Investor Presentation
June 2019
Investor Presentation June 2019 Notices Forward-Looking Statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation June 2019 Notices Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. This presentation contains forward-looking statements and
June 2019
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Notices
expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
information.
projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
the financial information for LTM Q1 19 include six additional fiscal days as compared to the year ended December 31, 2018, which may impact the comparability between periods.
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Notices
costs and interest income, income taxes, depreciation and amortization and other unusual or non-recurring items. The Company believes that Adjusted EBITDA can be useful for, and is frequently used by, securities analysts, investors and other interested parties to perform comparisons
EBITDA is useful because it excludes the effect of:
– depreciation, which represents non-cash charges to earnings. Companies differ in the age and method of acquisition of productive assets, and thus the relative costs of those assets, as well as in the depreciation method (straight-line, accelerated, units of production), which can result in considerable variability in depreciation expense between companies; – interest, which is significantly affected by external factors, including interest rates and inflation rates. Interest expense is dependent on the capital structure and credit rating of a company, while debt levels, credit ratings and, therefore, the impact of interest expense on earnings vary in significance between companies; and – income tax expense. The tax positions of individual companies can vary because of their differing abilities to take advantage of tax benefits and the differing jurisdictions in which they transact business, with the result that their effective tax rates and tax expense can vary considerably.
measure as compared to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measure. For instance, Adjusted EBITDA does not:
– include interest expense, and because the Company has borrowed money to finance its operations, interest expense is a necessary element of its cash requirements and costs and ability to generate revenue; – include depreciation expense, and because the assets being depreciated will often have to be replaced in the future, Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect any cash requirements for such replacements; or – include tax expense, and because the payment of taxes is part of the Company’s operations, tax expense is a necessary element of the Company’s cash requirements and costs and ability to generate revenue.
in accordance with IFRS as an indication of the Company’s operating performance. In addition, other companies in its industry or across different industries may calculate Adjusted EBITDA differently than the Company does, limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure.
important IFRS measures allow management to, among other things, compare the Company’s operations with competitors on a consistent basis and understand the revenues and expenses matched to each other for the applicable reporting period. The Company believes that the use of these IFRS measures, supplemented by the use of Adjusted EBITDA, allows the Company to have a greater understanding of its performance and allows it to adapt to changing trends and business opportunities.
described above. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to the nearest comparable IFRS measure can be found in the appendix to this presentation.
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Peter Wijnbergen President & Chief Executive Officer Robin Lampard Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
– Stated OSB capacity of 9.0 Bsf-3/8”(1) – Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF)
– Approximately 2,700 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe
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Company Overview
North America Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Particleboard Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF) Furniture
Panel Capacity by Region(1)
(1) Based on stated annual capacity as of December 31, 2018.
Europe 21% Canada 37% US 42%
9.9 Bsf-3/8"(1)
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Company Overview
Top 10 Global OSB Producers Enterprise Value
Source: Company filings and Bloomberg. Enterprise values as of June 14, 2019. * Excluding OSB siding capacity
*
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Norbord Louisiana-Pacific Kronospan Georgia-Pacific Weyerhaeuser Huber Tolko KronoSwiss Martco Egger
OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8") $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500
West Fraser Louisiana-Pacific Norbord Canfor Corp. Interfor Western Forest Products
Enterprise Value ($US millions)
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Company Overview
North American OSB Industry (1) European OSB Industry (1)
* Excluding OSB siding capacity.
*
29%
Louisiana- Pacific 18%* Georgia- Pacific 15% Weyer- haeuser 11% Tolko 8% Huber 8% Martco 6% Other 5% Industry Capacity 27 Bsf-3/8" Kronospan 39% SwissKrono 17% 10% Egger 8% Sonae- Arauco 4% Smartply 4% Others 17% Industry Capacity 12 Bsf-3/8"
Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings—Installed Capacity. (1) As of April 6, 2019.
