Ionospheric Research Perspectives 1975-2015 John M. Goodman JMG - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ionospheric Research Perspectives 1975-2015

John M. Goodman JMG Associates May 12, 2015

Contents

• Some Introductory Remarks
• Where were we then? (circa 1970-1980)
• Where are we now? (2015)
• Challenges

NRL Randle Cliff Radar at CBD, Maryland (150-ft Diameter Dish Antenna)

IES History

• Motivations
• Early and Enduring Sponsors
• Notable Session Chairmen over the years
• Topics solicited
• Featured Speakers of IES

MOTIVATIONS for IES

• Jules Aarons and his “Radio Astronomical and Satellite

Studies of the Atmosphere”

• NATO-AGARD topical conferences
• Sought to emphasize DoD and civilian applications of

ionospheric science

• Sought to distinguish IES from IEEE, URSI, COSPAR,

ITU

• Attempted to couple ionospheric specialists with users

IES Number of Papers by Year

Year

• No. of Papers
• 1975

67

• 1978

88

• 1981

72

• 1984

61

• 1987

75

• 1990

61

• 1993

99

Year

• No. of Papers
• 1996

60

• 1999

90

• 2002

103

• 2005

117

• 2008

110

• 2011

137

• 2015

130+

IES & Sunspot Number

Keynote and Featured Speakers

• Dr. Herbert Friedman (NRL. 1975)
• Dr. Herbert Rabin (NRL, 1978)
• Dr. Robert Naka (Chief Scientist, USAF, 1978)
• Dr. Hans Mark (1981)
• Dr. J. N. Birch (1981)
• Prof. J.A. Van Allen (1981)
• Dr. Donald Latham (DoD, 1984)
• Dr. Owen K. Garriott (Scientist-Astronaut, 1984)
• Capt. David Hart (US Navy, 1987)
• Dr. Bruce Wald (NRL, 1987)
• Dr. Tom Quinn (DoD, 1990)
• Dr. Gerald Hawkins (1990)
• Prof. William Gordon (1993)
• Mr. John A. (Jack) Klobuchar (1996)
• Lt. General Emmit Paige Jr. (DoD, 1996)
• Dr. John V. Evans (COMSAT, 1999)
• Dr. Kenneth Davies (NOAA, 1999)
• Prof. Les Barclay (2002)
• Mr. Roger Easton (2002)
• Dr. Ernest Hildner (NOAA, 2005)
• Lt. Col Trey Cade (USAF/AFWA, 2005)
• Dr. Paul Cannon (2008)
• Prof. Lou Lanzerotti (NJIT, 2008)
• Dr. Paul Bernhardt (NRL, 2011)

Session Chairs 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015

• Dr. Jules Aarons
• Dr. David Anderson
• Dr. Paul Argo
• Mr. John Ballard
• Dr. Ted Beach
• Dr. O. de la Beaujardiere
• Maj. Paul Bellaire
• Dr. Paul Bernhardt

Mr Greg Bishop

• Dr. Dave Boteler
• Prof. Paul Cannon
• Dr. Alan Bourdillon
• Lt. Col Trey Cade
• Dr. Charles Carrano
• Dr. A. Cerruti
• Mr. Ray Conkright
• Dr. Robert Conley
• Dr. Anthea Coster

Major Mike Crawford

• Dr. Pat Crowley
• Mr. Don Danskin
• Dr. G. DeFranceschi
• Dr. Ken Davies
• Dr. Ken Diamond
• Ms. Patricia Doherty
• Dr. John V. Evans
• Dr. Ed Fremouw
• Dr. Paul Fougere
• Dr. Tim Fuller-Rowell
• Dr. Ivan Galkin
• Dr. Suman Ganguly

