Invesco Global Emerging Markets Strategy
November 2018
This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use.
Invesco Global Emerging Markets Strategy November 2018 Doug - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Invesco Global Emerging Markets Strategy November 2018 Doug Turnbull This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for Senior Analyst consumer use. Caught in a Trap, or Islands in the Stream Looking for the opportunities after
This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use.
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Source: Emerging Advisors Monthly GEM Chartbook September 2018.
0% 5%
0% 10% 20% Mar-91 Aug-96 Feb-02 Aug-07 Jan-13 Jul-18
GDP, LHS (5 y/y 3qma) Current account balance, RHS (12m, % of GDP)
Turkey: GDP & Current Account Balance
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0% 50% 100% 100 200 300 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
FX rate index, LHS, (EOP, Jan 2010=100) PPI inflation, RHS, % 3mma
Turkey: FX vs PPI inflation
Source: Invesco as at 30 September 2018. 5
Source: Bloomberg as at 15 October 2018. 6
Source: Invesco as at 30 September 2018. 7
Source: Emerging Advisers as at 23 September 2018. 8
Source: UBS as at 15 August 2018. 9
Sources: Invesco, Bloomberg as at 12 October 2018.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Earnings per share 2 4 6 5 10 15 20 25 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 PE ratio, x (LHS) Dividend Yield. % (RHS) P/E & Dividend Yield
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Source: Emerging Advisors Group as at 30 June 2018. 11
Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data to 7 September 2018. Alibaba, JD.com and Autohome’s performance is normalised to 100 at IPO data (Sept14, May14 and Dec13 respectively). For illustrative purposes only. 12
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Source: Emerging Advisers Group. EM credit growth (mid-weighted, % y/y 3mma) as at 30 June 2018. 15
Source: Emerging Advisers Group. Current balance (12m cum, % GDP) as at 30 June 2018. 16
Source: Worldscope, FactSet, Citi Research as at 16 October 2018. 17
Source: Worldscope, FactSet, Citi Research as at 16 October 2018. 18
Source: Datastream as at 1 August 2018. 1 January 1994 = 100. 19
Source: Morgan Stanley as at end July 2018. Earnings Revision Breadth Definition: (Number of up revisions minus number of down revision)/total number of available analysts forecasts. FY2 refers to next year’s earnings, and rolls over each February. 20
Source: MSCI, IBES, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 12-month forward calculations as at 17 April 2018. LHC: 100 = 18/01/2004. RHC: 100 = 18/01/2004. 21
Source: Bloomberg as at 17 July 2018. 22
Source: Datastream as at 31 July 2018. 23
Source: Invesco. Team structure as of 30 September 2018. Years as at 30 September 2018; years refers to time in team and () refers to industry experience. Subject to rounding.1 Stuart Parks will be retiring in July 2019, 2 Dean Newman will be retiring in December 2018; both will continue to manage portfolios and engage with clients throughout transition period.. 25 Fund Managers & Analysts Product Management
Ian Hargreaves Fund Manager (Co-head) 24 years (24) William Lam Fund Manager (Co-head) 12 years (18) Tim Dickson Fund Manager 10 years (26) John Pellegry Product Director 16 years (23) Charles Bond Deputy FM 6 years (8) Fiona Yang Analyst 1 years (6) James McDermottroe Analyst 5 years (5) Nicholas Mason Fund Manager 12 years (19) Jonathan de Vos Senior Analyst 3 years (17) Douglas Turnbull Senior Analyst 1 year (11) Fund Manager Assistants
