Investor Presentation
May 15, 2015
Investor Presentation May 15, 2015 Information Related to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation May 15, 2015 Information Related to Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward - looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 19 95. These include
May 15, 2015
1
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements regarding future results or expectations about our investments, returns on invested capital, investment strategy, taxes, portfolio, earnings, book value, core income, growth in capital, agency MBS spreads, prepayments, hedging instruments, duration, credit performance of private-label MBS, cash flow and benefit of deferred tax asset value. Forward-looking statements can be identified by forward-looking language, including words such as “believes,” “anticipates,” “views,” “expects,” “estimates,” “intends,” “may,” “plans,” “projects,” “potential,” “prospective,” “will” and similar expressions, or the negative of these words. Such forward-looking statements are based on facts and conditions as they exist at the time such statements are made. Forward-looking statements are also based on predictions as to future facts and conditions, the accurate prediction of which may be difficult and involve the assessment of events beyond our control. Forward-looking statements are further based on various operating and return assumptions. Caution must be exercised in relying on forward- looking statements. Due to known and unknown risks, actual results may differ materially from expectations or projections. You should carefully consider these risks when you make a decision concerning an investment in our common stock or senior notes, along with the following factors, among others, that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statements: availability of, and our ability to deploy, capital; growing our business primarily through a strategy focused on acquiring primarily private-label mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) and agency-backed MBS; yields on MBS; our ability to successfully implement our hedging strategy; our ability to realize reflation on our private-label MBS; our ability to effectively migrate capital invested in private-label MBS to agency-backed MBS; the credit performance of our private-label MBS; our ability to potentially realize a higher return on capital reallocated to agency-backed MBS; current conditions and adverse developments in the residential mortgage market and the overall economy; potential risk attributable to our mortgage-related portfolios; impacts of regulatory changes, including actions taken by the SEC, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury and changes affecting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; overall interest rate environment and changes in interest rates, interest rate spreads, the yield curve and prepayment rates; changes in anticipated earnings and returns; the amount and growth in our cash earnings and distributable income; growth in our book value per share; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our use of leverage and dependence on repurchase agreements and other short-term borrowings to finance our mortgage-related holdings; the loss of our exclusion from the definition of “investment company” under the Investment Company Act of 1940; our ability to forecast our tax attributes and protect and use our net operating loss carry-forwards and net capital loss carry-forwards to offset future taxable income and gains; changes in our business, acquisition, leverage, asset allocation, operational, hedging and financing strategies and policies; our ability and willingness to make future dividends; changes in, and our ability to remain in compliance with, law, regulations or governmental policies affecting our business; and the factors described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and
statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral, relating to matters discussed in this presentation, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
2
(1) The NCL carry-forwards are available to offset taxable capital gains through 2019, and the NOL carry-forwards will begin to expire in 2027.
3
(1) Total Return is stock price appreciation (or depreciation) plus reinvested dividends. Source: Bloomberg
4
5
(1) Agency MBS allocated capital is composed of MBS and its related interest receivable, repo, derivative instruments, deposits, net receivable or payable for unsettled securities and cash. Private-label MBS allocated capital is composed of MBS and its related repo.
6
(1) As of 3/31/15.
Private-Label MBS Portfolio Statistics Face Value $321M Weighted Average Cost/Mark 54% / 75% Purchase Discount $117M Average Loan Size $647,876 Coupon 2.7% Orig FICO 722 Orig LTV 67% WALA 104 Credit Enhancement 0.2% 60+ Delinquency 14% 3 month Severity 42% 3 month CPR 11% as of 3/31/15
7
Top 5 Largest MSAs(1):
5.0% HPA nationwide in February 2015 year-over-year 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year home price
Housing supply remains limited and demand remains
(1) Source: Bloomberg (2) Source: The Standard & Poor's Case–Shiller Home Price Indices
8
9
Growing core operating income driven by a larger investment portfolio
Strong growth in earnings potential driven by:
(1) Core expense is calculated as expenses determined in accordance with GAAP less stock compensation and legacy litigation expenses. (2) Investable capital is composed of equity plus long-term debt less deferred tax assets, net.
