Investor Presentation 19 July 2006 CEO Presentation Strong results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 19 July 2006 CEO Presentation Strong results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 19 July 2006 CEO Presentation Strong results reflecting robust and diversified business mix RoE up to 21.2% Net profit up 17% to EUR 1,405m (EUR 1,200m in H1 2005) Operating profit up 14% to EUR 1,790m (EUR
CEO Presentation
3
Strong results reflecting robust and diversified business mix – RoE up to 21.2%
Net profit up 17% to EUR 1,405m (EUR 1,200m in H1 2005) Operating profit up 14% to EUR 1,790m (EUR 1,572m)
Operating profit in Q2 up 5% to EUR 932m (EUR 884m Q2/05)
Income up 8% to EUR 3,544m (EUR 3,276m) – Net interest income up 4% Costs up 3%, excluding Life up 2% Cost/income ratio continued down to 53% from 55% Positive net loan losses of EUR 120m (EUR 107m) – 9th consecutive
quarter with net recoveries
Earnings per share EUR 0.54 (EUR 0.45), up 20% Return on equity 21.2% (19.4%)
4
Profitable growth in all Business Areas – continued strong performance in key growth areas
- No. of core customers increased by 6%
Consumer lending up 10%; No. of credit cards up 30% Strong growth in business volumes with small and medium sized
enterprises (SMEs)
Assets under Management up 11%; Nordic Private Banking
customer base increased by 10%
Net written premiums in Life up 35% Continued customer driven growth in capital market activities Execution of growth plans in Sweden and in Poland & Baltics is
progressing
5
%
- ECB as well as Central banks in
Sweden and Norway increased interest rates in H1 2006
- Trend with increasing long term
interest rates continued
- Interest rates still at historical low level
Effects on Nordea
- Improved deposit margins
- Increased demand for hedging
products
- Slightly lower financial buffers in Life
- Insignificant effects on loan demand
and credit quality
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 ECB Central Bank Sweden Central Bank Norway 5 year EUR 5 year Sweden 5 year Norway
Changing market environment – interest rates
6 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2 / 1 / 6 1 6 / 1 / 6 3 / 1 / 6 1 3 / 2 / 6 2 7 / 2 / 6 1 3 / 3 / 6 2 7 / 3 / 6 1 / 4 / 6 2 4 / 4 / 6 8 / 5 / 6 2 2 / 5 / 6 5 / 6 / 6 1 9 / 6 / 6
MSCI European index MSCI Nordic index %
- International equity market turmoil
in Q2/06
- Equity indexes down approx. 10%
since mid May
- Increased uncertainty and risk
premium
Effects on Nordea
- Impact on savings related
commissions – limited in Q2
- Switch from equity to interest funds
(59% fixed income funds end Q2)
- Increased demand for structured
products
- Lower investment return for Life
Changing market environment – equity markets
7
Operating profit
EURm YoY
- Up 14%
- Profitable growth in all BAs – in total
- perating profit up 20%
- Business model and growth strategy
continues to pay off
- Robust and diversified business mix
limited impact from volatile markets
- Decision to increase costs in
profitable growth areas, eg long term savings, Growth Plan Sweden and Poland & Baltics
Q2oQ1
- Up 9% - despite challenging market
conditions for Markets and Treasury
- Large loan loss recoveries
688 728 748 858 932 884
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
8
Continued growth in operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Increased focus on top line growth
- Steady increase in net interest income
- Volume growth more than
compensates for margin pressure
- Commission income up 10%
Savings related commissions up 12% Card commissions up 10%
- Net/gains losses up 28%
strong increase in customer driven financial
transactions
1,785 1,582 1,601 1,696 1,759 1,694
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
9
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
EUR
10
Revenue growth in Nordea
3,276 Income H1/06 Lending growth in Retail/CIB Lending margin pressure Savings: AM, Life, brokerage and savings accounts Markets + 132
- 121
+ 97 + 79 Income H1/05
EURm
3,544 + 81 Other*
* Including current accounts
11
Unchanged cost focus
- Reported costs up 3%
- Costs excl. Life up 2%
- In line with increased growth focus
- EUR 30m of cost increase related
to investments in growth areas
1,816 1,878 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 H1/05 H1/06 EURm
12
Cost management culture firmly established
- Since 2002 total costs in nominal
terms have decreased by 6% and in real terms around 15%
- Nordea accepts a moderate
increase in costs in the present strong market environment
to capture profitable growth opportunities Nordea has flexibility and ability to adjust
accordingly if macro environment changes
3,655 3,668 3,903 3,835 1,878 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2002* 2003* 2004 2005 H1/06 EURm *Adjusted for Life, leasing, group investments and net of acquisitions/divestments. 2002 includes Postgirot
13
Cost/income ratio continues downwards
- Down to 53% in H1
income up 8% costs up 3%
- Continuous efficiency
improvements
- Delivery in line with financial targets
60 53 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2005 H1/06 %
14
Gap between income and cost development
Percentage points
- Gap of 5%
- Capture profitable revenue
- pportunities
- Top line increasingly contributing
- Maintaining a gap secures delivery
- f net profit and RoE
high value creation
- Business model in Life focusing on
long term value creation and profitability
1 7 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2003 2004 2005 H1/06
Gap excl. Life
15
Key growth areas – progress already visible
- Accelerate market position within consumer credits incl. cards
- Continue to leverage on strong position within long-term savings, eg
Private Banking and Life
- Strengthen the position in Sweden – focus on advisory services
- Harness Nordea’s leading position in capital markets – leveraging
Nordea’s customer base. Untapped potential among SMEs
- Use the mortgage product as a potential customer acquisition vehicle –
case Norway
- Further position Nordea successfully in the Baltics, Poland and Russia
Increasing the number of core clients
