Investor Presentation Landsbankinn
November 2017
Investor Presentation Landsbankinn November 2017 Investor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation Landsbankinn November 2017 Investor Presentation DISCLAIMER This presentation is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or sale of any
November 2017
Landsbankinn
This presentation is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This presentation may not be reproduced, retransmitted or further distributed to the press or any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Landsbankinn in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. The information set out in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made by Landsbankinn as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. This presentation is intended only for persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments being relevant persons (as defined below). Solicitations resulting from this presentation will only be responded to if the person concerned is a relevant person. Neither this presentation nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United States of America, its territories or possessions, or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America, its territories or possessions. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Landsbankinn has not registered and does not intend to register any securities in the United States or to conduct a public offering of any securities in the United States. This presentation is made to and is directed only at persons in the United Kingdom having professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of "investment professionals" in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (the "Order"), and to those persons to whom it can
The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including, without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in Landsbankinn’s records and other data available from third parties. Although Landsbankinn believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control, and Landsbankinn may not achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections. Neither Landsbankinn, nor any of its members, directors, officers, agents, employees or advisers intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Landsbankinn accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss, howsoever arising, from use of this presentation. Landsbankinn assumes no obligation to update this presentation, provide any additional information or correct any errors, which may eventually become apparent.
2 Investor Presentation
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation
Capital city Reykjavík Population 343,960 (Q2 2017) Size 102,775 km2 Government Parliamentary Constitutional Republic Elections held 28 October 2017 Legislature Althingi 63 members elected for term every four years Political milestones Full independence in 1944 Member of UN in 1946, OECD 1948, NATO
European Economic Area in 1994 Currency ISK - Icelandic króna 1 EUR ≈ 122 ISK GDP Total $19.4 billion Per Capita $57,889 (2016) Sovereign long term credit ratings S&P: A/Stable (June 2017) Moody’s: A3/Stable (Sept 2016) Fitch: A-/Positive (July 2017)
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Landsbankinn‘s branches
Source: www.statice.is, www.imf.org
Landsbankinn
A leading Icelandic universal bank
■ Landsbankinn hf. is the largest financial institution in Iceland offering universal banking services for
households, corporates and institutional investors
■ The market leader in the Icelandic financial services sector
■ Market share ≈ 35-40 % in the domestic retail segment and corporate sector ■ Award winning mobile banking solutions for retail and corporates ■ The most extensive branch network in Iceland, 24 branches and 13 service points
■ Total number of staff 998 (9M 2017)
4 Investor Presentation
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 5
Landsbankinn
6
Icelandic State Treasury
≈ 900 other shareholders
0.3%
The Icelandic State Financial Investments (ISFI)
98.2%
Landsbankinn
1.5%
■
The Finance Ministry published an ownership policy in July 2017 in regards to equity holdings in financial companies that are supervised by the Icelandic State Financial Investments (ISFI)
■
In regards to Landsbankinn the policy states,
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The government will retain a significant equity stake in the bank (34-40%) to ensure stability in the domestic financial sector
■
The remaining equity stake will be sold in the next few years given favorable market conditions
■
Equity in Landsbankinn will be listed on a stock exchange
Investor Presentation
Landsbankinn
7
