Investor Presentation January 2016 Cautionary Statement This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation January 2016 Cautionary Statement This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation January 2016 Cautionary Statement This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to Killam Apartment REIT and its operations, strategy, financial performance and condition. These statements
2 This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to Killam Apartment REIT and its
- perations, strategy, financial performance and condition. These statements generally can be identified
by use of forward-looking words such as “may”, ”will”, “expect”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “intends”, “believe” or “continue” or the negative thereof or similar variations. The actual results and performance
- f Killam Apartment REIT discussed herein could differ materially from those expressed or implied by
such statements. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations include, among other things, general economic and market factors, competition, changes in government regulation and the factors described under “Risk Factors” in Killam' annual information form and other securities regulatory filings. The cautionary statements qualify all forward- looking statements attributable to Killam Apartment REIT and persons acting on its behalf. Unless
- therwise stated, all forward-looking statements speak only as of the date to which this presentation
refers, and the parties have no obligation to update such statements.
Cautionary Statement
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Killam Apartment REIT has $1.8 billion in residential real estate assets in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Alberta.
Killam Apartment REIT
Apartment units 13,655 MHC* sites 5,165 Market cap $630 M Distribution $0.60 Dividend yield 5.9%
- Avg. daily volume
116 K
*manufactured home community
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Diversified Real Estate Portfolio
5,064 units
Halifax, NS
1,629 units
Moncton, NB Fredericton, NB
1,394 units
Saint John, NB
1,202 units
- St. John’s, NL
915 units
Charlottetown, PE
906 units
Ottawa, ON
780 units 378 units
Toronto, ON
307 units
London, ON Cambridge, ON
264 units
Calgary, AB
347 units
Non-core Regions
469 units Killam’s MHC portfolio includes 5,165 units in Nova Scotia, Ontario, Newfoundland and New Brunswick.
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89% 9% 2%
NOI by Sector
Apartments MHCs Commercial
Diversified Real Estate Portfolio
elevatored mid-rise 35% town-houses 2% walk-ups 30% high rise 33%
Apartment NOI by Type of Property
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Diversified Real Estate Portfolio
Halifax 40% Ontario 16% Moncton 9% Fredericton 9%
- St. John's
8% PEI 7% Saint John 5% Calgary 3% Other 3%
% of Apartment NOI by Core Market
Killam is the dominant landlord in Atlantic Canada with a 14% market share of the region’s urban centres.
Nova Scotia 48% Ontario 46% NFLD 3% New Brunswick 3%
% of MHC NOI by Province
7
Killam’s Strategy
1) Maximize earnings from the existing portfolio. 2) Expand the portfolio and diversify geographically through acquisitions. 3) Develop high-quality properties in core markets.
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Killam’s Strategy
Maximizing Same Store Earnings
2.6% 5.1% 2.1% 8.4% 4.8% 0.3% 2.0% (0.4%) (0.9%) 4.3% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
Same Store NOI Growth 2006-2015
Record high natural gas prices in Atlantic Canada impacted NOI growth in 2013 & 2014.
The average NOI growth from Killam’s same store portfolio from 2006 – 2014 was 2.7%.
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Killam’s Strategy
Annual Growth Through Acquisitions
$16 $45 $167 $200 $103 $125 $36 $3 $115 $106 $85 $121 $160 $53
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Acquisitions
$ millions
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Killam’s Strategy
Active Development Program
$5.0 $7.6 $14.1 $7.7 $14.7 $33.0 $19.0 $25.3 $21.5 $25.4 $16.7
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80
Developments Completed Per Year
$ millions
Since completing its first development in 2011, Killam has invested over $100 million in developments. Killam expects to spend between $30 - $60 million per year on apartment developments.
* expectation
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Killam’s Strategy
Increased Geographic Diversification
0% 5% 7% 8% 11% 14% 19% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
% of Apartment NOI Generated Outside Atlantic Canada
* expectation
84% of the $160 million in acquisitions completed in 2014 were in Ontario and Alberta.
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Financial & Operating Performance
9.3% FFO Per Share Growth YTD in 2015
$0.53 $0.54 $0.59 Q1-Q3 '13 Q1-Q3 '14 Q1-Q3 '15
FFO Per Share Growth Q1 – Q3 2015
Primary drivers of FFO growth in 2015:
- 4.3% same store NOI
growth
- Acquisitions and
developments
- Interest expense savings
- n refinancings
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Financial Performance
4.3% Same Store NOI Growth YTD
2.2% 4.2% 2.4% (0.4%) 3.4% 0.0% 4.2% 4.8% 4.3%
Same Store Results 9 months ended Sept 30, 2015
Revenue Expenses NOI
Apartments MHCs Consolidated
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Financial & Operating Performance
2.4% Same Store Revenue Growth in 2015
2.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
Same Store Revenue Growth
Revenue growth in 2015 is attributable to occupancy gains, increased rents and a decrease in incentive offerings.
