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Investor Presentation June 2014 Future Oriented Information (See - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor Presentation June 2014 Future Oriented Information (See additional advisories at the end of this document) In the interest of providing information regarding Paramount Resources Ltd. ("Paramount" or the


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Investor Presentation

June 2014

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Future Oriented Information

(See additional advisories at the end of this document)

  • In the interest of providing information regarding Paramount Resources Ltd.

("Paramount" or the "Company"), including management's assessment of the Company's future plans and operations, this presentation contains certain forward- looking information and forward-looking statements.

  • The projections, estimates and beliefs contained in such forward-looking

information and statements necessarily involve a number of assumptions and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties which may cause the Company's actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any estimates or projections of future performance or results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The material assumptions, risks and uncertainties are referred to in the advisories contained in the Advisories Appendix.

  • Accordingly, shareholders and potential investors are cautioned that events or

circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted.

  • Any use of information contained within this presentation is expressly forbidden.

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Corporate Profile

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  • Average Q1 2014 production: 21,028 Boe/d (~80% gas)
  • 97.9 MM shares outstanding
  • Market capitalization @ $56.00/share: $5.5 billion
  • > 50% insider ownership
  • 924,000 net acres undeveloped land (December 31, 2013)
  • Net Debt: $1,274 MM (at March 31, 2014)
  • Q1 2014 Capital Expenditures: $199 MM
  • 2014E Capital Expenditures: $650 MM
  • 2014 production projected to attain > 50,000 Boe/d (1);

>70,000 in 2015 (1)

(1) Production dependent on availability of downstream NGLs transportation and processing capacity

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Average Production (Boe/d) Q1 2014

Kaybob 13,368 Grande Prairie 5,553 Southern 1,455 Northern 652 Total Boe/d 21,028

Core Areas

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  • 2014E capital expenditures: $650 MM

(including Strategic Investments)

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Kaybob Resource

*Graphic courtesy of www.canadianoilstocks.ca

  • Deep Basin liquids-rich gas resources in

multiple stacked horizons

  • 40-160 Bcf/section (1)
  • ~5+ Bcf EUR/Hz well (1)
  • >10 Tcf DGIIP net to PRL (1)

Paramount Acreage:

  • 560 sections Cretaceous Rights
  • 394 Sections Montney Rights
  • 258 Sections Duvernay Rights
  • Liquids-rich Montney gas play
  • ~70+ Bcf /section DGIIP (1)
  • ~ 23 Tcf DGIIP + NGLs (1)
  • Potential conventional Devonian exploration
  • Potential Duvernay Shale rock play

(1) Internal estimates: EUR denotes Ultimate Estimated Recovery, DGIIP denotes Discovered Gas Initially In Place. Please refer to "Oil and Gas Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section

  • f this presentation for further information.
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Dunvegan Hz Wells

  • Hz Dunvegan well at

Resthaven

  • Tested 11.3 MMcf/d(1)

at 6.2 MPa

  • IP: 8.3 MMcf/d
  • Currently producing

~1.3 MMcf/d

  • Cost: $8.3 MM d/c/t

(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information

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Falher/Wilrich Hz Wells

  • Hz Falher well at Musreau
  • Tested 16.4 MMcf/d(1) at

20.8 MPa

  • IP: 12 MMcf/d
  • Producing ~2 MMcf/d
  • Cost: $8.6 MM d/c/t

(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information

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Falher Type Curve

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Economics of Kaybob 4.9 Bcf Horizontal Falher Well

* Based on processing through a refrigeration facility

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Montney Gas Resource

  • Liquids-rich Montney gas play
  • Paramount holds ~325 net sections of

Montney rights

  • 2011/2012 program included 12 Hz

Montney wells: tested 5.5-15.4 MMcf/d(1)

  • Montney 2013 program: Drilled 13 wells;

commenced drilling 25 additional wells off 3 pads which are expected to rig release by mid 2014

  • Four well Montney pad completed with

combined test rates of 34 MMcf/d + NGLs(1)

  • Offset activity indicating exciting test rates
  • f over 10 MMcf/d + NGLs

(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information

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Montney NGL Rates

For Paramount well test results please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information. Test results from Competitor wells were obtained through publicly disclosed information.

