Investor presentation Autumn 2016 Includes financial results for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor presentation Autumn 2016 Includes financial results for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor presentation Autumn 2016 Includes financial results for six months ended 30 June 2016 Cautionary statement This Review is intended to focus on matters which are relevant to the interests of shareholders in the Company. The purpose of


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SLIDE 1

Investor presentation

Autumn 2016

Includes financial results for six months ended 30 June 2016

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SLIDE 2

Cautionary statement

This Review is intended to focus on matters which are relevant to the interests of shareholders in the

  • Company. The purpose of the Review is to assist shareholders in assessing the strategies adopted and

performance delivered by the Company and the potential for those strategies to succeed. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose. Forward looking statements are made in good faith, based on a number of assumptions concerning future events and information available to Directors at the time of their approval of this report. These forward looking statements should be treated with caution due to the inherent uncertainties underlying any such forward looking information. The user of these accounts should not rely unduly on these forward looking statements, which are not a guarantee of performance and which are subject to a number of uncertainties and other facts, many of which are outside of the Company’s control and could cause actual events to differ materially from those in these statements. No guarantee can be given of future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

2 Unless otherwise stated, all operating profit, operating margin, operating cashflow, asset return and EPS data refer to normalised results, which can be found on the face of the Group Income Statement in the first column. The definition of normalised profit is as follows: IFRS result found in the third column, excluding intangible asset amortisation and tax relief thereon. The Board believes that the normalised result gives a better indication of the underlying performance of the Group.

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SLIDE 3

Contents

  • Investment case and business model
  • Our markets
  • Strategic focus and areas for growth
  • Divisional highlights – Half year 2016
  • Financial results – Half year 2016
  • Appendix

3

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SLIDE 4

Investment case Business model

4

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SLIDE 5

Investment case Our diversity is our strength…

5

  • Best in class public transport operator with differentiated proposition:
  • Well balanced & diversified portfolio with over 2/3’s of earnings from overseas
  • Strong recurring revenue streams from perpetuity businesses & established

contract markets

  • Strong free cash flow helping to drive organic growth and position us for growth in

new markets:

  • Fast developing pipeline of substantial capital-light growth opportunities;

successful conversion of pipeline in German rail and the Middle East

  • Bolt-on acquisition opportunities in North America
  • Stable, long-term financing and commitment to investment grade rating
  • Dividend policy: around 2x Group earnings

… helping to deliver sustainable, long-term shareholder value

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SLIDE 6

Business model Using operational excellence…

6

…to serve our customers

… and create profit and cash, generating long-term shareholder value

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SLIDE 7

Business model Differentiating through diversification

(1) Data: Full Year 2015

Diversified revenue stream (1) Diversified modal breadth (1)

7

  • Diversified portfolio with leading positions in

many of our markets

  • Lower geographical and regulatory exposure

to any one market

  • Deep understanding of & expertise in

managing regulated concessions

  • Ability to apply our experience & expertise to

build revenue & profit streams in new markets

  • Morocco experience entry into

Middle East

  • Successful UK rail franchise entry

into German rail

  • Rail – revenue & profit stream secured

through to 2029 in UK & to 2033 in Germany National Express Group Revenue £1.9bn

Balanced portfolio with attractive geographic & modal exposure

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SLIDE 8

Delivering on our strategy Strong track record on improving returns

8

Focus on operational excellence is delivering sustainable & growing returns

Free Cash Flow* £m ROCE* % Dividend per share p Earnings per share* p

*Historical results restated to adjust for the impact of the Rail and Middle east bid costs previously treated as exceptional items

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SLIDE 9

9

Our markets

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SLIDE 10

Our markets Attractive markets with opportunity for growth

10

Spain & Morocco

Bus & Coach €3.8bn market 30% market share

North America

School Bus & Transit $24bn market 14% market share

UK Bus

Regional Bus £4.8bn market (excluding London) 80% local market share

UK Coach

Scheduled Coach £300m market 60% share

Rail UK & Germany

£8.5bn UK €9bn Germany

Capital intensive…………...............Capital Light

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SLIDE 11

Our markets Spain & Morocco

11

  • €3.8bn

Market size

  • Regulated & highly segmented market with 3 levels of Government

regulation; national, regional & urban

  • Each concession is exclusive to the operator

Features

  • Intercity competition from state-backed rail & low cost airlines
  • Concessions awarded through competitive public tender, typically 10 years