Session Chairs 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015

• Dr. Larry Gardner
• Dr. Larisa Goncharenko
• Dr. John Goodman
• Dr. Keith Groves
• Mr. George Hagn
• Mr. Jim Headrick
• Mr. Bill Heidig
• Mr. R.G. Joiner
• Dr. John Kelso
• Mr. John A. Klobuchar
• Mr. George Lane
• Dr. Robert McCoy
• Dr. Leo McNamara
• Dr. Sid Ossakow
• Mr. Ernie Peterkin
• Dr. Tom P. Quinn
• Dr. M.H. Reilly
• Prof. Bodo Reinisch
• Dr. Juergen Richter
• Dr. Chuck Rino
• Dr. Charles Rush
• Dr. Dave Sailors
• Dr. Ludgar Scherliess
• Mr. Kevin Scro
• Mr. James Secan
• Dr. Haim Soicher
• Prof. Paul Song
• Mr. Don Spector
• Dr. Iwona Stanislawski
• Dr. Al Rosen
• Mr. Joe Thomason
• Dr. G. W. Ullrick
• Mr. John Wang
• Dr. W. Wasylkiwskyj

Jules Aarons

• An inspirational Factor

for IES

• Radio Astronomical &

Satellite Studies of the Atmosphere

• NATO-AGARD

Conferences

John A. “Jack” Klobuchar

• AF Co-Chairman for

IES

• Noted TEC

Investigator

• 1975 “1st Order

Worldwide Time Delay Algorithm”

• ION Fellow

Professor James Van Allen

• Radiation Belts

Professor William Gordon

• Incoherent Scatter

Radar

• Arecibo

• Dr. Kenneth Davies
• Several Noteworthy

Books

• Monograph 80

• Dr. Owen K. Garriott
• Book
• Scientist Astronaut

• Dr. John V. Evans
• Book
• Thomson Scatter Radar

at Millstone Hill

• Jodrell Bank radar

studies

• Cis-lunar ionosphere

studies

• COMSAT

• Prof. Paul Cannon
• Ionospheric studies
• Radio Systems
• Communications
• URSI

Professor Les Barclay

• HF Propagation Specialist
• CCIR/ITU contributions
• Numerous Publications
• Books

Roger Easton

• Father of GPS
• Space Surveillance

System

• Timing & Navigation

• Dr. Herbert Friedman
• Noted Astrophysicist
• Early rocket studies
• X-ray studies of lower

ionosphere

Professor Louis Lanzerotti

• Plasma physics
• Telecommunications
• Space Weather

Quarterly -Editor

• Dr. Ernie Hildner
• Director, NOAA-SEC
• Forecasting
• Space Weather

• Dr. Paul Bernhardt
• Ionospheric

Modification

• Satellite & Terrestrial

studies

Authorship Continuity 1975 and 2015

• Herbert Carlson
• Dennis Knepp
• Charles Rino

Technical Sessions: IES1975

• Scintillation & Irregularities (3 sessions)
• Heating Effects
• TEC Modeling
• NAVSTAR/GPS
• In-Situ Probes

Technical Sessions: IES1978

• Scintillation (2 Sessions)
• Radio Propagation (ELF-HF)
• Spacecraft Charging
• Ionospheric Forecasting
• Ionospheric Modification
• Ionospheric Effects: Ranging and Navigation

Technical Sessions: IES1981

• Ionospheric Modification (2 Sessions)
• Ionospheric and Scintillation Modeling
• Auroral & Equatorial Scintillation
• HF Propagation
• Remote Sensing
• Ionospheric Modification
• Ionospheric Effects: Ranging and Navigation

Technical Sessions: IES1984

• Adaptive HF Systems & Channel Assessment
• HF Probing & Performance Analysis
• Transionospheric Propagation
• Ionospheric Predictions & Modeling
• LF Propagation
• Artificial Modification
• Ionospheric Diagnostic Technology

