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Investor Presentation July 2014 Forward looking statements Matters - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor Presentation July 2014 Forward looking statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.


  1. Investor Presentation July 2014

  2. Forward looking statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historical facts. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital expenditures , expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters, are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel operating expenses when the are delivered to us, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements. 1

  3. Euronav at a glance Fleet ● Large in-the-water crude oil tanker operator (55 modern tankers, $1.6Bn+ Market Cap) ● Vertically integrated operator with no related party transactions, no hidden fees or commissions FSO ● More than 70% of fleet exposed to the spot market allowing for strong cash generation potential 2 ● Strong relationships with high quality charterers Suezmax VLCC 23 29 ● Management (75 years of combined tanker shipping experience) focus on one company ULCC 1 ● Pro forma fleet mix 29 VLCC, 23 Suezmax, 1 ULCC, 2 FSOs ● Current industry themes – Demand – Increased Ton-Miles 55 vessels Supply – Lowest order book since 2003 13.9mm dwt Cyclical low in rates and asset values 6.7 year avg. age Proven growth track record with strong access to capital Bank debt Convertible Bond issuance Equity raised bond issuance issuance 2014 2003 55 vessels 10 vessels $4,928 M $275 M $235 M $625 M 3.0 mm dwt 13.9mm dwt One of the largest independent owners & operators of crude oil tankers in the world Note: Market data as of Sept 4 2014 2

  4. Agenda ● Industry overview ● Company overview ● Financial overview ● Conclusion 3

  5. Industry overview

  6. A. Demand shifting to non-OECD Global oil demand is growing … … and increasingly moving to non-OECD countries (mb/day) (mb/day) (mb/day) 25.0 120.0 60.0 55.0 100.0 20.0 50.0 80.0 15.0 45.0 OECD demand 60.0 Non-OECD demand 40.0 overtaking OECD 10.0 demand 40.0 35.0 5.0 20.0 30.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 Non-OECD demand 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20.0 Total World (rhs) United States China India European Union 2000 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: BP historical figures, IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 forecast figures Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Future VLCC demand by region over the next two years (2014E-2016E) 92 100 10 75 17 Net estimated Number of vessels 50 demand for VLCCs 65 next two years ~ 53 25 0 (20) (7) (25) (12) (50) (39) US & Canada Europe, Lat Amer & Africa Japan China India SE Asia Net estimated additional demand ~ 53 VLCCs (92-39) by 2016 compared to net expected fleet growth of 4 vessels 5

  7. B. Far East oil imports driving positive ton-mile demand growth Crude traffic generally moving East Miles moved per ton transported to China (a) Europe Arabian Gulf 5,500 TM US Gulf Mid East Asia Mid East-Europe West Africa 9,650 TM South America 11,500 TM Refinery expansion in Middle East and Asia Ton-mile demand growth, 2009 to 2013 3,500 10,000 3,040 9,321 3,000 9,159 8,908 Capacity additions (mbd) 8,803 9,000 8,512 2,500 Billions of ton-mile 8,000 2,000 1,500 7,000 1,182 907 1,000 6,000 551 410 400 500 2014 2015 2016 + 2014 2015 2016+ 5,000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia Pacific Middle East (a) Average ton-miles based on 2013 tons transported to China Source: Wood-Mackenzie Source: Drewry, Clarksons 6

  8. B. U.S. shale oil and potential U.S export  A positive for tankers Rising US production reducing crude imports and US crude export applications and approvals (to 25 th spurring exports February 2014 plus estimate) 14.0 Crude supply sources (mb/d) 140 12.0 120 10.0 No of applications 100 8.0 80 6.0 60 4.0 40 2.0 20 0.0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Applications Approvals Approvals to Canada Approvals ex-Canada Estimates Domestic production Gross imports Exports …and is exporting already – could be 1m bpd by end USA producing more and more…. of 2014 US oil imports 3000 2500 ‘000 barrels per day Arabian Gulf 2000 1500 Africa 1000 500 . 0 1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: EIA 7

  9. B. Overall impact is more ton miles Indirect benefit – LR2/Aframax will export condensate but positive knock on effect for VLCC, Suezmax • Heavy crude imports remain intact – Middle East to USA Heavy crude unchanged since 2005 & to remain • Displacement drives further increase in ton miles – Latam/WAF to USA will now go Latam/WAF to Far East • LATAM to USA 2,500 miles & WAF to USA 5,000 miles LATAM to China 11,500 miles & WAF to China 9,650 miles 8

  10. C. Global VLCC and Suezmax fleet supply dynamics VLCC Suezmax 50 10% 80 World Fleet 1 Jan 2014 = 615 Vessels 8% World Fleet 1 Jan 2014 = 471 Vessels 7% 40 60 8% 6% 30 40 5% 6% 45 45 62 42 20 39 54 53 49 4% No. of vessels 20 35 27 31 14 10 4% 3% 15 12 6 6 0 7 -3 4 2% 0 -16 -21 -21 -22 -5 -24 -18 2% -7 -7 -29 -11 -12 1% -15 -20 -6 -17 -10 -47 -20 0% 0% -40 -20 (1%) 24 7 38 30 10 -1 -9 13 Net change 30 22 35 25 20 -1 -4 -2 -30 -2% -60 (2%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Delivered Forecast Deliveries Scrapped/Removed Removals Scenario % Fleet Growth (RH AXIS) Note: August 2014 Source: Clarksons Orderbook for crude tankers is near historic lows 9

  11. What does A-B-C mean? Two stage rocket – super cycle coming 80 CYCLICAL RECOVERY – 2014 – 2016 60 Stage Negative fleet growth for first time since 2003 40 No. of vessels 62 53 54 1 49 drives restricted supply 20 35 31 14 12 6 0 -3 -16 -21 -21 Non-OECD demand drives 2-3m bpd growth -22 -24 -18 -29 -20 -47 -40 STRUCTURAL EXPANSION 2016 ++ -60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Stage Crude routes restructured via - Refinery expansion M East & China 2 - Asian demand and US not importing Structural growth >2016 could mean a further estimated 270 VLCCs are required • M East refinery expansion – hard TOTAL SHIFT LIKELY SHIFT Asian refiners NOT getting M East crude ~ 5mbpd plans to expand capacity by 4m ~5-8m bpd Euro refiners not buying NSea/WAF crude ~ 2-3 mbpd bpd by 2018 means a decrease from M East to Additional Atlantic crude supply (WAF/Brazil) ~ 2mbpd in exports from Middle East Atlantic • Atlantic Supply – 3-5m bpd – SENSITIVITIES Russian, US, North Sea, WAF, 1m bpd supplied to Asia from WAF instead of Middle East ~ 17 VLCC Brazil Oil into Atlantic as US not 1m bpd additional supplied to Asia from WAF ~ 40 VLCC importing 1m bpd additional supplied to Asia from Carib ~ 45 VLCC • Asian Demand – continues – end user demand & refinery CONCLUSIONS (spread over 3 scenarios) expansion 5m bpd ~ 170 VLCC 8m bpd ~ 270 VLCC 10

  12. D. Freight – High volatility & price inelasticity Daily average tankers freight rate over 10 years 250000 200000 150000 Average TCE 2004-2008 = $71,000 per day USD/DAY 100000 50000 Notional Break Even 0 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08 jul/08 jan/09 jul/09 jan/10 jul/10 jan/11 jul/11 jan/12 jul/12 jan/13 jul/13 jan/14 -50000 Average VLCC 2000-built Average VLCC 2010-built Average Suezmax 2000-built Average Suezmax 2010-built Source: Clarksons 11

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