16
134 103 154 111
- No. of customers
(m) Volume per customer (EUR'000) Business volumes (EURbn)
1.3 1.4
Increased number of core customers and volumes
- Key elements in the programmes offered to
the customers:
more favourable prices the more business
customers do - for core customers a named personal banking adviser at their service
transparent pricing three levels: Basic, Intermediate and Core
- Key focus on increasing:
customer satisfaction and loyalty business volume per customer
- Strong success to date
- no. of customers and business volume per
customer increased in core segment drive the improved earnings Strong growth in core segment H1/05 to H1/06 6.4% 7.4% 14.3%
17
Accelerate market position within consumer credits and cards
EURbn YoY
- Consumer lending up 10%
- 645,000 new cards issued
- In total 5.3 million cards issued
- f which approx. 25% credit cards
- no. of credit cards up 30%
Q2oQ1
- Consumer lending up 5%
annualised 20%
- Growth strategy and penetration of
customer base is paying off
- Margins basically unchanged
adjusting for business mix
- Card commissions up 9%
12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Consumer finance lending
18
Continue to leverage on strong position within long- term savings – Private Banking
EURbn
- Strong asset growth in Nordic Private
Banking
driven by 10% increase in customer base strong performance despite turbulent market
conditions in Q2
net inflow in Q2 18% annualised result of roll out of new common advisory
concepts, particularly in Norway and Sweden
- AuM up 15% YoY
29 31 33 34 36 37 8 8 8 9 9 9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
European private banking Nordic private banking
19
Continue to leverage on strong position within long term savings – stepwise increase in premiums in Life
EURm
- Net written premiums up 35% H1oH1
up 49% Q2oQ2
- Unit linked share of premiums 41% H1
- Increased penetration in the customer
base – successful cooperation between Life and Retail
- Nordea’s share of signed agreements in
Mandatory Company Pension (MCP) Norway well above 25%
- Market share of new written premiums
- n private market 7.5% in Sweden end
March
590 458 404 607 582 560 198 187 174 474 390 404
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Traditional insurance Unit linked
20
Capturing untapped potential in Sweden proceeding according plan More than 150 additional Personal banking advisors and specialists
within private Banking and corporate pension recruited
equals around 60% of the intended inflow of additional specialists to further grow
business in Sweden
Four new sales and advisory venues opened during H1
in total it is expected to establish around 10 new venues in 2006
Strengthen the position in Sweden – focus on advisory services
21
Harness Nordea’s leading position in capital markets – untapped potential among SMEs
Nordea Markets
- Leveraging Nordea’s customer base
- Customer driven growth
- Focus on customer solutions rather
than product push
strong concepts in risk management and
asset-liability management
increased capabilities in derivatives
- F/X and fixed income still the
strongest profit contributors
structured products increasing
- Risk committed to customer activities
- Costs in Markets largely unchanged
since 2001
reduced no. of FTEs and IT consolidation
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 H1/06
Total income Total costs Operating profit
EURm
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm YoY
- Net gains/losses in BAs increased by 41%
to EUR 374m
- Strong success in selling Markets products
in Retail and CIB
- Strong growth in customer driven business
structured products strong and stable core business in F/X and
fixed income trading
Q2oQ1
- Treasury result down EUR 9m due to OMX
shares (compared with Q1 decrease of EUR 34m) - good inv. result excl. OMX
- Life down following volatile markets
131 159 190 164
- 16
80
- 20
- 43
32 15 210 134
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
22
23
Use the mortgage product as a potential customer acquisition vehicle – case Norway
Gradual increase in market share in Norwegian household market
for a number of years
Mortgages close to 12% Consumer lending close to 11%
Decision to offer more competitive client proposition in Norway
Nordea left customers’ interest rates unchanged 1 June despite rate hike 25bp by
Central Bank
mortgage margins in Norway are significantly higher than Nordic average Nordic convergence is certain to happen Nordea has the ambition to increase the competitive offer and market share mortgages a potential customer acquisition vehicle for additional business increased cross-selling potential
24
Russia
- Nordea’s strategy is to build its own presence in the Russian banking market to capture the
growth opportunities seen in the large market in the Baltic Sea region
- Establish a fully controlled operation, either by obtaining a bank licence or through an
acquisition of a small to medium sized bank
- As a result Nordea has signed and agreement to sell the holding of 23.4% in IMB to
Unicredit
- Tax-free capital gain of approx. EUR 200m
Poland and the Baltic countries
- Business activity in Poland and the Baltic countries continued to be strong during Q2
total lending increased by approx. 50% YoY mortgage lending grew by approx. 100% YoY Nordea continued to gain market shares in the fast growing housing loan markets
Further position Nordea successfully in the Baltics, Poland and Russia
25
Fundamentals in the Nordic economies remain strong
GDP growth in Den, Fin, Nor, Swe expected to be in the 2.9-3.9%
range for 2006 and 2.1-2.9% in 2007
Rising inflation, however well in line with central bank’s targets
(approx. 2% in 2006-2007)
Robust increase in private consumption Moderate, and gradually falling unemployment rates Increasing disposable income Customers ability to service debt remain strong – less than 5% of
disposable income needed to service debts
26
Outlook
Nordea’s growth strategy is paying off and progress increasingly
visible in key growth areas
- No. of core clients continued to increase
