Low fertility in Latin America: an analysis using cohort size - PDF document

Low fertility in Latin America: an analysis using cohort size variation and age- specific growth rates Vanessa di Lego Ana Paula Verona Cedeplar/UFMG/Brazil Abstract Some important studies have impinged upon the size of generations as playing a major role on shaping the future population age structure in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries (Wong 2009). To discuss this specific matter, the former work relied mainly upon UN projections variants to evaluate the probabilistic impact of future generation of newborns on the age structure and its age-dependency ratios. However, it could not take advantage of the yet to be launched census and surveys results for these set of countries after year 2010 and the 2015 UN Revision, when important changes took place. In this present work we indicate when exactly in time from 1950 to 2100 the cohort of females entering reproductive ages is smaller than the previous generation for all LAC countries, thus presenting the moment when the contribution of cohort size relatively starts to potentially affect future fertility trends and population size. We also compute age-specific growth rates from 1950-2100 for all females in reproductive ages to track how fast are these cohorts changing in size, and discuss how aspects of the fertility transition as applied to low European fertility contexts are not suitable for low LAC fertility contexts. INTRODUCTION Fertility has declined steeply and to surprisingly low levels in the developing world, challenging demographers’ former prospects and ma ny UN projections (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 1999; United Nations Revision 2009). No variant hypothesis considered that

fertility would continue on such a dramatic downward trend, often due to these countries’ poor socioeconomic development and other common v ulnerable indicators related to precluding fertility transition, to which Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is no exception (Wong et al 2000). The focus on the developing world as regards fertility has usually been on how to deal with its high levels and its negative consequences. The typical framework used to explain fertility transition and low fertility levels in developed countries was not only unable to foresee such a fast-paced and dramatic decline in the developing world, but is also feeble to explain how fertility determinants operate at such challenging contexts as Latin America and the Caribbean. This scenario urges demographers and specialists to revisit the framework that has been used to explain the determinants and pathways to lower fertility, since much has been done to explain those levels at developed countries, but not at the developing ones. Research show that for 13 countries that represent 79.2% of Latin American population fertility has continued to decline substantially, and not only in those countries where levels were above 4 or 5 children per women, but also for those with TFRs below 3 (Cavenaghi and Alves 2009). As with Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain, and Portgual, fertility in Latin American countries did not stall at around two children per women and clearly indicate a trend moving towards extremely low levels. Despite this common fact with the former that the fertility transition did not stall at around the 2.1 replacement level, LAC countries, some with remarkably different socioeconomic backgrounds, are reaching below or replacement fertility levels at a much faster pace than developed countries, inevitably leading to a faster aging process, while still having vulnerable labor markets, scanty or inexistent welfare systems and high inequality. In this work we analyze the possible relationship between cohort size variation at reproductive ages and fertility for a selected LAC countries, and discuss some of the particular aspects of below replacement fertility levels at those countries. BACKGROUND Total Fertility Rates and the Dynamics of Decline Figure 1 shows total fertility rate estimates from 1950 to 2015, for (panel a) selected regions in the world and (panel b) some selected European and Latin American

countries. As it is well known, the fertility rates in Europe are well below replacement level since 1975, as indicated by the solid horizontal red line in the Figures. On the contrary, by 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole was reaching replacement level, while the World is still behind. When looking more closely into some countries of both the LA and Caribbean region and Europe, however, we see that many countries have not only already reached below replacement levels in the former, but also a couple have done so reaching in 1980 the same level of France for the same year, as is the case of Barbados and Cuba. Nonetheless, what is most striking when comparing the profiles of fertility decline in both sets of countries is the rapid pace of decline of LA countries and in most cases the high level from which those countries start their fertility transition. Figure 1. Total fertility rate (TFR), selected Latin American and Caribbean Countries, and selected regions in the world, 1950-2015 a) Selected Regions in the World b) Selected Countries 6 5 6 TFT(UN estimates) TFT(UN estimates) 4 4 3 2 2 1950-19551955-1960 1960-19651965-1970 1970-19751975-1980 1980-19851985-19901990-1995 1995-20002000-2005 2005-20102010-2015 1950-1955 1955-19601960-1965 1965-19701970-1975 1975-19801980-19851985-1990 1990-19951995-2000 2000-20052005-2010 2010-2015 Year Year Region EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WORLD Region Aruba Barbados Brazil Cuba Dominican Republic France Germany Sw ed Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition/ Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre, ECLAC Population Division - Population database, the 2015 revision Figure 2 below shows the profile of some LA and Caribbean countries more closely, considering also the projections until year 2100. Again, the speed of decline is striking.

As discussed in more detail ahead, particularly striking is the case of Brazil, where the TFR dropped from a 6.15 children per women in 1950 to a level of 1.75 children in 2015. Colombia also reaches below replacement level in 2005, while Chile reached that level between years 1995-2000, Puerto Rico between 1990-1995, and Cuba between 1975-1980. Figure 2. Total fertility rate (TFR), selected Latin American and Caribbean Countries, 1950-2100 6 TFT(UN estimates 4 2 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 Year Country Brazil Chile Colombia Cuba Dominican Republic Latin America and the Caribbean Mexico Paraguay Peru Puerto Rico Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition/ Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre, ECLAC Population Division - Population database, the 2015 revision Within the European context, as shown in Figure 3, even when looking at the most dramatic case of Slovakia, where the TFR declines from 3.5 children per women between 1950-1955 to approximately 1.3 between 2010-2015, it is only a twofold decline during 60 years, while Brazil decreased almost six times in 65 years. No country in Europe underwent such a substantial decline, nor did they decline from such high levels of fertility.

Figure 3. Total fertility rate (TFR), selected European Countries, 1950-2015 3.5 3.0 TFR(UN estimates) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 Year Region Austria France Germany Slovakia Spain Sw eden Ukraine Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition/ Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre, ECLAC Population Division - Population database, the 2015 revision The case of Brazil As previously mentioned, Brazil is the most radical case of fertility decline among the countries of South America and the whole of Latin America and the Caribbean. As indicated on the Figure below, the total fertility rate plummeted from a level of 6.15 children per woman in 1950 to a level of 1.75 in 2015. In only 65 years the total fertility rate in Brazil declined six times. No other LAC country underwent such a dramatic decline. As we can see on Figure 4, even countries that reached below replacement levels much earlier than Brazil, and also at a very fast pace, as is the case of Cuba and