Investor Presentation 19 July 2007 CEO Presentation Growth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 19 July 2007 CEO Presentation Growth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 19 July 2007 CEO Presentation Growth strategy consistently delivers strong results Income EUR 3,830m, up 8% (EUR 3,534m in the first half year of 2006) Costs EUR 2,000m, up 6% (EUR 1.878m) Profit before loan
CEO Presentation
3
Income EUR 3,830m, up 8% (EUR 3,534m in the first half year of 2006) Costs EUR 2,000m, up 6% (EUR 1.878m) Profit before loan losses EUR 1,830m up 11% (EUR 1,656m) Risk-adjusted profit EUR 1,197m, up 17% (EUR 1,024m) Operating profit EUR 1,873m, up 5% (EUR 1.780m) Net profit EUR 1,517m, up 8% (EUR 1,405m) Return on equity 19.5% (21.2%) Cost/income down to 52% (53%) Positive net loan losses of EUR 41m (EUR 120m) Earnings per share EUR 0.58, up 8% (EUR 0.54)
Growth strategy consistently delivers strong results
4
On the route to Great Nordea
Values High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-orientated culture Profit orientation Operating model
5
1,780 1,898 1,873 1,957 1,734
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Operating income up 8% H1 2007
EURm YoY
- Continued growth in Net interest income
– up 9%
- Double-digit lending growth compensating for margin
pressure
- Increased deposit volumes and improved margins
- Net commissions income up 5%
- Revenues from savings increasingly appearing on all key
lines in the income statement
- Strong increase in Net gains/losses – up
21%
- Continued successful penetration of the SME segment
Q2oQ1
- Up 4%
- Net interest income up 4%, increased business volumes and
stable margins
- Net gains/losses up 9%
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
*
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
6
Moderate cost increase while investing in future growth
6.5% 5.9% 5.1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Reported
- Excl. banking operations
in Russia
- Excl. banking operations
in Russia and variable salaries
YoY
- Expense growth on track to meet full
year target
- Unchanged cost focus in parallel
with growth ambitions
- Moderate cost growth despite
increasing wage inflation and growth investments
6.3% 5.4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Q107/Q106 Q207/Q206
Cost growth according to plan Cost increase H107/H106
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
7 835 882 881 949 806
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Profit before loan losses up 11% H1 2007
EURm
- Strong contribution from all Business
Areas – driven by revenue generation
- Consistent delivery of growth initiatives
combined with maintained cost focus
- Nordea’s best quarter ever
- Excl. one-off gain from sale of IMB Q3/06
*
* Excl. full impact from sale of IMB
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
8
5.4 2.6 4.2 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q1/07 H1/07 Q2/07
Gap between income and cost growth
- n track
%-points
- Gap of 2.6%-points in H107 – excl.
banking operations in Russia
- Income up 8.5%
- Expenses up 5.9%
- Improved gap in Q2 vs Q1– in line with
full year expectations
- 4.2%-points in Q2 following strong revenue growth
- Unchanged outlook for full year excl.
banking operations in Russia gap of 3-4%-points
- Incl. banking operations in Russia this corresponds to a
forecasted gap in the area of 2-3%-points
* Adjusted for banking operations in Russia
* * * *
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
9
Cost/income ratio continued down
- Strong revenue generation
- Moderate cost growth despite high
activity level
- Continued productivity gains
64 60 56 53 52 63 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 H1/07 %
*
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
10
Continued recoveries and limited new provisions in H1
Credit quality remains stable cross sectors– improved corporate rating
13 quarters with net recoveries
EUR 41m in H107 Total allowances amount to approx. EUR 940m
Well diversified lending portfolio
54% corporate and 46% household customers 90% of lending in Nordic countries
- 89
- 82
- 13
- 28
- 55
- 100
- 90
- 80
- 70
- 60
- 50
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 1,266 1,118 1,032 941 1,188
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Net loan losses, EURm Total allowances EURm
Strong and well diversified credit portfolio
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
11
Basel II approval in place for “Corporate and Institutions”
Nordea’s IRB model approved
Corporate and Institutions Covering approx. 50% of Nordea’s total credit portfolio
Standardised model for Retail portfolio RWA reduced by approx. 12% following the approval; limited to approx.
6% due to floor rules
Next steps in Basel II implementation
Retail portfolio under IRB foundation Corporate and institutions under IRB advanced
Excess capital will over time be returned to shareholders
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Profit orientation Operating model
12
Ambitious financial targets
Long term financial targets Target Total Shareholder Return (%) In the top quartile of European peer group Risk adjusted profit (EUR m) In line with top Nordic peers Return on Equity (%) Double in 7 years Capital structure policy Policy Dividend payout-ratio > 40% of net profit Tier 1 capital ratio > 6.5%
High ambitions Growth strategy Profit orientation Operating model Strong customer-oriented culture
13
3.7
- 25
- 15
- 5
5 15 25 35 45
Bank of Irland Hbos Allied Irish Bank Danske DnB NOR SHB Barclays Santander Erste Bank Swedbank Lloyds Unicredito SEB Nordea RBOS BNP Societe Generale KBC Commerzbank ABN Amro
%
Top quartile
Total shareholder return (TSR)
Jan – June 2007
High ambitions Growth strategy Profit orientation Operating model Strong customer-oriented culture
14
Risk Adjusted Profit up 17% H1 2007
- Doubling of risk adjusted profit in 7
years implies a 10% growth in profit every year
- Strong revenue generation – organic
growth strategy pays off
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 EURm 10 20 30 % Risk adjusted profit Quarterly growth
High ambitions Growth strategy Profit orientation Operating model Strong customer-oriented culture
15
22.6 23.6 18 21.5 22.4 17.8 21.1 20.2 19.7
5 10 15 20 25 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Nordea Average Nordic Peers (Danske, SEB, SHB, Sw edbank, DnBNor)
Return on equity (ROE) – Nordic Peers
%
- Nordea’s RoE consistently above
Nordic average
- Combined focus on
- Organic growth
- Operational efficiency
- Capital management
- H1 2007 19.5%
High ambitions Growth strategy Profit orientation Operating model Strong customer-oriented culture
16
Growth strategy continues to pay off
Increase business with existing customers - product areas in focus Next level of operational efficiency
Future branch Nordea Transformation Program Long term savings Consumer credits and Cards Life insurance Capital markets products Growth Plan Sweden Russia, Poland & Baltic's
Each focus area has clearly identified initiatives
Geographical markets in focus
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
Private Banking Gold customers Small & Medium Enterprises
Migrate customers up the segments - segments in focus Harmonise sales processes, product deliveries and IT platforms