Technical Sessions: IES1987

• Wideband HF Channels
• High Frequency Measurements
• HF Modeling
• Longwave Propagation Modeling
• Transionospheric Propagation & TEC
• Transionospheric Propagation & Scintillation
• Ionospheric Modification
• High Latitude Ionospheric Interactions
• Spacecraft Glow, Related Phenomena and Measurements

Technical Sessions: IES1990

• High Latitude Phenomena
• Scintillation Effects
• HF Radio Effects
• Radar System Effects
• Meteor Burst & Miscellaneous Systems
• TEC Modeling
• TEC and GPS
• Diagnostics: Sounders, Probes, and Radars
• Longwave Systems
• Modification

Technical Sessions: IES1993

• OTH Radar
• Ionospheric Tomography and Radar Applications
• Direction Finding Systems and Applications
• Meteor Burst Communications
• Transionospheric Propagation, Scintillation, TEC, etc.
• HF Propagation & Modeling
• Ionospheric Sounding & Probes
• High Latitude Phenomena
• Longwave Systems & Effects
• Radio Noise Modeling
• Ionospheric Heating and Modification

Technical Sessions: IES1996

• Ionospheric Tomography (3 sessions)
• OTH Radar
• HF Communication & Noise
• Ionospheric Utilities, Resources, & Forecasting
• Ionospheric Mapping & Sounding
• Ionospheric Modeling
• Ionospheric Scintillation & Spread-F
• Ionospheric Measurements (2 sessions)
• Propagation Experiments & Studies
• Total Electron Content & GPS Studies (3 sessions)

Technical Sessions: IES1999

• Space Weather
• Computerized Ionospheric Tomography
• Ionospheric Scintillation
• Sounder Methods & Measurements
• TEC Studies
• Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on GPS: WAAS
• Ionospheric Modeling
• Ionospheric Measurements & Campaigns
• HF Propagation & Communication
• Longwave Measurements & Effects
• Radar and Radio Propagation Effects
• New Methods & Algorithms

Technical Sessions: IES2002

• Space Weather
• Ionospheric Models & Data Assimilation (2 Sessions)
• Satellite Navigation Systems & WAAS
• HF Propagation & Systems
• Advanced Ionospheric Sounding
• Total Electron Content (2 Sessions)
• Radiowave Scintillation (2 Sessions)
• Lower Ionosphere
• Tomography & Optical Measurements
• Panel on Ionospheric Modeling

Technical Sessions: IES2005

• Solar Flares & Storms (3 sessions)
• Ionospheric Radio Propagation
• HF Propagation & Systems (2 Sessions)
• HF Sounder Technology
• Ionospheric Effects on Space-Based Augmentation (2 Sessions)
• Limb Scanning Technology
• Miscellaneous GPS studies
• TEC
• Ionospheric Tomography
• Ionospheric Specification, Data Assimilation & Forecasting
• Scintillation (2 Sessions + C/NOFS session)
• General System Effects

Technical Sessions: IES2008

• Radio Burst & Solar Flare Effects
• Lower Ionospheric Effects
• Arctic Ionosphere
• Space Weather Effects on Communication & Navigation
• Ionospheric Effects on Aviation Systems
• Ionospheric Phenomena
• GPS Techniques and Applications
• Radio Propagation and HF Systems (2 Sessions)
• Modeling & Forecasting (2 Sessions)
• Sounder Methods & Measurements (2 Sessions)
• Irregularities & Scintillation
• Sensors & Measurement Techniques (3 Sessions)

IES2011 Topics

• Lower Atmosphere & Ionosphere
• Ionospheric Effects on Navigation
• GPS and TEC
• C/NOFS
• Sounder Methods & Measurements (3

Sessions)

• HF Radio & Communication Systems
• Radio Diagnostics
• Radar Applications
• Tomography
• Rocket Exhaust Effects & High Power

Radio Modification

• Space Weather
• Equatorial Ionosphere (2 Sessions)
• Geomagnetic Storm Effects
• Modeling & Simulation (2 Sessions)
• Scintillation (2 Sessions)
• Radio Propagation
• SAR and Related Techniques