Nordea will continue the successful execution of its organic growth
strategy
Despite rising interest rates and a somewhat uncertain outlook for
equity markets, Nordea is confident in reaching the ambition of at least 5 percentage points gap between revenue and cost growth for 2006
A moderate cost increase, in line with H1 expected for full year 2006
CFO Presentation
28
Income statement summary
14 1,572 1,790 Operating profit 17 1,200 1,405 Net profit 57 35 55 Equity method
- 5
165 156 Other income 107 120 Loan losses 3
- 36
3 6 8 28 10 4 Chg %
- 1,816
- 69
- 717
- 1,030
3,276 329 937 1,810 H1/05
- 44
Depreciation
- 739
Other expenses
- 1,878
Total operating expenses
- 1,095
Staff costs 3,544 Total operating income 421 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 1,028 Net fee and commission income 1,884 Net interest income H1/06 EURm
29
Income statement summary
11 9 1
- 9
1 2 1 69 20
- 26
3 3 Chg % 884 858 932 Operating profit 705 665 740 Net profit 22 25 30 Equity method 61 58 98 Other income 101 31 89 Loan losses
- 914
- 35
- 364
- 515
1,694 214 484 913 Q2/05
- 933
- 23
- 367
- 543
1,759 242 507 927 Q1/06
- 21
Depreciation
- 372
Other expenses
- 945
Total operating expenses
- 552
Staff costs 1,785 Total operating income 179 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 521 Net fee and commission income 957 Net interest income Q2/06 EURm
30
Net interest income
EURm YoY
- Up 4%
- Up 6% in Business Areas
- Increased contribution from deposits on back
- f higher interest rate level and volume growth
- Total lending up 14%
mortgage lending up 14% SME lending up 13%
- Continued pressure on lending margins in
certain areas
particularly in mortgages
Q2oQ1
- Up 3%
- Solid volume growth of 17% annualised -
higher than in Q1
- Improved deposit margins
- Healthy contribution from consumer credits
897 920 933 927 957 913
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
31
7
- 10
Treasury 10 11 Other, net (incl. day count effect) 30 74 Total
- 11
- 87
Margin driven
34
- 121
28 132
160
YoY 8
- Deposit margins
- 19
3 21
24
Q2oQ1
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
32
Net commission income
EURm YoY
- Up 10%
- Savings commissions up 12%
Asset Mgmt commissions up 13% Brokerage up 15% Custody services up 8%
- Payment related commissions up 5%
Cards up 10%
Q2oQ1
- Up 3%
- Driven by a strong growth in payment
commissions incl. cards
453 469 529 507 521 484
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
33
Breakdown of commission income - gross
281 306 319 338 335 325 162 175 177 177 171 183 82 90 87 98 88 86 51 48 32 59 41 45 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Savings related Payments related Lending related Other
EURm
Of which Asset Mgmt Of which Cards
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm YoY
- Net gains/losses in BAs increased by 41%
to EUR 374m
- Strong success in selling Markets products
in Retail and CIB
- Strong growth in customer driven business
structured products strong and stable core business in F/X and
fixed income trading
Q2oQ1
- Treasury result down EUR 9m due to OMX
shares (compared with Q1 decrease of EUR 34m) - good inv. result excl. OMX
- Life down following volatile markets
131 159 190 164
- 16
80
- 20
- 43
32 15 210 134
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
34
35
214 12 68 134 23 3 51 57 Q2/05 179 8 7 164 17 4 68 75 Q2/06 4 6 10 8 Asset Mgmt 76 74 83 87 CIB
- 15
- 21
- 31
40 Group Treasury 131 159 190 210 BAs 242
- 8
32 83 Q1/06 139 1 32 47 Q3/Q5 115
- 1
3 48 Q1/05 147
- 12
33 64 Q4/05 Life Eliminations Total Retail Net/gains losses, EURm
Strong trend in net/gains losses within Business Areas
36
103
- 21
124 14 53 57 H1/05 80
- 21
101 7 47 47 H1/06 Group Funding Group Investment
- 14
69
- 2
- 5
76 H1/06 77 47 32 Income
- 1
15 9 Other income
- 14
- 7
- 7
Expenses 52
- 29
H1/06 61
- 29
H1/05
- 8
86 H1/05 Operating profit Net gains/losses Net interest income EURm
Group Treasury
- Good result in volatile market conditions
annualised investment return in Q2 3.97% compared with funding cost of 3.25% positioned for increased interest rates lower result 2006 mainly explained by exceptionally strong Q2/05
37
Total operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Increased focus on top line growth
- Steady increase in net interest income –
volume growth more than compensating for margin pressure
- Commission income up 10%
Savings related commissions up 12% Payment commissions up 5%
- Net/gains losses up 28%
strong increase in customer driven financial
transactions
Q2oQ1
- Up 1%
- Solid increase in NII and commissions
- Treasury, Markets and Asset Management
partly affected by volatile capital markets
1,582 1,601 1,696 1,759 1,785 1,694
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
38
Expenses
EURm YoY
- Up 3% - ambition to capture opportunities
in growth markets
- excl. Life total expenses up 2%
- Approx. EUR 30m related to investments
within growth areas
Growth Plan Sweden, Life, Poland & Baltics
- Staff costs up 6%
increase of FTEs by approx. 380 general wage increase above 3% increased variable salaries correspond to
2% of increase
- Other costs up 3%
higher business volumes
Q2oQ1
- Up 1% - higher activity level
- Continued investments in growth areas
515 520 532 543 552 353 364 345 393 367 372 34 35 31 31 23 21 515
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Staff costs Other expenses Depreciation
933 896 914 902 956 945
39
Expense distribution
1,816 Expenses H1/06 Cost increases
- adj. for changed
variable salaries and investments in growth areas Increase in variable salaries +16 +16 Expenses H1/05 EURm 1,878 *Such as investments in Growth Plan Sweden, Cards, Life, Private Banking Investments in growth areas* +30
40
Staff costs
1,030 Staff costs H1/06 Wage increases Increased variable salaries Subtotal Staff costs Increase in FTEs, net + 31 +16 1,077 +18 Staff costs H1/05
EURm
1,095
- No. of recruited
FTEs: approx. 1300
- No. of FTEs that
has left: approx. 900
41
Number of FTEs
- Shift towards increasing advisors and
sales related FTEs in BAs and falling no.
- f FTEs in processing and staff units
28,824 28,730 28,925 29,052 29,201