17
Increasing number of customers in premium segments drives income growth
69 72 73 75 81 83 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
- Strong growth in business with
Gold customers generated by
Increased number of Gold
customers
Increase in volume per customer
Number of Private Banking customers up 15% Q2/Q2
Increase in Private Banking customers
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
Gold segment YoY
15.2%
146 67 169 71
- No. of customers
(m) Volume per customer (EUR'000) Business volumes (EUR bn)
2.2 2.4
8.4% 6.3% 15.2%
18
Continued revenue growth in all Retail corporate segments
11% 5% 8%
Small Medium Large
Income growth YoY
- Strong revenue growth in all Retail
corporate segments
- Accelerating revenue growth Q2/Q1
- Increase in both lending and deposits as well as
cross-selling of Markets products
- Potential to increase revenues in all
segments – in particular small and medium segments
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
19
Successful penetration of SME segment
50 57 56 65 43 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Total revenues in Markets related to Retail corporate clients Total revenues from Acquisition Finance and Corporate Finance
- Increased penetration of Retail
corporates of products from Nordea Markets
Strong growth in sale of structured products
and equity products
- Revenues from Acquisition Finance
and Corporate Finance up 62% YoY in Retail
- Successful penetration of Nordea’s
large corporate customer base
23 25 46 40 23
10 20 30 40 50 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207
EURm EURm
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
20
Further strengthened position within long term savings
Accumulated net inflow (EURbn)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Nordea Average net inflow Nordic peers
- Net inflow in H1 2007 EUR 1.3bn
- Outflow in Q2 mainly on institutional clients
- Strongest inflow within Private Banking
- Approx. 10% of assets are in new and
re-engineered products
- Strong investment performance
- Improved income and result margin
- Income margin in Q2 72bps (67bps)
- Changed product mix from bonds to equities
- In total EUR 165bn in AuM
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
21
Improved market position within consumer lending and cards
YoY
- Consumer lending up 14%
Non-collateralised up 17% Strong growth in home equity products
- 540,000 new cards issued
Of which approx. 300,000 credit cards, up
43% Q2/Q2
- In total 5.9 million cards outstanding
Q2oQ1
- Consumer lending up 3%
- Card commission gross up 21%
Margin EURbn
%
Lending
Retail consumer lending
14.9 15.4 15.6 16.4 16.9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6
Volume Margin
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
22
Profitability in Life continues to improve
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q104 Q204 Q304 Q404 Q105 Q205 Q305 Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 EURm 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 EURm-GWP Product result GWP
- Product result up by 29% Q2/Q2 and
16% YoY
- Swedish Life market still effected by
the regulatory changes*
- Stable growth in Gross written
premiums
Strong sales in Denmark and Poland
Life product result and 12-month rolling Gross Written Premiums (GWP)
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
* Termination of the sale of the ”Kapitalpension” product and a temporary stop for transfer of customer’s insurance capital from one provider to another
23
Strong revenue growth in Nordea Markets
153 194 180 229 242 242
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 Q1/05 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Total revenues Nordea Markets
- Customer activity continues at high
level
All segments showing high business
activity
Equity products – driven by securities
finance and derivatives activities
Structured products at all time high
- Increased cross-selling of Markets
products to SMEs – still room for increased penetration
EURm
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
24
Growth plan in Sweden well on track
- Number of Gold customers up 6% in Q2
annualised – accelerating growth rate since launch of growth plan
- Growth Plan Sweden focuses on
advisory services and product segments with growth potential
- 300 advisors recruited and trained since 2005, mainly
advisors and specialists serving high end segments
- Initiative during 2006 to extend the opening hours in the
branches
- 12 new branches and venues has opened up since 2005
- Improved RaRoCar and C/I ratio Q2/Q2
- Underlying revenue growth in Sweden
- approx. 16% QoQ excl. ALM-
programme (Retail deposit hedge)
Gold customers Regional banks in Sweden
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Customer orientation
706 714 719 725 735 746 706
Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
25
Growth in revenues from New European Markets
YoY
- Orgresbank consolidated in income statement as per
Q2 with revenues of EUR 19m
- New European Markets accounts for 3% of Group
revenues in Q2
- Total lending up 68%, excl. Orgresbank
- Mortgage lending up 88%
- Number of gold customers doubled
- Growth ambition in Poland and Baltics
- Approx. 40 new branches to be opened in Poland this year and 10-15 in Baltics
- Focus in Russia on corporate customers, Nordic
corporate customers and personal customers in high- end segment
- Long term targets to be decided during autumn
- Growth with strict cost and risk management
* Poland, Baltics and Russia. IMB included until Q2 2006. Q3/06 excl. gain from sale of IMB shares EUR 199m. Orgresbank included from Q2 2007.
43 39 36 31 63
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Total income New European Markets*
EURm
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
26
Updated vision and values to support growth strategy
Profit orientation - Focus, Speed, Performance
Vision Values Foundation Mission
The leading Nordic bank, acknowledged for its people creating superior value for customers and shareholders
High ambitions Growth strategy Strong customer-oriented culture Operating model Profit orientation
G r e a t c u s t
- m
e r e x p e r i e n c e s It’s all about people One Nordea team
27
New operating model to support growth strategy – implementation on track
Institutional & International Banking Private Banking
Account Products Cash Management & Payments Capital Market Products Savings Products & Asset Management
Banking & Capital Market Products Savings & Life Products Group Services & Technology People & Identity Group Corporate Centre Group Credit & Risk Control Group Legal & Compliance Nordic Banking
Segment Household & Corporate
High ambitions Growth strategy Operating model Profit orientation Strong customer-oriented culture
28
Outlook 2007
The strong revenue growth is expected to continue in the second half of
2007
As previously stated cost increase for the full-year 2007 is expected to
be of the same magnitude as in 2006, ie 4-5%
- Incl. Orgresbank and planned investments in Russia the cost increase is expected to
be approx. 6%.
Gap between revenue and cost growth for the full year 2007 is expected
to be 3-4%-points excl. banking operations in Russia
- Incl. Nordea’s Russian banking operations the corresponding gap is in the area of 2-
