Investor Presentation 25 October 2006 CEO Presentation Continued - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 25 October 2006 CEO Presentation Continued - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 25 October 2006 CEO Presentation Continued strong results exceeding targets Income up 12% to EUR 5,478m (EUR 4,877m in the first nine months of 2005) Gain on sale of shares in International Moscow Bank (IMB) of
CEO Presentation
3
Continued strong results – exceeding targets
- Income up 12% to EUR 5,478m (EUR 4,877m in the first nine months of 2005)
- Gain on sale of shares in International Moscow Bank (IMB) of EUR 199m included in
the third quarter
- Net profit up 29% to EUR 2,277m (EUR 1,763m)
- Operating profit up 24% to EUR 2,853m (EUR 2,300m)
- Costs up 3%
- Gap between revenue and cost growth 5.1%-points, excl. impact of IMB sale
- Cost/income ratio continued down
- Positive net loan losses of EUR 175m (EUR 130m) – 10th consecutive quarter with
net recoveries
- Earnings per share EUR 0.88 (EUR 0.66), up 33%
- Return on equity 22.6% (18.8%)
4
Organic growth strategy consistently pays off – strong momentum in key growth areas
- Consumer lending up 12%
- Number of credit cards increased by 22%
- SMEs lending up 10%
- Increased cross-selling of Markets’ products to SMEs
- Assets under Management up 10%
- Strong growth in Private Banking
- Net written premiums in Life up 32%
5
- Strong rebound in equity markets and
decreased concern for a hard landing in the US economy
- Market turbulence has had limited
fundamental effects on Nordea
- Macroeconomic outlook for the Nordic
region remains favourable – also in 2007
Robust performance despite volatile markets
Euro Zone, Government Benchmarks, 5 Year, Yield, Average, EUR Nordic Countries, MSCI, Index, Close Source: Reuters EcoWin Jan 06 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Index 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 Percent 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1
6
Operating profit
EURm YoY
- Up 24%
- Up 15% excl. gain from sale of IMB
shares
- Operating profit in BAs up 16% excl.
gain from sale of IMB shares
- Business model and growth strategy
consistently pay off
- Decision to invest in profitable growth
areas, eg long term savings, Growth Plan Sweden and Poland & Baltics
Q3oQ2
- Up 14%
- Down 7% excl. gain from sale of IMB
shares
lower Equity method after disposal sale of Suomen Asiakastieto in Q2 Lower loan loss recoveries in Q3 Adjusting for these effects operating profit is
1% better in Q3
- Best Q3 result ever
688 728 748 858 932 1,063 884 864
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Reported
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB
EUR
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
8
Revenue growth in Nordea
4,877 Income Jan-Sept/06 Volumes, margins lending Savings: AM, Life, brokerage and savings accounts Markets + 10 +142 + 101 Income Jan-Sep/05
EURm
5,478 +149 Other +199 Gain from sale of IMB shares
9
Unchanged cost focus
- Costs up 3%
- In line with increased growth focus
- Approx. half of the cost increase (EUR
45m) related to investments in growth areas
- General wage inflation above 3%
2,712 2,806 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 Jan-Sept/05 Jan-Sept/06 EURm
10
Cost/income ratio continues downwards
- Continued down to 53% in Jan-
Sept/06 (excl. gain from sale of IMB shares)
income up 8% costs up 3% Reported C/I incl. IMB 51%
- Continuous strong growth in
revenues
- Delivery in line with financial targets
60 53 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 Jan-Sept/06 %
*
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
11
Gap between income and cost development
Percentage points
- Reported gap of 9%, excl. full
impact from sale of IMB 5.1%
- Capture profitable revenue
- pportunities
- Top line increasingly contributing
- Maintaining a gap secures delivery
- f net profit and RoE
high value creation
1 7 9 5 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2003 2004 2005 Jan-Sep/06
Gap excl. full impact from sale of IMB shares
12
Key growth areas – progress already visible
- Accelerate market position within consumer credits incl. cards
- Consumer lending up 12%, sale of credit cards up 23%
- Continue to leverage on strong position within long-term savings, eg Private
Banking and Retail funds
- Strong increase in AuM - total net inflow EUR 9.4bn
- Strengthen the position in Sweden – focus on advisory services
- Improved financial performance
- Harness Nordea’s leading position in capital markets – leveraging Nordea’s
customer base. Untapped potential among SMEs
- Stay competitive in mortgage market. Use the mortgage product as a potential
customer acquisition vehicle – case Norway
- Market share of new mortgage lending in Norway 23% Ytd
- Further position Nordea successfully in the Baltics, Poland and Russia
- Lending up 43% in the Baltics and Poland
Increasing the number of core clients
13
140 106 160 114
- No. of customers
(mill.) Volume per customer (EUR'000) Business volumes (EUR bn)
1.3 1.4
Customer programmes - increasing business rewards both customers & Nordea
Strong growth in core segment Sep 05 to Sep 06 6.4% 7.6% 14.6%
- Key focus
converting intermediate customers to core
customers
customer satisfaction and loyalty business volume per customer
- Strong success to date
Increased no. of core customers and business
volumes per customer drive the improved earnings
14
Continue to leverage on strong position within long- term savings – Private Banking
EURbn
- Strong asset growth in Nordic Private
Banking
net inflow in Q3 13% annualised result of roll-out of new common advisory
concepts, particularly in Norway and Sweden
- AuM up 17% YoY
29 31 33 34 36 37 39 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
European private banking Nordic private banking