Competition

  • Concession renewals, urban contract wins in Spain & Morocco

Growth drivers

ALSA has leading position in a highly fragmented market National Express adding value through quality of service with ALSA the top rated transport company in Spain Introduction of RMS providing competitive advantage

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SLIDE 12

Our markets North America

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  • $24bn – 32% outsourced, 68% in-house

Market size

  • Fragmented market with top 4 players accounting for nearly 50%
  • Low barriers to entry but hard to get scale
  • Local relationships are key

Features

  • Bigger players - access to capital, geographical reach & scale advantages
  • Top 6 players – First Student, National Express, STA, Illinois Central,

Krapf, Cook Illinois

Competition

  • Price increases on renewal & market share shift - organic & acquisitions

Growth drivers

National Express is second largest player with 14% market share & best in class margins National Express adding value through quality, safety and reliability resulting in industry leading retention rates

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SLIDE 13

Our markets UK Bus

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  • £4.8bn

Market size

  • Primarily de-regulated with low barriers to entry

Features

  • National & local bus operators, car & rail
  • Top 5 players – Stagecoach, FirstGroup, Go-Ahead, Arriva, National

Express

Competition

  • Increasing passenger volumes through modal shift

Growth drivers

Largest 5 operators represent around 70% of UK de-regulated bus market National Express adding value through our pioneering partnership approach with local transport authority, working together in passengers’ interests

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SLIDE 14

Our markets UK Coach

14

  • £300m

Market size

  • Highly de-regulated
  • Operators able to compete flexibly on selected routes

Features

  • Selective competition from rail, large bus operators & localised services
  • Main competitor is Megabus (Stagecoach) but on limited number of routes

Competition

  • Increasing passenger volumes through competitive pricing, better

distribution channels, enhanced digital marketing & revenue management systems

Growth drivers

National Express only true national player with 60% market share 80% operated by third-party operators National Express adding value through innovative marketing using our enhanced CRM systems and customer database of 14m

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SLIDE 15

Our markets Rail

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  • UK £8.5bn, Germany €9bn

Market size

  • Regulated in the UK
  • Franchise lengths of between 7-15 years – pricing & quality key focus
  • Liberalising German market with DB needing to exit 40% of market share

Features

  • Increased international competition in UK franchise bidding
  • Domestic & international competition in Germany as market liberalises

Competition

  • Bidding for UK & German franchises

Growth drivers

National Express rail revenues secured through to 2029 in the UK & through to 2033 in Germany National Express adding value through innovative marketing techniques & the introduction of pioneering initiatives e.g. automatic compensation scheme

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SLIDE 16

Strategic focus and growth opportunities

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SLIDE 17

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Strategic focus

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  • 1. Focus on operational excellence
  • 2. Deployment of technology

throughout our business

  • 3. Growing our business through

targeted bolt-on acquisitions

  • 4. Further diversification by bidding in
  • ther global markets, building on
  • ur successful entry into Germany

& Bahrain

Insert photo

Clear strategy with 4 components

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SLIDE 18

Strategic focus Operational excellence

  • Continuing focus on raising service & safety standards delivers

growth in passenger journeys e.g.

  • UK Coach customer satisfaction up 1.7% & reconfirmed as
  • No. 1 trusted ground transport provider in UKCSI Survey
  • Reducing journey times – seeing double digit passenger

growth on all our Platinum routes

  • 6% growth & highest passenger numbers in the last 5

years, carrying 480m passengers in H1 2016

  • DriveCam, a driver behaviour training tool – is already

reducing collisions & associated claims

  • 100% rolled out in UK Coach; successful trial in UK Bus
  • Master Driver programme underway in the UK, ALSA & NA
  • On-going programme to drive cost efficiencies across the

Group, targeting cost reductions of £18m in 2016 – delivered £9m in H1, & nearly £60m in last 2½ years

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Generates revenue, margin and cash

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SLIDE 19

Strategic focus Operational excellence driving growth…

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…through ongoing focus on cost efficiency

