January 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation City of Fort Collins General - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

january 1 2019 actuarial valuation city of fort collins
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January 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation City of Fort Collins General - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

January 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation City of Fort Collins General Employees Retirement Plan Joel Stewart, FSA, EA, MAAA Katie Antoline, FSA, EA, MAAA MARCH 18, 2019 Meeting Agenda Purpose of Valuation 1. Actuarial Topics 2.


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SLIDE 1

MARCH 18, 2019

Joel Stewart, FSA, EA, MAAA Katie Antoline, FSA, EA, MAAA

January 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation City of Fort Collins General Employees’ Retirement Plan

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SLIDE 2

Meeting Agenda

2

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
  • Purpose of Valuation
  • Pension Valuation Elements
  • Review Assets and Liabilities
  • Overview of Results
  • Funding Analysis (Resources vs. Obligations)
  • Solvency Projections
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SLIDE 3

3

Purposes of a valuation

  • Review demographic and financial experience
  • Determine the funded status of the plan
  • Measure adequacy of the plan’s funding policy
  • Provide financial reporting information pursuant to accounting standards
  • Provide an assessment and disclosure of risk (see full valuation report for additional detail)

. This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 4

Necessary Elements of a Valuation

4

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

Actuarial Cost Method

Valuation Results

Data Assets

Assumptions

Plan of Benefits

Actuaries provide information based

  • n:
  • Probability,
  • Statistics,
  • Financial mathematics

So the Plan Sponsor is informed about…

  • Projected annual level of plan

benefits

  • Funding of those benefits
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SLIDE 5

5

Pension Plan Equation

  • Assumptions do affect calculated rates and liabilities
  • Assumptions do not affect the plan’s long-term contribution cost

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
$ 7

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Assets

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

PENSION FUND

$ $

benefits

expenses contributions

investment earnings

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SLIDE 6

6

Data summary

2018 2019 Actives

  • Number of Participants

70 57

  • Average Age

59.7 59.1

  • Average Compensation

$67,700 $68,838

  • Average Years of Service

27.2 28.2 Vested Inactive

  • Number of Participants

89 78

  • Average Monthly Benefits

$859 $854 Retirees

  • Number of Participants

242 257

  • Average Monthly Benefits

$1,213 $1,249

  • Total Participants

401 392

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 7

7

Review of key assumptions

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

.

Long-term Investment Return Assumption of 6.25%

  • 20-year geometric mean return using Milliman capital market

assumptions and 2.5% inflation is 6.2%

  • 6.2% also 10-year outlook from Horizon study
  • 6.25% long-term remains reasonable

Longevity: Pub-2010 / MP2018 (Generational)

  • Adopted this year; increased life expectancy 2-3 years (M/F)
  • Reflects longer life expectancy for younger members
  • I.e., a 65 year old today has a different life expectancy than

someone turning 65 20 years from now Assumed retirement age

  • Graded based on age (55-69)

Lump sum election

  • 15% for retirement from active status; 30% for retirement from

terminated status

  • Adopted this year for terminated status
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SLIDE 8

Summary of Plan Provisions

8

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

Normal Retirement Benefit

  • 1.5% x Average Compensation x Credited Service

Average Compensation

  • 60 Month Average of Annualized Compensation

Credited Service

  • Hours worked in a plan year ÷ 2,080

Normal Form of Payment

  • Life Annuity (other optional forms available, including single sum

payment) Normal Retirement

  • Age 65

Early Retirement

  • Age 55 (benefit reduced for earlier commencement)
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SLIDE 9

Financial Data - 2018

9

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

1.

Market Value of Assets, January 1, 2018 $ 48,807,732

2.

Income

a) Contributions

$ 1,576,991

b) Income and appreciation

(2,458,032)

c) Total

(881,041)

3.

Disbursements

a) Monthly benefits

$ 3,748,406

b) Lump sum payments

1,099,085

c) Expenses

20,131

d) Total

$ 4,867,622

4.

Net Increase/(Decrease) $ (5,748,663)

5.

Market Value of Assets, January 1, 2019 $ 43,059,069

6.

Return on Plan Assets (Prior Year)

  • 5.2%
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SLIDE 10

10

Development of projected benefit payments

1/1/2019 valuation's projected benefit payments

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

.