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0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Historic Change in Same Store Revenue Growth 2010-2015
Average quarterly same store revenue growth of 2.2% from 2010-2015.
Financial & Operating Performance
Three Quarters of Above Average Growth
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Financial & Operating Performance
Improved Occupancy Levels in 2015
94.3% 93.6% 94.2% 95.6% 94.7% 94.9% 94.7% 95.8% 95.5% 95.5% 95.3%
Apartment Quarterly Occupancy Levels
Average apartment
- ccupancy from 2013-
2015 is 94.9%
Same store average rents are up 1.2% over the last year and incentives are down 50 basis points.
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Financial & Operating Performance
Improved Occupancy Levels in 2014 & 2015
60 basis point occupancy improvement in Q3 2015
- Vs. Q3 2014.
92% 93% 94% 95% 96% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Apartment Occupancy by Quarter
2013 2014 2015
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Financial & Operating Performance
$460K Savings in Rental Incentives
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%
Incentives as a Percentage of Rental Revenue
Same Store Apartment Properties
A decrease in incentive offerings has contributed to same store revenue growth.
19 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
$ per GJ
Commodity Charge per GJ
NS Natural Gas NB Natural Gas
Financial & Operating Performance
Lower Natural Gas Prices in 2015 Vs. 2014
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Financial & Operating Performance
Propane Offers Energy Saving Opportunities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40
Aug 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 June 2015 Jul 2015
Percent Savings with Propane Fuel Price /GJ
Per GJ Cost of Propane Vs. Natural Gas1
NS Gas NB Gas Propane NS Savings Potential NB Savings Potential 1) Historic natural gas pricing is based on Killam’s total natural gas costs per month divided by total consumption per month.
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Financial & Operating Performance
Efficiency Projects = Savings
Water Consumption Initiatives
- Installing low-flow toilets will generate annualized savings
and a payback of 2.7 years. Building System Controls
- Installing smart automated controls in the boiler rooms
- f 10 properties, will conserve $75,000 in natural gas
costs each year.
- Payback of 1.7 years.
Efficiency NS Direct Install Program
- Upgrading, in partnership with Efficiency Nova Scotia,
- ver 20,000 LED light bulbs and thousands of low-flow
showerheads in our largest buildings in Halifax will save tenants over $140,000 in electricity costs per year, and Killam over $40,000 in annual water costs.
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Financial & Operating Performance
Water Savings Initiatives Underway
$- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Cumulative Savings
Toilet Installs
Killam’s Low-flow Toilet Installs
Number of Toilet Installs Total Cumulative Savings
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Financial & Operating Performance
Stable Balance Sheet
55.2% 51.6% 52.9% 54.9% 55.4% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3-15
Debt as a % of Total Assets
At Dec 31, except 2015
Sept 30, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Total gross debt as a % of total assets 55.4% 54.9% Mortgage debt as a % of total assets 50.1% 47.6% Weighted average interest rate
- n mortgage debt
3.32% 3.60% Weighted average term to maturity 4.3 years 4.4 years Debt service coverage ratio (rolling 12 months) 1.37 1.34 Interest coverage ratio (rolling 12 months) 2.33 2.21 CMHC-insured apartment mortgages 74% 75%
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Investment Opportunity
- Killam is trading at a discount to net
asset value.
- Stable distributions with improving
payout ratio
- Interest saving opportunities on
refinancings.
- Positioned to benefit from improved
economic growth in Atlantic Canada.
- High quality portfolio with increasing
investment in newer properties and established development program.
- Growth through acquisitions and
development.
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$9.00 $9.50 $10.00 $10.50 $11.00 $11.50 $12.00 $12.50
Killam’s Share Price Vs. Analysts’ NAV Estimate
Share/Unit Price NAV per Analysts
Investment Opportunity
Trading at a Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV)
The average analyst NAV estimate is $12.07 per unit, based on an average cap rate of 5.8%.
Recent KMP.UN trading represents a 17% discount to the average analyst estimate of NAV.
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Investment Opportunity
Stable Distribution & Improving Payout Ratio
$0.56 $0.57 $0.58 $0.58 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% $0.54 $0.55 $0.56 $0.57 $0.58 $0.59 $0.60 $0.61 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* AFFO Payout Ratio
Killam’s Annual Dividend / Distribution
Dividend/Distribution AFFO Payout Ratio*
*The 2015 and 2016 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) payout ratios represents the consensus estimate of 88% and 82% based on the current annual distribution of $0.60.