15
Accelerate market position within consumer lending and cards
EURbn YoY
- Consumer lending up 12%
- Approx. 400 000 new cards issued
- In total 5.4 million cards issued
- f which approx. 27% credit cards
- no. of credit cards up 23%
Q3oQ2
- Consumer lending up 4%
annualised 16%
- Growth strategy and penetration of
customer base is paying off
- Margins basically unchanged
adjusting for business mix
- Card commissions up 4%
12,9 13,2 13,5 13,8 13,9 14,2 14,9 15,4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Retail consumer lending
16
Continue to leverage on strong position within long term savings – stepwise increase in premiums in Life
EURm
- Net written premiums up 32%
- Unit linked share of premiums 40%
- Increased penetration in the customer
base – successful cooperation between Life and Retail
- Nordea’s share of signed agreements in
Mandatory Company Pension (MCP) Norway above 20%
- Market share of new written premiums
- n private market 8.1% in Sweden end
June
590 458 404 607 582 560 454 198 187 174 474 390 404 267
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Traditional insurance Unit linked
17
- To capture growth potential, more than 200 advisors and specialists have
been recruited during the year
- Target areas for new recruitment have been;
Private advisory services in the branches (90) Life & pension (62) Private Banking (20) Corporate advisory services in the branches (37)
- Successful introduction of new employees
- New sales in line with expectations
- New employees contribute to an even more proactive sales culture
- 10 venues and branches will open up during the autumn and beginning of
2007
Growth in Sweden delivering according to targets
18
Increased cross-selling of Markets related products to SMEs
Nordea Markets
- Successful penetration
- Leveraging Nordea’s customer base
SME segment still under penetrated
- Focus on customer solutions rather
than product push
strong concepts in risk management and
asset-liability management
increased capabilities in derivatives
- Revenue increase driven by
structured products still strong and stable core business in F/X
and fixed income trading
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan- Sep/06
Total income Total costs Operating profit
EURm
19
Outlook
Nordea continues its successful execution of the organic growth
strategy
Nordea is confident in reaching the ambition of at least 5 %-points gap
between revenue and cost growth for 2006 even when excluding the impact from the sale of shares in IMB
A cost increase in line with the first three quarters is expected for the
full year 2006
20
Summary
Continued strong result despite fierce competition – exceeding targets
RoE excl. gain from sale of IMB shares 20.7%
Gap between revenue and cost growth 5 percentage points when
excluding the full impact of IMB sale
Improved cost efficiency
Cost/income ratio down to 53% when excluding the sale of IMB shares. Reported C/I 51%
Nordea’s growth strategy is paying off
increasing no. of core customers strong performance in long term savings – especially private banking increased penetration among SME clients with Markets related products lending volumes up from high level growth strategies in Sweden and Poland & Baltics developing well
CFO Presentation
22
Income statement summary
24 2,300 2,853 Operating profit 29 1,763 2,277 Net profit 57 46 72 Equity method 80 227 409 Other income 130 175 Loan losses 3
- 33
3 6 12 30 8 5 Chg %
- 2,712
- 100
- 1,062
- 1,550
4,877 468 1,406 2,730 Jan-Sept 05
- 67
Depreciation
- 1,094
Other expenses
- 2,806
Total operating expenses
- 1,645
Staff costs 5,478 Total operating income 609 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 1,525 Net fee and commission income 2,863 Net interest income Jan-Sept 06 EURm
23
Income statement summary
18 14
- 2
10
- 5
8 158
- 43
5
- 5
2 Chg % 728 932 1,063 Operating profit 563 740 872 Net profit 11 30 17 Equity method 62 98 253 Other income 23 89 55 Loan losses
- 896
- 31
- 345
- 520
1,601 139 469 920 Q3/05
- 945
- 21
- 372
- 552
1,785 179 521 957 Q2/06
- 23
Depreciation
- 355
Other expenses
- 928
Total operating expenses
- 550
Staff costs 1,934 Total operating income 188 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 497 Net fee and commission income 979 Net interest income Q3/06 EURm
24
Net interest income
EURm YoY
- Up 5%
- Up 6% in Business Areas
- Increased contribution from deposits on back
- f higher interest rate level and volume growth
NII from deposits accounts for approx. 17% of
total revenues
- Total lending up 11%
mortgage lending up 13% SME lending up 10%
- Pressure on lending margins
particularly on mortgages in Norway
Q3oQ2
- Up 2%
- Improved deposit margins
- Positive contribution from consumer credits
- Underlying lending growth in BAs up 9%
adjusted for currencies and repos.
- Day effect approx. EUR 10m
913 933 927 957 979 920
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
25
6 4 Treasury 8 22 Other, net (incl. day count effect) 22 133 Total
- 17
- 130
Margin driven
44
- 174
53 184
237
YoY 11
- Deposit margins
- 28
5 20
25
Q3oQ2
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
26
Net commission income
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Savings commissions up 8%
Asset Mgmt commissions up 9% Life insurance up 11% Brokerage up 9%
- Payment commissions up 5%
Cards up 9%
Q3oQ2
- Down 5%
- Brokerage down due to seasonally
low activity and fewer issues of index- linked bonds
- Lower commission from Acquisition
finance
484 529 507 521 497 469
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
27
Breakdown of commission income - gross
281 306 319 338 335 325 301 162 175 177 177 171 183 187 82 90 87 98 88 86 87 51 48 32 59 41 45 36 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Savings related Payments related Lending related Other
EURm