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 6,193
- 303
6,439 6,136 Group Functions 22,732 +680 22,385 23,065 BAs 28,925 +377 28,824 29,201 Total
- 92
- 211
+215 +180 +285 Chg YoY 1,242 5,197 1,875 3,232 17,278 Q2/05 1,150 4,986 2,090 3,412 17,563 Q2/06 1,147 5,046 2,033 3,326 17,373 2005 Group Staffs CIB GPT AM & Life Retail FTEs
42
Cost/income ratio continues downwards
- Continued down to 53% in H1/06
income up 8% costs up 3%
- Continuous efficiency
improvements
- Delivery in line with financial targets
60 53 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 H1/06 %
43
Loan losses
EURm YoY
- Positive loan losses reflecting record
low new provisions coupled with recoveries maintained at a high level
- A handful of larger recoveries
Q2oQ1
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Country risk provisions decreased by
EUR 11m (increased EUR 23m Q1)
lower exposure in certain emerging markets
- Overall credit quality strong in all
markets
- 23
- 31
- 89
- 6
- 7
- 101
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
44
0.20 76% 405
- 1,272
1,677 Q2/06 0.18 80 341
- 1,371
1,712 Q1/06 0.25 78 449
- 1,545
1,994 Q3/05 0.24 79 425
- 1,581
2,006 Q2/05 0.18 81 339
- 1,481
1,820 Q4/05 Reserves Provisions/impaired loans, gross,% Impaired loans, net/lending,% Impaired loans, net Impaired loans, gross
- EURm. End of period
Impaired loans
- Net impaired loans as per cent of total lending: 20bp
45
Net profit
EURm YoY
- Up 17%
- Operating profit up 14%
- Tax rate 22% (24% H1/05) following
revaluation of tax asset in Finland
Q2oQ1
- Up 11%
- Operating profit up 9%
- Lower tax rate in Q2 - 21% compared
with 23%
705 506 665 740 563 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
46 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
EUR
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
47
Return on equity
%
- RoE well above 2007 target of >17%
- At top level among Nordic peers
- Active capital management
18.0 21.2 19.4 5 10 15 20 25 2005 H1/05 H1/06
48
Capital position
%
- Tier 1 ratio 6.8%
- Profitable volume growth
- Total capital ratio at 9.3%
6.8 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
49
Risk-weighted assets (RWA)
EURbn YoY
- RWA up 13%
- Total lending up 14%
- Off-balance commitments up 26%
Q2oQ1
- RWA up 3%
- Lending up 4%
153 159 162 169 174 180
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
RWA credit risk
50
Return on risk weighted assets, annualised
153 159 162 169 174 180 1.29 1.77 1.39 1.20 1.53 1.64 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
RWA Return on RWA (net profit, annualised)
EURbn %
Business trends
52
+3% +13%
– SME lending
+4% +12%
– CIB lending excl. Markets
+5% +13% Deposits, total
+11% +16% +8% +10% +14%
+14%
YoY +5%
– CIB deposits excl. Markets
+7%
– SME deposits
+5% +5% +4%
+4%
Q2oQ1
– Household deposits – Consumer lending* – Mortgage lending
Lending, total
Volume growth compensates margin pressure
* Retail consumer lending (collateralised + non-collateralised consumer lending)
53
Total lending
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Corporate Housing loans Other loans Public sector
EURbn
148 146 182 149 147 147 156 155 170 161 175 189 199 191
54
Household mortgages, volumes and margins
44.3 45.7 48.2 48.9 50.0 52.6 54.5 56.3 57.7 60.4 62.6 64.5 65.8 68.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
EURbn %
55
Nordic mortgage market
- A highly competitive market
- Nordic mortgage market still heterogonous – convergence expected
- Margin trends diverge
margins stable in Denmark at approx. 50bp signs of stabilising margins on new lending in Finland and Sweden - slightly lower compared
to back book of 70bp
- Nordea decided to offer lower margins in Norway in order to gain competitiveness
new lending 10-15bp lower than back book of approx. 90bp
- Lag effect between Central Bank Norway changes and client rates corresponds to
- approx. half of decrease in group mortgage margin in Q2
- Acceptable profitability measured by RoEC
profitability will improve with Basel II – cost efficiency a key competitive strength
- Revenues from mortgages account for less than 10% of Nordea revenues
56
EURbn %
Retail consumer lending, volumes and margins
12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8
Retail consumer lending Retail consumer margin
57
Lending to corporates (SME), volumes and margins
57.3 57.3 57.4 56.7 56.3 58.1 58.5 61.0 64.0 65.3 67.9 70.0 70.9 73.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
EURbn %
58
CIB lending, volumes and margins*
21.7 22.6 21.4 18.4 18.1 20.3 19.0 18.0 21.4 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.6 23.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
59
Total deposits
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Of which household deposits
EURbn
97 98 92 96 93 91 95 105 105 108 106 116 119 113
60
Retail deposits, households, volumes and margins
40.2 40.7 41.7 41.3 40.4 42.3 42.9 43.8 44.1 45.7 46.9 47.0 47.1 49.6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
EURbn %
61
Structural Interest Income Risk (SIIR)
- 167
162 Q1/06
- 175
132 Q2/05
- 189
175 Q2/06 Decreasing market rates, 100bp Increasing market rates, 100bp EURm, annualised effect on NII*
*Approx. end of period SIIR is defined as the effect on net interest income (NII) in the next 12 months if market rates change by one percentage point. Figures are asymmetrical as interest rates on deposits from customers cannot be reduced below 0%. Figures are based on maturity and repricing structure, and the effect going forward will be subject to management decisions and the competitive situation in the market.
- Increased SIIR following increased volumes
- Nordea mainly effected by changes in short term interest rates
62
Retail deposits, SME, volumes and margins
26.2 26.3 26.7 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.8 30.5 29.4 30.1 31.5 33.4 32.6 34.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
EURbn %
63
CIB, deposits, volumes and margins*
14.4 15.4 13.3 15.2 14.9 17.9 18.0 21.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 22.1 21.2 22.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