10
(1) Based on the Company’s Class A common stock closing price on the NYSE of $21.37 on 5/5/2015. (2) The annual dividend rate presented is calculated by annualizing the 1st quarter of 2015 dividend payment of $0.875 per share of Class A common stock. The Company maintains a variable dividend policy and the Board of Directors, in its sole discretion, approves the payment of dividends. Actual dividends in the future may differ materially from historical practice and from the annualized dividend rate presented. (3) The Company's dividends are eligible for the 23.8% federal income tax rate on qualified dividend income, whereas dividends paid by REITs are generally subject to tax at ordinary income rates (currently at a maximum marginal federal rate of 43.4%). To provide the same after-tax return to a shareholder eligible for the 23.8% rate on qualified dividend income and
11
12
13
(Dollars in thousands) ASSETS March 31, 2015 December 31, 2014 Cash and cash equivalents 15,315 $ 33,832 $ Receivables Interest 11,269 10,701 Sold securities receivable 78,915
528 1,138 Mortgage-backed securities, at fair value Available-for-sale 241,045 267,477 Trading 3,687,736 3,414,300 Other investments 1,819 1,837 Derivative assets, at fair value 1,508 1,267 Deferred tax assets, net 113,276 122,365 Deposits 213,037 160,427 Prepaid expenses and other assets 2,169 1,145 Total assets 4,366,617 $ 4,014,489 $ LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Liabilities: Repurchase agreements 3,371,690 $ 3,179,775 $ Interest payable 1,162 1,106 Accrued compensation and benefits 1,562 6,067 Dividend payable 21,574 20,195 Derivative liabilities, at fair value 175,793 124,308 Purchased securities payable 148,252
751 1,006 Long-term debt 75,300 40,000 Total liabilities 3,796,084 3,372,457 Equity 570,533 642,032 Total liabilities and equity 4,366,617 $ 4,014,489 $
14
(in thousands, except per share amounts) First Quarter Fourth Quarter First Quarter 2015 2014 2014 Interest income : Interest income on trading MBS 31,914 $ 31,296 $ 16,708 $ Interest income on available-for-sale MBS 5,049 5,019 7,158 Other 1 1 1 Total interest income 36,964 36,316 23,867 Interest expense: Interest on short-term debt 3,080 2,901 1,734 Interest on long-term debt 648 553 551 Total interest expense 3,728 3,454 2,285 Net interest income 33,236 32,862 21,582 Other loss, net (59,371) (33,697) (5,914) Operating income (loss) (26,135) (835) 15,668 Other expenses: Compensation and benefits 2,412 3,326 2,961 Other expenses 896 1,154 1,194 Total other expenses 3,308 4,480 4,155 Income (loss) before income taxes (29,443) (5,315) 11,513 Income tax provision 12,742 27,450 4,480 Net income (loss) (42,185) (32,765) 7,033 Other comprehensive income (loss): Unrealized gains (losses) on available-for-sale MBS, net of tax (4,493) (1,899) 974 Reclassification related to sales of available-for-sale MBS, net of tax (3,362) (2,919) (3,078) Comprehensive income (loss) (50,040) $ (37,583) $ 4,929 $ Basic earnings (loss) per share (1.84) $ (1.43) $ 0.42 $ Diluted earnings (loss) per share (1.84) $ (1.41) $ 0.41 $ Weighted average shares outstanding - basic 22,973 22,973 16,808 Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted 22,973 23,316 17,081
15
(1)
(1) Core operating income is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP core operating income measurement is used by management to analyze and assess the Company’s operating results
impact of these non-core items and non-cash expenses on our performance and provides additional clarity around our earnings capacity and trends. A limitation of utilizing this non-GAAP measure is that the GAAP accounting effects of these events do in fact reflect the underlying financial results of our business and these effects should not be ignored in evaluating and analyzing our financial results. Therefore, the Company believes net income on a GAAP basis and core operating income on a non-GAAP basis should be considered together.
16
Disclaimer: The numbers contained in the examples above are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect Arlington Asset’s projections or forecasts. Any assumptions and estimates used may not be accurate and cannot be relied upon. Arlington Asset’s ROE for any given period may differ materially from these examples. The foregoing is not an example of, and does not represent, expected returns from an investment in Arlington Asset’s common stock. (1) Represents market value minus repo financing plus hedges, deposits and related net working capital. (2) Based on 3/31/2015 contract balances and estimated 2015 forward curve funding costs. (3) Excluding non-cash accretion, based on average market value during the 1st quarter of 2015.
Agency Portfolio Highlights At 3/31/15 ($mm) Private-label Portfolio Highlights At 3/31/15 ($mm) Market Value $3,688 Market Value (75% of Face Value) $241 Repo Financing $3,309 Repo Financing $63 Capital Allocation (1) $374 Capital Allocation $178 Agency Portfolio Economics Private-label Portfolio Economics Expected Yield (w/ 6.0 CPR) 3.05% Cash Yield (3) 3.9% Cash Repo Cost 0.36% Cash Repo Cost 2.0% Hedge Cost (2) 1.60% Net Spread 1.45% Net Spread (3) 1.9% Target Leverage 8.0x Target Leverage 0.25x ROE 14.7% ROE (excluding appreciation) 4.1%
17 Served as a Director of AI since co-founding the Company in 1989 Served as Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer from 1989 to 1999, Vice
Over 30 years experience Served as Chief Executive Officer since 2014, Chief Operating Officer since 2007, and a
From 2004 to 2007, Mr. Tonkel served as President and Head of Investment Banking at
Over 29 years experience
Prior to joining the Company in March 2015, Mr. Konzmann was with American Capital,
25 years experience Mr. Bowers joined the Company in 2000 Previously, he was the Chief Portfolio Strategist for BB&T Capital Markets and the
Over 29 years experience