Investment Environment for Energy September 2015 Overview of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investment Environment for Energy September 2015 Overview of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Creating the Investment Environment for Energy September 2015 Overview of the RBC Group & RBC Capital Markets Leading global energy and infrastructure team with over 70 dedicated professionals ranked 2 nd in the UK & 5th globally


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SLIDE 1

Creating the Investment Environment for Energy

September 2015

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SLIDE 2

RBC Capital Markets 1 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 (US$bn)

Overview of the RBC Group & RBC Capital Markets

Global Banks Ranked by Market Capitalisation (1)

Sources: (1) Bloomberg as of 15-Sep 2015; (2) Infranews Note: Excluding Chinese Banks

Moody ’s A2 (S) A3 (S) Baa1 (S) Baa1 (S) A1 (S) Aa2 (S) A2 (S) A3 (P) A3 (S) Baa1 (P) Aa3 (N) A1 (S) Aa1 (N) A1 (S) A1 (S) Aa2 (S) Baa3 (S) Aa2 (S) Ba1 (S) Aa2 (N) S&P A+ (N) A (N) A- (N) A- (N) A (S) AA- (S) A (S) BBB+ (S) A- (N) BBB+ (S) AA- (N) A (S) AA- (N) A+ (S) A+ (N) AA- (S) BBB (S) AA- (S) BBB- (S) A+ (N)

Top 15

Global investment and commercial bank

Aa3

(Negative)

Moody’s

AA-

(Negative)

S&P

19.0%

Return on common equity (2014)

78,000

Employees

16m+

Clients worldwide

2015

£585,100,000

Acquisition of a 40% stake in Eurostar from the UK government Sole Financial Advisor to CDPQ and Hermes Infrastructure 2015

€2,550,000,000 EV

Mandated Lead Arranger & Bookrunner 2014 Acquisition of Finnish Assets by a consortium led by First State Investments and Borealis Infrastructure Sale of Bord Gáis Energy Financial Advisor to Bord Gáis Éireann 2014

€1,100,000,000

Notable Recent Infrastructure Transactions Leading global energy and infrastructure team with over 70 dedicated professionals – ranked 2nd in the UK & 5th globally for Infrastructure M&A Advisory in 2014 (2)

£4,200,000,000

Lead financial Advisor to Consortium and MLA Construction of the Thames Tideway Tunnel (TTT) project

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SLIDE 3

RBC Capital Markets 2

  • New energy policy and advances in technology are transforming power generation

landscape

  • The investment backdrop reflects:
  • Evolving market and regulatory conditions;
  • Environmental controls on the level of emissions; and
  • Financial incentives to invest in low carbon generation
  • Eurozone crisis significantly impacted European utilities with aggregate market caps

falling by more than €330bn since 2007 and putting balance sheets under pressure

  • Large investment opportunities for financial investors therefore exist
  • However the interplay between markets, and EU and national level energy policy is

complex, and makes the investment environment uncertain

Energy: The Investment Backdrop in Europe

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SLIDE 4

RBC Capital Markets 3

Attracting Low Cost Capital into the Energy Sector

  • Pension, infrastructure and sovereign wealth funds attracted to opportunities in

renewable energy sector, transmission, distribution and midstream energy infrastructure

  • Huge volumes of equity chase infrastructure deals:
  • 750 infrastructure deals completed globally in 2014 valued at $439bn(1)
  • Over $100bn of equity dry powder still available(1)
  • Competitive and liquid debt market available to support these buyers and sustained

low interest rate environment has led to attractive valuations for yield based assets

  • Emergence of renewable yield co’s in the UK and Spain driven by public market

investor demand

  • But investors pursue all assets classes within the infrastructure space so energy

sector needs to provide competitive investment environment with…

  • Stability and Predictability of revenues and cost; and
  • Supportive regulatory and political environments

(1) Source: Prequin

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SLIDE 5

RBC Capital Markets 4

The General Drivers of Financial Investors’ Risk Appetite

Risk Low Low – Medium Medium Medium – High Type of Investors Pension Funds / Sovereign Wealth Funds Infrastructure Funds / Pension Funds / Sovereign Wealth Funds Infrastructure Funds / PE PE Firms / Hybrid Funds Business Drivers

  • Often regulated
  • Unregulated but with

subsidy support

  • Unregulated
  • Exposed to

Competition and/or Market Dynamics, some contracting Operating vs. Development Risk

  • Mature Long Term

Operating Asset

  • Limited development

risk

  • May have relatively

short operating track record or mix of

  • perating and little

development

  • More volatility in

earnings

  • May consider new

build or greenfield with suitable risk mitigates

  • Heavy development

focus

  • Increased earnings

volatility Returns Nature

  • Inflation linked

revenues and strong cash yield

  • Mainly cash yield and

some capital growth

  • Mix of cash yield and

capital growth

  • Mainly capital growth

Leverage

  • High leverage (close

to regulated asset base)

  • Moderate to high

leverage

  • Moderate leverage
  • Lower leverage

structure Expected Equity IRR Range (Levered)