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4.20% 3.43% 3.64% 2.82% 2.55% 3.79% 3.16% 3.30% 3.33%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 Interest Rate Mortgage Maturities ($M)
Apartment Mortgage Maturities by Year
Mortgage Maturities by Year Refinanced in 2015 Weighted Average Interest Rate
Investment Opportunity
Interest Expense Savings Expected
Current rate for 5-year CMHC insured debt is approximately 1.7%. Current rate for 10-year CMHC insured debt is approximately 2.4%.
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Investment Opportunity
Improved Economics in Atlantic Canada
- 1.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Real GDP Growth Expected in NS & NB
Nova Scotia New Brunswick
Following a period of low to negative Real GDP Growth, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are both expected to experience improved GDP in 2016, as projected by RBC in their December 2015 Provincial Outlook.
Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, December 2015
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Investment Opportunity
Improved Economics in Atlantic Canada
Halifax is expected to have one of the fastest growing economies in Canada, with 3.0% growth expected in 2016, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s autumn 2015 Metropolitan Outlook. Nova Scotia:
- Manufacturing, including shipbuilding
- Construction, including Maritime Link, MacDonald bridge
and multi-family projects
- Increased non-energy exports, including seafood
- Offshore exploration
- Improved net migration
New Brunswick:
- Non-energy exports – food and mining
- Manufacturing – food and forestry
- Construction activity – road and bridge construction
Newfoundland:
- Stabilizing of oil production
- Mining expected to increase from 2015 levels
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Investment Opportunity
Improved Economics in Atlantic Canada
3.8% 8.6% 5.7% 4.6% 5.9% 9.0% 3.0% 3.4% 7.4% 5.4% 4.7% 4.1% 8.5% 3.5%
CMHC Vacancy – Fall 2015 Survey
2014 2015
In their Fall 2015 Rental Market Report, CMHC reporting lower vacancies in five out
- f six of Killam’s markets in Atlantic Canada, vs. an increase in Canada.
Source: CMHC Fall 2015 Rental Market Report
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Investment Opportunity
Halifax Vacancy Down Despite Increased Starts
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Halifax Rental Apartment Starts and Completions
Rental Starts Rental Completions
Source: CMHC
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Investment Opportunity
Increased Rental Demand Driving Multi Starts
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Halifax New Construction by Type
Single Family Home Row & Semi-Detached Total Apartment
Average total starts
- f 2,424 per year
from 1990-2015. Source: CMHC
The breakdown of new starts is changing to included more multi- family units, reflecting demand from the baby boomer generation.
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Investment Opportunity
Growing Portfolio of Newer Properties
Killam is expanding its portfolio of high-quality new properties with developments and acquisitions.
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500
2012 2013 2014
Average Capital Spend Per Unit by Building Age
0 - 10 years 11 - 20 years 21 - 30 years 31 - 40 years 41 + years
The per unit annual capital spend is lower for newer properties. The average spend for newer properties was $575 per unit in 2014, compared to $3,271 per unit for buildings
- ver 40 years old.
33% of Killam’s apartment NOI comes from properties built 2001 or later.
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2016 AFFO/Unit Accretion (Dilution) 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 4.0% (0.40%) (0.40%) (0.40%) (0.40%) (0.40%) 4.5% (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) 5.0% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 5.5% 0.54% 0.54% 0.54% 0.54% 0.54% 6.0% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% NAV/Unit Post Development (assuming $12.00 pre development) 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 4.0% $11.91 $11.87 $11.84 $11.81 $11.77 4.5% $11.97 $11.94 $11.91 $11.87 $11.84 5.0% $12.03 $12.00 $11.96 $11.93 $11.89 5.5% $12.07 $12.04 $12.00 $11.97 $11.94 6.0% $12.11 $12.07 $12.04 $12.01 $11.97 Yield to Construct Yield to Construct Cap Rate Value at Completion Cap Rate Value at Completion
Investment Opportunity
Developments Contribute to AFFO and NAV Growth
An example of the value of development in today’s market: Assumptions:
- 1. Units developed: 100
- 2. Average Rent: $1,600
- 3. Occupancy: 97.5%
- 4. Margin: 70%
- 5. Debt: 55%
- 6. Interest Rate: 2.3%
- 7. KMP.UN Share Price: $10.50
- 8. Cost to Raise Equity: 3%
- 9. NAV/Unit pre development:
$12.00 AFFO/Unit and NAV/Unit Sensitivity:
Killam’s target development yields and post development values are in this range.
