Looking ahead Recovering in the midst of an international financial - - PDF document

looking ahead recovering in the midst of an international
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Looking ahead Recovering in the midst of an international financial - - PDF document

Rapid adjustment of real economy Hr algun raunhagkerfis Selabanki slands Looking ahead Recovering in the midst of an international financial crisis Svein Harald ygard Governor, Central Bank of Iceland Samtk verslunar og


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Seðlabanki Íslands

Looking ahead – Recovering in the midst of an international financial crisis

Svein Harald Øygard Governor, Central Bank of Iceland

Samtök verslunar og þjónustu

  • 20. mars 2009

Rapid adjustment of real economy

Hröð aðlögun raunhagkerfis

Turnaround in international trade

Umskipti í utanríkisviðskiptum

Disinflation process underway

Verðbólguhjöðnun er hafin

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The exchange rate has remained broadly stable

Gengið hefur verið tiltölulega stöðugt

The risk premium remains high

Áhættuálag hefur haldist hátt

Monetary easing commences

  • The MPC has voted to lower the policy rate by 1

percentage point to 17 percent

  • Economic indicators suggest that conditions for

easing are in place

  • The fragility of private balance sheets calls for

exchange rate stability

  • Important steps in the restructuring and re-

establishment of the financial system will be taken in the next few months

  • The easing cycle must proceed with care
  • Additional rate-setting meeting April 8, 2009

Vision for the journey ahead

Q 3 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 4 2009 2010 New growth & stability Q 1 2009

Financial Markets

  • Negotiation processes
  • Restructuring
  • Recapitalisation

Fiscal Policy

  • Medium-term

budget adjustments Real Economy

  • Removal of

inflationary pressure

  • Exports > Imports

Monetary Policy

  • Monetary policy for new stability
  • Gradual easing as stability allows
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SLIDE 3

3 Vision for the journey ahead

Q 3 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 4 2009 2010

A fully

  • perational

banking system

New growth & stability Q 1 2009

Financial Markets

  • Negotiation processes
  • Restructuring
  • Recapitalisation

Fiscal Policy

  • Medium-term

budget adjustments Real Economy

  • Removal of

inflationary pressure

  • Exports > Imports

Monetary Policy

  • Monetary policy for new stability
  • Gradual easing as stability allows

Clarity on State/ external debt and debt service

Vision for the journey ahead

Q 3 2009 Q 2 2009 Q 4 2009 2010

A fully

  • perational

banking system

New growth & stability Q 1 2009

Financial Markets

  • Negotiation processes
  • Restructuring
  • Recapitalisation

Fiscal Policy

  • Medium-term

budget adjustments Real Economy

  • Removal of

inflationary pressure

  • Exports > Imports

Monetary Policy

  • Monetary policy for new stability
  • Gradual easing as stability allows

Resources for growth Clarity on State/ external debt and debt service Solidified balance sheets Inflation approaching “target level” Capital controls eased as stability is in place New demand impulses Program for “currency earning growth”

Economic fundamentals of Iceland are strong and should enable new growth The “blood system of the economy” – the financial system – is weakened and must be cured Accumulated debts a heavy burden on the State and the country