  • Targeting cost reductions of at least 1% of addressable

cost base through ongoing programme of efficiency savings & overhead reduction: Target c.£18m

  • Dealing with loss making contracts - ongoing exit in Spain
  • Fuel and environmental savings – total fuel costs £180m
  • Use of technology e.g. to regulate driving behaviour for greater

fuel efficiency/lower consumption; new more efficient fleet

  • Procurement savings through bulk purchasing across the

business

  • e.g. Reduced spend by over $5m through strategic

relationships with suppliers in NA

  • Driver efficiencies - total driver wages £640m
  • Use of schedule optimisation software in UK Bus
  • Driver swiping technology in our NASB locations
  • Maintenance – total maintenance costs £150m
  • Data analytics to improve engineering performance

Insert picture

  • f

swipe in tech

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SLIDE 20

Strategic focus Deploying technology

  • Greater focus on digital... and more to come
  • Digital scorecards introduced across all our businesses
  • New mobile websites & apps in our UK and Spanish
  • perations; improving conversion rates, reducing costs

& generating revenue

  • In Spain online sales up 14%, with nearly 40% of

transactions now through digital channels

  • 10% improvement in conversion rates in UK Coach

& website now translated in 5 languages

  • Contactless payment introduced on Midland Metro with

roll-out to UK Bus in 2017

  • Launched flexible season tickets on smartcards in c2c
  • Strategic acquisition of Ecolane in North America –

market-leading planning & scheduling technology; efficiency savings & revenue generator

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Raising standards & driving efficiencies, generating sales, margin & cash

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SLIDE 21

Strategic focus Driving further growth through dynamic pricing

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Implementing enhanced Revenue Management System

  • Group revenues earned through RMS – c. £170m -

aspiration to more than triple this share in 2 years

  • Active RMS services seeing growth of 2-3% over non-

actively managed services

  • Implementing best in class fully automated RMS in

summer 2016 - rolling-out to:

  • All UK Coach routes over 18 months
  • Long haul & regional routes in Spain over 2 years
  • New technology enabling dynamic price changes in real

time across all channels

  • Optimising yield, stimulating volume growth & effectively

managing capacity to meet demand

  • Strengthening position against rail and coach competitors
  • Key competitive tool for Spanish concession renewal
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SLIDE 22

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Strategic focus Growth through targeted bolt-on acquisitions…

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  • Attractive growth opportunities in our existing markets
  • Strong track record on acquisitions with 2 recent acquisitions

in North America delivering high level of return in both profit & cash, and with a ROIC of 23%

  • 3 businesses acquired in North America in H1 with average

purchase price of 6x EBITDA

  • Strong pipeline of further acquisition opportunities in North

America with annualised revenues of $150m

  • Acquisition of Herranz in December 2015, building our

exposure to the urban bus market in Madrid – contributing €2m operating profit in H1, delivering above average margin

  • Acquisition of Voramar in June 2016 – provides entry into

Ibiza

…primarily in North America & Spain Disciplined capital allocation delivering shareholder value

Insert photo

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SLIDE 23

North America Opportunity for growth of 50% over 5 years

  • NA school bus market worth $24bn, with 10,000+ private operators
  • National Express has a strong platform
  • NA operating profit increased by more than 150% in past 6 years – potential for further significant

increase

  • Excellent acquisition track record with most recent acquisitions delivering ROIC of 23% in H1 2016
  • Operational excellence reflected in industry-leading contract retention rates & successful

conversions

  • Relentless focus on improving returns or exiting unprofitable contracts & on driving ROA through

more effective asset utilisation & capital employment

  • Strong returns versus cost of capital

23

North American divisional performance over last 6 years

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SLIDE 24

24

Strategic focus Growth through further diversification

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  • Reputation for delivering operational excellence is creating
  • pportunities in existing & new markets
  • Selective approach to bidding opportunities in new markets

where we can deliver meaningful returns in the long-term

  • Attractive bidding opportunities emerging in a number of new

markets

  • Experienced bidding team identifying opportunities
  • E.g. Casablanca Tramway – significant bidding
  • pportunity to operate the trams in Morocco’s largest city,

with a population of 3.4m

  • Capital-light opportunity
  • Preparing bid – contract commences in December 2017
  • Bid preparations also underway in another new market