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3.7 Bcf Montney Type Curve

* Based on processing through a refrigeration facility

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  • Pad drilling/pad layout
  • Bits/muds/motors
  • Well design:

monobores/orientation/reservoir placement

  • Toe up/toe down: effects on production
  • Natural gas fueled rigs

Montney Drilling/Completion Improvements

  • Cemented liners/open-hole packers (ECP’s)
  • Plug and perf/sliding sleeves
  • Frac sizing/spacing/clusters
  • Frac fluid/fluid handling
  • Pumping techniques
  • Frac fluid recycling
  • Proppants
  • Flow back/production practices
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Fox Rig No 3

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Musreau

2014 Capital Plan

  • Drill 26 (26 net)

horizontal Montney wells

  • Start drilling 11 (11 net)

Montney pad wells

  • Drill 6 (5.8 net)

horizontal Falher/Wilrich wells

  • Drill 4 (3.5 net) vertical

wells to hold lands

  • Bring 70 (net) horizontal

wells on production during 2014

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Karr

  • Located 50 km SW of Grande

Prairie

  • Multi-zone potential, including

Halfway, Montney sour and Gething, Bluesky, Falher sweet commingled gas

  • Current lands ~93,500 net acres

(~146 sections)

  • Average 78% working interest
  • Expanded plant and gathering

systems to 40 MMcf/d

  • Seven horizontal Middle Montney

wells now on production

2014 Capital Plan:

  • Drill 2 (1 net) horizontal

Cretaceous wells

  • Drill 10 (9.3 net) horizontal

Montney wells

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(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information

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Current Capacity

Gross Raw Capacity MMcf/d Net POU Raw Capacity MMcf/d

  • Est. Net

POU Sales Capacity(1) Boe/d

Musreau Refridge Plant 45 45 8,500 Resthaven Plant 20 10 2,000 Smoky Plant 100 10 2,500 Kakwa Plant 40 4 700 Pembina Musreau Processing Capacity 10 10 1,800 Subtotal 215 79 15,500 Capacity Under Construction Musreau Phase II Deep-Cut 200 200 50,000 Musreau Condensate Stabilizer Expansion

  • 15,000

Smoky/Resthaven Deep-Cut 200 30 7,500 Subtotal 400 230 72,500 Projected Total 615 309 88,000

Kaybob Plant Capacity

(1) Please refer to the heading “Estimated Net POU Sales Capacity” in the Advisories section for further information.

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Kaybob Processing Capacity (1) (2)

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Sales Turbines

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Process Flow Chart: Musreau Deep Cut Facility

Note: Illustrative example Based on indicative prices and differentials which are subject to change

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Mix of Cretaceous and Montney Wells Example Montney Wells Only Example Price 200 MMcf/d x 15% Shrinkage=170 MMcf/d (28,333 Boe/d) Sales Gas 100 Bbl/MMcf: 20,000 Bbl/d NGLs 200 MMcf/d x 23% Shrinkage=154 MMcf/d (25,667 Boe/d) Sales Gas 150 Bbl/MMcf: ~30,000 Bbl/d NGLs Deep-Cut Rich Gas $3.00/Mcf 170 MMcf/d $510,000 154 MMcf/d $462,000 Condensate $100.00/Bbl 8,000 Bbl/d $800,000 12,400 Bbl/d $1,240,000 Butane $65.00/Bbl 2,000 Bbl/d $130,000 2,500 Bbl/d $162,500 Propane $35.00/Bbl 4,000 Bbl/d $140,000 5,000 Bbl/d $175,000 Ethane $12.00/Bbl 6,000 Bbl/d $72,000 10,480 Bbl/d $125,760 Total: 48,333 Boe/d $1,652,000/day 56,047 Boe/d $2,165,260/day Royalty 5% ($82,600/day) 5% ($108,260/day) Operating Cost ($0.50/mcf) ($85,000/day) ($0.50/mcf) ($77,000/day) Total: 17.6 MMBoe/year $1,484,400/day $542 MM/year $30.78/Boe 20.5 MMBoe/year $1,980,000/day $723 MM/year $35.25/Boe