Of which Asset Mgmt Of which Cards
28
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm YoY
- Revenue increase driven by
structured products strong and stable core business in F/X and
fixed income trading
- Net gains/losses in BAs increased by 27%
to EUR 538m
Q3oQ2
- Unchanged in BAs despite seasonal
effects in Q3
- Stable contribution from Group Treasury
134 190 210 164 80
- 20
- 43
32 15 24 159 164
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
29
8 164 15 7 72 70 Q3/06 68 134 23 3 51 57 Q2/05 7 164 17 4 68 75 Q2/06 4 6 10 8 Asset Mgmt 76 74 83 87 CIB
- 15
- 21
- 31
40 Group Treasury 131 159 190 210 BAs 32 83 Q1/06 32 47 Q3/Q5 3 48 Q1/05 33 64 Q4/05 Life Retail Net/gains losses, EURm
Increased revenues from net/gains losses in BAs
30
89
- 33
122 14 32 76
Jan-Sept 2005
120
- 32
152 17 55 80
Jan-Sept 2006
Group Funding Group Investment
- 22
108 35
- 3
76
Jan-Sept 2006
93 29 44 Income
- 2
16 20 Other income
- 21
- 12
- 10
Expenses 58
- 34
Jan-Sept 2006
61
- 48
Jan-Sept 2005
- 29
124
Jan-Sept 2005
Operating profit Net gains/losses Net interest income EURm
Group Treasury
- Strong result in volatile market conditions
annualised investment return in Q3 3.60% compared with funding cost of 3.25%
- perating profit up 35% YoY
31
Total operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 12% reported
- Up 8% excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
- Steady increase in net interest income
lending volume growth compensating for
margin pressure
strong revenue contribution from deposits
- Commission income up 8%
payment commissions up 5% savings commissions up 8%
- Net/gains losses up 30%
strong increase in customer driven businesses
Q3oQ2
- Up 8% reported
- Down 3% excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
lower Equity method after disposal sale of Suomen Asiakastieto in Q2
1,694 1,696 1,759 1,785 1,934 1,601 1734
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
32
Expenses
EURm YoY
- Up 3% - ambition to capture opportunities
in growth markets
- Approx. half of the cost increase (EUR
45m) related to investments within growth areas
Growth Plan Sweden, Life, Poland & Baltics
- Staff costs up 6%
increase of FTEs by approx. 2% general wage increase above 3% increased variable salaries correspond to
1% of increase
- Other expenses incl. depreciations
unchanged
despite higher business volumes
Q3oQ2
- Down 2%
- Staff costs unchanged
- Other expenses incl. depreciations down
4%
515 532 543 552 550 364 345 393 367 372 355 35 31 31 23 21 23 520
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Staff costs Other expenses Depreciation
933 896 914 928 956 945
33
Expense distribution
2,712 Expenses Jan-Sept 06 Cost increases
- adj. for changed
variable salaries and investments in growth areas Increase in variable salaries +27 +22 Expenses Jan-Sept 05 EURm 2,806 *Such as investments in Growth Plan Sweden, Cards, Life, Private Banking Investments in growth areas* +45
34
Staff costs
1,550 Staff costs Jan-Sept 06 Wage increases Increased variable salaries Subtotal Staff costs Increase in FTEs, net +47 +22 1,619 +26 Staff costs Jan-Sept 05
EURm
1,645
- No. of recruited
FTEs: approx. 1,900
- No. of FTEs that
has left: approx. 1,250
35
Number of FTEs
- Strong market growth explains increase in
FTEs
- Shift towards increasing no. of advisors
and sales related FTEs in BAs and falling
- no. of FTEs in processing and staff units
28,730 28,925 29,052 29,201 29,396
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 6,193
- 258
6,289 6,031 Group Functions 22,732 +924 22,441 23,365 BAs 28,925 +666 28,730 29,396 Total
- 10
- 248
+220 +315 +389 Chg YoY 1,192 5,097 1,888 3,287 17,266 Q3/05 1,182 4,849 2,108 3,602 17,655 Q3/06 1,147 5,046 2,033 3,326 17,373 2005 Group Staffs CIB GPT AM & Life Retail FTEs
36
Cost/income ratio continues downwards
- Continued down to 53% in Jan-
Sept/06 (excl. gain from sale of IMB)
income up 8% costs up 3% reported C/I incl. IMB 51%
- Continuous strong growth in
revenues
- Delivery in line with financial targets
60 53 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 Jan-Sept/06 %
*
*Excl. sale of IMB
37
Loan losses
EURm YoY
- Positive loan losses reflecting record
low new provisions coupled with recoveries maintained at a high level
Q3oQ2
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Overall credit quality strong in all
markets
- 23
- 31
- 89
- 55
- 6
- 7
- 101
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
38
0.21 74 416
- 1,188
1,604 Q3/06 0.20 76 405
- 1,272
1,677 Q2/06 0.18 80 341
- 1,371
1,712 Q1/06 0.25 78 449
- 1,545
1,994 Q3/05 0.18 81 339
- 1,481
1,820 Q4/05 Reserves Provisions/impaired loans, gross,% Impaired loans, net/lending,% Impaired loans, net Impaired loans, gross
- EURm. End of period
Impaired loans
- Net impaired loans as per cent of total lending: 21bp
39
Net profit
EURm YoY
- Up 29%, 18% excl. gain from sale of
IMB
Operating profit up 24% Tax rate 22% (23% Ytd 05) following
revaluation of tax asset in Finland
Q3oQ2
- Up 18% incl. IMB gain
- Excl. IMB gain slightly lower
lower loan loss reversals lower Equity method after disposal sale of Suomen Asiakastieto in Q2
563 665 740 872 506 673 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
40 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Reported
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB
EUR
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
41
Return on equity
%
- Higher RoE - 22.6%
20.7% excl. gain from sale of IMB
- At top level among Nordic peers
- RoE well above 2007 target of >17%
18.0 22.6 20.7 18.8 5 10 15 20 25 2005 Jan-Sept/05 Jan-Sept/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
42
Capital position
%
- Tier 1 ratio 6.9%
- Profitable volume growth
- Total capital ratio at 9.5%
7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
43
Risk-weighted assets (RWA)
EURbn YoY