Perla Ösp Ásgeirsdóttir Hreiðar Bjarnason Hrefna Ösp Sigfinnsdóttir Arinbjörn Ólafsson Helgi Teitur Helgason Árni Þór Þorbjörnsson Lilja B. Einarsdóttir
Investor Presentation
Landsbankinn
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Fundamental factors for Landsbankinn:
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Very strong capital and earnings
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Strong liquidity position
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Average funding profile
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Adequate business position
■
Moderate risk position Icelandic sovereign Landsbankinn hf. Long-term rating A BBB+ Short-term rating A-1 A-2 Outlook Stable Stable Last rating action March 2017 October 2017
Investor Presentation 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
07.10.2008 07.10.2009 07.10.2010 07.10.2011 07.10.2012 07.10.2013 07.10.2014 07.10.2015 07.10.2016 07.10.2017 Landsbankinn hf. Republic of Iceland - Foreign currency 20.01.2014 25.10.2017 25.10.2016 21.07.2015
Landsbankinn
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Landsbankinn is among the global leaders in terms of its leverage and CET 1 ratio
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Landsbankinn’s pro-forma RAC ratio as of mid-year 2017 is at 19.9%
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Landsbankinn aims to be in the highest category for RAC ratio, as determined and measured by the relevant credit rating agency
Source: Standard&Poors – RatingsDirect *Mid-year 2017 RAC ratio
Investor Presentation
29.7% 18.4% 16.3% 16.3% 12.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Landsbankinn Nordea Danske Bank DNB Bank of Ireland
CET 1 ratio
Year-end 2016
20.3% 5.0% 4.6% 7.3% 7.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Landsbankinn Nordea Danske Bank DNB Bank of Ireland
Leverage ratio
Year-end 2016
19.9%* 11.6% 10.3% 10.9% 12.3% 10.2% 10.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Landsbankinn Swedbank AB Jyske Bank AS Nordea Bank AB DNB Bank AS Danske Bank AS Bank of Ireland
S&P RAC ratio year-end 2016
Landsbankinn
Banking System in Iceland – Three Main Players
Investor Presentation 10
1199 1078 1144 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Assets (ISKbn) 243 178 222 50 100 150 200 250 300 Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Equity (ISKbn) 26.3% 22.5% 26.6% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Tier 1 ratio 44.7% 60.2% 55.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Cost to Income ratio 141.8% 130.0% 168.4% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Loans to Deposit ratio 18.1% 15.3% 16.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Landsbankinn Íslandsbanki Arion banki Leverage ratio Source: 9M 2017 Financial Statements
Landsbankinn
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Retail banking Corporate banking
Investor Presentation
Source: Gallup
“Deild” and “TRÚNAÐARMÁL”:
Landsbankinn
Profit after taxes
ISK 16.84bn
Return on equity after taxes
9.4%
Interest spread as a ratio
2.5%
Cost-income ratio
44.7%
Total Assets
ISK 1,199bn 26.3% 158% 1.0% ISK 243bn
Equity Tier 1 Capital LCR Total Arrears (>90 days)
EUR 134.3m EUR 9.6bn EUR 1.9bn
Exchange rate: EUR/ISK as at 30 September 2017 125.4
13 Investor Presentation
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 14
12.4% 12.5% 14.8% 6.6% 9.4%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M 2017
Return on equity after taxes
26.7% 29.5% 30.4% 30.2% 26.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Total capital ratio
42.9% 56.0% 43.8% 48.4% 44.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M 2017
Cost-income ratio excluding valuation adjustments
4.4% 8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 5.2%
4.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dividend yield
Special dividend
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 15
Amounts in ISKm
9M 2017 9M 2016 Change Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Change Net interest income 27,070 26,207 3% 8,894 8,596 3% Net adjustments in valuation 2,067 4,419
766 2,144
Net interest income after adjustments in valuation 29,137 30,626
9,660 10,740
Net fee and commission income 6,591 5,909 12% 2,159 2,015 7% Other net operating income 5,914 5,157 15% 535 355 51% Total operating income 41,642 41,692 0% 12,354 13,110
Salaries and related expenses 10,308 10,409
3,163 3,096 2% Other operating expenses 7,378 7,173 3% 2,475 2,230 11% Total operating expenses 17,686 17,582 1% 5,638 5,326 6% Profit before tax 23,956 24,110 1% 6,716 7,784
Income tax expense and tax on liabilities of financial institutions 7,115 7,710
2,528 2,682
Profit for the period 16,841 16,400 3% 4,188 5,102
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 16
Amounts in ISKm