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Illustrative Deep-Cut

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Paramount Deep-Cut Montney - Illustrative Project Economics

  • Paramount’s shallow rights will add substantially to the RLI
  • Paramount has de-risked a substantial amount of its land base and

thus could have the potential to do this many times

  • Simple Payout after start up is 1.5 - 2.3 years

Resource Needed:

200 MMcf/d x 365 ~ 73 Bcf/year x 10 year RLI = 730 Bcf 70 Bcf/section @ ~ 50% recovery = ~ 20 Sections

Cost

60 (5 MMcf/d wells) x $10 MM/well = $600 MM Gas Plant = $200 MM Total: $800 MM

Annual Deep - Cut Cash Flow $542 MM/year - $723 MM/year Annual Capital = 20 (3.5 Bcf) wells x $10 MM/well $200 MM/year Free Cash Flow $342 MM - $523 MM/year

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Pembina Peace Pipeline Expansion

Numbers provided by Pembina Pipelines

LVP Capacity (Bbl/d) HVP Capacity (Bbl/d) In-Service

Current 195,000 115,000 Phase 2 Expansion 55,000 20,000* 2015 Phase 3 Expansion 320,000** 2016/2017 Total 705,000

* By displacement onto 53,000 Bbl/d Pembina North Expansion * *LVP/HVP combined; split to be determined

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Valhalla

  • Montney/Doig Play
  • 16 wells tied in at restricted

rates (midstream constraints)

  • Currently tied in to four

different producer-mid streamers on interruptible capacity leading to intermittent production profiles

  • Exploring options for long-

term processing arrangements with a dedicated mid streamer and investigating the possibility of a Paramount operated sweetening and refridge plant

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(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information (2) Based on results from Paramount's wells and publicly disclosed results of competitor wells.

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Birch

  • Three Hz Montney wells on

production

  • Production processed through

pilot facility limited to 3 MMcf/d

  • NGL yields average 60 Bbl/MMcf
  • Four wells planned in H2 2014
  • Evaluating type curve/NGL ratios

to determine economic viability

(1) Cumulative production to the end of February 2014

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Paramount Investments

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Paramount Investments

19.1 MM shares of Trilogy @ $28.00/share ~$536 MM 54.1 MM MGM Energy shares @ ~$0.19/share ~$10 MM Fox Drilling ~$85 MM 3.7 MM shares of MEG Energy @ $37.00/share ~$137 MM Other (Marquee, RMP, Strategic, Westbrick, etc.) ~$56 MM Total ~$824 MM Paramount shares outstanding 97.9 MM Paramount investments/share ~$8.42/share

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Cavalier Energy Inc.

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Cavalier Energy Inc.

  • Created in December 2011
  • Experienced team led by CEO Dr. Will Roach (ex UTS)
  • Paramount has contributed its oilsands assets and seed capital to

Cavalier Energy

  • Funding at the Cavalier level will be via a combination of equity and

debt

  • Assets retained as 100% WI within Cavalier Energy
  • Regulatory application for the development of the first 10,000 Bbl/d

SAGD project at Hoole filed November 2012 with approval anticipated Q2 2014

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Cavalier Assets

  • Approximately 320 sections gross

(316 net)

  • Prospective primarily for

conventional oilsands, bitumen in carbonates, and cold-flow heavy oil

  • Hoole Project: 100% WI

(1) Resource estimates are Best Estimates based on McDaniel independent engineering reports dated as of October 31, 2011 for Saleski, Granor and Orchid; April 30, 2010 for Eagles Nest; and December 31, 2013 for Hoole. Please refer to "Oil Sands Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section of this presentation for oil sands reserves, resources and related definitions (including NPV).