Building on our success in Germany & Bahrain

Insert photo

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SLIDE 25

Strategic focus Successful start-up in 2 new markets in 2015

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German Rail

  • Largest rail market in Europe
  • Building a sizeable position in the German rail

market – contracted revenues of €2.6bn

  • Won 2 rail contracts in 2015 for RRX
  • Worth €1bn revenue, starting in 2019 and 2020 &

running to 2033

  • Successful mobilisation of first 2 German rail

contracts in December 2015

  • Targeting break-even in Germany in first full

year, one year ahead of plan

  • Initial early improvement in punctuality from

incumbent operator

  • Successful mobilisation in Bahrain in 2015
  • 140 vehicles, serving 35 routes
  • Over 15 passengers transported since launch
  • Now carrying around 1m passengers a month
  • Scope for further growth in Bahrain – 2 further

phases

  • Bahrain providing the stepping stone for further

growth in the region

  • £1.8m profit contribution in 2015

Bahrain

Growth in passenger numbers showing daily average number of journeys in Bahrain

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SLIDE 26

26

Delivering our strategy

26

  • Building a diverse global business focused on
  • perational excellence, innovation & strategic growth
  • Significant further potential to improve efficiencies &

drive revenue growth across the Group through greater use of technology

  • Strong & sustainable free cash flows, enabling us to

invest in further growth opportunities, with a disciplined approach to capital allocation delivering strong returns

  • n investment
  • Identifying opportunities in new markets, building on
  • ur success in Germany & Bahrain

Facing the future with optimism…

Insert photo

…with our diversity emerging as a key strength

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SLIDE 27

Divisional highlights

Half year 2016

27

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SLIDE 28

Rail c2c growth ahead of average for London & SE

Delivering operational excellence Creating new business

  • pportunities

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2016 2015

Revenue £115.3m £82.0m Op profit pre bid cost £3.3m £2.2m Bid costs £(3.9)m £(1.6)m Op profit £(0.6)m £0.6m Margin N/A 0.7%

  • New timetable driving demand with 24 new carriages to

be introduced from October – passenger growth +7.6%

  • Continuing strong growth in both peak & off-peak travel
  • Automatic compensation scheme & flexible season

tickets driving further growth in smart ticketing

  • Nearly 30% of annual season tickets now on smartcard
  • First 6 months of German rail
  • Awaiting outcome for

EA

  • Pipeline of German rail
  • pportunities

Revenue: +41% supported by £28m of revenues in our German rail operations & passenger growth of 7.6% in c2c, ahead of average growth rates in London & South East Profit: Down after an increase in premium charges of £4.1m & incremental bid costs of £2.3m & a small loss in German rail

  • Delivering the bid line

premiums in the UK

  • Failure to win bids in

Germany

Risk Generating superior cash & returns

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SLIDE 29
  • Successful first 6 months in RME - both punctuality & services

ahead of previous operator

  • Operating loss of £1.4m
  • Mobilisation of RRX underway with first contract commencing

in June 2019 & second one in December 2020

  • German rail revenues of €2.6bn secured through to 2033
  • Continuing to look at further bid opportunities - active pipeline

worth over €400m of annualised revenue over the next year

  • Normal rail margins of 3-5% anticipated

Firmly established in Germany

Rail Successful start to operations of first franchise

29 29

New photo required

€m

German rail revenue profile over next 10 years

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SLIDE 30

UK Bus New initiatives supporting growth

Delivering operational excellence Creating new business

  • pportunities

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2016 2015

Revenue £142.5m £141.4m Op profit £17.6m £17.1m Margin 12.4% 12.1%

  • Robust revenue growth: commercial revenue +2.3%
  • Progressing our Alliance with TfWM* with industry-

leading initiatives:

  • Launched contactless pay on Midland Metro
  • Contactless pay to be launched on buses in 2017
  • Piloting mobile ticketing later this summer
  • New focus on digital marketing, reducing costs of sale
  • Alliance with TfWM*
  • Midland Metro extension
  • Submitted bid for

