John D Alexander, PhD Forest Service Research and Development - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Avian Conservation Science T

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Strategic Forest Planning: A New Multi-species Approach to Evaluating Forest Condition John D Alexander, PhD

Forest Service Research and Development Seminar Series: Innovations in science and technology for monitoring, assessment, and inventory efforts April 29, 2014

Klamath Bird Observatory

(Alexander et al. 2004; KS Ecology Proceedings)

Advancing bird and habitat conservation through science, education, and partnerships.

Outline

• Challenges:
• Science – Management Divide
• Closing Adaptive Management Cycle
• Learning communities for ecosystem management:
• Participatory Social Science
• Strategy for Applied Science and Delivery
• Avian Conservation Science T
• ols:
• Adaptive Management Applied – beyond NEPA
• Examples: Northwest Forest Management
• Innovations:
• Fine-scaled Modeling
• Landscape Change
• Conclusions:
• Meeting IM&A Objectives

J Stephens CJ Ralph B Bresson N Seavy B Altman M Betts S Veloz S Shirley K Halstead G Geupel M Pitkin S Cuenca D Clayton S Stresser A Marcus T Will V Sturtevant M Scott K Rosenberg D Jongsomjit N Elliot L Salas G Ballard Z Yang R Hutchinson K McGarigal J Rousseau J Livaudais

Acknowledgements

Science-based T

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• Species assessment database
• Standard monitoring techniques
• Conservation plans
• Data-rich models
• Conservation design process

(Alexander 2011; NABCI 2011)

Context

Challenges

• Science and Management
• Separate Traditions
• Compartmentalized
• Ineffective Science

Delivery & Application

• Community Learning
• Collective Knowledge
• Challenge Norms
• Compartmentalized
• Relevant Applied Science

& Tools

(Bliss1999; Smith 2000; Roux et al. 2006; Bormann et al. 2007; Scott et al. 2007; Graffy 2008; Hall & Fleishman 2010)

Participatory Action Research

• Degree of community control
• Reciprocal production of knowledge
• Utility and action of outcomes

Engage agency community for better understanding and change

(McIntyre 2008; Wulfhorst et al. 2008,; Alexander 2011)

Challenges:

Science Not Used Culture - When to engage? Consultants, Science-based NGOs, Environmental Advocates

ORWACA Meeting – April 2005

Conservation Objectives Management Objectives

Monitoring & Research

• Relationships
• Early Collaboration
• Applied Science
• Delivery

(communications)

(Alexander 2011)

Science-based NGOs

Bridging the Science-Management Divide

Avian Conservation Science T

• ols Applied

Adaptive Management

• Cost effective
• Engage leadership
• Consensus

Decision Support T

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• Who is the audience?
• What is the question?
• What are the information gaps?
• Where are the transfer points?

(Alexander et al. 2009; Williams et. al. 2009; Stephens et al. 2011)

Catalyst for Adaptive Management

Avian Knowledge Network

(Iliff 2009)

Stewardship Responsibility/Opportunity (NEPA)

(Rich et al. 2004; USFWS 2008; NABCI 2011; Panjabi et al., 2012)

Quantitative Habitat and Population Objectives

Beyond NEPA

• Align with broad objectives of RMPs/LMPs
• Multiple species at multiple scales

Focal Species – Habitat Attributes

(Altman and Alexander 2012; Chase and Geupel 2005)

Conservation Objectives

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (USDA 2008)

Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (USDA 2008)

Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Climate-wise Sceince

Rufous Hummingbird

(Veloz et al. 2013)

(Veloz et al. 2013)

Bird Conservation Hotspots (Zonation)

Conifer species Grassland species Oak woodland species Riparian species

(Veloz et al. 2013)

Forest Restoration Priorities

Forest Restoration Priorities

Focal Species Habitat Objectives

(Altman and Alexander 2012)

Focal Species Habitat Objectives

(Altman and Alexander 2012)

New Modeling Approach

• High-resolution Predictions
• Habitat Change Detection
• Informed by Habitat Relationships

Boosted Regression Tree Models Average AUC - 40 species 0.87 (SD = 0.067) 0.71 to 0.99 Band 1 + 2 + 3 etc. = Presence/Absence

(Shirley et al. 2013)

Stacked Distribution Models

(Halstead 2013)

Etc… N = 48 species

Predicted species richness

• r habitat suitability

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland Bewick's Wren Bullock's Oriole California Towhee Lesser Goldfinch Western Scrub-Jay Western Wood-pewee White-breasted Nuthatch Broadleaf-conifer mix Bushtit Lazuli Bunting Spotted Towhee Black-headed Grosbeak *Black-thr. Gray Warbler Nashville Warbler High volume conifer Golden-crowned Kinglet Townsend's Solitaire *Brown Creeper *Hermit Warbler *Pacific-slope Flycatcher *Winter Wren Low volume conifer Mountain Chickadee Green-tailed Towhee Conifer generalists Red-breasted Nuthatch Yellow-rumped Warbler (Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

IM&A System Objectives

Goal 1: Support effective decision-making by providing relevant and credible information.  Objective 1: Priority management questions  Objective 2: Integration and scalability  Objective 3: Ensure relevant science.  Objective 4: Quality and consistency  Objective 5: Timely and accessible Goal 2: Ensure that all activities are inclusive and comprehensive.  Objective 1: Understand partner and stakeholder interests and address shared information needs  Objective 2: Address issues across boundaries Goal 3: Ensure system is responsive and adaptive to change  Objective 1: Supports management and is responsive to change  Objective 2: Responsive and adaptive to changing agency capacity

T estimonial:

Barb Bresson

Service First: US Forest Service Region 6 Oregon Washington BLM Avian Conservation Program Coordinator

Questions / Discussion John Alexander jda@KlamathBird.org