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Company Overview
OSB – 90% of Capacity
and related value-added products
Particleboard – 6% of Capacity
MDF – 4% of Capacity
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Company Overview
Wall Sheathing Webstock Flooring Rimboard Door Header Roof Window Header Garage Door Header
– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost
– OSB represents 69% of total North American structural panel production – OSB represents 45% of total European structural panel production
Source: APA, January 2019
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Company Overview
$100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD-2019 Annual Average North Central OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16"
15-year average: $253
Source: Random Lengths (1) Twenty-four weeks ended June 14, 2019. We believe that the average North Central benchmark OSB prices presented above, even when unaccompanied by estimated earnings data that is not yet available, is important to an investor’s understanding of our performance to date during the second quarter of 2019. Our results remain subject to the completion of the second quarter of 2019 on July 6, 2019. See “Forward-Looking Information.” (1)
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Credit Highlights
631 495 247 42
107 45 188 287 290 307 48
5 58 13 106 145 921 802 295 19
5 165 58 294 432 115 125 385 672 724 596
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1/19 LTM Norbord Combined Ainsworth Norbord (excluding Ainsworth)
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Credit Highlights North Central Avg. Benchmark OSB Price $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $269 $353 $351 $309 US Housing Starts (000s) 1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,112 1,174 1,202 1,250 1,222
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
15-year average: $330 million
(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate. (2) Assumes operation at LTM production levels as of April 6, 2019.
Norbord sensitivity to realized North American OSB price changes: +$10/Msf 7/16” = +$53 million Adjusted EBITDA(2)
(1)
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)
Credit Highlights
U.S. Housing Starts and Underlying Demand North American OSB Demand and Capacity
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F OSB demand/capacity (%) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F US Housing Starts (mm) US Housing Starts Underlying Demand
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Credit Highlights
North America Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Particleboard Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF) Furniture 14 15 16 16 17 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12 13 11 10 9 8
Mill Location Capacity (MMsf-3/8")
British Columbia 440
Alberta 830
Alberta 860
Ontario 510
Minnesota 550
Quebec 500
Quebec 550
South Carolina 650
Georgia 1,040
Alabama 500
Mississippi 450
Texas 500
Texas 420 Total North America 7,800
Scotland 720
Belgium 450 Total Europe OSB 1,170 Total OSB 8,970
405
160 Total Particleboard 565
380 Total MDF 380 Total Panel 9,915
(1) (1) Production of OSB at Chambord indefinitely curtailed. In addition, the Company expects to indefinitely curtail production of OSB in 100 Mile House, British Columbia, starting in August 2019.
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Credit Highlights
Q1/19 LTM North American Shipments
6.5 Bsf-3/8”
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Credit Highlights
Q1/19 LTM Sales by Geography
(1) Exports to Asia are handled by Interex and sales are reported in the North American geographic segment. (2) Represents Norbord’s North American non-OSB business (fully divested in 2010).
– North American industrial products – European panels – Asia-focused exports(1)
North American-based competitors
cycles
(1)
$2.3 billion Sales
58% 22% 20% 63% 4% 28% 5%
Norbord shipments – 5.1 Bsf-3/8” 2004 1.96M US Housing Starts 2018 1.25M US Housing Starts Norbord shipments – 8.3 Bsf-3/8”
NA Specialty
Diversifying Towards Stable Margin End Uses NA Commodity & VAP Europe Other (2)
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capex Inverness Expansion
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Credit Highlights
Capex Investment (US$ millions)
(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.
Minimum Maintenance $25 million
(1)
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Credit Highlights
Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions)
(1) $245 million of committed revolving bank lines less $8 million outstanding letters of credit and guarantees drawn at quarter-end. (2) A/R Securitization program fully drawn at Q1 2019 to fund seasonal investment in operating working capital.