64
Assets under management
38 41 42 45 44 31 33 34 36 37 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 21 21 22 23 23 32 33 34 35 35
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Nordic retail funds Nordic private banking International wealth mgmt European fund distribution Institutional clients Life & pensions
EURbn YoY
- Up 11%
- Continued growth in Retail
funds, up 15%
- Strong asset growth in Private
Banking, up 20%
10% increase in customer base new common advisory concepts
Q2oQ1
- Down 1%
- Inflow of EUR 3.3bn
- Asset shift from equity to fixed
income funds
137 144 148 153 154
65
Net inflows
- 2
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Nordic Retail funds Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Mgmt European Fund Distribution Institutional clients Life & pensions
EURbn
- Net inflow EUR 8.2bn last 12
months
- Net inflow EUR 3.3bn in Q2
second quarter in a row with net
inflow above EUR 3bn
- Strong inflow in Nordic Private
Banking and Institutional clients
- Inflow of EUR 0.7bn in Retail
funds
marked asset shift from equity into
fixed income following the turbulent equity markets
- Net outflow from European
Fund Distribution
1.0 0.6 0.9 3.4 3.3
66
Retail operating profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Double digit volume growth
- Increased no. of core customers
- Lending margins still under pressure –
particularly on mortgages in Norway
- Capturing untapped potential in Sweden
proceeding well
150 additional advisors/specialists in Private
Banking and corporate pension recruited
4 new sales and advisory venues opened H1
505 556 577 600 544 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
28 57 H1/05 33 53 H1/06 RoEC, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
67
CIB operating profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Strong result in all divisions
- High level of activity in M&A market
- Very good result in Markets
increased market uncertainty have led to
good demand for hedging products
- Strong volume growth in Poland and
Baltics
- High loan loss recoveries
122 144 169 160 125 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
25 53 H1/05 27 48 H1/06 RoEC, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
68
Asset Management product result
EURm YoY
- Up 35%
- Higher AuM
- Double digit income growth
limited impact from volatile markets in Q2
- Improved income and result margin
somewhat reduced in Q2
65 96 93 85 77 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
137.3 56 H1/05 152.6 52 H1/06 AuM, EURbn C/I ratio, % Key ratios
69
Life insurance, product result
EURm YoY
- Net written premiums up 35%
- Unit link premiums up 106%
now accounting for 41% of total premiums
- Negative investment return following
increased interest rates and falling equity indexes
- Buffers decreased in Q2 but
substantially higher than Q2/05
also higher than year end
- Business model continues to deliver
52 56 56 52 65 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
6.6 5.9 H1/05 8.9
- 0.4
H1/06 Financial buffers, % Inv return, % Key ratios
70
Life – financial buffers
8.9 12.0 4.1 4.2 12.4 Q2/06 1,909 189 146 222 1,352 Q2/06 8.1 132 Sweden
% of total provisions EURm
9.4 1,999 Total 5.5 296 Finland 12.4 1,354 Denmark 6.4 217 Norway Q1/06 Q1/06
71
Life – buffers in different scenarios
End of Q2/06
EURm
189 146 222 1,352 Financial buffers, actual 177 77 95 1,172 Equities drop 12% 130 151 302 1,319 Interest rates down 50bp 141 Norway 239 Sweden 1,404 Denmark Finland 148 Interest rates up 50bp
72
Summary
Strong result reflecting robust and diversified business mix – RoE 21.2% Nordea’s growth strategy is paying off
increasing no. of core clients strong performance in long term savings – AuM up 11% supported by strong net inflow increased penetration among SME clients with Markets related products increased lending volumes in all segments larger part of revenues event driven and advisory related growth strategies in Sweden and Poland & Baltics developing well
Improved cost efficiency
Cost/income ratio down to 53% cost increase excl. Life 2% increased alertness to change in market conditions actions will be taken if needed
Gap between revenue and cost growth 5 percentage points
Facts & figures
74
Facts & Figures, content
Credit quality
Page 75
Economic capital
Page 84
Business areas
Page 87
Balance sheet
Page 114
Market shares
Page 117
Appendix
Page 125
Credit quality
76
Loan portfolio by customer category*
85 84 82 78 79 83 80 84 91 93 97 100 101 105 44 46 48 49 50 53 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 68 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Corporate lending Housing loans Other loans
EURbn * Excluding public sector
77
Companies 52.9% Public sector 2.1% Household customers 45.0%
End Q2/05, EUR 175.1bn
Public sector 2.1% Companies 52.8% Household customers 45.1%
End Q2/06, EUR 198.8bn
Loan portfolio by customer group
78
Housing loans 76.6% Other loans 23.4%
Lending to household customers
End of Q2/06 EUR 89.4bn
- Other loans comprise
- consumer credits
- investment credits
- car financing
- verdraft facilities
- credit cards
- home equity credits
79
Construction 3% Real estate 27% Manufactoring 14% Renting, consulting and other services 11% Other companies 10% Agriculture & Fishing 5% Shipping & Offshore 5% Transport and communication 6% Finance 9% Commerce and services 10%
Lending to companies by industry
End of Q2/06 EUR 105.2bn
80
198.8 5.2 5.8 14.5 12.0 9.6 14.5 10.4 5.8 3.6 28.0 89.4 Q2/06 190.7 5.4 5.7 15.1 10.4 8.7 14.0 9.9 5.8 2.9 26.8 86.0 Q1/06 182.1 4.8 5.8 12.8 6.1 14.6 12.6 9.9 5.1 3.1 25.6 81.7 Q3/05 175.1 4.4 5.6 12.0 5.7 12.5 12.9 9.8 5.6 2.6 25.1 78.9 Q2/05 188.4 5.3 5.8 14.6 9.6 10.5 13.4 9.9 5.6 2.9 26.2 84.6 Q4/05 Total Shipping & Offshore Agriculture & Fishing Other companies/public sector Renting, Consulting and other services Finance Manufacturing Trade and services Transport, communication Construction Real estate Household customers EURbn
Loan portfolio in figures
81
Asia 1.1% Other OECD 0.3% Other 6.8% Other EU countries 3.2% Latin America 0.6% USA 1.1% Other non OECD 0.5% Nordic countries and P&B 93.2%