3%-points
The quality of the credit portfolio remains strong. Lower recoveries
during the latter part of the year are likely to result in actual net charges in the coming quarters
29
Summary – Second Quarter 2007
- Consistent delivery on organic growth strategy – on track with financial targets
Revenues up 8% Profit before loan losses 11% Risk adjusted profit up 17% Gap between revenue and cost increase of 2.6%-points in H107 RoE 19.5%
- Double digit increase in business volumes
Lending up 15% Deposits 11% Consumer lending up 17%
- Investments in future growth
Net 550 employees recruited excl. Orgresbank in 12 months Investments in New European Markets
- Well controlled expense growth
Cost increase 5.9% - 5.1% excl. banking operations in Russia and the increase in variable salaries
CFO Presentation
31
Income statement summary
11 1,656 1,830 Profit before loan losses 5 1,780 1,873 Operating profit 8 1,405 1,517 Net profit
- 58
45 19 Equity method
- 4
75 72 Other income 120 41 Loan losses 6 11 5 7 8 21 5 9 Chg %
- 1,878
- 44
- 739
- 1,095
3,534 502 1,028 1,884 H1/06
- 49
Depreciation
- 774
Other expenses
- 2,000
Total operating expenses
- 1,177
Staff costs 3,830 Total operating income 609 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 1,083 Net fee and commission income 2,047 Net interest income H1/07 EURm
32
Income statement summary
16 9 8 2 4 2 1 4 18
- 10
9 2 4 Chg % 835 881 949 Profit before loan losses 740 927 89
- 945
- 21
- 372
- 552
1,780 54 25 223 521 957 Q2/06 895 978 Operating profit 701 816 Net profit 10 9 Equity method 33 39 Other income 13 28 Loan losses
- 992
- 24
- 383
- 585
1,873 291 535 1,004 Q1/07
- 25
Depreciation
- 391
Other expenses
- 1,008
Total operating expenses
- 592
Staff costs 1,957 Total operating income 318 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 548 Net fee and commission income 1,043 Net interest income Q2/07 EURm
33 957 1,006 1,004 1,043 979
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Net interest income
EURm YoY
- Up 9%
- Significant contribution from deposit
- Volumes and margins
- Savings accounts up 15%
- Total lending up 16% -
compensating for margin pressure
- Negative impact from ALM strategy
– retail deposit hedge
- Negative effect will gradually disappear
Q2oQ1
- Up 4%
- Positive contribution from deposits
- Continued lending volume growth
- Double digit growth annualised
- Lending margins largely stable
- Day count EUR 10m and
Orgresbank EUR 13m
34
1% 17%
– of which non collateralised lending
5% 16%
– SME lending
15% 27%
– CIB lending*
7% 16% Deposits, total*
32% 14% 9% 14% 14%
16%
YoY 8%
– CIB deposits*
7%
– SME deposits
5% 3% 4%
5%
Q2oQ1
– Household deposits – Consumer lending** – Mortgage lending
Lending, total*
Robust volume growth continues in business areas
* Excl. Repos ** Retail consumer lending (collateralised + non-collateralised consumer lending)
35
5 64 Other, net 39 163 Total 5
- 77
Margin driven
53
- 130
43 133
176
YoY 9
- Deposit margins
- 4
11 18
29
Q2oQ1
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
EURm
36
Net commission income
EURm YoY
- Up 5%
- Lending-related commissions
increased 18% reflecting strong business activity
- Savings-related commissions gross
up 9%
- AM commissions up 6% following growth in AuM
- Life commissions gross up 23%
- Brokerage 7%
- Card commissions gross up 15%
- Commission expenses up due to the launch of
credit cards to gold customers
- Payment commissions up 6%
- Price pressure on giro payments
Q2oQ1
- Up 2%
- Card commission gross up 21%
521 549 535 548 497
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
37
Net commission income – business trends
Retail funds
Outflow in Nordic Retail Funds partly into savings accounts with attractive rates
Savings accounts
The strong growth in savings accounts, EUR 4.2bn in 12 months drives a substitution effect from
commissions related savings products to net interest income (Net interest income up 8%) Structured products
The successful penetration of Markets related products drives a substitution effect from
commissions related savings products to Net gains/losses at fair value (Net gains/fair value up 21%)
The development in net commission income should be seen in light of business trends and Nordea’s strategy within the savings area
38
Breakdown of commission income - gross
319 338 335 325 301 359 356 360 177 177 171 183 187 197 181 195 87 98 88 86 87 91 100 106 32 59 41 45 36 49 37 39
40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Savings related Payments related Lending related Other
EURm
Of which Asset Mgmt Of which Cards
39
220 277 273 3 19 33 18 28 205 290
50 100 150 200 250 300 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm YoY
- Up 21%
- Up 14% in Business Areas
- Increased penetration of Nordea’s SME customer
base
- High activity in household segment, mainly equity
products and structured products Q2oQ1
- Up 9%
- High revenues maintained in Nordea Markets – in
particular with Retail customers
- High investment return in Life
- Strong performance in Group Treasury – supported
by OMX gain
40
43 290 69 6 108 107 Q2/07 40 273 57 3 124 89 Q1/07 44 277 80 6 102 90 Q4/06 8 205 51 7 81 75 Q3/06 7 220 61 4 77 88 Q2/06 Asset Mgmt CIB Group Treasury BAs Life Retail Net/gains losses, EURm
Increased revenues from net/gains losses in Business areas
41
1,780 1,898 1,873 1,957 1,734
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Continued growth in Net interest
income – up 9%
- Double-digit lending growth compensating for
margin pressure
- Increased deposit volumes and improved margins
- Net commissions income up 5%
- Revenues from savings increasingly appearing on
all key lines in the income statement
- Strong increase in Net gains/losses –
up 21%
- Continued successful penetration of the SME
segment Q2oQ1
- Up 4%
- Net interest income up 4%, increased business
volumes and stable margins
- Net gains/losses up 9%
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
*
42
Revenue growth in Nordea
3,534 Lending, volumes and margins Savings: AM, Life and savings accounts Markets +3 +79 +83 Income H1 06
EURm
3,830 +27 Other +25 Poland & Baltics +296 +79 Transaction accounts Income H1 07
43
Expenses
EURm YoY
- Costs up 6.5%
- 5.9% excl. Orgresbank
- Prioritised investments in growth areas
- Excl. Orgresbank and variable salaries up 5.1%
- Staff costs up 7.5%
- Increase in FTE’s
- Wage inflation
- Variable salaries up
Q2oQ1
- Expenses largely unchanged excl.
Orgresbank
- Orgresbank adding expenses in Nordea group of
EUR 12m
552 606 585 592 372 355 391 383 391 21 23 19 24 25 550
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Staff costs Other expenses Depreciation
1,016 928 945 992 1,008
44
Staff costs
Staff costs H1 07 Wage increases Higher variable salaries and profit sharing Increase in FTEs, net Staff costs H1 06
EURm
- No. of recruited
FTEs: approx. 2,700*
- No. of FTEs that
has left: approx. 2,200*
Training and
- ther costs
related to the
- rganic growth
strategy +20 +82 +35 1,095 +16 +11 1,177 3.2% 1.8% 1,5% 1% 7.5%
* Excl. Orgresbank
45
Number of FTEs
- Excl. New European Markets number employees up less than 1 %
- Increased number of sales related employees and falling number of employees in processing and
staff units
27,601 27,717 27,473 27,584 27,894 1,600 1,679 1,773 2,798 2,969