62% 15% 9% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Income mix
Net interest income Net commission and fees Equities Other net operating income Net adjustments in valuation Bonds FX gain (loss)
9,879 7,855 7,269 7,466 8,018 7,118 7,385 8,929 10,145 10,158 7,340 7,057 8,834 8,596 8,894 9,977 5,776 7,292 8,443 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net interest income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4,430 14,027 12,334 4,419 2,067 3,932 6,101 5,882
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net adjustments in valuation
9M Q4 1,363 1,518 1,641 1,980 2,116 1,597 1,403 1,753 1,914 2,316 1,151 1,275 1,745 2,015 2,159 1,180 1,640 1,702 1,900 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net fee and commission income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 17
Amounts in ISKm
4,631 2,491 7,947
3,975 2,372 3,572 1,724 555
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Equities
9M Q4 3,438 614 2,186 1,225 1,251 637 2 592 315 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bonds
9M Q4 1,350
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107
500 1,000 1,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FX gain (loss)
9M Q4 2,660 1,473
3,999 1,581 750 1,358 4,296 744
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other operating income
9M Q4
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 18
*2013, less expensed equity-based wages
Amounts in ISKm
■
In 2010 the government imposed a special tax on financial institutions
■
The tax of 0.376% is levied on the carrying amount of total liabilities in excess of ISK 50bn
3,173 3,455 3,702 3,754 3,491 3,122 3,288 3,179 3,559 3,654 2,810 3,019 3,466 3,096 3,163 3,508 3,805 3,407 3,640 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Salaries and related expenses*
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1,183 1,126 1,063 1,012 998 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Full time employees
2,611 2,649 2,580 2,499 2,426 2,593 2,395 2,597 2,444 2,477 2,371 2,164 2,127 2,230 2,475 2,372 3,313 2,674 2,292 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other operating expenses
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 19
Amounts in ISKm
5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 59% 65% 73% 77% 76% 6% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 25% 22% 18% 14% 13% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Assets
Cash and balances with CB Bonds and debt instruments Equities and equity instruments Loans and advances to financial institutions Loans and advances to customers Other assets
30.09.17 31.12.16 Change Cash and balances with CB 33,157 30,662 2,495 8% Bonds and debt instruments 160,223 154,892 5,331 3% Equities and equity instruments 31,049 26,688 4,361 16% Loans and advances to financial institutions 41,485 20,408 21,077 103% Loans and advances to customers 905,927 853,417 52,510 6% Other assets 22,740 17,641 5,099 29% Assets classified as held for sale 4,377 7,449
Total 1,198,958 1,111,157 87,801 8%
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 20
Amounts in ISKbn
* Problem loans are defined as loans and advances with individual allowance and / or more than 90 days in arrears 250 240 274 319 357 244 279 327 360 389 187 199 211 174 160 680 718 812 853 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Loans to customers
ISK-CPI loans ISK loans FX loans 138 110 111 121 132 151 171 200 239 267 185 198 210 173 160 474 480 521 533 559 100 200 300 400 500 600 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Loans to corporates
ISK-CPI loans ISK loans FX loans 5.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 5.5% 4.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% 10.8% 6.3% 3.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Problem loans
Arrears > 90 days Loans and advances with individual allowance 112 129 163 198 225 93 108 127 121 122 1 1 1 1 206 239 291 320 347 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Loans to individuals
ISK-CPI loans ISK loans FX loans
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 21
Amounts in ISKbn
30.09.2017 31.12.2016 Change ISK 394 361 33 9% ISK CPI 357 319 38 12% EUR 102 93 9 10% USD 40 61
Other currencies 13 19
Total loans 906 853 53 6%
New lending FX change CPI changes Changes in impairment & Write offs Installments 853 203
5 1
906 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100
Loans change 9M 2017
Loans 31.12.16 Loans 30.09.17
43% 39% 11% 5% 2%
Loans by currencies
ISK ISK CPI EUR USD Other currencies
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 22
Amounts in ISKm
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Public entities Individuals Fisheries Construction companies Real estates companies Holding companies Retail Services ITC Manifacturing Agriculture Other
