Join the conversation @apartmentwire U.S. Trends Enrollment and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Join the conversation @apartmentwire U.S. Trends Enrollment and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Deciphering Data Taylor Gunn Student Housing Analytics Lead Axiometrics Join the conversation @apartmentwire U.S. Trends Enrollment and Demographics U.S. Change in Enrollment and Growth College Age Population Sources: Axiometrics,


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Deciphering Data

Taylor Gunn Student Housing Analytics Lead Axiometrics

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U.S. Trends – Enrollment and Demographics

Sources: Axiometrics, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Census

U.S. Change in Enrollment and Growth College Age Population

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Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment

Sources: Axiometrics, BLS

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Axio175 Universities: Change in Enrollment and Growth

Sources: Axiometrics, University Fact Books, IPEDS

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Demand Growth by University Size

Axio175 Average Change in Enrollment Axio175 Average Enrollment Growth

Sources: Axiometrics, University Fact Books, IPEDS

Each dot represents an individual university.

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National Student Housing Beds Delivered by Year

Based on Axiometrics data as of September 20, 2016. Only includes purpose-built student housing properties, does not include on-campus or student competitive properties. The total for 2017 is preliminary and includes planned

  • properties. The total for 2016 may change

as construction concludes or gets pushed to a later date.

Sources: Axiometrics

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Map of Deliveries by Year Built

Sources: Axiometrics

Based on Axiometrics’ coverage as of September 2016. Only includes off-campus beds, does not include on-campus or student competitive. Includes properties scheduled for 2017 that have already started construction and those still considered planned properties.

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Prelease by Month

Source: Axiometrics Note: Based on Axiometrics data as of August 2016. Prelease only includes off-campus purpose-built properties that disclosed prelease for the above months in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Annual effective rent growth is based on average effective rent from November 2014-August 2015 and November 2015-August 2016.

Annual Effective Rent Growth by Distance

Each dot represents an individual property

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Average Performance by Size of University

Source: Axiometrics Note: Based on Axiometrics data as of August 2016. Prelease only includes off-campus purpose-built properties that disclosed prelease in August 2015 and 2016. Effective rent growth is based on average effective rent from November 2014-August 2015 and November 2015-August 2016.

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DECIPHERING DATA: TIPS TO ESTIMATE STUDENT AND INVESTOR DEMAND

Jeanette I. Rice Americas Head of Investment Research CBRE

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Deciphering Data

Special Thanks to CBRE Student Housing Investment Sales Team

  • Jaclyn Fitts, Director of Student Housing
  • William Vonderfecht, Associate
  • Casey Schaefer, Associate

BLVD, Dallas, TX (SMU)

Investment

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Transaction Volume – Annual

50 71 91 96 103 154 72

68 90 152 120 134 212 171

3 8 14 11 7 19 12 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016 Number of Transactions Number of Properties Number of Portfolios $ Volume (Millions)

University View, College Park, MD (UMD)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016.

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Transaction Volume – H1 Comparisons (thru q2 of each year)

13 34 32 26 49 72 72 15 36 33 33 73 99

171

2 2 1 4 5 12 12 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 30 60 90 120 150 180 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Number of Transactions Number of Properties

University View, College Park, MD (UMD)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016.

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Transaction Volume – Portfolios

3 8 13 11 7 19 12 18 26 71 35 38 77 111 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 40 80 120 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016 Number of Transactions Number of Properties $ Volume (Millions)

University View, College Park, MD (UMD)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016.

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Cap Rates – Student Housing vs. Conventional Multifamily

5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Student Housing Multifamily

Campus Lodge Tampa, FL (USF)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group (student housing), Real Capital Analytics (conventional multifamily), Q2 2016.

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Cap Rates – Pedestrian vs. Non-Pedestrian Assets

Campus Lodge Tampa, FL (USF)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016.

6.62% 6.43% 6.02% 5.81% 5.74% 6.79% 6.80% 6.34% 6.01% 5.88% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% 6.25% 6.50% 6.75% 7.00% 7.25% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016 Less Than 0.5 Miles Greater Than 0.5 Miles 37 bps 32 bps 15 bps 17 bps 20 bps

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7.00% 6.46% 6.49% 6.37% 6.72% 6.17% 5.94% 5.64% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% 6.25% 6.50% 6.75% 7.00% 7.25% 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016 Non-Division I Division I

Cap Rates – Football and Student Housing

TCU, Fort Worth, TX

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. Division 1 FBS schools. Analysis excludes transactions in metros of New York City, Dallas, Denver, Chicago and California.

55 bps 29 bps 73 bps 28 bps

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Cap Rates – Football and Student Housing

TCU, Fort Worth, TX

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. Division 1 FBS schools. Analysis excludes transactions in metros of New York City, Dallas, Denver, Chicago and California. *Power 5 consists of universities with football programs in The Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference, and Southeastern Conference.

18 16 34 6.37% 6.19% 5.51% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% 6.25% 6.50% 6.75% 7.00% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Non-Division I Division I, Non-Power 5* Division I, Power 5* Cap Rate H1 2016 Average Number of Transactions Transaction Volume Average Transaction Cap Rate

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Pricing Trends Per Bed – All

$23 $28 $34 $36 $38 $44 $41 $42 $39 $45 $48 $51 $51 $61 $68

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016** Thousands

BLVD63 San Diego, CA (SDSU)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. *The 2012 ACC-Campus Acquisitions and ACC-Kayne Anderson transactions and 2016 Scion-University House and HSRE-CCG transactions were not included in this data.

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Pricing Trends Per Bed – By Vintage

BLVD63 San Diego, CA (SDSU)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. *The 2012 ACC-Campus Acquisitions and ACC-Kayne Anderson transactions and 2016 Scion-University House and HSRE-CCG transactions were not included in this data.

$35 $31 $44 $45 $48 $50 $46 $48 $62 $54 $78 $68 $80 $97 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016** Thousands Greater than 10 Years Old Less than or equal to 10 Years Old

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Pricing Trends Per Bed – By Distance to Campus

BLVD63 San Diego, CA (SDSU)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. *The 2012 ACC-Campus Acquisitions and ACC-Kayne Anderson transactions and 2016 Scion-University House and HSRE-CCG transactions were not included in this data.

$45 $43 $50 $47 $59 $58 $83 $66 $86 $90 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2012* 2013 2014 2015 Thru Q2 2016** Thousands Greater than 0.5 miles Less than or equal to 0.5 Miles

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Seller Profile

Developer 40% Fund 9% Institution 9% Lender/ Special Servicer 1% Private 25% Public REIT 9% TIC 5% University 2%

2015

Developer 49% Fund 14% Private 26% Public REIT 7% TIC 3% University 1%

2016 (thru Q2)

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. Based on total dollar volume. *The 2016 Scion- University House and HSRE-CCG transactions which occurred in H1 2016 were not included in this data.

Sterling Summit Reno, NV (UNR)

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Buyer Profile

Source: CBRE National Student Housing Group, Q2 2016. Based on total dollar volume. *The 2016 Scion- University House and HSRE-CCG transactions which occurred in H1 2016 were not included in this data.

Sterling Summit Reno, NV (UNR)

Developer 0% Fund 30% Institution 11% Private 48% Public REIT 8% University 3%

2015

Developer 2% Fund 12% Institution 21% Private 50% Public REIT 4% University 11%

2016 (thru Q2)