20,000 22,500 25,000 27,500 30,000 32,500 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Nordea excl. New European Markets New European Markets
1,662
- 195
8
- 203
1,857 14 1,113 280 1,566 277 Chg YoY 47 3,306 4,872 CIB 18 1,577 1,857
- f which P&B
6 29,201 30,863 Total
- 3
6,170 5,975 Group Functions 8 23,031 24,888 BAs 1
- 4
1 2 % 1,137 5,033 2,054 17,671 Q2/06 1,145 4,830 2,068 1,113 17,948 Q2/07 Group Staffs
- f which Orgresbank
GPT AM & Life Retail FTEs
46
Gap excluding operations in Russia
7.5 9.6 8.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q1 H1/07 Q2 1.2 4.2 2.6 1 2 3 4 5 Q1 H1/07 Q2
6.3 5.4 5.9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q1 H1/07 Q2
Income growth Expense growth
- Q2/07: Orgresbank revenues EUR 19m,
expenses EUR 12m
- H1/06: IMB revenues EUR 22m
% %
GAP, %-points
%
Banking operations in Russia
47
- 31
- 55
- 82
- 13
- 28
- 23
- 89
- 7
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20
Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Loan losses, net
EURm H1
- Positive at EUR 41m reflecting
continued recoveries and limited new provisions
- Stable credit quality in all markets
48
740 876 701 816 673 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Net profit
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Effective tax rate in the first-half
year was 19%
- Revaluation of the deferred tax asset in
Finland
- Reduction of corporate tax rate in Denmark
down from 28% to 25% effective from 1 Jan 2007 Q2oQ1
- Up 16%
- Tax expenses lowered by appox. EUR 30m
due to the tax change in Denmark
*
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
49
Growth in risk adjusted profit in line with long-term target
* Gain from sale of shares in Asiakastieto (EUR 29m) and IMB equity method (EUR 22m) *
- 51
- Non recurring items
3,534 3,830 Total income
- 185
- 190
Expected losses
- 1,878
- 2,000
Total operating expenses
17 1,024 1,197 Risk adjusted profit
- 396
- 443
Standard tax
13 9.2 10.3 Economic capital, EURbn 16 683 793 Economic profit
- 340
- 404
Cost of Equity 8.0% (7.5%)
Chg % H1/06 H1/07 EURm
50
18.0 21.5 19.5 20.6 22.7 24.1
5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 H1 07 RoE RaRoCar
Profitability maintained at high level
% H1
- Widened gap between RoE and
RaRoCar demonstrates capital efficient growth
- Higher liability margins
*
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares ** Risk-adjusted return on capital at risk
**
51
Return on risk weighted assets, rolling 4 quarters benefits from Basel II
153 159 162 169 174 180 185 185 193 189 1.26 1.42 1.45 1.41 1.47 1.44 1.46 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.63 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
RWA Return on RWA Basel I Return on RWA Basel II
EURbn %
*
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
Basel II
52
Strong increase in risk-adjusted EPS
0.54 0.40 0.58 0.46
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Reported EPS, EUR EPS, risk adjusted, EUR H1 06 H1 07
53
200 193 185 185 180 176 189
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
RWA Basel I RWA Basel II without floors RWA Basel II
Approval of Basel II impacting RWA
EURbn
- RWA according to Basel I up 4%
Q2/Q1 to EUR 200bn
- Basel II reduces RWA with 12% to
EUR 176bn
- Floor rules gives reported RWA of
EUR 189bn – a reduction of 6%
54
6.8 6.9 6.8 7.1 6.8 7.7 7.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Tier I Basel I Tier I Basel II excl. floor rules Tier I Basel II incl. floor rules
Improved capital position
%
- Tier I 7.1% according to Basel II
- Step one in Basel II implementation
- Core capital base EUR 13.5bn
- Tier I excl. floor rules 7.7%
- Tier I according to Basel I 6.8%
55
Capital management
- Economic Capital up 13% to EUR 10.3bn
Increased credit risk exposure following increased lending of 16%
- Risk adjusted return (RaRoCar) continues to improve to 24.1% (22.6%)
- High level of RoE (19.5%)
- Capital to finance organic growth and add on acquisitions. Additional excess
capital will over time be distributed to shareholders
Business trends
57
Total lending
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Corporate Housing loans Other loans Public sector
EURbn
148 146 182 149 147 147 156 155 170 161 175 189 199 191 201 214 222 230
58
Household mortgages, volumes and margins
42.7 44.2 46.8 48.2 49.6 52.9 54.7 56.6 57.8 60.1 63.0 65.2 66.9 69.4 71.8 74.9 76.3 79.0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
EURbn %
59
Retail consumer lending, volumes and margins
12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6 16.4 16.9
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
- 0.2
0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8
EURbn %
60
Lending to corporates (SME), volumes and margins
57.3 57.3 57.4 56.7 56.3 58.1 58.5 61.0 64.0 65.3 67.9 70.0 70.9 73.2 73.4 78.4 81.1 84.9
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
EURbn %
61
CIB lending, volumes and margins*
21.7 22.6 21.4 18.4 18.1 20.3 19.0 18.0 21.4 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.6 23.3 22.3 23.6 24.5 27.5
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, New European Markets
62
Total deposits
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Of which household deposits
EURbn
97 98 92 96 93 91 95 105 105 108 106 116 119 113 119 126 126 133
63
Retail deposits, households, volumes and margins
40.2 40.7 41.7 41.3 40.4 42.3 42.9 43.8 44.1 45.7 46.9 47.0 47.1 49.6 50.1 50.7 51.4 54.1
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
EURbn %
64
Retail deposits, SME, volumes and margins
26.2 26.3 26.7 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.8 30.5 29.4 30.1 31.5 33.4 32.6 34.8 34.7 37.5 37.3 39.9
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
EURbn %
65
CIB, deposits, volumes and margins*
14.4 15.4 13.3 15.2 14.9 17.9 18.0 21.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 22.1 21.2 22.3 21.8 25.0 27.1 28.9
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, New European Markets
66
Structural Interest Income Risk (SIIR)
- 279
249 Q2/07
- 189
175 Q2/06
- 249
220 Q1/07 Decreasing market rates, 100bp Increasing market rates, 100bp EURm, annualised effect on NII*
*Approx. end of period SIIR is defined as the effect on net interest income (NII) in the next 12 months if market rates change by one percentage point. Figures are asymmetrical as interest rates on deposits from customers cannot be reduced below 0%. Figures are based on maturity and reprising structure, and the effect going forward will be subject to management decisions and the competitive situation in the market.
- Increasing SIIR following higher deposit volumes
67
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Assets under management
EURbn YoY
- Up 15% or EUR 21bn
- Value appreciation accounting 50% of the
increase
- Net inflow the remaining 50%
- Assets in Nordic Private Banking
up 28% or EUR 10bn
Q2oQ1
- AuM up 1.4%
- Value appreciation and net outflow
149 144 158 163 165
68
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Net inflows
EURbn H1
- Net inflow EUR 1.3bn
- Strong inflow in Nordic Private
Banking, EUR 2.9bn
Q2
- Net outflow EUR 1.3bn
- Loss of a few large mandates within
Institutional clients and European Fund Distribution
- Minor outflow from Nordic Retail funds to
savings accounts
- Another strong quarter in Nordic Private