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250 275 Kgrand_rp Kjoli_fou

Hoole Grand Rapids - 1st Project

Grand Rapids Reservoir

  • Φ = 30 %, k = 1 to 4 D
  • d = 250m, h ~ 20m, p = 1,500 kPa
  • Viscosity = 200,000 to 2,000,000 cp
  • McDaniel Best Estimate: DEBIP = 1.7 Billion Bbl(1)
  • 80 wells drilled to date; 42 cored
  • 93 Million Bbl Probable Undeveloped Reserves

and 746 Million Bbl Best Estimate Recoverable Contingent Resource(1)

  • Probable Reserves NPV BT 10%: $301 Million(1)
  • Contingent Resource Best Estimate NPV BT 10%:

$1.5 Billion(1)

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(1) Independent evaluation by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. effective December 31, 2013 Please refer to "Oil Sands Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section of this presentation for oil sands reserves, resources and related definitions

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Liard, NWT

Shale Gas

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Liard Basin

  • Drilled and completed b-40-I
  • Clean-up test: ~5-14 MMcf/d(1)
  • Completion of d-57-D/94-O-12

horizontal planned for later in 2014

  • Liard Basin industry estimates(2):
  • 170-500 Bcf / section OGIP
  • ~20% expected recovery
  • ~34-100 Bcf sales gas/section
  • Paramount holds ~156 net

sections with production potential from the Besa River shale gas formation

(1) Please refer to the heading "Test Results" in the Advisories section of this presentation for further information (2) As publicly disclosed by a large U.S. public E&P company with significant landholdings in the Liard Basin. The resource evaluation disclosed by such E&P company was not noted as having been prepared independently or by a qualified reserves evaluator or auditor (as such terms are defined in NI 51-101) or in accordance with the COGE Handbook. This information is relevant to Paramount’s landholdings in the Liard Basin as the information is in respect of landholdings in the Liard Basin that are close to Paramount’s lands and are, accordingly, likely to have similar geology.

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Quarterly Operating Results

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Conventional Reserves

Columns may not add due to rounding. Conventional reserves only. Includes nominal amounts of estimated reserves in respect of Paramount's initial shale gas well at Patry, B.C.

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Summary

  • Exposure to significant reserve opportunities

– Kaybob Deep Basin: Cretaceous, Montney – Karr: Montney – Valhalla: Montney, Doig – Birch: Montney

  • Significant asset value

– Trilogy – MGM – MEG Energy – Cavalier Energy – Liard Shale Gas

  • Paramount continues to provide long-term value creation for

shareholders

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ADVISORIES APPENDIX

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Advisories

Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as "anticipate", "believe", "estimate", "will", "expect", "plan", "intend", "propose", or similar words suggesting future outcomes or an outlook. Forward looking information in this presentation includes, but is not limited to: projected production and sales volumes and growth and the timing thereof; forecast capital expenditures; exploration, development and associated operational plans and strategies, (including planned drilling programs, well tie ins and potential future facility expansions and additions), and the anticipated timing of and/or sources of funding for such activities; projected timelines for, and anticipated costs of, constructing, commissioning and/or starting-up new and expanded deep cut natural gas processing and associated facilities, and the Kaybob COU’s processing capacity following the completion of the deep cut facilities; the projected availability of third party processing, transportation, fractionation, de-ethanization and other facilities; reserves and resources estimates (including internal estimates of DGIIP and EUR related to Paramount properties and estimated net present values of oil sands reserves and resources); illustrative deep-cut processing economics and process flows (including the commodity price, royalty rate, capital and operating cost, production volume, NGLs yield, well reserves, reserve life index, cash flow and payout assumptions used therein); Paramount’s potential ability to build and utilize additional deep cut processing facilities; projected type well production profiles and net present value estimates (and the initial production rate, reserves, capital and

  • perating cost, shrinkage, NGLs yield and NGLs pricing assumptions used to generate such estimates); approvals for the initial phase of Cavalier Energy’s Hoole Grand Rapids
  • il sands development project; and general business strategies and objectives.