- RWA up 14%
Total lending up 11% Off-balance commitments up 30%
Q3oQ2
- RWA up 3%
Lending up 2%
153 159 162 169 174 180 185
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
44
Return on risk weighted assets, annualised
153 159 162 169 174 180 185 1,29 1,77 1,39 1,20 1,53 1,64 1,46 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2
RWA Return on RWA (net profit, annualised)
EURbn %
*
* Excl. Gain from sale of IMB shares
Business trends
46
2% 10%
– SME lending
- 4%
7%
– CIB lending excl. Markets
0% 10% Deposits, total
18% 13% 8% 12% 13%
10%
YoY
- 2%
– CIB deposits excl. Markets
2%
– SME deposits
2% 4% 3%
1%
Q3oQ2
– Household deposits – Consumer lending** – Mortgage lending
Lending, total
Robust volume growth continues
*Underlying volume growth in business areas more than 2% **Retail consumer lending (collateralised + non-collateralised consumer lending)
*
47
Total lending
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Corporate Housing loans Other loans Public sector
EURbn
148 146 182 149 147 147 156 155 170 161 175 189 199 191 201
48
Household mortgages, volumes and margins
44.3 45.7 48.2 48.9 50.0 52.6 54.5 56.3 57.7 60.4 62.6 64.5 65.8 68.5 70.6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
EURbn %
49
Nordic mortgage market
Nordic trends have converged
margins stable in Denmark at approx. 50bp margins on new lending in Finland and Sweden – show signs of
stabilisation
margins in Norway approaching Nordic average – proactive pricing and
lag effect from central bank hike
Acceptable profitability measured by risk adjusted return. The
mortgage seen as an important customer acquisition vehicle
Revenues from mortgages account for less than 9% of Nordea
revenues
50
- Strong market share growth in
Norway and Denmark
- Nordea prioritising core
customers in Sweden and Finland
- Improved market position in Q3
EURbn FI NO SE DE Market share 31.2% 12.3% 15.6% 15.2% EoP Aug 06 Market share 25.7% 22.5% 12.7% 20.0%
- f new lending Ytd
Mortgage - performance in line with strategy
51
Retail consumer lending, volumes and margins
12,1 12,2 12,4 12,4 12,2 12,5 12,7 12,9 13,2 13,5 13,8 13,9 14,2 14,9 15,4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0,0 0,6 1,2 1,8 2,4 3,0 3,6 4,2 4,8
EURbn %
52
Lending to corporates (SME), volumes and margins
57,3 57,3 57,4 56,7 56,3 58,1 58,5 61,0 64,0 65,3 67,9 70,0 70,9 73,2 73,4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4
EURbn %
53
CIB lending, volumes and margins*
21.7 22.6 21.4 18.4 18.1 20.3 19.0 18.0 21.4 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.6 23.3 22.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
54
Total deposits
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Of which household deposits
EURbn
97 98 92 96 93 91 95 105 105 108 106 116 119 113 119
55
Retail deposits, households, volumes and margins
40,2 40,7 41,7 41,3 40,4 42,3 42,9 43,8 44,1 45,7 46,9 47,0 47,1 49,6 50,1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,4
EURbn %
56
Structural Interest Income Risk (SIIR)
- 165
174 Q3/06
- 182
140 Q3/05
- 189
175 Q2/06 Decreasing market rates, 100bp Increasing market rates, 100bp EURm, annualised effect on NII*
*Approx. end of period SIIR is defined as the effect on net interest income (NII) in the next 12 months if market rates change by one percentage point. Figures are asymmetrical as interest rates on deposits from customers cannot be reduced below 0%. Figures are based on maturity and repricing structure, and the effect going forward will be subject to management decisions and the competitive situation in the market.
- Nordea deposits unchanged in Q3 at EUR 119bn
- Increased rate level reduces SIIR for rates down
57
Retail deposits, SME, volumes and margins
26,2 26,3 26,7 28,3 28,4 28,9 28,8 30,5 29,4 30,1 31,5 33,4 32,6 34,8 34,7 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6
EURbn %
58
CIB, deposits, volumes and margins*
14.4 15.4 13.3 15.2 14.9 17.9 18.0 21.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 22.1 21.2 22.3 21.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
59
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Assets under management
EURbn YoY
- Up 10%
- Strong growth in Private
Banking, up 17%
- Continued growth in Retail
funds, up 9%
- Asset growth from well
diversified sale platforms
Q3oQ2
- Up 3%
158 144 148 153 154
60
- 2
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Net inflows
EURbn
- Net inflow EUR 9.4bn last 12
months
- Net inflow EUR 1.8bn in Q3
- Strong inflow in Nordic Private
Banking and new mandates for Institutional clients
- Inflow of EUR 0.1bn in Retail
funds
- Net outflow from European
Fund Distribution
gross inflow
- utflow from one fund continues
1.8 0.6 0.9 3.4 3.3
61
Retail operating profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Profit up 16%
double digit volume growth increased no. of core customers sales of market related products largely unchanged costs
- Plan to capture untapped potential in
Sweden proceeding well
544 577 600 589 556 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
30 54 Q3/05 32 53 Q3/06 RoEC, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
62
CIB operating profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Profit up 25%
- Strong result in all divisions
- High level of activity in M&A market
- Good result in Markets
strong underlying demand for hedging
products
- Strong volume growth in Poland and
Baltics
125 169 160 145 144 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
21 52 Q3/05 53 29 Q3/06 RoEC, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
*
*Excl. capital gain from sale of IMB shares
63
Asset Management product result
EURm YoY
- Up 24%
- Higher AuM
- Double digit income growth
- Improved income and result margin
- Successful product launches
- Lower transaction fees in Q3
77 93 85 80 96 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