Banking 1.8 3.3 2.0 2.6
- 1.3
69
Retail Banking profit before loan losses
EURm Q2/Q2
- Up 15%
Increased penetration of SME customers
- Revenues up 9%
- NII up 10%
Significant contribution from deposits Increased revenues from mortgage book Q2/Q1
- Commissions up 9%
Lending and savings commissions
- Expenses up 5%
- C/I ratio down to 51%
595 595 601 679 588 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
25 53 Q2/06 26 53 FY 2006 28 51 Q2/07 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
70
Retail Banking
26.8 52.8 55 26 Q2/07 163 174
- 217
391 Q2/07 Sweden 23.9 49.1 61 22 Q2/06 12% 23% 0% 9% Chg 14.3 27.3 56 19 Q2/06
- 6%
4% 6% 5% Chg 16.7 33.3 56 18 Q2/07 80 82
- 106
188 Q2/07 Norway Finland Denmark 25.0 37.7 50 33 Q2/06 44% 34% 5% 20% Chg 26.6 42.1 44 40 Q2/07 234 221
- 174
395 Q2/07 47.5 55.6 Lending, bn 23.9 21.4 Deposits, bn 48 50 C/I ratio, % 27 26 RaRoCar, % Q2/07 Q2/06 4% 206 Operating profit 15% 204 Profit before loan losses 6% 10% Chg
- 189
Total expenses 393 Total income Q2/07 EURm
Adjusting for the effect of the the Retail deposit hedge revenue growth in Sweden was 16%
71
CIB profit before loan losses
EURm Q2/Q2
- Up 11%
- High business activity
- Revenues up 13%
- Poland and Baltics up 42%
- Shipping, Offshore and Oil divisions up 26%
- FID revenues up 10%
- CBD largely unchanged adjusted for IMB and a
single large transaction in 2006
- Expenses up 16%
- Flat adjusting for increase in variable salaries and
investments in New European Markets 157 158 187 174 145 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
22 49 Q2/06 22* 49* FY 2006 24 50 Q2/07 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios *
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
72
CIB
19 21 41 35 90 88 24 21
RaRoCar, %
2.7 6.2 64
Q2/07
16 16
- 28
44
Q2/07
P&B 1.9 3.7 65
Q2/06 78% 45% 40% 42% Chg
4.5 9.1 22
Q2/06 33% 33% 0% 26% Chg
5.9 10.2 17
Q2/07
52 52
- 11
63
Q2/07
SOOSD FID CBD 10.3 1.5 43
Q2/06 9% 9% 12% 10% Chg
15.6 2.8 43
Q2/07
50 50
- 38
88
Q2/07
12.7 14.5
Lending, bn
7.4 7.5
Deposits, bn
36 29
C/I ratio, % Q2/07 Q2/06
- 49%
59
Operating profit
- 20%
63
Profit before loan losses
- 3%
- 15%
Chg*
- 36
Total expenses
99
Total income Q2/07 EURm
* Adjusted for IMB
73
Orgresbank
- Income statement consolidated from
Q2
- Focus on Russian corporate
customers, Nordic corporate customers and personal customers in high-end segment
Long term targets to be decided during
autumn
- Growth with strict cost and risk
management
9 9
- 10
- 3
- 7
19 1 3 2 13 Q2 2007 Profit before loan losses Other expenses Loan losses Staff costs Operating profit Total expenses Total income Other income Net gains/losses on items at fair value Net fee and commission income Net interest income EURm
74
Asset Management product result
EURm Q2/Q2
- Product result up 26%
- Improved revenue margin and stable
expense margin
- Strict cost management
Q2oQ1
- Product result up 3%, annualised
12%
- Improved asset mix
82 113 100 103 78 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
143.9 52 Q2/06 164.9 48 Q2/07 AuM, EURbn C/I ratio, % Key ratios
75
Life insurance, product result
EURm Q2/Q2
- Up 29%
- Stable growth in Gross written
premiums
- Strong sales in Denmark and Poland
- Improved investment result
- Moderate cost development
- Swedish Life market still effected by
the regulatory changes
52 74 58 67 61 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
9
- 0.5
Q2/06 11 0.8 Q2/07 Financial buffers, % Inv return, % Key ratios
76
Group Treasury, operating profit
10 6 39 27 28 21 34 42 32 32
20 40 60 80 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Group Investment Group Funding
EURm YoY
- Strong investment earnings
- Supported by gain in OMX
- Successful money market positions in
Group funding
Q2/Q1
- Strong operating result despite
increasing interest rates
CRO Presentation
78
Nordea’s IRB model approved
- Corporate and Institutions included in 2007
- Approx. 50% of credit portfolio
- Retail portfolio gradually to be included under IRB foundation
Standardised Standardised Standardised Standardised Operational Risk Foundation Foundation Standardised Foundation Foundation IRB Foundation Foundation IRB Advanced Advanced IRB Credit Risk Institutions Corporate Retail 2007 2008 2009 2010
79
Basel 1 Standard IRB Retail AIRB
Gradual reduction of RWA through 2010
Basel 1 FIRB/SA IRB Retail AIRB
(77)% (13)% (22)% (35)% (41)% (31)% (36)%
Market risk
Basel 1 floor
(22)% (16)%
Basel 1 floor
Market risk Market risk Market risk Op risk Op risk Op risk
(12)% (13)% (77)%
Corporate & Inst. Portfolio* Total credit risk Total RWA Retail Portfolio**
Basel 1 FIRB IRB Retail AIRB Basel 1 FIRB/SA IRB Retail AIRB
Credit risk RWA
* Corporate portfolio includes counterparty risk in Basel II (FIRB, IRB Retail and AIRB), calculated as market risk according to Basel 1 rules ** Retail includes all household exposures and SME corporates with exposure under 100 EURt
80
13.5 10.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
EUR bn
200 160 50 100 150 200 250 Basel I 2007 H1 2007 H1 Pro forma (1) EUR bn
Nordea expects to have excess capital after full implementation of Basel II in 2010
20% expected reduction in RWA by 2010 incl. Pillar 2 effects Reducing required capital by approx EUR 2.6bn by 2010
1) RWA based on full introduction of Basel II (2010) with portfolios as of end June 2007 2) Required capital based on 20% lower RWA and same capital ratios as of end June 2007
6.8% 6.8%
20% reduction in RWA Implications for Tier I capital
H1 2007 2010 (2)
81
Capital Adequacy Situation- Overview
189.4 Total RWA, incl. floor 200.4 Basel I RWA 4.3 RWA Market risk
3.2 Basel I reporting entities 66.9 Standardised 90.3 IRB Foundation
160.4 RWA Credit risk
0.1 FX risk, other 3.3 Trading book non-VaR 0.8 Trading book VaR
175.6 Total RWA Basel II 11.0 RWA Operational risk H1 2007
82
Implications of Basel II for Nordea
- Reduction of required capital over time
- Enhanced business processes
- Efficient processes for credit granting
- Focus on capital efficiency
- Improved risk management processes based on
- Improved data quality
- Unified processes
- Risk based pricing
- Efficient credit risk mitigation (collateral)
- Alignment of Regulatory and Economic Capital
Creates value
83
Income
- Lending margin
- Fees and commission
Cost of Capital
- Company ratings – point in time
- Economic Capital
- Defined cost of Equity
Expected losses - historical data on default statistics
- Current assessment of expected losses is on average 17bp
Operating expenses Hurdle pricing to achieve Economic Profit
Nordea’s model for pricing of credits
84
Managing pricing over the economic cycle
- Avoid long maturities with fixed pricing
- Price step-ups
- Pricing grids based on rating or covenants
- Low hold levels on unsatisfactorily priced
deals - syndications
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 00-01-03 00-05-03 00-09-03 01-01-03 01-05-03 01-09-03 02-01-03 02-05-03 02-09-03 03-01-03 03-05-03 03-09-03 04-01-03 04-05-03 04-09-03 05-01-03 05-05-03 05-09-03 06-01-03 06-05-03 06-09-03 07-01-03 07-05-03
%
5 years interest rate
85
- Increasing default rates
- Increasing cost of capital
- Improved risk adjusted prices expected
Pricing power in lending is contra cyclical
Credit spreads likely to increase when economic cycle turns
- 5.000