Actual benefit payments (including lump sums):

  • 2018 = $4.8 million
  • 2017 = $3.7 million

2019 project payments

$5.0 million

2029 project payments

$4.9 million

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SLIDE 11

11

Development of liabilities

  • Liabilities are the present value of projected benefit payments
  • Present values are as of a particular date and use a discount rate to convert the estimated

value of future payments in today’s dollars

  • Present values for this valuation
  • “As of” valuation date is 1/1/2019
  • The discount rate used is a 6.25% investment return assumption

Year of Payment Projected Payment 1/1/2019 Present Value of Projected Payment

2019 $5.0 million $5.0 million 2029 $4.9 million $2.7 million*

* $2.7 million invested at 1/1/2019 grows to $4.9 million in 10 years if it

earns 6.25% per year

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

As of 1/1/2019… Discounted present value at 6.25% of all projected benefits is $63.4 million

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SLIDE 12

12

Actuarial Liability

24% 11% 65%

Actives Vested Inactive Retirees

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 13

13

Overview of Results - Funding

2018 2019

  • 1. Market Value of Assets (MVA)

$ 48,807,729 $ 43,059,069

  • 2. Return on MVA (prior year)

16.4%

  • 5.2%
  • 3. Discount Rate for Liabilities

6.25% 6.25%

  • 4. Present Value of Future Benefits

$ 61,351,183 $ 63,402,784

  • 5. Actuarial Liability (AL)

$ 60,025,297 $ 62,288,923

  • 6. Unfunded Actuarial Liability (UAL)

(AL – MVA) $ 11,217,568 $ 19,229,854

  • 7. Funded Ratio (MVA ÷ AL)

81.31% 69.13%

  • 8. Normal Cost + Expenses

(as a % of Payroll) $ 318,155 6.71% $ 279,729 7.13%

  • 9. Years of Supplement to Amortize UAL

14 70*

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

* Plan assets are projected to be depleted within the next 25 years. See solvency projection on slide 18 for additional detail.

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SLIDE 14

Gain/Loss

14

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

1.

Actual UAL, January 1, 2018 $ 11,217,568

2.

Expected Changes during 2018 (594,042)

3.

Expected UAL, January 1, 2019 $ 10,623,526 Changes

4.

Asset (gain)/loss $ 5,407,238

5.

Salary change different than assumed (60,809)

6.

Pensioner mortality experience 445,778

7.

Retirement and other terminations 121,630

8.

Other demographic 48,290

9.

Mortality assumption change 2,857,327

  • 10. Form of payment assumption change

(213,126)

  • 11. Total

$ 8,606,328

  • 12. Actual UAL, January 1, 2019

$ 19,229,854

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SLIDE 15

15

Summary of Resources and Obligations

  • Obligations consist of the Actuarial Liability (Current) and the amount of the total liability attributable to future service, the

Present Value of Future Normal Costs (Future)

  • Resources consist of the current market value of assets (Current) and the present value of the future anticipated payroll

contributions of 10.5% of compensation (Future)

  • The difference of $18.3 million is the amount anticipated to be funded through the supplemental contribution of $1.12 million

per year. This equates to about 70 years as of the valuation date. (However, plan assets are projected to be depleted within the next 25 years).

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 16

16

Overview of Results – GASB 67/68 Disclosure Information

12/31/2017 12/31/2018

  • 1. Discount Rate for Liabilities

6.25% 5.56%

  • 2. Total Pension Liability (TPL)

$ 60,025,297 $ 66,247,577

  • 3. Fiduciary Net Position (FNP)

$ 48,807,729 $ 43,059,069

  • 4. Net Pension Liability (NPL)

$ 11,217,568 $ 23,188,508

  • 5. FNP as a % of TPL

81.31% 65.00%

  • The plan’s FNP was not projected to be available to make all projected future benefit payments of current active

and inactive employees.

  • Therefore, the TPL is calculated by discounting the benefit payments using the plan’s long-term expected rate of

return assumption to the extent that the plan’s FNP is projected to be sufficient to make projected benefit payments, and the municipal bond rate (4.10% at 12/31/2018) for the period that the plan’s FNP is not projected to be sufficient. At 12/31/2018, this single rate is 5.56%.

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 17

17

Market Based Liability

January 1, 2019

  • 1. Discount Rate for Liabilities

4.37%

  • 2. Liability (Accrued Basis)

$ 71,180,781

  • 3. Market Value of Assets

$ 43,059,069

  • 4. Funded Percentage

60.49%

  • The liability is calculated using the corporate bond yield curve at January 1, 2019. This

produces an effective interest rate of 4.37%.

  • The liability is calculated using the ‘Accrued benefit’ funding method (does not include

future service or pay increases).

  • Does not include cost of future benefit accruals.

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 18

18

Projection of Contributions, Benefit Payments, Obligations, and Market Value of Assets

  • Assumes Market Value of Assets earns 6.25% per annum, and payroll contributions are 10.5% of compensation.

Includes excess contributions of $1,120,000.