Dana Draper FM Assistant 19 years (19)
Stuart Parks1 Fund Manager 25 years (34) Dean Newman2 Fund Manager 25 years (33)
Karen Holroyd FM Assistant 2 years (2)
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Retail (Luxembourg) Reference benchmark Index Fund Manager(s) AUM ($m) Invesco Asian Equity Fund MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Stuart Parks, William Lam, Ian Hargreaves $1,292 Invesco Asian Focus Equity Fund MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Ian Hargreaves $10.7 Invesco Pacific Equity Fund1 MSCI AC Pacific William Lam, Charles Bond, Tony Roberts $246 Invesco Emerging Markets Equity Fund MSCI Emerging Markets Dean Newman, William Lam, Ian Hargreaves $57 Invesco Latin American Equity Fund MSCI EM Latin America Nicholas Mason $5.1 Invesco Emerging Europe Equity Fund MSCI EM Eastern Europe Nicholas Mason $23 Retail (UK) Fund Manager(s) AUM (£m) Invesco Asian Fund (UK) MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan William Lam £2,407 Invesco Asia Trust plc MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Ian Hargreaves £221 Invesco Asian Equity Income Fund (UK) MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Tim Dickson £42 Invesco Pacific Fund (UK)1 MSCI AC Pacific William Lam, Charles Bond, Tony Roberts £342 Invesco Global Emerging Markets Fund (UK) MSCI Emerging Markets Dean Newman, William Lam, Ian Hargreaves £362 Invesco Latin American Fund (UK) MSCI EM Latin America Nicholas Mason £140 Invesco Emerging European Fund (UK) MSCI EM Eastern Europe Nicholas Mason £43 Institutional Segregated accounts2 Fund Manager(s) AUM ($m) Asia ex Japan strategy (9 accounts) Stuart Parks, Ian Hargreaves, Tim Dickson, William Lam $7,772 Asia Pacific ex Japan strategy (4 accounts) Stuart Parks, Ian Hargreaves, Tim Dickson, William Lam $1,772
Source: Invesco. AUM data as at 30 September 2018. 1Includes the Japanese portion of the strategy (42% of AuM). 2Institutional segregated accounts are co-managed by Stuart, Ian and Tim with the exception of two accounts which are mandated to be identical to the Invesco Asian Fund (UK) and the Invesco Asian Equity Fund, in which case the fund manager(s) for the account is (are) the one(s) managing the retail fund in question including William Lam. 3Includes multi-asset sleeves representing 9.4% of total AuM (73% in the Asia ex Japan strategy and 27% in the Asia Pacific ex Japan strategy). The strategy (eg “Asia ex Japan”) reflects the index against which the fund/mandate is benchmarked. $=USD. 26 Total team assets under management: $17.6bn3
Source: Invesco. 1There is no guarantee this target will be achieved. 27
For illustrative purposes only. 28 Sell at estimated fair value
For illustrative purposes only. This table is an illustration and simplification of our proprietary stock comparison tool with earnings-per-share estimates and an earnings-based valuation ratio (P/E) as inputs. A more complete version of the stock comparison table, particularly for financial companies, would include return-on-equity estimates and asset-based valuation ratios such as the price-to-book ratio as inputs. *CAGR: cumulative annual growth rate. Dividends are included in the total CAGR estimate but not apparent in the above table. 29
Company Current P/E EPS 3-y CAGR* Fair P/E in 3 years Total return 3-y CAGR* Stock A 3.1x
6x +24.9% Stock B 11.2x 14% 13x +22.7% Stock Y 19.6x 10% 16x +6.4% Stock Z 8.0x
9x +4.7% Stock C 34.1x 31% 25x +18.1%
Source: Invesco as at 31 March 2018. For illustrative purposes only.