10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 S 6+ 6 6- 5+ 5 5- 4+ 4 4- 3+ 3 3- 2+ 2 2- 1+ 1 1- 0+ 0- Exposure (EUR mill.) Q4 2006 Q1 2007
Rating distribution, corporate and sovereign customers
86
Loan portfolio by customer category*
85 84 82 78 79 83 80 84 91 97 100 101 105 105 113 123 44 46 48 49 50 53 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 68 71 74 80 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 23 119 93 76 23
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Corporate lending Housing loans Other loans
EURbn * Excluding public sector
87
Public sector 2.1% Household customers 45.0% Companies 52.9% Household customers 44.8% Public sector 1.8% Companies 53.5%
End Q2/06, EUR 198.8bn End Q2/07, EUR 229.6bn
Loan portfolio by customer group
88
Housing loans 77.1% Other loans 22.9%
Lending to household customers
End of Q2/07 EUR 102.6bn
- Other loans comprise
- Consumer credits
- Investment credits
- Car financing
- Overdraft facilities
- Credit cards
- Home equity credits
89
Other 7% Real estate 27% Construction 3% Agriculture & Fishing 5%
- Transp. &
Communication 5% Finance 11% Renting,Consulting and other services 11% Manufacturing 16% Commerce and services 10% Shipping & Offshore 5%
Lending to companies by industry
End of Q2/07 EUR 123.1bn
90
229.6 6.1 6.7 13.1 13.9 13.2 19.4 11.8 6.3 3.9 32.5 102.6 Q2/07 222.2 5.9 6.6 13.9 12.4 12.7 17.5 12.6 6.7 3.6 31.6 98.7 Q1/07 214.0 5.7 6.4 14.2 12.5 12.7 15.0 11.1 5.9 3.4 30.7 96.4 Q4/06 201.1 5.3 6.1 13.7 12.5 8.4 14.6 10.8 5.9 3.3 28.6 91.9 Q3/06 198.8 5.2 5.8 14.5 12.0 9.6 14.5 10.4 5.8 3.6 28.0 89.4 Q2/06 Total Shipping & Offshore Agriculture & Fishing Other companies/public sector Renting, Consulting and other services Finance Manufacturing Trade and services Transport, communication Construction Real estate Household customers EURbn
Loan portfolio in figures
91
USA 1.1% Latin America 0.6% Other 7.5% Nordic countries and P&B 92.5% EU countries 3.9% Other non OECD 0.6% Other OECD 0.4% Asien 0.9%
Lending by geographical area
End of Q2/07 EUR 229.6bn
Nordic countries and P&B, EURbn
- Denmark
62.5
- Sweden
59.9
- Finland
44.5
- Norway
39.6
- P&B
6.2
92
45 40 132 Provisions for off balance sheet items 1,266 1,118 941 Total allowances 79 69 70 Total allowances / Impaired loans, gross individually assessed (%) 1,158 354 47 0.40 852 764 1,616 Q4 2006 367 282 Allowances for collectively assessed loans 1,311 1,073 Total allowances and provisions 0.36 0.30 Impaired loans, net / lending (%) 56 49 Allowances, individually assessed / Impaired loans, gross, (%) 707 693 Impaired loans, net, individually assessed 899 659 Allowances for individually assessed loans 1,352 Q2 2007 1,606 Q2 2006 Impaired loans, gross, individually assessed EURm
Impaired loans and total allowances
93
8 8 Credit institutions 27 16 43 Financial operations 2 1 3 Public sector 3 3 6 Shipping 27 18 45 Construction 40 23 63 Transport, communication 18 15 33 Agriculture & Fishing 78 102 180 Renting, Consulting and other services 37 37 Other companies 102 88 190 Trade and services 131 181 312 Manufacturing 659 42 125 Provisions 1.352 103 329 Gross 693 61 204 Net Total Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q2/07
Impaired loans
94
Loan losses
EURm 58 86 299 101
- 147
- 140
- 381
- 89
- 54
- 13
126
- 129
- 140
- 28
- 82
- 420
- 270
- 120
30 180 330 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Gross Reversals Net
YoY
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Stable credit quality in all markets
Economic capital
96
Economic capital (EC)
EURbn
9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.3 9.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
1,157 Life 456 Treasury 2,118 CIB 107 Asset Mgmt 119 GPT 3 Other 6,356 Retail Banking 10,315 Q2/07 Total EC per business area (EURm)
97
Economic capital – distribution
End of Q2/07
Credit risk 65% Market risk 15% Business risk 10% Operational risk 9% Life risk 1%
Retail 62% CIB 21% Asset Mgmt & Life 12% Treasury 4% Other 1%
Facts & figures
99
Facts & Figures, content
Business areas
Page 100
Balance sheet
Page 129
Market position
Page 132
Appendix
Page 133
Retail Banking
101
Retail Banking lending and deposit volumes
26.8 16.7 26.6 23.9 Q2/07 25.2 15.6 25.6 22.3 Q1/07 26.0 14.7 25.8 21.7 Q4/06 23.9 14.3 25.0 21.6 Q3/06 23.9 14.2 25.0 21.4 Q2/06 12.5 12.9 13.4 Norway 21.8 24.1 20.5 Q1/06 22.4 24.8 20.3 Q4/05 21.3 23.9 20.6 Q3/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Deposits, EURbn 52.8 33.3 42.1 55.6 Q2/07 51.2 30.5 40.9 54.3 Q1/07 51.1 28.8 39.5 52.5 Q4/06 48.8 27.4 38.6 48.7 Q3/06 48.3 26.8 37.7 47.5 Q2/06 24.3 25.2 26.0 Norway 46.5 36.4 45.5 Q1/06 46.1 35.6 45.1 Q4/05 45.2 34.8 43.2 Q3/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Lending, EURbn
102
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.7 18.2 19.2 Q2/07 4.6 17.6 18.8 Q1/07 4.0 17.2 18.3 Q4/06 4.3 16.5 17.7 Q3/06 4.2 16.0 17.5 Q2/06 4.0 15.5 16.9 Q1/06 3.9 15.2 16.4 Q4/05 3.8 14.8 16.2 Q3/05 Corporate Consumer lending Households mortgages Finland, EURbn 6.9 23.7 23.7 Q2/07 6.7 23.1 22.9 Q1/07 6.5 22.5 21.9 Q4/06 6.3 21.8 19.1 Q3/06 6.0 20.8 18.2 Q2/06 5.8 20.3 18.2 Q1/06 5.8 19.6 18.1 Q4/05 5.8 18.8 17.0 Q3/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Denmark, EURbn
103
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.2 21.0 25.7 Q2/07 4.0 20.3 25.2 Q1/07 4.1 20.5 24.9 Q4/06 3.7 19.5 24.0 Q3/06 3.6 19.2 24.8 Q2/06 3.4 18.3 23.5 Q1/06 3.4 18.0 23.5 Q4/05 3.3 17.4 23.2 Q3/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Sweden, EURbn 1.1 16.1 16.2 Q2/07 1.1 15.3 14.3 Q1/07 1.0 14.7 13.3 Q4/06 1.0 14.0 12.7 Q3/06 1.0 13.3 12.7 Q2/06 0.9 12.8 12.3 Q1/06 0.9 12.4 12.0 Q4/05 0.8 11.9 11.5 Q3/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Norway, EURbn
104
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
8.3 9.9 8.3 Q2/07 8.2 9.7 7.8 Q1/07 7.9 9.9 7.9 Q4/06 7.7 9.9 7.4 Q3/06 7.5 10.1 7.4 Q2/06 7.2 9.9 7.0 Q1/06 7.1 10.4 7.2 Q4/05 6.6 10.4 7.0 Q3/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Finland, EURbn 11.2 3.5 9.3 Q2/07 10.7 3.2 8.4 Q1/07 10.0 3.4 8.3 Q4/06 9.9 3.3 8.3 Q3/06 9.9 3.4 8.0 Q2/06 9.5 3.1 7.8 Q1/06 9.4 3.2 7.8 Q4/05 9.5 3.1 8.0 Q3/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Denmark, EURbn
105
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
9.1 5.8 11.9 Q2/07 8.4 5.3 11.5 Q1/07 7.8 5.8 12.5 Q4/06 7.8 5.5 10.6 Q3/06 7.4 5.4 11.1 Q2/06 6.7 5.0 10.1 Q1/06 6.3 5.0 11.0 Q4/05 6.8 5.0 9.6 Q3/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Sweden, EURbn 4.1 2.2 10.4 Q2/07 4.0 1.9 9.6 Q1/07 3.9 2.0 8.8 Q4/06 3.8 2.1 8.3 Q3/06 3.7 2.2 8.3 Q2/06 3.7 2.0 7.7 Q1/06 3.7 1.8 7.4 Q4/05 3.9 1.7 6.9 Q3/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Norway, EURbn
106
Retail Banking margins
1.81 1.08 3.09 0.57 0.89 Q2/07 1.76 1.06 3.25 0.56 0.90 Q1/07 1.74
- 1. 06
3.46 0.57 0.92 Q4/06 1.69 1.03 3.53 0.63 0.95 Q3/06 1.66 1.02 3.61 0.70 0.98 Q2/06 0.81 0.76 0.75 Mortgages, households 3.80 3.75 3.66 Consumer loans, households 1.62 1.01 1.00 Q1/06 1.54 1.05 1.04 Q4/05 1.55 1.06 1.06 Q3/05 Lending to SME’s Deposits, households Deposits, SME’s %
Payments & transactions
108
E-banking customers, all customers
E-banking customers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feb-00 June- Oct-00 Feb-01 June- Oct-01 Feb-02 June- Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Mill.