144 51 Q3/05 158 53 Q3/06 AuM, EURbn C/I ratio, % Key ratios
64
Life insurance, product result
EURm YoY
- Net written premiums up 32%
- Unit link premiums up 90%
accounting for 40% of total premiums
- Fee based business model continues
to deliver
65 56 52 61 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
7.1 2.1 Q3/05 8.7 2.7 Q3/06 Financial buffers, % Inv return, % Key ratios
65
Summary
Continued strong result despite fierce competition – exceeding targets
RoE excl. gain from sale of IMB shares 20.7%
Gap between revenue and cost growth 5 percentage points when
excluding the full impact of IMB sale
Improved cost efficiency
Cost/income ratio down to 53% when excluding the sale of IMB shares. Reported Cost/Income 51%
Nordea’s growth strategy is paying off
increasing no. of core customers strong performance in long term savings – especially private banking increased penetration among SME clients with Markets related products lending volumes up from high level growth strategies in Sweden and Poland & Baltics developing well
Facts & figures
67
Facts & Figures, content
Credit quality
Page 75
Economic capital
Page 84
Business areas
Page 87
Balance sheet
Page 114
Market shares
Page 117
Appendix
Page 125
Credit quality
69
Loan portfolio by customer category*
85 84 82 78 79 83 80 84 91 93 97 100 101 105 105 44 46 48 49 50 53 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 68 71 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Corporate lending Housing loans Other loans
EURbn * Excluding public sector
70
Public sector 2.0% Companies 44.9% Household customers 53.1% Companies 45.7% Public sector 1.9% Household customers 52.4%
End Q3/05, EUR 182.1bn End Q3/06, EUR 201.1bn
Loan portfolio by customer group
71
Housing loans 76.6% Other loans 23.4%
Lending to household customers
End of Q3/06 EUR 91.9bn
- Other loans comprise
- consumer credits
- investment credits
- car financing
- verdraft facilities
- credit cards
- home equity credits
72
Commerce and services 5% Finance 10% Transport and communication 14% Shipping & Offshore 12% Agriculture & Fishing 8% Other companies 10% Renting, consulting and other services 11% Manufactoring 14% Real estate 27% Construction 9%
Lending to companies by industry
End of Q3/06 EUR 105.5bn
73
201.1 5.3 6.1 13.7 12.5 8.4 14.6 10.8 5.9 3.3 28.6 91.9 Q3/06 198.8 5.2 5.8 14.5 12.0 9.6 14.5 10.4 5.8 3.6 28.0 89.4 Q2/06 190.7 5.4 5.7 15.1 10.4 8.7 14.0 9.9 5.8 2.9 26.8 86.0 Q1/06 182.1 4.8 5.8 12.8 6.1 14.6 12.6 9.9 5.1 3.1 25.6 81.7 Q3/05 188.4 5.3 5.8 14.6 9.6 10.5 13.4 9.9 5.6 2.9 26.2 84.6 Q4/05 Total Shipping & Offshore Agriculture & Fishing Other companies/public sector Renting, Consulting and other services Finance Manufacturing Trade and services Transport, communication Construction Real estate Household customers EURbn
Loan portfolio in figures
74
Nordic countries and P&B 93.2% Other non OECD 0.5% USA 1.1% Latin America 0.6% Other EU countries 3.2% Other 6.8% Other OECD 0.3% Asia 1.1%
Lending by geographical area
End of Q3/06 EUR 201.1bn
Nordic countries and P&B, EURbn
- Sweden
55.5
- Denmark
54.9
- Finland
41.8
- Norway
32.5
- P&B
4.2
75
4 1 5 Public sector 9 8 17 Shipping & Offshore 13 28 42 Construction 11 37 48 Transport, communication 12 104 115 Agriculture & Fishing 16 125 141 Renting, Consulting and other services 44 131 175 Other companies 41 119 161 Trade and services 37 277 314 Manufacturing 1,188 20 91 245 Provisions 1,604 28 127 431 Gross 416 7 36 186 Net Total Finance Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q3/06
Impaired loans
76
Loan losses
EURm 192 156 92 58 86
- 215
- 163
- 123
- 147
- 140
- 23
- 7
- 31
- 89
- 54
- 300
- 250
- 200
- 150
- 100
- 50
50 100 150 200 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Gross Reversals Net
YoY
- Positive loan losses reflecting record
low new provisions coupled with recoveries maintained at a high level
Q3oQ2
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Overall credit quality strong in all
markets
Economic capital
78
Economic capital (EC)
EURbn 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
1,007 Life 1,924 CIB 162 Asset Mgmt 356 126 Treasury GPT 17 Other 5,712 Retail Banking 9,305 Q3/06 Total EC per business area (EURm)
79
Economic capital – distribution
End of Q3/06
Life risk 1% Market risk 15% Operational risk 9% Business risk 12% Credit risk 63% Other 2% CIB 21% Treasury 4% Asset Mgmt & Life 12% Retail 61%
Retail Banking
81
Retail Banking lending and deposit volumes
23.9 14.3 25.0 21.6 Q3/06 23.9 14.2 25.0 21.4 Q2/06 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 Norway 21.8 24.1 20.5 Q1/06 22.4 24.8 20.3 Q4/05 21.3 23.9 20.6 Q3/05 20.8 23.4 18.1 Q1/05 20.6 24.0 19.3 Q2/05 18.3 Denmark 21.8 23.7 Q4/04 Sweden Finland Deposits, EURbn 48.8 27.4 38.6 48.7 Q3/06 49.1 26.8 37.7 47.5 Q2/06 20.4 21.8 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 Norway 46.5 36.4 45.5 Q1/06 46.1 35.6 45.1 Q4/05 45.2 34.8 43.2 Q3/05 43.3 33.8 41.3 Q2/05 44.0 33.0 38.5 Q1/05 37.4 Denmark 42.6 31.6 Q4/04 Sweden Finland Lending, EURbn
82
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.3 16.5 17.7 Q3/06 4.2 16.0 17.5 Q2/06 4.0 15.5 16.9 Q1/06 3.9 15.2 16.4 Q4/05 3.8 14.8 16.2 Q3/05 3.7 13.6 15.7 Q1/05 3.8 14.2 15.9 Q2/05 14.7 Corporate 3.6 13.3 Q4/04 Consumer lending Households mortgages Finland, EURbn 6.3 21.8 19.1 Q3/06 6.0 20.8 18.2 Q2/06 5.8 20.3 18.2 Q1/06 5.8 19.6 18.1 Q4/05 5.8 18.8 17.0 Q3/05 5.5 17.2 14.7 Q1/05 5.7 17.9 16.1 Q2/05 14.3 Corporate 5.3 16.8 Q4/04 Consumer lending Household mortgages Denmark, EURbn
83
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
3.7 19.5 24.0 Q3/06 3.6 19.2 24.8 Q2/06 3.4 18.3 23.5 Q1/06 3.4 18.0 23.5 Q4/05 3.3 17.4 23.2 Q3/05 3.3 16.6 22.9 Q1/05 3.3 16.6 22.2 Q2/05 21.6 Corporate 3.4 16.4 Q4/04 Consumer lending Household mortgages Sweden, EURbn 1.0 14.0 12.7 Q3/06 1.0 13.3 12.7 Q2/06 0.9 12.8 12.3 Q1/06 0.9 12.4 12.0 Q4/05 0.8 11.9 11.5 Q3/05 0.7 10.5 10.6 Q1/05 0.8 11.4 11.1 Q2/05 10.4 Corporate 0.6 10.1 Q4/04 Consumer lending Household mortgages Norway, EURbn