Loans by industry sectors
31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Indexed mortgage loans Non-indexed mortgage loans Overdrafts and credit cards Vehicle financing Other
Loans to individuals by loan types
31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Continous LTV distribution of mortages to individuals
31.12.2015 31.12.2016 30.9.2017
Weighted average LTV 30.09.17 60.1% (62.3% 31.12.16 ; 63.4% 31.12.2015)
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Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 24
Amounts in ISKm
167,218 53,827 56,731 20,093 21,946 456,662 551,435 559,051 589,725 638,781 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Deposits
Due to financial institutions and CB Deposits from customers 21% 23% 23% 23% 20% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 21% 19% 19% 20% 23% 40% 50% 50% 53% 53% 14% 5% 5% 2% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Liabilities and equity
Due to financial institutions and CB Deposits from customers Borrowings & subordinated liabilities Other liabilities Equity
30.09.17 31.12.16 Change Due to financial institutions and CB 21,946 20,093 1,853 9% Deposits from customers 638,781 589,725 49,056 8% Borrowings 267,853 223,944 43,909 20% Other liabilities 27,017 25,776 1,243 5% Subordinated liabilities 229 388
Equity 243,132 251,231
Total 1,198,958 1,111,157 87,801 8%
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 25
Amounts in ISKm
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Issued bonds to LBI Covered bonds EMTN issuance Other unsecured loans Subordinated liabilities
Borrowings
31.12.2013 31.12.2014 31.12.2015 31.12.2016 30.9.2017 7,775 6,740 16,240 3,720 19,540 5,640 16,140 941 40,246 12,160 26,976 62,700 40,274 2,736 2,654
200 300 400 500 600 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 > 10 years
Maturity profile
ISK FX
ISKm EURm 66% 25% 9%
Borrowings 30.09.2017
EMTN issuance Covered bonds Other Unsecured loans Subordinated liabilities
Landsbankinn
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54% 41% 3% 2% 58% 26% 8% 4% 4% 57% 31% 5% 4% 3% 32% 47% 12% 6% 3% 34% 31% 8% 10% 13% 4% 60% 13% 7% 6% 5% 9% Type
Geography
Investor Presentation
Issue date: October 2015 September 2016 March 2017 Size: € 300 m € 500 m € 300 m
Issue rating (S&P): BBB- (positive outlook) BBB- (positive outlook) BBB (positive outlook) Tenor: 3-year 4.5-year 5-year Maturity date: October 2018 March 2021 March 2022
Launch spread: + 295 bp + 190 bp + 130 bp
Joint lead managers: Citi, DB, JP Morgan Barclays, Citi, DB Barclays, BAML, Citi, JP Morgan Roadshow locations: Copenhagen, Oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm, London Copenhagen, Helsinki, London, Paris, Holland London, Paris, Holland
Investors
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 27
*according to the liquidity and funding rules set by the Central Bank of Iceland, No. 266/2017
Amounts in ISKm
102% 131% 113% 128% 158% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Liquidity coverage ratio total
LCR total Regulatory requirements 208% 614% 360% 743% 873% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000% 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Liquidity coverage ratio FX
LCR FX Regulatory requirements
Total* FX* 30.09.2017 Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Level 1 liquid assets 128,927 128,927 49,299 49,299 Level 2 liquid assets information items 28,806 10,375
157,733 128,927 59,674 49,299 Deposits 428,579 113,894 46,714 17,859 Borrowing 2,089 2,089 1,129 1,129 Other outflows 139,651 21,406 33,276 3,610
570,319 137,389 81,119 22,598 Loans and advances to financial institutions 47,413 35,848 37,152 35,787 Other inflows 42,193 20,145 10,891 5,701 Limit on inflows
89,606 55,993 48,043 16,948 Liquidity coverage A/(B-C) 158% 873%
Landsbankinn
Investor Presentation 28
Capital requirements
■
Total capital ratio was 26.8% end of September 2017, as compared with 30.2% at year-end 2016
■
The Bank's target is to maintain a capital ratio above the FME's total capital requirement at any given time, plus an administration buffer specified in the Bank's risk appetite. The Bank also aims to be in the highest category for risk-adjusted capital ratio, as determined and measured by the relevant credit rating agencies
CET1 Tier 1 Total Pillar I 4.5% 6.0% 8.0% Pillar II A 2.8% 3.7% 4.9% Minimum requirements under Pillar I and Pillar II A 7.3% 9.7% 12.9% Systemic risk buffer 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Capital buffer for systematically important institutions 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Countercyclical capital buffer 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Capital conservation buffer 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Combined buffer requirements under Pillar II B 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% Total capital requirements 15.5% 17.9% 21.2%