E-banking payments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Mill.
109
Cards, all customers
Issued debit and credit cards
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-01 May-01 Sept-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sept-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-06 May-06
Debit cards Credit cards
Mill.
Card payments
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07
Mill.
110
Payment transactions, households
50 100 150 200 250
Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07
Manual transactions Payment ATMs Card payments Cash withdrawal ATMs Direct debit Netbank payments
111
Payment transactions, households
683 91.7 57.2 80.0 395.2 7.3 51.5 H1 07 97.6 117.3 139.3 155.7 168.3 E-banking payments 961 1,026 1,109 1,204 1,300 Total 81.5 204.4 395.5 31.7 150.6 2002 86.1 197.4 459.9 27.1 137.7 2003 98.5 190.4 527.8 23.6 129.1 2004 621.0 735.1 Card payments 19.7 16.3 Pay terminals 124.6 108.7 Manual transactions 181.7 164.8 Cash withdrawal ATM 106.3 2006 101.2 2005 Direct debit Mill.
Corporate and Institutional Banking
113
CIB lending and deposit volumes and margins
0.84 42.3 6.2 10.2 2.8 14.5 Q2/07 0.85 38.2 5.2 9.9 1.7 12.9 Q1/07 0.86 36.4 4.6 9.4 1.5 12.7 Q4/06 0.83 31.1 3.8 9.1 1.3 12.0 Q3/06 0.87 32.3 3.7 9.1 1.5 12.7 Q2/06 0.93 32.2 3.4 8.6 2.0 12.0 Q1/06 0.96 32.4 3.3 8.5 1.7 11.1 Q4/05 0.91 32.2 2.8 8.1 1.8 10.9 Q3/05 Total* Poland and Baltic Corporate Banking Division SOOS Financial Institutions Division Lending, EURbn Margins**, % * Incl. Markets volumes ** Excl. Markets and Poland and Baltics 0.32 33.5 2.7 5.9 15.6 7.4 Q2/07 0.36 31.0 2.4 4.5 14.5 8.2 Q1/07 0.34 29.3 2.3 4.3 13.0 7.8 Q4/06 0.38 25.1 2.0 3.8 11.3 6.7 Q3/06 0.37 26.4 1.9 4.5 10.3 7.5 Q2/06 0.37 25.7 1.8 4.3 10.4 6.6 Q1/06 0.40 26.8 1.8 4.3 10.9 7.0 Q4/05 0.39 23.3 1.5 3.6 8.6 6.3 Q3/05 Total* Poland and Baltic Corporate Banking Division SOOS Financial Institutions Division Deposits, EURbn Margins**,%
114
Nordea operations in New European Markets
50 9 0.2 % 0.3 % 317 569 918 1,113 35 29,300 Russia 242 6 2 8 3 Operating profit (Q2), EURm 1.2 % 2.7 % 3.8 % 7.2 % Market share, deposits, % 18 1.9 % 1,468 2,234 2,387 937 48 387,300 Poland 6 5 4 Country position, overall 2,969 222 385 301 Number of FTEs 132 12 19 18 Branches/salespoints 1,319,4001 62,600 51,950 59,250 Customers 7,914 1,178 1,923 1,509 Total assets, EURm 8.9 % 468 1,854 Latvia 9.4 % 604 1,427 Estonia 6.5 % 283 1,097 Lithuania Market share, lending, % 3,139 Deposits & Funds, EURm 7,180 Commitments3, EURm Total End of Q2/07
1 Incl. Polish Life customers 2 Difference compared to summary of country result is explained by booking of provisions and allocated headoffice costs 3 Includes guarantees
Asset Management & Life Insurance
116
Breakdown of AuM by market and channels
* All funds targeted at Nordic Retail segment. ** Includes pension pools products
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Europe North America Retail funds*
(sold through
- wn distribution)
Fund sales through third-parties Private Banking Institutional customers Total by market Q2/07 EURbn 164.9 38.7 8.7 7.9 1.9 19.2 0.1
- 5.4
- 19.5
16.9 2.8 9.8
- 11.7
5.5 3.7 3.1 1.8 0.6 18.8 9.2 5.4
- 7.6
4.0 1.3 58.7 39.5 13.8 33.9 18.4 0.6 26.4 56.6 5.4 37.8 Life & Pensions**
117
67 65 79 71 72
- 22
- 21
- 23
- 21
- 21
32 31 43 36 37
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Income margin Operating expenses margin Result margin
Asset Management margins
Bps
- Improved income margin Q2/Q2
- Underlying changes in income margin
mix – both management fee margins and transaction income margins improved, with management fee margin improvements accounting for the majority of the income margin increase compared to second quarter last year
Margins calculated using average AuM for Asset Management Activities excl. Nordic Private Banking
118
Asset structure*
Q2/07
*Average AuM for Asset Management activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities.
Q2/06
Nordic fixed income 46% Int'l. equities 26% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 14% Nordic fixed income 41% Int'l. equities 26% Nordic equities 15% Int'l. fixed income 18%
119
European fund distribution
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Inflow AuM
EURbn
5402 666
120
Life - breaking out profit drivers
- Fee based on size of life provisions in “with profit” companies – DK, FI
- Profit-sharing from the Norwegian business (existing model, change pending)
- 25% of surplus/deficit from cost result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- 25% of surplus/deficit from risk result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- Investment return from separated shareholders’ equity (DK, SE)
- Health and accident result, holding company result etc.
