June 21, 2012 Q2 The great balancing act Risk: Europe still - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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June 21, 2012 Q2 The great balancing act Risk: Europe still - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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June 21, 2012 Q2 The great balancing act Risk: Europe still presents largest downside to the economy Macro: US consumption still held back by deleveraging Equities: still historically cheap, but what is the catalyst? FX: As China

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June 21, 2012

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Q2 – The great balancing act

Source: infiniteunknown.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/european-central-bank-ecb.png

  • Risk: Europe still presents largest downside to the economy
  • Macro: US consumption still held back by deleveraging
  • Equities: still historically cheap, but what is the catalyst?
  • FX: As China slows, AUDUSD will have a rough time
  • Commodities: oil markets face numerous obstacles
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Europe, out of control

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Europe, out of control

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EU banks are hoarding liquidity

Source: infiniteunknown.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/european-central-bank-ecb.png

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Deposits are fleeing from peripheral Europe

Source: islamicfinancenews.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/coin21.jpg

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How much more can society take?

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Why unit cost does not matter – soon!

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Information Technology as % of Stock Indices

Information technology (% of stock index) Total return (% YTD LCY)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Saxo Bank Strategy & Research

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Is the Eurozone past the lowest point?

Source: http://arizonamun.org/mundi/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/eu-flag.jpg

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US job data have surprised, will it continue?

http://www.spectator.co.uk/blogs/media/8.91/Image/85060127.jpg

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US consumer spending expands least since 1947

Source: http://www.albatros-maraton.dk/rejseoversigten/newyorkmarathon/Gallery/New%20York%20city.jpg

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Trend in long-term US yields continues

Source: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/timeline-assets/images/large/1935_baby-bond.jpg

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Is China heading for a hard or soft landing?

Source: shrani.si/f/3G/BC/4sSZLt7L/shenzen.jpg

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Saxo Bank global macro forecasts

Source: http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/gm-body-shop-in-china-gmsgmcn_04.jpg

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Global equities are historically cheap

Source: http://cdn-wac.emirates247.com/polopoly_fs/1.248840.1274897935!/image/2675270068.jpg

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Earnings estimates are flat – what is the next catalyst?

Source: mastersoftrivia.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/nasdaq2.jpg

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No more tail wind from profit margin expansion

Source: http://www.whitegadget.com/attachments/pc-wallpapers/67763d1313472077-apple-store-apple-store-picture.jpg

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More downside for EURUSD on ECB money printing?

Source: http://dailyreckoning.com/files/2010/05/EuroGoesOffTheDeepEnd.jpg

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Can AUDUSD stay high as China slows?

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/IronOre.jpg

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Saxo Bank global FX forecast

Source: asiaforexmentor.com/webpages/eurodollar.jpg

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Oil markets face a bumpy road

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/US_Navy_030328-M-0000X-005_Kuwaiti_firefighters_fight_to_secure_a_burning_oil_well_in_the_Rumaila_oilfields.jpg

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