Focused Financial Management Robust Asset Coverage (As of 4/6/2019) Manageable Debt Maturities (US$ millions)
Q1 2019 Cash $ 2 Revolving Bank Lines(1) 237 A/R Securitization(2)
$ 239
(2)
Cash $2 Restricted Cash
175 Inventory 257 Prepaids 10 PP&E 1,425 Total Tangible Assets $1,869 Senior Notes $555 Drawings under committed credit lines 80 Coverage Ratio 2.9x
$240 $315 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
6.250% Senior Notes 5.375% Senior Notes
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Credit Highlights
Name Title Years at Company Past Experience Peter Wijnbergen President & CEO 32 ▪ Previously held senior sales, strategic planning and
Robin Lampard SVP & CFO 23 ▪ Previously held senior finance positions at Norbord including Treasurer Kevin Burke SVP, North American Operations 18 ▪ Previously held senior operations positions at Norbord in both Europe and North America Alan McMeekin SVP, Europe 10 ▪ Previously VP of Finance and Operations, Europe at Norbord Nigel Banks SVP, Corporate Services 9 ▪ Previously VP, Human Resources of LifeLabs Mark Dubois-Phillips SVP, Sales, Marketing & Logistics 1 ▪ Over 20 years of experience in the forest products industry in North America and Asia
conditions
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Financial Overview
(1) Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and other unusual or non-recurring items. (2) Liquidity is comprised of unused amounts under the revolving bank lines and accounts receivable securitization program and cash and cash equivalents.
(1) (2)
(US$ millions) Year Ended December 31, LTM 2016A 2017A 2018A Q1 19A Sales North America $1,361 $1,747 $1,907 $1,789 Europe 405 430 517 535 Total Sales $1,766 $2,177 $2,424 $2,324 Adjusted EBITDA North America $352 $638 $652 $519 Europe 41 41 86 89 Corporate & Other (8) (7) (14) (12) Total Adjusted EBITDA $385 $672 $724 $596 Margin % 21.8% 30.9% 29.9% 25.6% Earnings $183 $436 $371 $277 Liquidity $506 $592 $490 $239 Shipments (MMsf 3/8") North America 5,888 6,066 6,484 6,532 Europe 1,779 1,867 1,825 1,885 Total Shipments 7,667 7,933 8,309 8,417 Indicative Average OSB Price North Central ($/Msf–7/16") $269 $353 $351 $309 South East ($/Msf–7/16") 245 330 315 280 Western Canada ($/Msf–7/16") 234 326 307 255 Europe (€/m3) 233 239 294 297
29 16 25 23 24 43 15 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Financial Overview
(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates. (2) The benefits from richer product mix and improved productivity were offset by higher maintenance-related costs. In addition, 2018 MIP was negatively impacted by higher raw material usages and costs associated with executing on strategic capital and sales growth initiatives. Further, the excellent ramp up of the Huguley, Alabama and Inverness, Scotland mills were excluded from 2018 MIP calculation. (3) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.
(2)
Margin Improvement Program Gains (US$ in millions) “In Control of Our Controllables”
– Increased productivity – Reduced overhead costs – Reduced raw material usage – Improved product mix
(1)
(3) (2)
0x 3x 6x 9x 12x $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
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Financial Overview
Quarterly
(in US$ millions) Net Debt to LTM Adj. EBITDA
0.9x
(1) Net debt for financial covenant purposes is the principal amount of long-term debt, including the current portion, bank advances and drawings under the bank lines (including letters of credit and guarantees), other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes, less cash and cash equivalents.
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Appendix
(US$ millions) Year Ended December 31, LTM 2016A 2017A 2018A Q1 19A Earnings (loss) $183 $436 $371 $277 Add: Finance costs 52 32 37 40 Less: Interest income
(5) Add: Depreciation and amortization 94 107 134 139 Add: Income tax (recovery) expense 61 81 100 59 Add: Impairment of assets
80 Add: Loss on disposal of assets
2 2 Add: Stock-based compensation and related costs 2 3 4 4 Add: Pre-operating costs related to Inverness project
(16)
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1
$385 $672 $724 $596
(1) Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and other unusual or non-recurring items.
(1)