Joint CEN-ENTSOG workshop Wobbe Index and Gross Calorific Value in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Joint CEN-ENTSOG workshop

Wobbe Index and Gross Calorific Value in the European gas value chain

Brussels 28-09-2017

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1 Opening and aim of the workshop

Kris de Wit - CEN Hendrik Pollex - ENTSOG

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Aims of the workshop

WI and GCV in the European gas value chain

Illustrate gas quality values Exchange on data analysis methodologies Start building a solid data base for CEN SFGas Gas Quality Study scenarios

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results

Antonio Gómez Bruque - ENTSOG

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Context and scope of the survey

WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Voluntary ENTSOG contribution to the standardization work of CEN Focused on gas quality delivered at TSO exits Focused on Wobbe index and gross calorific value Hourly resolution or 15 min when available Complementary approach for ENTSOG’s Gas Quality Outlook Both points with high and low variability MJ/m3 (15/15) and kWh/m3 (25/0) Covering 2015 and 2016 data

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Disclaimer

This report was prepared in a professional and workmanlike manner by ENTSOG

• n the basis of information collected and compiled by ENTSOG. It contains

ENTSOG own analysis based upon this information. All content is provided “as is” without any warranty of any kind as to the completeness, accuracy, fitness for any particular purpose or any use of results based on this information and ENTSOG hereby expressly disclaims all warranties and representations, whether express or implied, including without limitation, warranties or representations of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. ENTSOG is not liable for any consequence resulting from the reliance and/or the use of any information hereby provided. The reader in its capacity as professional individual or entity shall be responsible for seeking to verify the accurate and relevant information needed for its own assessment and decision and shall be responsible for use of the document or any part of it for any purpose other than that for which it is intended.

WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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Participation summary

WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Points by country Points by supply origin Belgium 9 Algerian 3 Denmark 8 Biomethane 3 France 8 LNG 8 Germany 25 Libyan 1 Hungary 14 Mix 76 Ireland 4 National production 18 Italy 15 Norwegian 4 Netherlands 9 Russian 23 Poland 14 Total 136 Slovakia 4 Slovenia 3 Spain 10 Ukraine 5 United Kingdom 8 Total 136

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Participation summary

WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

By type of point By resolution Biomethane injection 3 15 min 37 City gate 55 hourly 99 EU import point 11 Total 136 Industrial - combustion 3 Industrial - non combustion 3 Interconnection point 27 LNG terminal 7 Power generation 4 Production point 6 Transit 14 UGS (underground storage) 3 Total 136

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results – Wobbe index ranges

Antonio Gómez Bruque - ENTSOG

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Timed series of data

> Each data set is categorised by country, type of point and supply origin > Each pair of WI and GCV values is labelled with a time stamp

Basic treatment and statistics

> For each data set the following calculations are done:

• Maximum value
• Minimum value
• 95 percentile
• 5 percentile

> Values outside EN-437 (from 45.7 to 54.7 MJ/m3 (15/15)) are discarded > Values known (e.g. calibrations) or suspected to be wrong are also taken out

Point master data MS Netherlands TSO GTS Province/region (NUTS 3) NL339 Unique code NL339-001 Units MJ/m3

• Ref. cond. (comb./vol.)

25/0 Granularity 15 min Type of point City gate Type of gas National production Gas quality values from last 2 years Date Time WI GCV

01-01-2015 00:15 54.1621 42.236 01-01-2015 00:30 54.18 42.243 01-01-2015 00:45 54.1524 42.225 01-01-2015 01:00 54.1422 42.217 01-01-2015 01:15 54.1735 42.238 01-01-2015 01:30 54.1691 42.238

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

WI Measured ranges by country

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

MJ/m3 (15/15) 52.75 52.00 51.25 50.50 49.75 49.00 48.25 47.50 46.75 46.00 45.25

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Wobbe Index 95 percentile

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Wobbe Index 5 percentile

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 Algerian Libyan LNG National production Norwegian Russian kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

WI Measured ranges by source

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 France Italy Poland Spain United Kingdom kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

LNG WI Measured ranges by member state

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

National production WI measured ranges by member state

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

41.000 43.000 45.000 47.000 49.000 51.000 53.000 55.000 57.000

WI Measured ranges by type of point (MJ/m3, 15/15)

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

For a given category, the maximum value represents the highest maximum of all datasets, same applies for the 95 percentile; similarly, the minimum value represents the lowest minimum of all datasets, same applies for the 5 percentile.

12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 BE251 BE234 BE236 DE259 DEA2D DED21 DE219 DE5 DK032 ES243 FR252 FR824 HU211 HU311 HU332 IE011 ITC46 ITF43 ITI12 NL113 NL322 PL3 PL14 PL21 UA01 UA07 BE DE DKES FR HU IE IT NL PL UAUK kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

WI Measured ranges at exit points by country

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results – WI frequency distribution

Peter van Wesenbeeck - GTS (ENTSOG Gas Quality KG member)

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Frequency distribution

> The EN 437 range has been divided in steps of 0.5 MJ/m3. > For each data set, the number of values found within each step is calculated. > By grouping data sets with a common feature (supply source) an approximate frequency histogram can be derived.