  • 7 - 9%
  • 9 - 11%
  • 10 - 12%
  • >12%

Examples

  • Solar
  • Water Utilities
  • Distribution and

transmission network

  • Wind
  • Biomass
  • Conventional

generation

  • Pipelines
  • Storage assets
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SLIDE 6

RBC Capital Markets 5

Selected Recent Energy Deals (UK / Ireland)

Transaction Sector EV Equity Value Acquirers (Stake in wind portfolio) Wind £502m £246m (49%) (PNE wind portfolio) Wind £103m Undisclosed UK Solar Portfolio (c.100MW) Solar £81m Undisclosed Water £187m £100m UK Government Pipeline and Storage System Midstream £82m Undisclosed (Stake in Wind portfolio) Wind £176m £91m (51.6%) Gas Transmission £895m £562m (62.8%) Wind £2,576m £644m (25.0%) Conventional Generation & Renewables €1.1bn Undisclosed

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RBC Capital Markets 6

The Investment Environment: Challenges for Conventional Generation

  • Mid to longer term requirements for new facilities clear, but price signals currently

insufficient for investment

  • Capacity overhang from recessionary fall in demand and low coal prices resulted in

low spark spreads and fall in output

  • Spark spreads expected to recover as demand picks up and plants close under LCCD
  • But continuing uncertainty regarding impact of renewables on prices and load factors
  • Capacity mechanisms offer some greater certainty – but 2014 UK auction was at a

clearing price below the annual fixed costs of most existing plant on the system

  • Economic viability will require securing earnings from spark spreads and system

balancing services

  • Unlikely to see financial investors lead the way
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RBC Capital Markets 7

The Investment Environment: Challenges for Renewables

  • In the past renewables were seen as an ‘invest and forget’ class of assets - the upfront

capital outlay opened up a long term and (fairly) dependable cash flow

  • Many projects now face growing power market risks due to changing support

mechanisms, regulatory uncertainty or stage of life

  • Feed in tariffs most attractive to investors as address key aspects of market risk
  • Trend towards top-up tariffs remove some of this protection:
  • Exposing the generator to balancing risk
  • Introducing a basis risk on the generator’s ability to sell its output at the market

reference price used for the top-up tariff

  • Removing volume certainty during periods of negative market prices
  • Renewables remain a significant area of focus for investment due to the scale of
  • pportunity but risks are not straightforward to assess and may have an impact on

recent high valuations

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SLIDE 9

RBC Capital Markets 8

Challenge for the Next Decade

  • Capital will be attracted to certainty and Governments need to decide how much

support they will provide and to which technologies

  • Further evidence is needed on the potential to reduce the long run marginal costs for

newer technologies such as offshore wind to make investors more confident they will reach their return thresholds

  • Early stage technology is still challenging for investors and need government support

– some of GIB’s initiatives have been useful providing support to certain sectors

  • As generation technologies reach a certain maturity, the next decade should be

focused on the demand side:

  • Consumption reduction through improved insulation, new lighting technology,

more efficient appliances

  • Demand control to match generation patterns: large battery technologies, smart

meters, electric cars, etc.

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SLIDE 10

RBC Capital Markets 9

Disclaimer

RBC Capital Markets (“RBC CM”) is a business name used by certain branches, subsidiaries and business units of Royal Bank of Canada including RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited, Royal Bank of Canada, London Branch and Roy al Bank of Canada, Sy dney Branch. The entities comprising RBC Capital Markets are wholly owned subsidiaries of the Royal Bank of Canada and are members of the RBC Financial Group. The Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited and the Royal Bank, London Branch are authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). This Document has been prepared by RBCCM for discussion and/or inf ormation purposes only and is being prov ided to you based on our reasonable belief that you are a sophisticated institutional investor that is capable of assessing the merits and risks of the transactions and f inancial matters discussed herein. Consequently this document is expressly not directed at or for distribution to retail customers as def ined by the FSA. Nothing in this document constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectiv es of persons who receive it. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other instruments or a recommendation to enter into any transaction by any RBC entity and should not be construed as such in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. The inf ormation contained herein is for discussion purposes only and, in the case of any security, subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the related offering document or prospectus; any information contained herein is qualified in its entirety by reference to the f inal f orm of offering document or prospectus, as amended or supplemented. An offering may be made only by means of a f inal offering circular or prospectus, which will contain a complete description of the terms of the security, the offering and the issuer of the security, including a descriptions of certain risks associated with the security. The transactions and f inancial matters may not be suitable for every investor and any offering may be restricted to those inv estors that meet certain criteria imposed by applicable law or regulation. Transactions of the type described herein may inv olv e a high degree of risk and the value of such investments may be highly volatile. Such risks may include without limitation risk of adv erse or unanticipated market developments, risk of issuers def ault and risk of liquidity. In certain transactions counterparties may lose their entire investment or incur an unlimited loss. This brief statement does not purport to identify or suggest all the risks (directly or indirectly ) and

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