Technical sessions: IES2015

• HF-TIDs
• Scintillation & Irregularities
• Ionospheric Modification
• Storms & Anomalous Conditions
• Ionosphere & Space Weather Models
• GPS/GNSS
• Ionospheric Studies
• Mission & Data Services
• Natural Hazards

Consistent Themes

• Understanding the earth-space path
• Understanding of the HF skywave path
• Ionospheric modification
• Solar-Terrestrial and Space Weather relationships
• Ionospheric Modeling
• Ionospheric remote sensing
• Other less consistent themes

Some Ionospheric phenomena we don’t know very well

• Inhomogeneities
• TIDs
• Ionospheric Storm

Scenario-Dependent Situations

CONSEQUENCES

• Search for credible methods to specify

“truth”

• Update climatology?
• Insertion of more physics?
• Both?
• Situation has led variety of update schema

and data assimilation techniques.

Where do we go from here?

Too much emphasis on development of models without experimental validation ?

• Calculation, in general, is NOT an

experiment.

Conclusions

• Consistent progress in understanding of the

ionosphere has been made in the last half century

• Better Diagnostics
• Improved Computational Tools
• Improved awareness of importance to Society
• IES conferences have mirrored changes

BACKUP

Where are we now?

• Ionospheric Propagation Studies & Modeling
• Scintillation (C/NOFS)
• TEC

Where were we then?

• Remote Sensing Technologies
• VIS and OIS Sounding, Topside Sounding, OTHR
• Rocket Probes
• In-Situ plasma measurements
• Incoherent Scatter Radar (Thomson Scatter)
• DoD and NASA studies Space Program assets

Where are we now?

• Remote Sensing Technologies
• VIS and OIS Sounding
• Global quasi-real-time
• ISR, EISCAT,
• SuperDARN,
• OTHR
• TIDBIT
• Occultation
• Tomography
• airglow

Where were we then?

• Ionospheric Modification
• Heating (HF heaters and Luxembourg effect)
• Chemical Releases (i.e., actual modification and diagnostic)
• Man-Made
• chemical reagents from exhaust such as Skylab
• nuclear effects (principally HANE)]

Where are we now?

• Ionospheric Modeling
• Continuing editions of IRI
• Assimilative models (GAIM, etc.)

Where were we then?

• Ionospheric Propagation Studies & Modeling
• Scintillation (Radio Star, SATCOM)
• TEC, Dispersive & Differential Doppler

Where were we then?

• Ionospheric Modeling
• Penn State Mark 1, Appleton Lab, CCIR Models  ITU-R Models
• AF4D, AMBCOM
• HFMUFES RADARC  ICEPACIONCAPVOACA

Where do we go from here?

Methodology

• Participate in Interdisciplinary Experiments. Generally a good

thing but there are budgets to consider

• Incorporate known physics without sacrificing empirical results

and insight

• Develop models of behavior (leading to forecasting, prediction,

and simulation)

• Communicate with ultimate Users of Basic & Exploratory

Research (collaboration should be considered)

• Conduct Challenge Workshops
• Publish results & submit to IES and other topical and/or

general conferences (AGU, URSI, IEEE, etc)

Where are we now?

• Ionospheric Modification
• Heating (HF heaters)
• Chemical Releases and Man-Made (i.e., chemical reagents from

exhaust, and nuclear effects)

Where were we then?

• Systems for Navigation and Timing
• Loran
• Transit
• Navy Timation,
• GPS Constellation
• Communication System Studies
• Satellites (VHF, UHF, SHF)
• HF radio (emergent adaptive HF systems)

Where are we now?

• System Studies
• Communication
• Surveillance
• Radar (e.g., OTHR)
• HFDF (i.e., HFGeo)
• Navigation (GNSS)
• GPS and augmentation system
• GLONASS
• European system