Manchester Metrolink Revenue: +1% driven by 2.3% growth in commercial revenues, partially offset by lower concessionary revenues, down 5% Profit: Revenue growth & cost efficiencies driving 30 bps improvement in margin

  • Buses Bill
  • Concession income

Risk Generating superior cash & returns

*Formerly known as Centro

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SLIDE 31

UK Coach Passenger growth driving performance

Delivering operational excellence Creating new business

  • pportunities

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2016 2015

Revenue £133.8m £132.2m Op profit £10.4m £10.0m Margin 7.8% 7.6%

  • Core revenue growth of 2.4% impacted by terrorist

attacks & increased competition from rail

  • Passenger growth +4% remains strong, yield down
  • Launching more sophisticated RMS in H2 - active real

time price management, increasing yield & occupancy

  • Enhanced digital capabilities driving conversion rates
  • Roll-out of DriveCam to improve safety & reduce costs
  • New 3 year contract with

Amazon

  • New partnership: Expedia
  • New routes - London to

Stansted Revenue: Core growth of 2.4%, partially offset by a decline in revenue for Eurolines & lower revenues for rail disruption Profit: +4% with growth in margin, network optimisation & overhead savings delivering cost efficiencies

  • Advanced fare

discounting in rail

Risk Generating superior cash & returns

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SLIDE 32

North America Strong bid season & high returns from acquisitions

Delivering operational excellence Creating new business

  • pportunities

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2016 *2015

Revenue $630.6m $548.6m Op profit $64.8m $59.1m Margin 10.3% 10.8%

  • Strong bid season for 2016/17
  • Strong contract retention – 97% for renewals

(excluding ‘up or out’ contracts)

  • Average price increase +3.7% across portfolio, nearly

7% on our contracts up for bid and renewal

  • Acquisitions delivering higher returns
  • Strong growth in Transit – revenue up 52%
  • 2 school bus acquisitions,

1 with transit operations

  • Acquired a software

provider in transit market

  • Net consideration $40m

Revenue: +15% in constant currency, with strong organic growth together with bolt-on acquisitions Profit: + 9.6%. Margin down 50bps – reflecting a higher mix of lower margin Transit revenues

  • Healthcare costs
  • Wage pressure

Risk Generating superior cash & returns

* Constant currency at 2016 FX rates

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SLIDE 33

Spain and Morocco Record passenger numbers

Delivering operational excellence Creating new business

  • pportunities

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2016 2015

Revenue €344.4m €330.2m Op profit €41.4m €40.5m Margin 12.0% 12.3%

  • Record passenger numbers in both Spain & Morocco
  • Morocco up 8% - increased network in Tangier & strong

growth in Marrakech

  • Rolling out a more sophisticated RMS – enhanced

capabilities on real time price management

  • Well placed to benefit from strong summer season
  • Received BCX (Best Customer Experience) award, for

delivering outstanding service to customers

  • Launching a bid for

Casablanca Tramway

  • Acquisition in Ibiza
  • Further bolt-ons

Revenue: +4% - strong growth in Morocco with Spain benefitting from the acquisition of Herranz Profit: Morocco, Herranz, lower fuel costs & cost efficiencies Concession renewal process further delayed

  • Further competition from

rail

  • Intercity concession

renewal

Risk Generating superior cash & returns

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SLIDE 34

Financial highlights

Half year 2016

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SLIDE 35

H1 2016 Key highlights

  • Strong performance from our diverse international portfolio of cash generative businesses
  • Growth in revenue & profit (in constant currency) across all our non-rail businesses
  • North America delivering a very strong performance with revenue growth of 15%
  • Successful bid season – 7% price increases on contracts up for bid & renewal, 3.7% across

entire portfolio

  • Acquisitions generating good levels of return both in terms of profit & cash
  • Successful start for our German rail operations
  • Spain & Morocco seeing record passenger numbers, whilst Bahrain is carrying 1m passengers a

month in second year of operation

  • ROCE of 11.7% & remain on target to generate £100m of FCF for 2016

35

Delivering

  • perational

excellence Generating superior cash & returns Creating new business

  • pportunities
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SLIDE 36

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£m

H1 2016 H1 2015

% change in constant currency

Revenue 1,098.9 960.2 +10.4% Operating profit (before bid costs) 102.4 93.5 +5.2% Bid costs (6.2) (3.9) Operating profit 96.2 89.6 +3.0% Net finance costs (23.7) (23.1) Associates 0.7 0.2 Profit before tax 73.2 66.7 +3.8%