8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.3% 6.0% 4.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 21.8% 22.1% 21.2% 29.5% 30.4% 30.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16
Total capital requirements as defined by FME
Capital conservation buffer Countercyclical capital buffer Capital buffer for systematically important institutuions Systemic risk buffer Pillar II A Pillar I Total capital ratio 888,918 845,604 865,482 836,758 911,779 77.2% 77.0% 77.4% 75.3% 76.0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 31.12.13 31.12.14 31.12.15 31.12.16 30.09.17
Risk weighted assets
Risk weighted assets RWA / total assets
Amounts in ISKm
Landsbankinn
29
Exceptionally strong capital ratio’s Positive credit rating trajectory
» Currently BBB+/A-2,
stable outlook
Largest financial institution in Iceland Favorable economic
Investor Presentation
2017-2019 Landsbankinn Economic Research projections Source: Statistics Iceland, Landsbanki Economic Research
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP growth and contribution to growth
Private final consumption Government final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Net exports Gross Domestic Product %
Investor Presentation
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current account balance*
Trade balance Underlying balance on primary income ** Underlying current account balance ** Headline current account balance
* Secondary income is included in the primary income.
** Excluding the calculated income and expenses of DMBs in winding-up proceedings but including the estimated effects of the settlement of their estates, and excluding the effects of pharmaceuticals company Actavis on the primary income until 2012. Also adjusted for the failed DMBs' financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM).
% of GDP
32
Source: Statistics Iceland
5 10 15 20 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
Components of CPI inflation
Other components Services Domestic goods Housing Petrol Imported goods CPI %
Investor Presentation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unemployment rate
%
33
Source: Icelandic Tourist Board
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M 2017
Number of foreign visitors
YoY change (right) Total number (left)
thousand visitors
Investor Presentation
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 20 40 60 80 100 120
Exchange rate
Real exchange rate Nominal exchange rate (trade weighted average)
Index (inverted scale)
34
Source: Central Bank of Iceland
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17
Central Bank intervention in foreign exchange market
FX purchase, spot market FX sale, spot market FX purchase, forward contracts FX sale, forward contracts Net accumulated purchase (right)
ISKbn ISKbn
Investor Presentation
20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Iceland International Investment Position is now close to zero
IIP IIP excluding DMBs undergoing winding up Estimated underlying IIP * % GDP
* Central Bank of Iceland estimate of the underlying net external position that will result when the domestic and foreign assets of the deposit money banks in winding-up proceedings have been sold and the proceeds distributed to creditors
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
General government debt
Net debt Gross debt
2016-2021 IMF staff estimations / projections Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017
% GDP 50 100 150 200 250 Denmark Sweden Iceland Germany Ireland United Kingdom France Belgium United States Portugal Italy Greece Japan
General Government Gross Debt
% of GDP
IMF Staff estimations Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oktober 2017
Investor Presentation
36
Source: Financial Stability 2017/2, Central Bank of Iceland
Source: Financial Stability 2017/2, Central Bank of Iceland
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Household debt
Indexed Foreign currency Non-indexed Overdraft Asset financing % GDP
Investor Presentation
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Corporate debt¹
Indexed Non-indexed FX loans Asset financing agreements Domestic bonds issued Foreign bonds issued % GDP
37
1. Debt owed to domestic and foreign financial undertakings and market bonds issued. Source: Financial Stability 2017/1, Central Bank of Iceland
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Corporate debt –international comparison¹
Iceland Denmark Ireland Greece Spain Italy Cyprus Finland Sweden Norway % GDP
Investor Presentation