13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16 10 20 30 40 50 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Frequency distribution of Wobbe index

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Frequency distribution of Wobbe index

Algerian Biomethane LNG Libyan Mix National production Norwegian Russian

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Wobbe Index frequency distributions by country

Belgium Denmark France Germany Hungary Ireland Italy

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Wobbe Index frequency distributions by country

Netherlands Poland Slovakia Spain Ukraine United Kingdom

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results – WI range of change

Peter van Wesenbeeck - GTS (ENTSOG Gas Quality KG member)

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Range of change analysis

> For each data set, changes in WI are calculated as the maximum value minus the minimum value, using different moving time windows: 15 min, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 month, 6 months and 2 years. > For each time window, the widest change ever registered is recorded. > Then, data sets sharing a common feature (e.g. supply source) are grouped. The maximum values among all data sets are displayed.

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 15 min hourly daily monthly 6-monthly 2-year

Range of change per time interval (MJ/m3)

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

0.5 1 1.5 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15 min hour day month 6-month 2-year

kWh/m3 (25/0)

MJ/m3 (15/15)

WI absolute maximum (among all points) range of change per time interval and source

Algerian Biomethane LNG Mix National production Norwegian Russian Libyan

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

Range of change probability analysis

> For each data set the variations in WI are calculated as the maximum value minus the minimum value within a given time window (e.g. 15 min). > Variations are classified in different steps of 0.5 MJ/m3 > The number of variations greater than a given step is divided by the total number

• f variations. The result reflects the probability of a given change.

> The exercise is repeated for different time windows (1 hour, 1 day, 1 month…)

1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

MJ/m3

Range of change probability per time interval

quarter hourly daily monthly 6-monthly

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

0.00 0.15 0.29 0.44 0.59 0.73 0.88 1.02 1.17 1.32 1.46 1.61 1.76 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Range of change probability within 15 min

LNG Mix National production Norwegian Russian Algerian

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 0.000% 0.001% 0.010% 0.100% 1.000% 10.000% 100.000% 0.00 0.15 0.29 0.44 0.59 0.73 0.88 1.02 1.17 1.32 1.46 1.61 1.76 MJ/m3 (15/15) kWh/m3 (25/0)

Range of change probability within 15 min (all points)

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results – A few figures for GCV

Antonio Gómez Bruque - ENTSOG

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

10.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 34.9 36.9 38.9 40.9 42.9 44.9 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

GCV Measured ranges by country

Minimum Maximum 5 percentile 95 percentile

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 34.9 35.9 36.9 37.9 38.9 39.9 40.9 41.9 42.9 43.9 44.9 kWh/m3 (25/0) MJ/m3 (15/15)

Frequency distribution of GCV

Algerian Biomethane LNG Libyan Mix National production Norwegian Russian

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WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15 min hour day month 6-month 2-year MJ/m3 (15/15)

GCV absolute maximum (among all points) range of change per time interval and source

Algerian Biomethane LNG Mix National production Norwegian Russian Libyan

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4 Presentation of methodology and TSO results – Preliminary remarks

Antonio Gómez Bruque - ENTSOG

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Preliminary remarks on WI TSO results

WI and GCV in Europe – TSO results

A representative sample: more than 130 data sets from 17 TSOs across 13 countries Great variety of WI ranges, also at individual exit points, often supplied with mixes While imports to EU may be within a 5 MJ/m3 range, national production has a wider range Frequency distribution of WI strongly influenced by the source(s) Range of change: the longer the period observed the wider the change Range of change: some supply sources within 3 MJ/m3 but others within 5 MJ/m3 Very wide variations on (exit) points supplied with mixes of gas or indigenous production: above 6 MJ/m3

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6 Introduction to long term gas quality monitoring outlook 2018

Antonio Gómez Bruque - ENTSOG

Regulatory basis: EU REG 703-2015, article 18:

> ENTSOG shall provide a „Long Term gas quality outlook in order to identify potential trends of gas quality parameters and respective potential variability within the next 10 years“ > The GQ-Outlook shall:

• include at least Wobbe-Index (WI) and Gross Calorific Value (GCV) as gas quality

parameters

• include new supply sources
• published consistent and aligned with the Ten Year Network Development Plan
• for every gas quality parameter and region include a range in which the

parameters are likely to evolve

• define reference values of gas quality depending upon an analysis of the previous

years

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Gas Quality Outlook

Edition 2017 – Gas quality reference values

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Gas Quality Outlook

Edition 2017 – Regions (remove footnote)

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Gas Quality Outlook

UK and Ireland West South-East North-East North- West North-South corridor

Regions for gas quality outlook Regions for gas quality outlook Regions for gas quality outlook

Edition 2017 – Example of regional outlook

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Gas Quality Outlook

Relation to the CEN survey

> Gas Quality Outlook focuses on how the evolution of supply patterns may affect quality ranges in different regions > CEN survey has added a focus on individual (exit) points, including not only value but changes per time interval

Improvements for 2018 edition

> Revision of composition of the regions > General update of reference gas quality data:

• Inclusion of reference values for biomethane
• Revision of LNG values in view of LNG supplies from US and new values from UK

Next steps

> Gas reference values will be publicly consulted within the TYNDP 2018 process. > Publication by mid 2018

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Gas Quality Outlook

Thank You for Your Attention

ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas Avenue de Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels EML: WWW: www.entsog.eu Antonio Gómez Bruque Interoperability Adviser Antonio.gomez@entsog.eu