Such forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Assumptions have been made with respect to the following matters, in addition to any other assumptions identified in this presentation or Paramount’s continuous disclosure documents: future oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and other commodity prices; royalty rates, taxes and capital, operating, general & administrative and other costs; foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates; general economic and business conditions; the ability of Paramount to obtain the required capital to finance its exploration, development and other

  • perations; the ability of Paramount to obtain equipment, services, supplies and personnel in a timely manner and at an acceptable cost to carry out its activities; the ability of

Paramount to secure adequate product processing, transportation, fractionation, de-ethanization and storage capacity on acceptable terms; the ability of Paramount to market its

  • il, bitumen, natural gas and NGLs successfully to current and new customers; the ability of Paramount and its industry partners to obtain drilling success (including in respect of

anticipated production volumes, reserves additions and NGLs yields) and operational improvements, efficiencies and results consistent with expectations; the timely receipt of required governmental and regulatory approvals; and anticipated timelines and budgets being met in respect of drilling programs and other operations (including well completions and tie-ins and the construction, commissioning and start-up of new and expanded facilities). Although Paramount believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on them as Paramount can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by Paramount and described in the forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include and/or relate (but are not limited) to: fluctuations in oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and other commodity prices; changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to future revenue, future production, NGLs yields, royalty rates, taxes and costs and expenses; the ability to secure adequate product processing, transportation, fractionation , de-ethanization and storage capacity on acceptable terms; operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and NGLs; the ability to obtain equipment, services, supplies and personnel in a timely manner and at an acceptable cost; potential disruptions or unexpected technical or

  • ther difficulties in designing, developing, expanding or operating new, expanded or existing facilities (including third party facilities); industry wide processing, pipeline, de-

ethanization, and fractionation infrastructure outages, disruptions and constraints; risks and uncertainties involving the geology of oil and gas deposits; the uncertainty of reserves and resources estimates (including internal estimates of DGIIP and EUR); the ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations and obtain financing at an acceptable cost to fund planned exploration, development and operational activities and meet current and future obligations (including costs of anticipated new and expanded facilities and other projects and product processing, transportation, fractionation, de-ethanization and similar commitments); changes in, or in the interpretation of, laws, regulations or policies (including environmental laws); the ability to obtain required governmental or regulatory approvals in a timely manner and to enter into and maintain leases and licenses; general business, economic and market conditions; the effects of weather; the timing and costs of future abandonment and reclamation obligations and potential liabilities for environmental damage and contamination; uncertainties regarding aboriginal claims and in maintaining relationships with local populations and other stakeholders;

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Advisories cont’d

the outcome of existing and potential lawsuits, regulatory actions, audits and assessments; and other risks and uncertainties described elsewhere in this presentation and in Paramount’s filings with Canadian securities authorities, including its Annual Information Form. The foregoing list of risks is not exhaustive. Additional information concerning these and other factors which could impact Paramount are included in Paramount’s most recent Annual Information Form. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is made as of the date hereof and, except as required by applicable securities law, Paramount undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Oil and Gas Measures and Definitions This presentation contains disclosure expressed as "Boe", "MBoe" and "Boe/d". All oil and natural gas equivalency volumes have been derived using the ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil. Equivalency measures may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the well head. During the first quarter of 2014, the value ratio between crude oil and natural gas was approximately 16:1. This value ratio is significantly different from the energy equivalency ratio of 6:1. Using a 6:1 ratio would be misleading as an indication of value. This presentation contains internal estimates of Discovered Gas Initially in Place ("DGIIP") and Estimated Ultimate Recovery ("EUR"). DGIIP means that quantity of gas that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of DGIIP includes production, reserves and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. EUR means those quantities of oil or gas which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from an accumulation, plus those quantities of oil or gas already produced therefrom. DGIIP is the most specific category that could be assigned to the applicable gas resource. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of this DGIIP Conventional reserve estimates include nominal amounts of volumes and future net revenues related to Paramount’s completed shale gas well. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. In addition, estimates of future net revenue do not represent fair market value. Non-GAAP Measures In this presentation “Net Debt” and “Funds Flow” (collectively, the “Non-GAAP measures”) are used and do not have any standardized meanings as prescribed by GAAP. Net Debt is a measure of a company's overall debt position after adjusting for certain working capital amounts and is used by management to assess a company’s overall leverage position. Funds flow refers to cash from operating activities before net changes in operating non-cash working capital, geological and geophysical expenses and asset retirement obligation

  • settlements. Funds flow is commonly used in the oil and gas industry to assist management and investors in measuring a company’s ability to fund capital programs and meet

financial obligations. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or construed as alternatives to their most directly comparable measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with GAAP. The Non-GAAP measures are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by