Lending by geographical area
End of Q2/06 EUR 198.8bn
Nordic countries and P&B, EURbn
- Sweden
55.4
- Denmark
53.6
- Finland
40.8
- Norway
31.8
- P&B
3.7
82
5 1 6 Public sector 5 9 14 Shipping & Offshore 13 34 47 Construction 7 41 48 Transport, communication 15 131 146 Agriculture & Fishing 18 118 136 Renting, Consulting and other services 36 153 189 Other companies 43 147 190 Trade and services 58 304 362 Manufacturing 1,272 22 95 217 Provisions 1,677 25 117 397 Gross 405 3 22 180 Net Total Finance Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q2/06
Impaired loans
83
Loan losses
EURm 157 192 156 92 58
- 258
- 215
- 163
- 123
- 147
- 101
- 23
- 7
- 31
- 89
- 300
- 250
- 200
- 150
- 100
- 50
50 100 150 200 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
Gross Reversals Net
YoY
- Positive loan losses reflecting record
low new provisions coupled with recoveries maintained at a high level
- A handful of larger recoveries
Q2oQ1
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Country risk provisions decreased by
EUR 11m (increased EUR 23m Q1)
lower exposure in certain emerging markets
- Overall credit quality strong in all
markets
Economic capital
85
Economic capital (EC)
EURbn 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.2 8.9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06
986 Life 1,899 CIB 165 Asset Mgmt 365 132 Treasury GPT 7 Other 5,609 Retail Banking 9,163 Q2/06 Total EC per business area (EURm)
86
Economic capital – distribution
End of Q2/06
Life risk 1% Market risk 15% Operational risk 9% Business risk 12% Credit risk 63% Other 2% CIB 21% Treasury 4% Asset Mgmt & Life 12% Retail 61%
Retail Banking
88
Retail Banking lending and deposit volumes
23.9 14.2 25.0 21.4 Q2/06 10.5 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 Norway 21.8 24.1 20.5 Q1/06 22.4 24.8 20.3 Q4/05 21.3 23.9 20.6 Q3/05 20.8 23.4 18.1 Q1/05 20.6 24.0 19.3 Q2/05 17.8 18.3 Denmark 21.8 23.7 Q4/04 20.8 Sweden 22.7 Finland Q3/04 Deposits, EURbn 49.1 26.8 37.7 47.5 Q2/06 19.9 20.4 21.8 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 Norway 46.5 36.4 45.5 Q1/06 46.1 35.6 45.1 Q4/05 45.2 34.8 43.2 Q3/05 43.3 33.8 41.3 Q2/05 44.0 33.0 38.5 Q1/05 36.0 37.4 Denmark 42.6 31.6 Q4/04 40.9 Sweden 30.4 Finland Q3/04 Lending, EURbn
89
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.2 16.0 17.5 Q2/06 4.0 15.5 16.9 Q1/06 3.9 15.2 16.4 Q4/05 3.8 14.8 16.2 Q3/05 3.7 13.6 15.7 Q1/05 3.8 14.2 15.9 Q2/05 14.0 14.7 Corporate 3.6 13.3 Q4/04 3.6 Consumer lending 12.8 Households mortgages Q3/04 Finland, EURbn 6.0 20.8 18.2 Q2/06 5.8 20.3 18.2 Q1/06 5.8 19.6 18.1 Q4/05 5.8 18.8 17.0 Q3/05 5.5 17.2 14.7 Q1/05 5.7 17.9 16.1 Q2/05 13.7 14.3 Corporate 5.3 16.8 Q4/04 5.2 Consumer lending 16.4 Household mortgages Q3/04 Denmark, EURbn
90
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
3.6 19.2 24.8 Q2/06 3.4 18.3 23.5 Q1/06 3.4 18.0 23.5 Q4/05 3.3 17.4 23.2 Q3/05 3.3 16.6 22.9 Q1/05 3.3 16.6 22.2 Q2/05 20.5 21.6 Corporate 3.4 16.4 Q4/04 3.3 Consumer lending 15.9 Household mortgages Q3/04 Sweden, EURbn 1.0 13.3 12.7 Q2/06 0.9 12.8 12.3 Q1/06 0.9 12.4 12.0 Q4/05 0.8 11.9 11.5 Q3/05 0.7 10.5 10.6 Q1/05 0.8 11.4 11.1 Q2/05 10.3 10.4 Corporate 0.6 10.1 Q4/04 0.6 Consumer lending 9.6 Household mortgages Q3/04 Norway*, EURbn
* Norway restated, volumes in Boligkredit moved from consumer lending to mortgage lending
91
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.5 10.1 7.4 Q2/06 7.2 9.9 7.0 Q1/06 7.1 10.4 7.2 Q4/05 6.6 10.4 7.0 Q3/05 6.5 9.9 6.9 Q1/05 6.6 10.3 7.2 Q2/05 6.8 7.0 Corporate 7.1 9.6 Q4/04 6.4 Households, savings accounts 9.5 Households, current accounts Q3/04 Finland, EURbn 9.9 3.4 8.0 Q2/06 9.5 3.1 7.8 Q1/06 9.4 3.2 7.8 Q4/05 9.5 3.1 8.0 Q3/05 9.0 3.1 7.2 Q2/05 8.4 2.9 6.8 Q1/05 7.1 7.2 Corporate 8.1 2.9 Q4/04 7.8 Households, savings accounts 2.9 Households, current accounts Q3/04 Denmark, EURbn
92
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.4 5.4 11.1 Q2/06 6.7 5.0 10.1 Q1/06 6.3 5.0 11.0 Q4/05 6.8 5.0 9.6 Q3/05 6.4 4.9 9.5 Q1/05 6.5 4.8 9.4 Q2/05 9.3 10.6 Corporate 6.3 4.9 Q4/04 6.5 Households, savings accounts 4.9 Households, current accounts Q3/04 Sweden, EURbn 3.7 2.2 8.3 Q2/06 3.7 2.0 7.7 Q1/06 3.7 1.8 7.4 Q4/05 3.9 1.7 6.9 Q3/05 3.8 1.7 6.3 Q2/05 3.6 1.4 6.2 Q1/05 5.6 5.7 Corporate 3.5 1.4 Q4/04 3.5 Households, savings accounts 1.4 Households, current accounts Q3/04 Norway, EURbn
93
Retail Banking margins
1.74 0.91 3.61 0.70 0.98 Q2/06 0.85 0.93 0.92 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.75 Mortgages, households 4.05 4.18 4.07 4.04 3.81 3.74 3.66 Consumer loans, households 1.72 0.88 1.00 Q1/06 1.63 0.85 1.04 Q4/05 1.67 0.83 1.06 Q3/05 1.55 0.86 1.13 Q1/05 1.62 0.89 1.09 Q2/05 1.13 1.13 Lending to SME’s 1.58 0.92 Q4/04 1.50 Deposits, households 0.94 Deposits, SME’s Q3/04 %
Payments & transactions
95
E-banking customers, all customers
E-banking customers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feb-00 June- Oct-00 Feb-01 June- Oct-01 Feb-02 June-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Mill.
E-banking payments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Mill.
96
Cards, all customers
Issued debit and credit cards
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-01 May-01 Sept-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sept-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06
Debit cards Credit cards
Mill.
Card payments
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Mill.
97
Payment transactions, households
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Manual transactions Payments ATM Card payments Cash withdrawal ATMs Direct debit E-banking payments
Mill.
98
Payment transactions, households
572.3 76.5 50.9 90.2 280.1 10.3 64.5 H1/05 622.7 84.9 54.0 82.5 336.3 8.6 56.5 H1/06 78.2 97.6 117.3 139.3 157.8 E-banking payments 873 936 1,000 1,084 1,164 Total 78.5 207.2 333.5 34.3 141.0 2001 81.5 204.4 395.5 31.7 125.3 2002 86.1 197.4 459.9 27.1 112.5 2003 527.8 603.6 Card payments 23.6 19.7 Payterminals 103.9 100.1 Manual transactions 190.4 181.7 Cash withdrawal ATM 101.3 2005 98.5 2004 Direct debit Mill.