84
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.7 9.9 7.4 Q3/06 7.5 10.1 7.4 Q2/06 7.2 9.9 7.0 Q1/06 7.1 10.4 7.2 Q4/05 6.6 10.4 7.0 Q3/05 6.5 9.9 6.9 Q1/05 6.6 10.3 7.2 Q2/05 7.0 Corporate 7.1 9.6 Q4/04 Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Finland, EURbn 9.9 3.3 8.3 Q3/06 9.9 3.4 8.0 Q2/06 9.5 3.1 7.8 Q1/06 9.4 3.2 7.8 Q4/05 9.5 3.1 8.0 Q3/05 9.0 3.1 7.2 Q2/05 8.4 2.9 6.8 Q1/05 7.2 Corporate 8.1 2.9 Q4/04 Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Denmark, EURbn
85
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.8 5.5 10.6 Q3/06 7.4 5.4 11.1 Q2/06 6.7 5.0 10.1 Q1/06 6.3 5.0 11.0 Q4/05 6.8 5.0 9.6 Q3/05 6.4 4.9 9.5 Q1/05 6.5 4.8 9.4 Q2/05 10.6 Corporate 6.3 4.9 Q4/04 Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Sweden, EURbn 3.8 2.1 8.3 Q3/06 3.7 2.2 8.3 Q2/06 3.7 2.0 7.7 Q1/06 3.7 1.8 7.4 Q4/05 3.9 1.7 6.9 Q3/05 3.8 1.7 6.3 Q2/05 3.6 1.4 6.2 Q1/05 5.7 Corporate 3.5 1.4 Q4/04 Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Norway, EURbn
86
Retail Banking margins
1.69 1.03 3.53 0.63 0.95 Q3/06 1.66 1.02 3.61 0.70 0.98 Q2/06 0.93 0.92 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.75 Mortgages, households 4.18 4.07 4.04 3.81 3.74 3.66 Consumer loans, households 1.62 1.01 1.00 Q1/06 1.55 1.05 1.04 Q4/05 1.56 1.06 1.06 Q3/05 1.55 0.86 1.13 Q1/05 1.53 1.06 1.09 Q2/05 1.13 Lending to SME’s 1.58 0.92 Q4/04 Deposits, households Deposits, SME’s %
Payments & transactions
88
E-banking customers, all customers
E-banking customers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feb-00 June- Oct-00 Feb-01 June- Oct-01 Feb-02 June-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Mill.
E-banking payments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Mill.
89
Cards, all customers
Issued debit and credit cards
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-01 May-01 Sept-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sept-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06
Debit cards Credit cards
Mill.
Card payments
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Mill.
90
Payment transactions, households
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06
Manual transactions Payment ATMs Card payments Cash withdrawal ATMs Direct debit Netbank payments
91
Payment transactions, households
941.0 124.6 81.4 125.0 514.9 12.6 82.5
Jan-Sept 2006
78.2 97.6 117.3 139.3 155.7 E-banking payments 898 961 1,026 1,109 1,187 Total 78.5 207.2 333.5 34.3 166.2
2001
81.5 204.4 395.5 31.7 150.6
2002
86.1 197.4 459.9 27.1 137.7
2003
527.8 603.6 Card payments 23.6 19.7 Payterminals 129.1 124.6 Manual transactions 190.4 181.7 Cash withdrawal ATM 101.2
2005
98.5
2004
Direct debit Mill.
Corporate and Institutional Banking
93
CIB lending and deposit volumes and margins
0.83 31.1 3.8 9.1 1.3 12.0 Q3/06 0.87 32.3 3.7 9.1 1.5 12.7 Q2/06 0.93 32.2 3.4 8.6 2.0 12.0 Q1/06 0.96 32.4 3.3 8.5 1.7 11.1 Q4/05 0.86 32.5 2.5 7.7 2.0 12.0 Q2/05 0.91 32.2 2.8 8.1 1.8 10.9 Q3/05 26.6 30.9 Total* 2.4 2.3 Poland and Baltic 10.8 12.8 Corporate Banking Division 0.94 6.5 2.0 Q1/05 5.9 International and Shipping Division 1.4 Financial Institutions Division Q4/04 Lending, EURbn 0.98 Margins**, % * Incl. Markets volumes ** Excl. Markets and Poland & Baltics 0.38 25.1 2.0 3.8 11.3 6.7 Q3/06 0.37 26.4 1.9 4.5 10.3 7.5 Q2/06 0.37 25.7 1.8 4.3 10.4 6.6 Q1/06 0.40 26.8 1.8 4.3 10.9 7.0 Q4/05 0.40 24.7 1.4 3.6 8.8 8.0 Q2/05 0.39 23.3 1.5 3.6 8.6 6.3 Q3/05 24.9 26.7 Total* 1.3 1.3 Poland and Baltic 9.1 8.9 Corporate Banking Division 0.37 3.2 11.1 Q1/05 3.0 International and Shipping Division 9.0 Financial Institutions Division Q4/04 Deposits, EURbn 0.38 Margins**,%
94
Nordea operations in Poland and the Baltic countries
13** 5 1 5 4 Operating profit (Q3), EURm 1.1 % 3.1 % 3.6 % 4.9 % Market share, deposits, % 18 1.7 % 1,091 1,478 1,808 847 41 351,600 Poland 6 5 3 Country position, overall 1,679 186 325 309 Number of FTEs 81 10 16 14 Branches/salespoints 1,204,750* 33,150 39,550 51,450 Customers 5,089 801 1,279 1,202 Total assets, EURm 7.5 % 366 1,195 Latvia 9.7 % 333 1,061 Estonia 6.1 % 277 721 Lithuania Market share, lending, % 2,068 Deposits, EURm 4,454 Commitments***, EURm Total End of Q3/06
* Incl. Polish Life customers *’ Difference compared to summary of country result is explained by booking of provisions *** Includes guarantees
Asset Management & Life Insurance
96
* All funds targeted at Nordic Retail segment. ** Includes EUR 4.9bn in pension pools products
Breakdown of AuM by market and channels
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Europe North America Retail funds*
(sold through
- wn distribution)
Fund sales through third-parties Private Banking Institutional customers Total by market Q2/06 EURbn 158.4 36.0 17.7 6.8 1.7 18.5
- 5.2
- 16.6
14.6 1.8 8.7
- 10.9
4.2 3.8 2.9 2.7 0.5 18.1** 8.6** 4.7**
- 5.8
3.6** 1.0 63.3 34.2 12.0 30.8 17.6 0.5 25.0 47.5 5.2 44.7 Life & Pensions
97
Asset Management – margins*
Bps Q3oQ2
- Income margin down 2bp,
which can be a ascribed to lower and more
normalised transaction income
- Operating expenses margin in line
with last quarter
- Result margin unchanged
- Unchanged asset mix
63 71 70 66 64
- 20
- 22
- 22
- 21
- 21
30 37 35 32 30
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Income margin Operating expenses margin Result margin
*Margins calculated using average AuM for Asset Management Activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities. In Q3 these assets were EUR 106.8bn. Volumes used for calculating margins have been restated compared to previously reported figures. Non-income generating mandates of EUR 9bn have been deducted.