  • ther issuers.
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Advisories cont’d

Test Results The Kaybob test rates disclosed in this document represent the average rate of gas-flow during the post clean-up production testing at the largest choke setting. The flow tests typically range from 12 to 72 hours in duration. Karr-Gold Creek and Valhalla test rates represent the average rate of gas-flow during the last 12 hours of post-clean up production testing up 2 7/8” tubing. The Liard Basin Besa River b-40-I well flowed on clean-up during the first week of March 2013 and was then shut-in pending completion . Over the first 69 hours of metered gas flow natural gas rates ranged between 5 MMcf/d and 14 MMcf/d and completion fluid recoveries averaged approximately 4,000 Bbl/d at flowing tube pressures of 11,000 to 35,000 kPa up 114.3 mm tubing. During the final 24 hours of this period natural gas rates averaged 7 MMcf/d and completion fluid recovery was approximately 2,800 Bbl/d at an average flowing tubing pressure of approximately 11,500 kPa. Pressure transient analyses and well-test interpretations have not been carried out for any of these wells and, as such, all data should be considered preliminary until such analyses or interpretations have been done. Liquids yields have not been included in the Kaybob, Karr-Gold Creek and Valhalla test results as the bulk of the tested wells were fracture stimulated using frac oil with the result that substantially all liquids recovered during the test period were load fluid. Test results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. Estimated Net POU Sales Capacity The term “Estimated Net POU Sales Capacity”, as used in this presentation, means the estimated volumes of saleable natural gas and NGLs (expressed on a combined basis in Boe/d) that would result from the processing of the associated quantities of raw gas set out in the "Net POU Raw Capacity" column. These volumes will include working interest partner volumes that are commingled with Paramount's. These estimates are subject to certain assumptions and should not be construed as projections of Paramount's Kaybob area production volumes at or by any particular date or dates as these volumes will depend on, and be subject to, a number of factors and contingencies as set out elsewhere in these Advisories. Oil Sands Measures and Definitions This presentation contains disclosure of certain results of (i) an updated independent evaluation by McDaniel of the bitumen reserves and resources of Cavalier Energy Inc.’s (Cavalier) in the Grand Rapids formation in Cavalier’s Hoole oil sands property as of December 31, 2013; (ii) an independent evaluation by McDaniel of Cavalier’s bitumen resources in its Saleski and other carbonate bitumen properties (House, Orchid and Granor) as of October 31, 2011; and (iii) an independent evaluation by McDaniel of Cavalier's bitumen resources in its Eagle Nest oil sands property as of April 30, 2010 (collectively, the McDaniel Evaluations). Specifically, this presentation includes McDaniel’s assessment as of December 31, 2013 of Cavalier’s probable undeveloped reserves, best estimate economic contingent resources and discovered exploitable bitumen in place in the Grand Rapids formation at Hoole (and the estimated net present value of these probable undeveloped reserves and economic contingent resources); McDaniel’s best estimate as of October 31, 2011 of Cavalier’s contingent resources (technology under development) in its Saleski carbonate bitumen property and of the discovered and undiscovered exploitable bitumen in place at Saleski and Cavalier’s other carbonate bitumen properties; and McDaniel's best estimate as of April 30, 2010 of Cavalier's discovered and undiscovered bitumen in place in its Eagle's Nest property. These terms, as used in the McDaniel Evaluations, have the following meanings: “Probable reserves” are reserves that are less certain to be recoverable than proved reserves. Specifically, whereas proved reserves are reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable (i.e. it is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves), in the case of probable reserves it is equally likely that the actual quantities recovered will be greater or less than the estimated probable reserves (or where there are both proved and probable reserves the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves). "Contingent resources" are those quantities of bitumen resources estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology

  • r technology under development, but which are classified as resources rather than reserves due to one or more contingencies, such as the absence of regulatory applications,

detailed design estimates or near term development plans. "Economic contingent resources" are a sub-category of contingent bitumen resources that are considered to be currently economically recoverable based on the reserves evaluator’s then current forecasts of commodity prices and costs.