35
Developments
Future Development Opportunities
2014 & Q1 2015
Propert y Cit y
Developments Underway The Alexander - Phase 1* Halif ax, NS S
- ut hport - Barringt on S
t reet Halif ax, NS Development Opportunities - 2016 S ilver S pear* Mississauga, ON S aginaw Phase II Cambridge, ON Future Development Opportunities - 2017 and beyond S pring Garden Terrace Land Halif ax, NS The Alexander - Phase 2* Halif ax, NS Carlt on Houses Halif ax, NS Medical Art s (S pring Garden) Halif ax, NS 1335 Hollis S t reet Halif ax, NS Block 4 S t . John's, NL Topsail Road S t . John's, NL Archibald S t reet Monct on, NB Total Development Opportunities * 50%
- wnership
Approved development agreement Fut ure development As of right Fut ure development Fut ure development As of right Approved development agreement Approved development agreement 93
St at us
Under const ruct ion 2017 complet ion Under const ruct ion Q3-16 complet ion In design and approval process In design and approval process 1, 296 40 225 40
Development Pot ent ial in Unit s
110 98 200 80 30 70 240 70
Killam’s portfolio includes land for the development of 1,300 apartment units.
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2015 Developments
Saginaw Gardens, Cambridge, ON
- $25.3 million total
development cost
- 5.8% yield
- 4.75% cap rate for
IFRS
- 122 apartment units
- Completed June
2015
- Fully leased
- Land for an
additional 93 units located beside Saginaw Gardens
37
2015 Developments
Saginaw Gardens, Cambridge, ON
27 one-bedroom units
- average size:
800 sf
- average rent:
$1,170 95 two-bedroom units
- average size:
1,050 sf
- average rent:
$1,520
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2015 Developments
Chelsea Place, St. John’s, NL
2014 & Q1 2015
- 102 units
- $21.8 million ($213,000/door)
- 6% yield
- 5.15% cap rate for IFRS
- Completed March 2015
- 100% leased
39 Building Description: 142 units - 70 rental, 72 condo Ownership: Killam 50%, Urban Capital 50% Start Date: December 2014 Projected Completion: Q3-2016 Location: Downtown Halifax Construction Cost: $14.7 million, $210,000/door (Killam’s cost) Expected Yield: 5.5% Expected Value: 4.75% cap rate
Current Developments
Southport, Halifax, NS
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Current Developments
Southport, Halifax, NS
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Current Developments
The Alexander (Phase I), Halifax, NS
Building Description: 240 units 24 storeys 230 underground parking stalls 6,200 square feet of retail space Ownership: Killam 50%, Partners 50% Start Date: Q4 2015 Projected Completion: 2017 Location: Downtown Halifax across from the waterfront Construction Cost: $35 million, $276,000/ residential door (Killam’s cost) Expected Yield: 5.5% Expected Value: 4.75% cap rate
42
Current Developments
The Alexander (Phase 1), Halifax, NS
Construction of The Alexander began in September 2015.
43
2015 Acquisitions
Brewery Market, Halifax, NS
2014 & Q1 2015
- Acquisition completed March
31, 2015
- $22.3 million for existing
property
- $5.2 million for 50% interest in
land for development
- 240-unit development “The
Alexander” started in August 2015
- Capacity for 40 additional units
The cap rate on the Brewery Market acquisition was 7%. The Alexander will be built beside the existing Brewery Market.
44
2015 Acquisitions
Brewery Market, Halifax, NS
Tracing its roots back to the early 1800s, the Brewery Market has been fully modernized.
45
2015 Acquisitions
Medical Arts Property, Halifax
2014 & Q1 2015
- $8.4 million
- Closed Aug 5, 2015
- Development
potential for up to 200 units
- 18,000 square feet
- f office space at
$25 per square foot (gross)
- Located across
Killam’s Spring Garden Terrace
46
2015 Acquisitions
Medical Arts Property, Halifax
47
2015 Acquisitions
20 Technology Drive, Saint John
- $8.3 million
- Closed June 17, 2015
- 59 units ($140,000 per unit)
- 6.1% cap rate
- Completed in late 2014
- Located beside existing Killam asset
48
2015 Acquisitions
20 Technology Drive, Saint John
2014 & Q1 2015
- Insulated concrete form
(ICF) construction
- 19 one-bedroom units
- 40 two-bedroom units
- Average rent of $1,210
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Contact Information
Philip Fraser President & CEO 902-453-4536 pfraser@killamreit.com Robert Richardson, FCPA, FCA Executive Vice President & CFO 902-442-9001 rrichardson@killamreit.com Dale Noseworthy, CPA, CA, CFA Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Planning 902-442-0388 dnoseworthy@killamreit.com