98
Asset structure*
Q3/06
Nordic fixed income 46% Int'l. equities 27% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 13%
*Average AuM for Asset Management activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities, in Q3 this was EUR 106.8bn
Q3/05
Nordic fixed income 44% Int'l. equities 29% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 13%
99
European fund distribution
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Inflow AuM
EURbn
100
Life - breaking out profit drivers
- Fee based on size of life provisions in “with profit” companies – DK, FI
- Profit-sharing from the Norwegian business (existing model, change pending)
- 25% of surplus/deficit from cost result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- 25% of surplus/deficit from risk result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- Investment return from separated shareholders’ equity (DK, SE)
- Health and accident result, holding company result etc.
- Net unit-linked result including unit-linked cost/risk result
- Commissions paid to Retail Banking less distribution cost in Retail Banking
Fee contribution Contribution from cost result Contribution from risk result
- Inv. return on
shareholders’ equity Other profits Unit-linked Retail commission and distribution cost
101
Life - profit drivers
267 454 720 37 61
- 4
14 51 5 6 6 34 Q3/06 404 560 964 35 52
- 4
13 43 5 1 6
- 4
35 Q2/06 390 582 972 30 56
- 4
13 47 5 7
- 1
36 Q1/06 474 607 1,081 29 56
- 3
10 49 6 1 10
- 1
33 Q4/05 24 Of which income within Retail Key figures 577 Premiums written, net of reinsurance 404 Here of from Traditional business 174 Here of from Unit-linked business 65
- 4
9 60 7 3 7 43 Q3/05 Total Profit Unit linked Traditional insurance Other profits Estimated distribution cost in Retail
- Inv. return on Shareholders Equity
Total Profit Traditional Total product result Contribution from risk result Contribution from cost result Fee contribution/profit sharing EURm
102
Life – net written premiums by market
720 97 95 151 134 244 Q3/06 964 124 153 221 205 262 Q2/06 68 254 151 Sweden 33 111 107 Other 577 1,081 972 Total 90 147 236 Norway 222 296 237 Denmark 164 273 241 Finland Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 EURm
103
Life, investments
EURbn
- Equities
predominantly listed equities 1/3 Nordic, 2/3 international
- Bonds
¾ Nordic issuers primarily govmn’t & mortgage inst.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
Equities Real Estate Alternative investments Bonds Unit linked
29,1 29,9 30,5 30,3 31,1
104
Life - asset allocation
19 21 30.3 31.1 Total 6 17 21 27 Q3/06 Equities, % 6 16 19 25 Q2/06 3.2 4.5 8.1 13.6 Q2/06 Q3/06 3.4 Sweden 4.4 Norway 8.3 Finland 14.0 Denmark Total, EURbn
105
Life - solvency situation
End of Q3/06 215 77 144 67 Sweden** 333 536 766 230 Finland 122 109 614 505 Denmark 208 157 302 145 Norway* Solvency in % of requirement Solvency buffer Actual solvency Required solvency EURm
* Excluding unit linked company ** Nordea Life Sweden I
106
Life – solvency sensitivity
End of Q3/06 215 208 333 122 Solvency in % of requirement 212 208 270 122 Equities drop 12% 211 208 359 119 Interest rates down 50bp 208 Norway 197 Sweden 124 Denmark Finland 308 Interest rates up 50bp
107
Life – financial buffers
8.7 8.3 4.6 5.3 11.7 Q3/06 1,901 139 157 286 1,318 Q3/06 12.0 189 Sweden
% of total provisions EURm
9.0 1,909 Total 4.2 222 Finland 12.4 1,352 Denmark 4.1 146 Norway Q2/06 Q2/06
108
Life – buffers in different scenarios
End of Q3/06
EURm
139 157 286 1,318 Financial buffers, actual 124 81 141 1,069 Equities drop 12% 78 162 345 1,213 Interest rates down 50bp 152 Norway 190 Sweden 1,398 Denmark Finland 229 Interest rates up 50bp
Balance sheet
110
Balance sheet
325,549 12,960 21,386 7,822 28,602 82,609 26,830 115,550 29,790 325,549 69,355 28,876 188,460 31,578 7,280 31 Dec 2005 12,868 14,336 Total equity 320,098 328,705 Total assets 36,154 35,431 Deposits by credit institutions 107,953 119,074 Deposits and borrowings from the public 25,944 29,744 Liabilities to policyholders 73,702 78,595 Debt securities in issue 328,705 19,193 8,202 24,130 68,612 24,419 201,126 27,244 7,304 30 Sept 2006 320,098 23,490 8,299 31,688 67,793 32,282 181,920 24,521 13,582 30 Sept 2005 Other liabilities Other assets Derivatives Subordintated liabilities Loans and receivables to credit institutions Derivatives Loans and receivables to the public Total liabilites and equity Treasury bills and other eligible bills EURm
111
Capital base
185,052 16,192 168,860 9.5% 17,613
- 173
- 1,535
812 6,617 6,9% 12,704
- 1,001
- 1,765
- 275
1,457 14,288 Q3/06 180,382 15,252 165,130 9.3% 16,784
- 290
- 1,535
812 6,410 6.8% 12,199
- 634
- 1,800
- 304
1,458 13,479 Q2/06 173,618 16,312 157,306 9.4% 16,284
- 276
- 1,537
827 6,376 6.8% 11,721
- 1,210
- 1,795
- 308
1,462 13,572 Q1/06 14,399 15,545 RWA market risk
- 282
- 279
Deductions for other investments 16,009 15,486 Total capital base 9.9% 9.2% Total capital ratio 833 837