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Advisories cont’d

At Hoole, a portion of Cavalier’s economic contingent resources were re-classified by McDaniel as probable reserves in McDaniel's evaluation effective as of December 31, 2012 by virtue of Cavalier having finalized its plans for a pilot project and submitted a regulatory application for this pilot project. Cavalier will need to finalize plans for the commercial development of the balance of the Hoole oil sands properties and submit regulatory applications for their development before the balance of Cavalier's contingent resources at Hoole can be re-classified as probable reserves. These same contingencies will also have to be overcome in the case of the Saleski carbonate bitumen property in order for Cavalier’s contingent resources in this property to be re-classified as probable reserves. In addition, as sustained commercial production has not yet been obtained from any carbonate bitumen reservoirs, it will also be necessary in the case of the Saleski property to demonstrate the successful application of SAGD or other production technology to the Saleski reservoir (or a reasonable analog thereof). It is for this reason that Cavalier’s bitumen resources at Saleski are referred to as “contingent resources (technology under development)”. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of Cavalier’s contingent resources at either Hoole or Saleski. "Discovered bitumen in place" or "DBIP" (equivalent to discovered resources) is the aggregate quantity of bitumen that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in a known accumulation prior to production. To qualify as “discovered exploitable bitumen in place" or "DEBIP" these volumes must be contained in a reservoir that meets or exceeds certain characteristics, such as minimum continuous net pay, porosity and mass bitumen content. DBIP or DEBIP volumes that are considered to be recoverable as of a given date are classified as reserves or contingent resources (with the remaining DBIP or DEBIP volumes being those that are considered to be unrecoverable as of that date). "Undiscovered bitumen in place" or "UDBIP" (equivalent to undiscovered resources) is the aggregate quantity of bitumen that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in accumulations that have yet to be discovered. To qualify as “undiscovered exploitable bitumen in place” or "UDEBIP" these volumes must have been mapped using known data points penetrating the applicable subsurface stratigraphic intervals and possess definitive geophysical log data along with seismic data and regional mapping. At Hoole, DEBIP volumes have been ascribed by McDaniel to those portions of the Grand Rapids formation where they felt minimum continuous net pay, porosity, mass bitumen content and other reservoir characteristics allowed for the commercial application of known recovery technologies. For Saleski and the other carbonate bitumen properties, DEBIP volumes have been restricted to those portions of the reservoirs that have a minimum thickness of 10 meters of substantially clean, continuous predominantly bitumen-saturated carbonate with log porosity of at least 10 percent and bitumen saturation greater than 50 percent, and with competent top and lateral reservoir containment. In addition, DEBIP volumes have generally been limited to areas within one mile of known data points that penetrate the applicable stratigraphic intervals and possess definitive geophysical log data. However, in certain circumstances DEBIP volumes have been assigned to areas outside these one mile limits were it was felt that reservoir continuity existed between offsetting data points. There is no certainty that it will ever be commercially viable to produce any portion of: (i) the DEBIP at Hoole or at Saleski or any of the other carbonate bitumen properties; or (ii) the DBIP at Eagles Nest. There is also no certainty that any of the UDEBIP at Saleski and the other carbonate bitumen properties, or the UDBIP at Eagles Nest, will ever be discovered, or if it is discovered that it will ever be commercially viable to produce any portion of it. "Best estimate" is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity of contingent resources that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate (or stated another way, there is a 50 percent confidence level that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate amount). “Net present value” or “NPV” of Cavalier’s probable undeveloped reserves and economic contingent reserves at Hoole represents McDaniel’s estimates of Cavalier’s share of future net revenues, before the deduction of income taxes, from these reserves and resources discounted at 10%. In calculating these NPVs McDaniel considered items such as revenues, royalties, operating costs, abandonment costs and capital expenditures (but excluded financing and general and administrative costs). Their calculations assume natural gas is used as a fuel for steam generation, and are based on their forecast commodity prices as of January 1, 2014 and forecast costs as of December 31, 2013. Royalties were calculated based on Alberta’s Royalty Framework applicable to oil sands projects. McDaniel’s estimated NPVs do not represent fair market value.

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