- Net unit-linked result including unit-linked cost/risk result
- Commissions paid to Retail Banking less distribution cost in Retail Banking
Fee contribution Contribution from cost result Contribution from risk result
- Inv. return on
shareholders’ equity Other profits Unit-linked Retail commission and distribution cost
121
Life - profit drivers
356 459 816 31 67
- 4
15 56 10 2 7
- 1
38 Q2/07 416 605 1.021 32 58
- 5
17 46
- 3
8 5
- 1
37 Q1/07 511 602 1.112 37 74
- 5
12 67 4 11 9
- 4
47 Q4/06 267 454 720 37 61
- 4
14 51 5 6 6 34 Q3/06 404 560 964 35 52
- 4
13 43 5 1 6
- 4
35 Q2/06 Of which income within Retail Key figures Premiums written, net of reinsurance Here of from Traditional business Here of from Unit-linked business Total Profit Unit linked Traditional insurance Other profits Estimated distribution cost in Retail
- Inv. return on Shareholders Equity
Total Profit Traditional Total product result Contribution from risk result Contribution from cost result Fee contribution/profit sharing EURm
122
Life – net written premiums by market
816 98 87 178 154 299 Q2/07 1.021 125 97 213 257 329 Q1/07 1.112 150 191 238 205 328 Q4/06 153 95 Sweden 124 97 Other 964 720 Total 205 134 Norway 262 244 Denmark 221 151 Finland Q2/06 Q3/06 EURm
123
Life, investments
EURbn
- Equities
Predominantly listed equities 1/3 Nordic, 2/3 international
- Bonds
3/4 Nordic issuers Primarily government and
mortgage institutions
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07
Equities Real Estate Alternative investments Bonds Unit linked
30.3 31.1 32.5 33.0 33.6
124
Life - asset allocation
23 23 33.0 33.3 Total 13 22 19 27 Q2/07 Equities, % 13 21 20 26 Q1/07 3.6 4.9 8.8 14.5 Q1/07 Q2/07 3.7 Sweden 5.0 Norway 8.8 Finland 14.7 Denmark Total, EURbn
125
Life - solvency situation
End of Q2/07 177 51 118 67 Sweden** 337 548 779 232 Finland 129 152 669 517 Denmark 231 235 414 179 Norway* Solvency in % of requirement Solvency buffer Actual solvency Required solvency EURm
* Excluding unit linked company ** Nordea Life Sweden I
126
Life – solvency sensitivity
End of Q2/07 177 231 337 129 Solvency in % of requirement 146 231 261 125 Equities drop 12% 212 231 372 128 Interest rates down 50bp 231 Norway 142 Sweden 129 Denmark Finland 303 Interest rates up 50bp
127
Life – financial buffers
11.4 16.9 6.7 7.5 14.0 Q2/07 2,503 267 268 394 1,574 Q2/07 13.6 220 Sweden
% of total provisions EURm
10.6 2,337 Total 7.3 386 Finland 13.3 1,503 Denmark 6.1 228 Norway Q1/07 Q1/07
128
Life – buffers in different scenarios
End of Q2/07
EURm
267 268 394 1,574 Financial buffers, actual 246 179 218 1,311 Equities drop 12% 218 269 474 1,581 Interest rates down 50bp 267 Norway 309 Sweden 1,521 Denmark Finland 314 Interest rates up 50bp
Balance sheet
130
Balance sheet
375,003 15,545 28,539 7,905 31,986 97,146 32,044 132,608 29,230 375,003 77,348 30,998 229,583 28,561 8,513 30 June 2007 325,072 13,528 20,688 8,158 24,836 83,559 29,071 119,062 26,170 325,072 66,529 24,747 198,842 27,301 7,653 30 June 2006 15,322 Total equity 346,890 Total assets 32,288 Deposits by credit institutions 126,452 Deposits and borrowings from the public 31,041 Liabilities to policyholders 83,417 Debt securities in issue 346,890 25,254 8,177 24,939 75,228 24,207 213,985 26,792 6,678 29 Dec 2006 Other liabilities Other assets Derivatives Subordintated liabilities Loans and receivables to credit institutions Derivatives Loans and receivables to the public Total liabilites and equity Treasury bills and other eligible bills EURm
Market position
132
Market position in Nordic markets
9.9% 11.4% 30.7% 14.3%
- consumer lending
3.8% 12.1% 27.4% 17.4% Life & Pensions* 13.5% 16.3% 35.4% 19.4%
- lending
19.2% 18.1% 38.5% 25.1%
- deposits
17.8% 8.4% 32.6% 21.3%
- deposits
15.4% 12.0% 31.1% 15.4%
- mortgage lending
2.2% 12.8% Sweden 3.8% 6.9% Norway 3.7% 27.2% Finland 9.4% 13.3% Denmark Corporate customers Brokerage (June 2007) Investment funds Personal customers Market shares
Statistics mainly from April - May 2007 * Share Gross Written Premiums, 12 months rolling Q1 2007
Appendix
134
Ratings
AA AA AA AA Long R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) Short DBRS AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank AB A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ Short S&P AAA AAA AA- AA- AA- Long Long Short Long Short A1 P-1 Norgeskreditt Aaa Nordea Kredit Aaa Nordea Hypotek* AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank N AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank F AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank D Fitch Moody’s
*Covered bond rating
135
3.7
- 25
- 15
- 5
5 15 25 35 45
Bank of Irland Hbos Allied Irish Bank Danske DnB NOR SHB Barclays Santander Erste Bank Swedbank Lloyds Unicredito SEB Nordea RBOS BNP Societe Generale KBC Commerzbank ABN Amro
%
Top quartile
Total shareholder return (TSR) Ytd 2007 (2/1 2007 – 29/6 2007)
136
Largest registered shareholders, end June 2007
1.1 0.4 % 11.5 Seventh Swedish National Pension Fund
- 1.5
0.6 % 15.2 Fidelity Funds
- 2.6
0.8 % 21.4 Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund
- 1.4
1.8 % 46.8 Alecta 0.3 0.9 % 22.3 Second Swedish National Pension Fund 0.0 1.7 % 45.0 AMF Pension 9.2 3.1 % 81.1 Sampo Oyj
- 0.2
0.8 % 20.4 First Swedish National Pension Fund
- 0.5
1.4 % 36.7 SEB Funds
- 0.1
0.4 % 11.3 iShares Funds
- 2.9
1.0 % 26.0 Nordea Funds 12.7 0.2 0.7 % 18.6 Third Swedish National Pension Fund 0.0 0.6 % 15.0 AMF Pension Funds 10.7 55.2 % 1432.1 Other 100.0 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 1.2 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 4.0 % 19.9 % Percent of Nordea 0,0 Nordea Profit-sharing Foundation 2,594.1 Total number of outstanding shares 1.6 65.4 Robur Funds 0.6 53.8 SHB/SPP Funds 0.0 515.6 Swedish state 0.0 102.5 Nordea Denmark Fund 1.5 Henki-Sampo-Group 0.0 30.0 Skandia Life Insurance Change 30 days, mill shares Number of shares, mill Shareholder
137
4.18 3.28 5.11 4.05 4.27 3.95 4.12 3.77 30-03-07 4.81 3.47 5.74 4.43 4.95 4.26 4.77 4.01 30-06-07 0.63 0.19 0.63 0.38 0.68 0.31 0.65 0.24 Change Q2/07 Short, SE Long, SE Short, NO Long, NO Long, DK Short, DK Long, EUR (5 years) Short, EUR (one week) %
Market development – interest rates
138
Macro data – Nordic market
Source: Nordea Markets Economic Outlook May 2007. In Norway, forecasts are for mainland GDP
% 2006 2007e 2008e Gross domestic product DK 3.2 1.9 1.4 FI 5.5 3.5 3.3 NO 2.9 3.9 2.1 SE 4.4 3.3 2.8 Inflation DK 1.9 1.7 1.9 FI 1.6 2.0 1.9 NO 2.3 0.8 2.6 SE 1.4 1.9 1.4 Private consumption DK 3.4 1.9 1.5 FI 3.0 2.8 3.0 NO 4.3 4.0 2.0 SE 2.8 3.8 2.8 Unemployment DK 4.5 3.9 4.0 FI 7.7 7.2 6.8 NO 3.4 2.6 2.5 SE 5.4 4.8 4.5
139
Financial calendar 2007
Q3 report 2007 will be published 25 October (please note change of date)
www.nordea.com/ir
140
Disclaimer
- Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are
based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Nordea assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein.
- No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Nordea or its
directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Nordea or any of its directors,
- fficers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever
arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
- This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any
solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Nordea, nor shall it or any part
- f it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or
investment decision.