Corporate and Institutional Banking
100
CIB lending and deposit volumes and margins
0.88 32.3 3.7 9.1 1.5 12.7 Q2/06 0.93 32.2 3.4 8.6 2.0 12.0 Q1/06 0.96 32.4 3.3 8.5 1.7 11.1 Q4/05 0.91 32.2 2.8 8.1 1.8 10.9 Q3/05 0.94 30.9 2.3 6.5 2.0 12.8 Q1/05 0.87 32.5 2.5 7.7 2.0 12.0 Q2/05 24.5 26.6 Total* 2.0 2.4 Poland and Baltic 11.3 10.8 Corporate Banking Division 0.98 5.9 1.4 Q4/04 6.1 International and Shipping Division 1.6 Financial Institutions Division Q3/04 Lending, EURbn 0.97 Margins**, % * Incl. Markets volumes ** Excl. Markets and Poland & Baltics 0.37 26.4 1.9 4.5 10.3 7.5 Q2/06 0.37 25.7 1.8 4.3 10.4 6.6 Q1/06 0.40 26.8 1.8 4.3 10.9 7.0 Q4/05 0.39 23.3 1.5 3.6 8.6 6.3 Q3/05 0.37 26.7 1.3 3.2 11.1 8.9 Q1/05 0.36 24.7 1.4 3.6 8.8 8.0 Q2/05 20.8 24.9 Total* 1.2 1.3 Poland and Baltic 7.4 9.1 Corporate Banking Division 0.38 3.0 9.0 Q4/04 3.0 International and Shipping Division 7.5 Financial Institutions Division Q3/04 Deposits, EURbn 0.41 Margins**,%
101
Nordea operations in Poland and the Baltic countries
18** 9
- 1
8 7 Operating profit (H1), EURm 1.1 % 2.5 % 4.0 % 4.5 % Market share, deposits, % 19 1.7 % 1,051 1,560 1,798 835 37 342,400 Poland 6 5 3 Country position, overall 1,600 182 289 284 Number of FTEs 72 10 15 10 Branches/salespoints 1,186,500* 31,200 35,400 48,500 Customers 4,767 742 1,082 1,145 Total assets, EURm 7.4 % 390 1,025 Latvia 10.3 % 296 1,045 Estonia 6.4 % 209 647 Lithuania Market share, lending, % 1,946 Deposits, EURm 4,277 Commitments***, EURm Total End of Q2/06
* Incl. Polish Life customers *’ Difference compared to summary of country result is explained by booking of provisions *** Includes guarantees
Asset Management & Life Insurance
103
* All funds targeted at Nordic Retail segment. ** Includes EUR 4.7bn in pension pools products
Breakdown of AuM by market and channels
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Europe North America Retail funds*
(sold through
- wn distribution)
Fund sales through third-parties Private Banking Institutional customers Total by market Q2/06 EURbn 152.6 35.0 17.1 6.7 1.8 18.0
- 5.5
- 15.5
14.3 1.7 8.5
- 9.7
4.0 3.8 2.8 2.5 0.5 17.5** 8.4** 4.8**
- 5.2
3.4** 0.9 59.8 33.4 12.1 29.4 17.4 0.5 23.3 45.2 5.5 43.6 Life & Pensions
104
Asset Management - margins
Bps Q2oQ1
- Income margin up 4bp
- Operating expenses margin in line
with last year
- Result margin up 5bp
57 58 66 65 61
- 20
- 19
- 20
- 20
- 20
25 28 35 33 30
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Income margin Operating expenses margin Result margin
105
Asset structure*
Q2/06
Nordic fixed income 46% Int'l. equities 27% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 13%
Q1/06
*Average AuM for Asset Management activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities, in Q2 this was EUR 115.3bn
Nordic fixed income 43% Int'l. equities 29% Nordic equities 15% Int'l. fixed income 13%
106
European fund distribution
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Inflow AuM
EURbn
107
Life - breaking out profit drivers
- Fee based on size of life provisions in “with profit” companies – DK, FI
- Profit-sharing from the Norwegian business (existing model, change pending)
- 25% of surplus/deficit from cost result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- 25% of surplus/deficit from risk result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- Investment return from separated shareholders’ equity (DK, SE)
- Health and accident result, holding company result etc.
- Net unit-linked result including unit-linked cost/risk result
- Commissions paid to Retail Banking less distribution cost in Retail Banking
Fee contribution Contribution from cost result Contribution from risk result
- Inv. return on
shareholders’ equity Other profits Unit-linked Retail commission and distribution cost
108
Life - profit drivers
404 560 964 35 52
- 4
13 43 5 1 6
- 4
35 Q2/06 390 582 972 30 56
- 4
13 47 5 7
- 1
36 Q1/06 474 607 1,081 29 56
- 3
10 49 6 1 10
- 1
33 Q4/05 187 458 645 19 52
- 5
11 46 5 4 2 35 Q2/05 24 Of which income within Retail Key figures 577 Premiums written, net of reinsurance 404 Hereof from Traditional business 174 Hereof from Unit-linked business 65
- 4
9 60 7 3 7 43 Q3/05 Total Profit Unit linked Traditional insurance Other profits Estimated distribution cost in Retail
- Inv. return on Shareholders Equity
Total Profit Traditional Total product result Contribution from risk result Contribution from cost result Fee contribution/profit sharing EURm
109
Life – net written premiums by market
964 124 153 221 205 262 Q2/06 645 70 49 212 104 210 Q2/05 68 254 151 Sweden 33 111 107 Other 577 1,081 972 Total 90 147 236 Norway 222 296 237 Denmark 164 273 241 Finland Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 EURm
110
Life, investments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Equities Bonds Real Estate Unit linked Alternative investments
EURbn
- Equities
predominantly listed equities 1/3 Nordic, 2/3 international
- Bonds
¾ Nordic issuers primarily govmn’t & mortgage inst.
