequences using student threat assessment. School Psychology Review.

Research on Threat Assessm ent

1.Field-tests

What happens when you try the model?

2.Controlled studies

Cross-sectional, retrospective study: How do schools using the model compare to other schools? Pre-post study: How do schools change after adopting the model? Randomized controlled trial: What happens to students in schools randomly chosen to use the model?

3.Large-scale implementation

What happens when the whole state adopts the model?

Research on Threat Assessm ent

  • 1. 99% of threats not carried out.
  • 2. Only 1% expelled, 1% arrested.
  • 3. Suspension rates decreased.
  • 4. Racial disparities reduced or absent.
  • 5. Counseling used more often.
  • 6. More positive school climate.

Virginia m andates K-1 2 threat assessm ent in 2 0 1 3

Student Threat Assessm ent as a Safe and Supportive Prevention Strategy 4-year project (2015-2018)

This project supported by Grant # NIJ 2014-CK-BX-0004 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication/ program/ exhibition are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Justice.

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 9 Student Threat Assessment

Selected sam ple of 1 ,8 6 5 threat assessm ent cases reported by 7 8 5 Virginia public schools during the 2 0 1 4 -1 5 school year Percentages for 1 ,8 6 5 threat cases from 7 8 5 schools. One case can involve m ore than one type of threat.

33 23 21 18 13 5 1 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Unspecified Kill Use weapon Hit, beat Stab, cut Bomb Arson Sexual

Types of Threats (%)

n= 1,865

Percentages for 1 ,8 7 6 5 threat cases from 7 8 5 schools. One case can involve m ore than one victim .

68 15 13 7 4

20 40 60

Student Teacher Whole school/group Staff/administrator Other

Intended Victim (%)

n = 1,865 1309, 70% 552, 30%

Team Assessment of Threat as Serious or Not Serious

Not Serious Serious

Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Burnette, A.G., Jia, Y., Huang, F., Konold, T., Datta, P., Malone, M., Meyer, P. (2017). Student threat assessment as a standard school safety practice: Results from a statewide implementation study. School Psychology Quarterly. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/spq0000220

Characteristics of Threats Judged to be Serious

Characteristic

Odds Ratio as Serious

W eapon in possession 4 .4 1 Adm inistrator targeted 3 .5 5 Elem entary grade 0 .5 7 Threat of battery 1 .6 1 Threat of hom icide 1 .4 0 Special Education status 1 .2 7

Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Burnette, A.G., Jia, Y., Huang, F., Konold, T., Datta, P., Malone, M., Meyer, P. (2017). Student threat assessment as a standard school safety practice: Results from a statewide implementation study. School Psychology Quarterly. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/spq0000220

Non-Significant Characteristics

Characteristic

Odds Ratio as Serious

Fem ale 0 .9 2 Race: Black 0 .9 7 Ethnicity: Hispanic 0 .8 3 Threat com m unicated directly 1 .2 8 Faculty targeted 0 .8 4

Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Burnette, A.G., Jia, Y., Huang, F., Konold, T., Datta, P., Malone, M., Meyer, P. (2017). Student threat assessment as a standard school safety practice: Results from a statewide implementation study. School Psychology Quarterly. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/spq0000220

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 10 Student Threat Assessment

97.7 2.6 0.7

20 40 60 80 100

Threat Not Attempted Attempted and Averted Threat Carried Out

Threat Outcomes (%)

n = 1,865 cases

Characteristics of Threats that W ere Attem pted

Characteristic

Odds Ratio Attem pted

Judged to be serious 1 2 .4 8 Threat of battery 3 .3 3 Threat of hom icide 0 .2 2 Threat com m unicated indirectly 0 .0 6

Cornell, D., Maeng, J., Burnette, A.G., Jia, Y., Huang, F., Konold, T., Datta, P., Malone, M., Meyer, P. (2017). Student threat assessment as a standard school safety practice: Results from a statewide implementation study. School Psychology Quarterly. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/spq0000220

Percentages for 1 ,8 6 5 threat cases from 7 8 5 schools. One case can involve m ore than one outcom e.

53 44 16 5 3 3 1 1

10 20 30 40 50

Reprimand Suspension out of school Suspension in school Expulsion reduced to… Detention after school Placed in juvenile detention Arrested Expelled

Disciplinary Outcome (%)

n= 1,865

84 8 5 1 2

20 40 60 80

No Change Transferred to alternative school Homebound instruction Transferred to regular school Other

School Placement Outcome (%)

n = 1,865 cases

No statistically significant differences for W hite vs Black or W hite vs Hispanic students

45 15 0.5 0.7 0.8 46 18 1.4 1.2 0.7 43 16 1.5 0.8

10 20 30 40 50

Suspension Change in Placement Expulsion Arrest Incarceration Percent of Students

Disciplinary Outcomes

n = 785 schools

White Black Hispanic

Concluding Points

1. School violence is a small part of a larger problem of gun violence 2. Schools are much safer than the public

  • thinks. We need to balance security with

prevention efforts. 3. Threat assessment can help schools respond to student threats.

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AERA 2018 Dewey Cornell, Ph.D. 11 Student Threat Assessment

2 0 1 7 -1 8 Research Team

Rear: Patrick Meyer, Jennifer Maeng, Yuane Jia, Tim Konold Middle: Francis Huang, Anna Grace Burnette, Dewey Cornell, Brittany Crowley Front: Whitney Hyatt, Shelby Stohlman, Katrina Debnam, Marisa Malone

http:/ / youthviolence.edschool.virginia.edu