June 11 th , 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID - PDF document

June 11 th , 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: COLORADO 2018 GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY SUMMARY This memorandum is a summary of an automated voice recorded and cell phone survey of 593 likely Republican primary voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted on June 6 th and 7 th , 2018. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.02% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The results were weighted to reflect the voter turnout demographics of past Republican primary elections in Colorado. Survey Findings Treasurer Walker Stapleton currently leads the Republican primary field for Governor with a 13-point lead and 36% support. His closest challenger is businessman Victor Mitchell with 23% support. Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez has 10% support, Doug Robinson has 4% and 27% of likely Republican primary voters are undecided. Among male voters, Walker Stapleton holds a commanding 23-point lead over Victor Mitchell. Among female voters the election is much tighter and within the survey margin of error. Among seniors aged 65 and older, the most dominant and important Republican primary voter sub-group, Walker Stapleton leads Victor Mitchell by 24 points, 47% to 23% respectively. This contest is far from over, with Victor Mitchell finally being able to build some momentum after spending more than a million dollars introducing himself to voters. A major factor that will decide this race is if Victor Mitchell’s attack ads are effective moving voters away from Walker Stapleton. The truth is, nobody really knows the answer Colorado Governor Republican Primary Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup* All Trmp Evan Trad Very Voters Men Wom Rep Unaf 65+ Rep Rep Rep Con Cons Mod Stap. Lead +13 +23 +3 +14 +7 +24 +10 +26 +12 +21 +9 +7 Stapleton 36% 44% 29% 37% 30% 47% 39% 44% 30% 41% 37% 29% Mitchell 23% 21% 26% 23% 23% 23% 29% 18% 18% 20% 28% 22% Lopez 10% 9% 10% 9% 11% 9% 7% 15% 7% 13% 7% 9% Robinson 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 2% 5% 7% 4% 3% 6% Undec. 27% 22% 31% 28% 30% 17% 23% 18% 38% 22% 25% 34% *Sample demographics: Men 49%, Women 51%, Republican 86%, unaffiliated 14%, seniors 65 or older 47%, Trump Republican 39%, Evangelical Republican 22%, Traditional Republican 20%, very conservative 35%, conservative 39%, moderate 24%.

Magellan Strategies Colorado 2018 Governor Republican Primary Survey Summary 2 Field Dates: June 6 th to 7 th , 2018, 593n, MoE +/- 4.02% to that question just yet. For Victor Mitchell to be in a position to win, his negative ads have to work with only two weeks to Election Day. We are somewhat surprised the timing of Victor Mitchell’s attack ads coming so late in the election. Past ballot return data show Colorado Republican primary voters return their ballots early. This is thought to be because nearly 50% of likely voters are aged 65 and older, retired and have more time on their hands. More than 35% of the total Republican primary vote could be cast by the end of this week. Colorado Governor Republican Candidate Image Ratings Walker Stapleton has a very strong image rating with 51% of likely voters having a favorable opinion of him and only 15% having and unfavorable opinion of him. With only two weeks to go before Election Day, the Stapleton Campaign and his campaign independent expenditure group have done a good job introducing and positioning him among likely Republican primary voters. Victor Mitchell’s image rating is respectable with 39% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him and 15% having an unfavorable opinion of him. However, Victor Mitchell’s name recognition could be better, with 26% of likely voters having heard of him but do not have an opinion of him, and 20% of respondents having never heard of him. In comparing the two candidate image ratings, it is hard not to see the significant challenge the Mitchell Campaign faces in driving voters away from Walker Stapleton. Particularly among seniors aged 65 and older, who are nearly 50% of the total vote. Among those senior voters, nearly 6 in 10 have a favorable opinion of Walker Stapleton. As we pointed out before, the attack ads targeting Walker Stapleton need to be very effective for Victor Mitchell to be in a position to win this election. Walker Stapleton Image Rating by Voter Subgroup All Trmp Evan Trad Very Voters Men Wom Rep Unaf 65+ Rep Rep Rep Con Cons Mod Favorable 51% 55% 47% 52% 43% 59% 54% 56% 50% 57% 51% 43% Unfavor. 15% 13% 17% 14% 18% 14% 14% 12% 15% 12% 15% 18% No Opin. 20% 17% 23% 20% 24% 22% 21% 19% 18% 19% 22% 20% Nvr. Hrd. 14% 15% 13% 14% 15% 5% 11% 13% 17% 12% 12% 19% *Sample demographics: Men 49%, Women 51%, Republican 86%, unaffiliated 14%, seniors 65 or older 47%, Trump Republican 39%, Evangelical Republican 22%, Traditional Republican 20%, very conservative 35%, conservative 39%, moderate 24%. Victor Mitchell Image Rating by Voter Subgroup All Trmp Evan Trad Very Voters Men Wom Rep Unaf 65+ Rep Rep Rep Con Cons Mod Favorable 39% 39% 40% 39% 41% 41% 48% 37% 30% 40% 43% 35% Unfavor. 15% 18% 12% 16% 9% 15% 14% 19% 14% 17% 14% 12% No Opin. 26% 24% 27% 25% 27% 33% 24% 26% 30% 23% 23% 34% Nvr. Hrd. 20% 19% 21% 20% 23% 11% 14% 18% 26% 20% 20% 19% Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585

Magellan Strategies Colorado 2018 Governor Republican Primary Survey Summary 3 Field Dates: June 6 th to 7 th , 2018, 593n, MoE +/- 4.02% Conclusion With two weeks before Election Day, is the Republican nomination for Governor a done deal? Based on the findings of this survey, absolutely not. However, it is hard to argue that Walker Stapleton does not have the inside track and that Victor Mitchell has a more difficult path to victory. One final observation of the dynamics of this race is that Walker Stapleton’s Campaign and his campaign independent expenditure group are likely to begin attacking Victor Mitchell. They also have the resources to do it and it would make the most sense. We shall see. Survey Commissioned By This survey was fielded and paid for by Magellan Strategies. We are not working for or with any candidates, individuals or independent expenditure committees with an interest in the 2018 Colorado Republican primary for Governor. For any questions regarding the survey findings or methodology, please contact David Flaherty by calling our office at 303-861- 8585 or email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. Survey Sample The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered Republican or unaffiliated voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. A survey presentation is also available on our website at www.MagellanStrategies.com. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a national full-service voter opinion polling and survey research firm. We have provided polling services to Republican candidates, ballot issue campaigns, government relation firms, trade associations, and local governments since 2006. We also offer voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting services. Our office is located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585. The survey topline and crosstab results follow. Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585

Magellan Strategies Colorado Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 593n live and autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican Primary voters in the state of Colorado. The interviews were conducted June 6 th - 7 th , 2018. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.02% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past Republican primary election voting demographics. T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an unaffiliated voter? Republican ............................................................. 86% Unaffiliated ............................................................ 14% T2. How likely are you to vote in the 2018 Republican Primary election to choose a candidate for Governor? Extremely Likely ..................................................... 83% Very Likely ............................................................. 11% Somewhat likely ....................................................... 6% T3. As you may know, unaffiliated voters in Colorado can now participate in the Democrat or Republican primary election. Do you intend to vote in the Democrat primary, the Republican primary or do not plan on voting in the primary election at all? Republican ........................................................... 100% T4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? Favorable ............................................................... 51% Unfavorable ........................................................... 15% Heard of, no opinion .............................................. 20% Never heard of ....................................................... 14%