Late Cycle Trends in the Small-Balance Loan Market February 11, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 18, 2022 320 likes •432 views

Late Cycle Trends in the Small-Balance Loan Market February 11, 2020 Presented by: Randy Fuchs Principal/Co-Founder Boxwood Means, LLC Another Solid Year for SBL Origination Volume Secondary Markets Have Gained Share Small-Cap CRE Prices

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Late Cycle Trends in the Small-Balance Loan Market

February 11, 2020

Presented by: Randy Fuchs Principal/Co-Founder Boxwood Means, LLC

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Another Solid Year for SBL Origination Volume

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Secondary Markets Have Gained Share

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Small-Cap CRE Prices Have Largely Recovered

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Linkage between Small-Cap CRE and Housing Prices Endures

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But Price Gains Have Been Uneven

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Notably though, Space Market Fundamentals Are Bending Over

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Aggregate Leasing Demand Has Plummeted

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Commercial Rents May Have Peaked

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Watch List: Important End-of-Cycle Factors for SBL Lenders

The following are strongly correlated with small-cap CRE prices:

Home Prices
Small Business Establishments (under 50 employees)
Blue-Collar Employment
Blue-Collar Small Establishments
Middle-Age Population (35-65 yrs.)
Professional Small Establishments