First half 2016

Strong performance

Basic EPS 11.3p 10.2p +4.5% Interim dividend 3.87p 3.685p +5.0%

36

  • Strong performance from across the Group even after higher bid costs & increased

franchise premium:

  • PBT up 9.7%, up 3.8% in constant currency
  • Basic EPS up 10.8%, up 4.5% in constant currency
  • Interim dividend of 3.87p, up 5%
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SLIDE 37

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Revenue Strong growth delivered in the first half

H1 2015 Revenue Organic growth German rail H1 2016 Revenue H1 2015 Constant Currency FX Acquisitions

37

  • Strong revenue increase, up 10.4% in constant currency
  • Acquisitions & first time contribution from German rail, together with organic

revenue growth of 3.2%

  • Positive impact from currency, with £ weaker versus both the US $ and €

Weather

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SLIDE 38

Revenue (YOY change*) Operating profit

Operating profit Strong performance across our diverse portfolio

H1 2016 H1 2015 Spain & Morocco €41.4m €40.5m North America $64.8m $59.1m UK Bus £17.6m £17.1m UK Coach £10.4m £10.0m Rail £(0.6)m £0.6m Centre £(8.7)m £(7.0)m Group £96.2m £89.6m

* Underlying year-on-year change shown in constant currency

38

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SLIDE 39

39

Operating profit Strong underlying performance

39 39

£m £m

  • Operating profit up 3% on a constant currency basis
  • Growth, acquisitions and cost efficiencies offsetting inflation, higher rail premium

charges & a small loss in German rail in its first 6 months

  • £3m benefit on FX, with the weakening of £ versus the US $ and €
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SLIDE 40

Superior cash and returns On target to generate £100m FCF for 2016

£m

H1 2016 H1 2015 FY 2015 EBITDA 153.9 141.9 298.1 Working capital 9.6 0.2 (11.8) Maintenance capex (57.4) (75.0) (111.7) Pension deficit (2.8) (4.9) (9.7) Operating cash flow 103.3 62.2 164.9 Tax/interest/other (37.2) (35.1) (53.9) Free cash flow 66.1 27.1 111.0

  • As previously guided, full year net capital expenditure expected to be between 1.1x

to 1.2x depreciation, with a target of £140m for 2016

  • Net capital expenditure to be higher in second half
  • Free cash flow of £66.1m in first half; on target to generate £100m for the full year
  • Operating cash flow conversion of 107%

40

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SLIDE 41

Superior cash and returns Continued focus on investing for future growth

£m

H1 2016 H1 2015 FY 2015 Free cash flow 66.1 27.1 111.0 UK rail franchise exit outflow (1.1)

  • (2.5)

Exceptional cash (2.8) (5.8) (10.0) Cash flow available for growth & dividends 62.2 21.3 98.5 Net growth capital expenditure (15.5) (20.7) (36.4) Acquisitions & disposals (37.6) (22.2) (69.4) Dividends (39.1) (35.5) (54.4) Other, including forex (27.2) 7.1 (19.5) Net funds flow (57.2) (50.0) (81.2) Net Debt 802.7 714.3 745.5

41

  • Free cash flow up £39m compared to 2015
  • Net funds outflow after increased dividend payments, investment in acquisitions & FX
  • f £26m on retranslation of foreign currency debt balances
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SLIDE 42

42

Growth Growth capital expenditure

Growth capital expenditure

  • Investment made in new or nascent parts of the business to drive enhanced

profit growth

  • Total spend of £15.5m in H1 (H1 2015: £20.7m)
  • New fleet in Morocco to support extension of network in Marrakech, Agadir