- of which perpetual subordinated loans
169,028 153,483
- 1,535
5,862 6.8% 11,438
- 831
- 1,794
- 327
1,472 12,918 Q4/05 162,394 147,995
- 1,535
6,445 7.0% 11,381
- 696
- 1,804
- 460
1,395 12,946 Q3/05 RWA credit risk Tier 1 capital Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 2 capital Deductions for investments in ins. companies Hybrid capital loans Goodwill Other items net Deferred tax assets Total RWA Core equity EURm
Market shares
113
Market position in Nordic markets
9.5% 11.1% 30.8% 14.8%
- consumer lending
3.7% 10.6% 30.3% 14.7% Life & Pensions (end June) 14.0% 16.8% 34.7% 19.9%
- lending
19.9% 15.8% 41.9% 25.3%
- deposits
17.8% 8.3% 32.9% 21.7%
- deposits
15.6% 12.3% 31.2% 15.2%
- mortgage lending
2.3% 13.6% Sweden 2.8% 8.3% Norway 4.2% 26.7% Finland 7.7% 19.8% Denmark Corporate customers Brokerage (Ytd 2006 - Sept) Investment funds Personal customers Market shares
* Statistics mainly from August 2006
114
Personal customer deposits - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600
Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500 600
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
115
Corporate deposits - market volume & share
5 10 15 20 25 30
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 100 200 300 400
J u n
- 3
A u g
- 3
O c t
- 3
D e c
- 3
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 100 200 300 400 500
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500 600
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
116
Personal customer lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 100 200 300 400 500
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
A u g
- 3
O c t
- 3
D e c
- 3
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400
Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
117
Mortgage lending households - market volume & share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 200 400 600 800 1000
A u g
- 3
O c t
- 3
D e c
- 3
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
200 400 600 800 1000
Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 10 20 30 40 50 60
Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35%
118
Corporate lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250
Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-06 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
A u g
- 3
O c t
- 3
D e c
- 3
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500 600
Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
Appendix
120
Ratings
AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank AB A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ Short S&P AAA AAA AA- AA- AA- Long Long Short Long Short A1 P-1 Norgeskreditt Aaa Nordea Kredit Aaa Nordea Hypotek* AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank N AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank F AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank D Fitch Moody’s
*Covered bond rating
121
Total Shareholder Return (TSR),%
Nordea peer group* 1/1-06 – 29/9-06
4 4 5 8 8 8 9 9 11 14 18 19 20 21 23 29 41 26 14 17
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 SHB SWEDBANK COMMERZBANK RBOS ERSTE BANK DANSKE BANK KBC ABN AMRO HBOS DnB NOR BARCLAYS UNICREDITO LLOYDS TSB BANK OF IRELAND ALLIED IRISH BANK NORDEA SEB SOCIETE GENERALE BNP PARIBAS HYPOVEREINSBANK
% *As defined by Nordea
122
Largest registered shareholders, end of Q3/2006
0.5 12.3 Govt of Singapore Inv Corp 1.8 46.3 AMF Pension 1.5 38.1 Nordea Funds 1.3 34.4 Skandia Life Insurance 1.0 25.5 Second Swedish National Pension Fund 1.0 24.9 First Swedish National Pension Fund 0.8 20.2 Third Swedish National Pension Fund 0.4 9.8 ABU Dhabi 0.5 13.1 Franklin-Templeton Funds 44.8 1,161.2 Total for the 20 largest shareholders 2.7 69.7 Robur Funds 2.7 69.6 Alecta 19.9 515.6 Swedish state 4.0 102.5 Nordea Danmark fund 2.3 60.9 SBH/SPP Funds 1.9 49.1 SEB Funds 0.7 18.0 Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund 0.6 16.6 AMF Pension Funds 0.4 9.9 Skandia Funds 0.5 12.1 Länsförsäkringar Funds 0.5 12.7 Nordea Profit Sharing Foundation % Number of shares Shareholder
123
3.97 2.21 4.48 2.85 4.08 2.89 3.94 2.76 30-06-06 3.93 2.54 4.42 3.06 3.99 3.24 3.84 3.05 30-09-06
- 0.04
0.33
- 0.05
0.21
- 0.09
0.35
- 0.10
0.29 Change Q3/06 Short, SE Long, SE Short, NO Long, NO Long, DK Short, DK Long, EUR (5 years) Short, EUR (one week) %
Market development – interest rates
124
Macro data – Nordic market
% 2006e 2007e 2008e Gross domestic product DK 2.5 1.9 2.0 FI 4.4 2.7 2.9 NO 3.1 2.3 2.4 SE 4.2 2.9 2.5 Inflation DK 2.0 2.0 1.9 FI 1.7 1.6 1.6 NO 2.6 1.4 2.1 SE 1.4 2.0 2.1 Private consumption DK 2.5 2.0 1.9 FI 3.6 2.2 2.6 NO 3.1 2.6 2.4 SE 3.3 3.0 2.2 Unemployment DK 4.6 4.5 4.5 FI 7.9 7.4 7.3 NO 3.4 3.0 3.0 SE 5.4 5.0 4.8
Source: Nordea Markets Economic Outlook September 2006. In Norway, forecasts are for mainland GDP
125
Financial calendar 2007
Q4 report 2006 will be published on 21 February