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Portfolio position sizing distribution
Naspers Novatek Alibaba FEMSA Banco do Brasil Methanex HDFC China Mobile Credicorp Vale NMC Health Bitauto
Source: Invesco as at 31 December 2017, since fund inception on 30 September 2003. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 31
16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0
MSCI EM index IA Global Emerging Markets Higher risk Higher relative return Higher risk Lower relative return Lower risk Higher relative return Lower risk Lower relative return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: Lipper and Invesco as at 30 September 2018. The risk return profile is shown for the Invesco Global Emerging Markets Fund (UK) (Z Acc share class) in sterling, inclusive of reinvested income and net of the Ongoing Charge and portfolio transaction costs. Index and peer figures are total return, in sterling. 32
Invesco Global Emerging Markets Fund (UK)
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Invesco as at 31 December 2017. An upside capture ratio over 100 indicates a portfolio has generally outperformed the reference benchmark during periods of positive returns for the benchmark. Meanwhile, a downside capture ratio of less than 100 indicates that a fund has lost less than its reference benchmark in periods when the benchmark has fallen. Relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 33 Since 01/04/07 Since 01/04/07
Consumer Disc. Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Cash Industrials IT Materials Real Estate Telecoms Utilities
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Invesco (CAPeR)- Russell - Top-Down with independent groups. Stock Selection effect includes “Interaction Effect”. Time period 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017. Index: MSCI Emerging Markets. Performance numbers, portfolio returns and attributions are shown in GBP and are gross of management fees and expenses. The attribution figures are estimates and should be used for indicative purposes only. Data cleansing and retrospective information availability may cause changes. *The “Interaction Effect”, which is the relative return that is not solely attributed to either asset allocation or stock selection has been included in the “Stock Selection Effect”. 1Source: Lipper as at 30 September 2018. Performance figures are based on the Z (Acc) share class. Performance figures for all share classes can be found in the relevant Key Investor Information Document. Performance figures are shown in sterling, inclusive of reinvested income and net of the Ongoing Charge and portfolio transaction costs. Reference benchmark and other index information source: Datastream, total return, in sterling. Index: Total Return, in GBP.
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Outperformance 32.08% Fund performance 83.61% Reference benchmark performance 51.53%
12-month net rolling returns1 30/09/13 to 30/09/14 30/09/14 to 30/09/15 30/09/15 to 30/09/16 30/09/16 to 30/09/17 30/09/17 to 30/09/18 Global Emerging Markets Fund (UK) 7.75
40.49 18.34
MSCI Emerging Markets 4.19
36.18 18.57 2.05
Source: Style Research as at 31 December 2017. 35
Book to Price Earnings Yield Free Cash Flow Yield Return on Equity Earnings Growth Forecast FY1 Revisions Forecast Sales Gr Long Term Returns Stability Market Cap Momentum ST Debt to Equity Exposure to Inflation Exposure to Oil Return
Value Growth Other Specific
Country Fund Index Active
Russia 6.92 3.70 3.22 South Africa 8.93 6.09 2.85 Greece 2.57 0.29 2.28 Mexico 4.57 3.16 1.41 United Arab Emirates 2.02 0.66 1.36 Kazakhstan 1.30 0.00 1.30 Argentina 1.29 0.00 1.29 Colombia 1.65 0.47 1.19 South Korea 15.95 14.88 1.07 Chile 1.78 1.10 0.68 Peru 1.08 0.41 0.67 Poland 1.89 1.22 0.67 Cash 0.62 0.00 0.62 Turkey 1.01 0.61 0.40 Pakistan 0.00 0.06
Egypt 0.00 0.13
Czech Republic 0.00 0.19
Brazil 5.91 6.19
Hungary 0.00 0.29
Philippines 0.65 0.96
India 7.92 8.53
Indonesia 1.25 1.95
Qatar 0.00 0.94
Thailand 1.54 2.48
Taiwan 10.64 12.29
Malaysia 0.00 2.43
HK & China 20.51 30.99
Source: Invesco as at 30 September 2018. 1Relative to MSCI Emerging Markets index. Numbers are subject to rounding and relate to country of exposure.
HK & China Taiwan Qatar India Hungary Czech Republic Pakistan Cash Peru South Korea Argentina United Arab Emirates Greece Russia 36
Region Fund MSCI Emerging Markets Asia 58.5 73.9 EMEA 24.6 14.7 Latin America 16.3 11.3 Cash 0.6 0.0
§ Banks mostly in Asia, and valuations compelling especially in rate normalising environments § Exposure to internet stocks, especially in China, driving S&S top overweight § Hardware linked to that, mostly in Asia, and offering attractive valuations ex-cash § Telecoms the flip-side of this, as they have to fund network expansion etc. § Energy may be underweight, but our factor exposure is positive
Source: Invesco as at 30 September 2018. 1Relative to MSCI Emerging Markets index, top and bottom 5 actives only. 37
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