& Tangiers

  • Revenue management systems in Spain & UK Coach
  • Investment in infrastructure & technology to support the ramp-up of our

new German rail operations

ROCE remains at 11.7%

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SLIDE 43

43

Growth M&A

4 acquisitions in the first half

  • Combined consideration of £38m at 6x EBITDA
  • 3 in North America:
  • Special Education school bus business in New Hampshire – 170 buses
  • School bus & para transit business in New York state – 250 school

buses & 80 para transit vehicles

  • Strategic acquisition of Ecolane, a planning and scheduling software

provider into the para transit market

  • Small acquisition in Ibiza – regional bus, providing entry into Ibiza
  • Continuing to evaluate further opportunities

ROCE remains at 11.7%

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SLIDE 44

44

Foreign currency effects

Effect of fluctuations on profit and debt

Effect of a 1% weakening of £

  • £3m positive PBT impact in H1
  • Translational impact from movements in USD, EUR, CAD
  • Hedging achieved by matching local currency debt to EBITDA
  • Further Sterling profit gains anticipated, hedged by increased debt

NEX currency profile

USD EUR Operating profit (£m) 0.7 0.6 EBITDA (£m) 1.1 0.9 Debt (2.8) (2.2)

H1 average rates versus £

2016 2015 USD 1.43 1.52 EUR 1.28 1.37

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SLIDE 45

Balance sheet Rise in net debt reflects investment in growth & FX

  • Net debt increased to £803m, up £57m since Dec 2015, reflecting £53m

investment in acquisitions & growth capital expenditure & £26m increase through FX on retranslation of foreign currency debt balances

  • Remain committed to a robust financial strategy:
  • Prudent gearing policy: approximately 2-2.5x EBITDA
  • Dividend covered 2x by Group earnings
  • Strong commitment to IG debt rating
  • Prudent risk planning – fuel mostly hedged to 2018 & pension deficit plan in

place

  • £506m cash & committed headroom*

* Available cash and undrawn committed facilities at 30 June 2016

Gearing Ratios

2016 Dec 2015 Covenant

Net debt/EBITDA

2.5x 2.5x <3.5x

Interest cover

6.8x 6.6x >3.5x

Ratings

Grade Outlook

Moodys

Baa3 Stable

Fitch

BBB- Stable

45

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SLIDE 46

Good debt maturity profile*

Balance sheet Successful refinancing on bond

  • £400m 7 year 2.5% bond

issued in November 2016 replacing £350m 2017 6.25% bond

  • £50m additional liquidity to

compensate for FX movements

  • Significant interest saving in

2017 through to 2023

46

38 48 32 22 16 78 24 22 350 225 400

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Drawn RCF Bond

512**

*Maturities as at 30/6/2016, updated for £400m bond issued in November 2016, maturing in 2023 **RCF has a further 1 year extension option extending maturity to 2021

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SLIDE 47

Guidance

  • Net maintenance capital expenditure of 1.1x to 1.2x depreciation – 2016 target c.£140m
  • Growth capital expenditure of £25m to £30m
  • Free cash flow generation of £100m
  • Effective tax rate of c.20%
  • Full year incremental premium charges of £9m
  • Bid costs of c.£10m in 2016: EA, German rail & International opportunities
  • Target dividend cover c.2.0x Group earnings
  • Growth in dividend to reflect constant currency growth in Group-wide earnings
  • Significant savings from lower bond interest costs in 2017 & lower fuel costs in 2018

47

2016 2017 onwards

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SLIDE 48

48

Delivering our strategy Further significant progress to come

Delivering

  • perational

excellence Generating superior cash & returns Creating new business

  • pportunities

2016

48

  • Revenue & profit growth across the business (apart from Rail)
  • Strong growth in profit, with FX tailwinds
  • Diversity of business emerging as key strength – strong growth in overseas operations

will help to offset a slowdown in the UK

  • Remain on target to generate £100m FCF in 2016
  • Strong pipeline of opportunities – will invest in fastest growing areas
  • Interim dividend up 5%
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SLIDE 49

Appendix

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SLIDE 50

50

H1 2016 underlying revenue growth

Yield Volume Revenue Network Efficiency* LFL growth Spain Transport Spain (1)% 5% 4% (3)% 1% Transport Morocco (1)% 8% 7% (3)% 4% Non-passenger 4% Total1 4% North America1 15% UK Bus Commercial 3% (1)% 2% (1)% 1% Concession (5)% Total 1% UK Coach Core NE network (2)% 4% 2% (3)% (1)% Other (2)% Total 1% c2c (2)% 8% 6%