29.0 28.4 29.9 30.3 30.5
111
Life - asset allocation
20 19 29.5 30.3 Total 6 16 19 25 Q2/06 Equities, % 4 17 21 26 Q1/06 3.3 4.4 8.2 13.6 Q1/06 Q2/06 3.2 Sweden 4.5 Norway 8.1 Finland 13.6 Denmark Total, EURbn
112
Life - solvency situation
End of Q2/06 202 70 138 69 Sweden** 287 425 653 228 Finland 122 109 597 488 Denmark 209 163 313 149 Norway* Solvency in % of requirement Solvency buffer Actual solvency Required solvency EURm
* Excluding unit linked company ** Nordea Life Sweden I
113
Life – solvency sensitivity
End of Q2/06 202 209 287 122 Solvency in % of requirement 189 209 232 118 Equities drop 12% 244 209 322 121 Interest rates down 50bp 209 Norway 157 Sweden 123 Denmark Finland 255 Interest rates up 50bp
Balance sheet
115
Balance sheet
325,549 12,960 21,428 7,822 28,602 82,609 26,830 115,550 29,790 325,549 69,355 28,876 188,460 31,578 7,280 31 Dec 2005 12,358 13,528 Total equity 311,285 325,450 Total assets 35,320 26,170 Deposits by credit institutions 105,710 119,062 Deposits and borrowings from the public 25,263 29,071 Liabilities to policyholders 69,703 83,559 Debt securities in issue 325,450 21,066 8,158 24,836 66,599 24,747 198,842 27,301 7,961 30 June 2006 311,285 23,189 7,420 34,322 66,714 35,080 175,144 21,891 12,456 30 June 2005 Other liabilities and minority interests Other assets Derivatives Subordintated liabilities Loans and receivables to credit institutions Derivatives Loans and receivables to the public Total liabilites and equity Treasury bills and other eligible bills EURm
116
Capital base
180,382 15,252 165,130 9.3% 16,784
- 290
1,535 812 6,410 6.8% 12,199
- 634
- 1,800
- 304
1,458 13,479 Q2/06 173,618 16,312 157,306 9.4% 16,284
- 276
- 1,537
827 6,376 6.8% 11,721
- 1,210
- 1,795
- 308
1,462 13,572 Q1/06 15,130 14,399 15,545 RWA market risk
- 285
- 282
- 279
Deductions for other investments 14,854 16,009 15,486 Total capital base 9.4% 9.9% 9.2% Total capital ratio 832 833 837
- of which perpetual subordinated loans
169,028 153,483
- 1,535
5,862 6.8% 11,438
- 831
- 1,794
- 327
1,472 12,918 Q4/05 162,394 147,995
- 1,535
6,445 7.0% 11,381
- 696
- 1,804
- 460
1,395 12,946 Q3/05 158,530 143,400
- 1,441
5,528 7.0% 11,052
- 431
- 1,799
- 449
1,387 12,344 Q2/05 RWA credit risk Tier 1 capital Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 2 capital Deductions for investments in ins. companies Hybrid capital loans Goodwill Other items net Deferred tax assets Total RWA Core equity EURm
Market shares
118
Market position in Nordic markets
9.4% 11.0% 30.9% 14.7%
- consumer lending
7.5% 10.7% 28.7% 14.4% Life & Pensions (end March) 13.8% 16.2% 34.8% 18.7%
- lending
20.1% 16.8% 38.5% 21.0%
- deposits
17.9% 8.3% 33.3% 21.9%
- deposits
15.7% 11.9% 31.3% 17.6%
- mortgage lending
2.8% 13.6% Sweden 2.7% 8.4% Norway 5.4% 31.6% Finland 14.0% 19.8% Denmark Corporate customers Brokerage (Ytd 2006 - June) Investment funds Personal customers Market shares
* Statistics mainly from April/May 2006
119
Personal customer deposits - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50
May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600
Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 100 200 300 400 500 600
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
120
Corporate deposits - market volume & share
5 10 15 20 25 30
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 100 200 300 400
Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06
14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 100 200 300 400 500
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500 600
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
121
Personal customer lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 300 600 900 1200 1500
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 200 400 600 800 1000
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 A p r
- 3
J u n
- 3
A u g
- 3
O c t
- 3
D e c
- 3
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
122
Mortgage lending households - market volume & share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 200 400 600 800 1000
M a y
- 3
J u l
- 3
S e p
- 3
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
200 400 600 800 1000
Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 10 20 30 40 50
May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35%
123
Corporate lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 3
S e p
- 3
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 6
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500 600
Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-06 Feb-06 Apr-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
124
Investment funds - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 40 80 120 160 200 240 280
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Nordea market share
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-03 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28%
Appendix
126
Ratings
AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank AB A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ Short S&P AAA AAA AA- AA- AA- Long Long Short Long Short A1 P-1 Norgeskreditt Aaa Nordea Kredit Aaa Nordea Hypotek* AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank N AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank F AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank D Fitch Moody’s
*Covered bond rating
127
Total Shareholder Return (TSR),%
Nordea peer group* 1/1-06 – 30/6-06
- 10
- 5
- 3
- 3
- 1
3 4 4 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 15 14 7 8
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 20 SWEDBANK ERSTE BANK HBOS SHB ABN AMRO BARCLAYS RBOS DANSKE BANK ALLIED IRISH BANK SEB BANK OF IRELAND NORDEA UNICREDITO KBC COMMERZBANK HYPOVEREINSBANK DnB NOR LLOYDS TSB BNP PARIBAS SOCIETE GENERALE
% *As defined by Nordea
128
Largest registered shareholders, end of Q2/2006
0.5 12.8 Julius Baer Investment Mgmt 1.7 43.9 AMF Pension 1.7 43.6 Nordea Funds 1.3 34.0 Skandia Life Insurance 1.1 27.6 First Swedish National Pension Fund 1.0 26.9 Second Swedish National Pension Fund 0.8 20.9 Third Swedish National Pension Fund 0.4 10.6 Morgan Stanley Asset Mgmt 0.5 13.4
- Govt. of Singapore Inv. Corp
45.3 1,175.9 Total for the 20 largest shareholders 2.7 70.4 Alecta 2.6 67.3 Robur Funds 19.9 515.6 Swedish state 4.0 102.5 Nordea Danmark fund 2.5 63.8 SBH/SPP Funds 1.8 47.0 SEB Funds 0.8 19.9 ABN AMRO Asset Mgmt (Netherlands) 0.7 18.0 Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund 0.5 11.8 Franklin-Templeton Funds 0.5 12.7 Nordea Profit Sharing Foundation 0.5 13.0 Länsförsäkringar Funds % Number of shares Shareholder
129
3.54 2.05 4.05 2.44 3.78 2.71 3.62 2.56 31-03-06 3.97 2.21 4.48 2.85 4.08 2.89 3.94 2.76 30-06-06 +0.43 +0.16 +0.43 +0.41 +0.30 +0.18 +0.32 +0.20 Change Q2/06 Short, SE Long, SE Short, NO Long, NO Long, DK Short, DK Long, EUR (5 years) Short, EUR (one week) %
Market development – interest rates
130
Macro data – Nordic market
% 2006e 2007e 2008e Gross domestic product DK 2.9 2.2 2.5 FI 3.9 2.8 3.2 NO 2.8 2.1 2.6 SE 3.6 2.9 2.7 Inflation DK 1.9 1.7 1.6 FI 1.3 1.5 1.5 NO 2.4 1.6 2.2 SE 1.1 1.6 2.2 Private consumption DK 2.4 1.8 2.1 FI 3.3 2.2 2.6 NO 2.2 2.2 2.3 SE 3.5 3.0 2.5 Unemployment DK 4.8 4.5 4.6 FI 7.9 7.5 7.3 NO 3.7 3.6 3.6 SE 5.2 4.9 4.6
Source: Nordea Markets Economic Outlook May 2006. In Norway, forecasts are for mainland GDP
131
Financial calendar 2006
Q3 report 2006 will be published on 25 October