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
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SLIDE 19

19

Projection of Contributions, Benefit Payments, Obligations, and Market Value of Assets ($millions)

  • Assumes Market Value of Assets earns 6.25% per annum, and payroll contributions are 10.5% of compensation.

Includes excess contributions of $1,120,000.

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

Year Market Value Obligations Expected Contribution Benefit Payment Year Market Value Obligations Expected Contribution Benefit Payment 2019 43.06 63.40 1.53 4.96 2039 6.41 25.07 1.13 3.51 2020 42.18 62.23 1.46 4.72 2040 4.31 23.00 1.13 3.29 2021 41.43 61.23 1.42 5.13 2041 2.31 21.03 1.13 3.17 2022 40.17 59.75 1.37 5.01 2042 0.30 19.07 1.12 2.91 2023 38.90 58.30 1.34 5.18 2043 0.00 17.24 1.12 2.71 2024 37.34 56.58 1.30 5.04 2044 15.52 1.12 2.50 2025 35.79 54.90 1.27 5.28 2045 13.90 1.12 2.30 2026 33.87 52.87 1.25 5.01 2046 12.39 1.12 2.10 2027 32.08 50.99 1.24 5.10 2047 10.99 1.12 1.91 2028 30.07 48.90 1.22 4.96 2048 9.71 1.12 1.72 2029 28.06 46.82 1.20 4.91 2049 8.53 1.12 1.55 2030 25.96 44.67 1.19 4.70 2050 7.46 1.12 1.38 2031 23.93 42.60 1.18 4.71 2051 6.50 1.12 1.23 2032 21.75 40.39 1.17 4.60 2052 5.64 1.12 1.08 2033 19.54 38.16 1.16 4.44 2053 4.87 1.12 0.95 2034 17.34 35.95 1.15 4.27 2054 4.19 1.12 0.83 2035 15.17 33.78 1.15 4.11 2055 3.59 1.12 0.72 2036 13.03 31.64 1.14 4.06 2056 3.06 1.12 0.63 2037 10.79 29.41 1.14 3.90 2057 2.60 1.12 0.54 2038 8.58 27.21 1.13 3.71 2058 2.21 1.12 0.46

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SLIDE 20

Certification

20

  • 1. Actuarial Topics –

[company X] Pension Plan

  • 2. Legislative/Compliance

Topics

  • 3. Other Topics

This work product was prepared solely for the City of Fort Collins and the General Employees Retirement Committee, and may not be appropriate to use for other purposes. Milliman does not intend to benefit and assumes no duty

  • r liability to other parties who receive this work. Any recipient of this work product who desires professional guidance should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.

This presentation summarizes key preliminary results of an actuarial valuation of the City of Fort Collins General Employees’ Retirement Plan ( “the Plan”) as of January 1, 2019. The results are preliminary in nature and are subject to revision or correction prior to the release of the final report. Milliman advises any reader not to take any action in reliance on anything contained in this draft report. Except as otherwise indicated in this presentation, the explanatory notes contained in our January 1, 2018 actuarial valuation report, including statements of reliance and limitations on use, continue to apply. These projections are subject to the uncertainties of a regular actuarial valuation; the projections are inexact because they are based on assumptions that are themselves necessarily inexact, even though we consider them reasonable. Thus, the emerging results may vary from those presented to the extent actual experience differs from that projected by the actuarial assumptions. Milliman’s work is prepared solely for the use and benefit of the City of Fort Collins General Employees’ Retirement Plan (“Plan”). To the extent that Milliman’s work is not subject to disclosure under applicable public record laws, Milliman’s work may not be provided to third parties without Milliman’s prior written

  • consent. Milliman does not intend to benefit or create a legal duty to any third party recipient of its work product. Milliman’s consent to release its work product

to any third party may be conditioned on the third party signing a Release, subject to the following exception(s):

  • a. The Plan may provide a copy of Milliman’s work, in its entirety, to the Plan’s professional service advisors who are subject to a duty of confidentiality

and who agree to not use Milliman’s work for any purpose other than to benefit the Plan.

  • b. The Plan may provide a copy of Milliman’s work, in its entirety, to other government entities, as required by law.

No third party recipient of Milliman’s work product should rely upon Milliman’s work product. Such recipients should engage qualified professionals for advice appropriate to their own specific needs. The consultants who worked on this assignment are pension actuaries. Milliman’s advice is not intended to be a substitute for qualified legal or accounting counsel. On the basis of the foregoing, I hereby certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, this report is complete and accurate and has been prepared in accordance with generally recognized and accepted actuarial principles and practices. I am a member of the American Academy of Actuaries and meet the Qualification Standards to render the actuarial opinion contained herein.