* Decrease / (increase) in mileage operated

1 Constant currency

50

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Bus

UK Bus – operating profit bridge

51

Revenue 2016

Organic growth Fuel Cost inflation Cost efficiencies

51

H1 2015 H1 2016

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Coach

UK Coach – operating profit bridge

52

Revenue 2016

H1 2015 Cost inflation Cost efficiencies Growth/ new routes H1 2016

52

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Spain & Morocco

Spain & Morocco – operating profit bridge

53

Revenue 2016

H1 2015 M&A H1 2016 Cost efficiencies Fuel

53

Growth

slide-54
SLIDE 54

North America

North America – operating profit bridge

54

Revenue 2016

M&A

Cost efficiencies Cost inflation Weather 54

H1 2015

H1 2016

Revenue FX Growth Fuel

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Spain RM driving revenue & passenger growth in 2016

55

  • 9 competed corridors - €161m annual

revenue with RM applied to 97%

  • Increase in revenue despite the new

High Speed Train routes & aggressive pricing policies to retain passengers

  • Revenue up 1% and passenger journeys

up 2% in H1

  • RMS on around 240 flows within 9

corridors

  • Continue revenue & passengers

recovery in almost all the corridors

  • New RMS developing fare business

rules to increase occupancy

9 main corridors performance

slide-56
SLIDE 56

Pipeline of opportunities remains exciting

56

UK Rail North America German Rail Middle East

Target market

£8.5bn – franchised £150-1,000m each 7-15 year life $25bn Transit $24bn School Bus Contracts $5-30m 3-5 year life €6bn regional DB main operator Pro-competition €20-100m each Selected geography Bus, coach & rail Liberalisation trend New public transport models

Revenue risk

Yes/ Possible underpin Contracted/ Some risk Gross cost/ Net cost mix Mix

Attractiveness*: Revenue growth Margin Capital req’d ROCE H L L H Transit School Bus H H L M L H H M L L L H H L L H 3 year target

  • pportunity

£2.75bn annual revenues $0.5bn annual revenues €0.5bn annual revenues All target contracts begin

  • ps in 2019 or later

$0.85bn annual revenues

Active pipeline

£5.7bn total revenue in live bid processes East Anglia bid submitted and awaiting outcome Manchester Metrolink bid submitted $150m total revenue in live bid processes 10+ wins – mixture of School Bus & Transit €300m+ annual revenue for 4 contracts Nuremberg still under challenge £225m total annual revenue in live bid processes (4 contracts)

* H – High; M- Medium; L- Low

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SLIDE 57

Risk management

Fuel risk largely fixed until 2018

  • Significant fuel savings expected & largely secured for 2018

2016 2017 2018 2019 % hedged* 100% 93% 76% 12% Price per litre 46.6p 44.5p 32.6p 33.1p

Fuel Hedging

57 * Of addressable volume (c.220 million litres)

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SLIDE 58

Risk management

Pension deficit plan in place through 2017

58

Pensions £m (IAS19) £m Surplus /(Deficit) H1 2016 Surplus /(Deficit) 31 Dec 2015 Profit /(charge) H1 2016 Profit /(charge) H1 2015 UK Bus (80.9) (60.4) (1.8) (1.9) UK Group 48.6 34.9

  • Rail

26.3 14.8 (1.7) (1.5) Other (2.4) (1.9)

  • (0.1)

2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

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SLIDE 59

59

2015 (£m) Spain N America UK Bus UK Coach UK Rail Revenue 502.2 683.2 286.4 281.2 168.4 Depreciation 31 52 16 4 1 Capex 35 65 31 2 14 Vehicle age (years) 7.3 7.7 8.0 n/a n/a Normalised op. profit 71.5 66.8 37.5 32.3 0.6 Driver wages(1) 29% 48% 37% 8% 7% Fuel(1) 15% 6% 12% 3%† 4%

Full year

Summary divisional figures

1 As a percentage of revenue † Excludes Third Party operators

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SLIDE 60

National Express Group PLC