International Cooperation on Energy Data Transparency, Outlooks, and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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International Cooperation on Energy Data Transparency, Outlooks, and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Moscow| Nov 17-19 | 2015 International Cooperation on Energy Data Transparency, Outlooks, and Harmonization of Data Exploration, Production, Processing 2015 International Forum Moscow Fuad A Al-Zayer Global Coordinator, Energy Data


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International Cooperation on Energy Data Transparency, Outlooks, and Harmonization of Data

Exploration, Production, Processing 2015 International Forum – Moscow

Fuad A Al-Zayer Global Coordinator, Energy Data Transparency, IEF Moscow| Nov 17-19 | 2015

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Session : Scenario, Forecasts, & Statistics

  • Directions for development of international

systems of energy statistics

  • Modern energy scenarios and projections
  • Role of energy scenarios for strategic planning
  • New approaches to improve energy scenarios,

increasing their transparency

  • Prospects for international cooperation
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Presentation Flow

  • 1. IEF Role in Energy Dialogue & International

Cooperation

  • 2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)
  • 3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-

IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

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Presentation Flow

  • 1. IEF Role in Energy Dialogue & International

Cooperation

  • 2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)
  • 3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-

IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

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IEF Created by Ministers for Ministers

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IEF Member Countries

Account for around Global Oil and Gas Supply & Demand

  • f
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IEF Industry Advisory Committee (IAC)

Values IEF Neutrality and Convening Power

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Neutrality and Cooperation

IEF raises key issues - facilitates stakeholder engagement

Experts Ministers OPEC G20 IEA EU UNSD Eurostat APEC OLADE Officials Academi a IGU Producer CEOs Consumer Transit GECF

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IEF Uniqueness

  • Neutrality
  • Inclusion: Global Cooperation
  • Transparency (JODI)
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The IEF: The Road to International Cooperation and Transparency

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Russia: A Big Supporter Energy Dialogue and IEF Role

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Presentation Flow

  • 1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International

Cooperation

  • 2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)
  • 3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-

IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

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JODI = International Cooperation

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Why does the world need energy data transparency (JODI)?

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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

JODI was born to Address Oil Price Volatility

Source: ICE

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JODI Started with Oil:

The Leader of Energy Sources

35 35 32 27 29 30 30 29 23 23 24 26 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 1 1 1 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2009 2010 2020 2035 % Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other Renewables

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The Journey of JODI: Still Going Strong

Bangkok Apr 01 Riyadh Nov 01 Mexico May 02 Osaka 2002 Cairo Oct 03 Doha 2006 Riyadh 2000 Bali Oct 04 Riyadh Nov 06 A’dam 2004 Rome 2008 Quito Jun 09 Cancun 2010 Kuwait 2012 Moscow 2014 Moscow Oct 10 Beijing Oct 11 KL Nov 09 Bangkok Sep 08 Riyadh Mar 08 Algiers Oct 07 J’burg Jan 07 Rabat Oct 12 Doha May 12 Caracas Aug 06 Ankara Nov 09

JT1 JT4 JT6 JT5 JT3 JT2 JT7 JC1 JC2 JC3 JC4 JC5 JC7 JC8 GDTC1 GDTC2

Public Release of JODI-Oil World Database

Riyadh Nov 05

JODE – JODI (permanent mechanism) Launch of the JODE Decision to make Database Public Extended JODI Questionnaire Public Release of Trade Data 19 November 2005 Launch of JODI Database by King Abdullah
  • 2nd Edition JODI-Oil
Manual
  • JODI-Gas Manual
  • Launch JODI Gas

New Delhi Apr 15

JC12

GECF Joins Apr 14
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JODI-Oil Launched in Riyadh 2005 - JODI-Gas Launched in Moscow 2014

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Russia is a Big Supporter of JODI

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JODI Conferences:

The Key to Advance JODI

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Regional Capacity Building Workshops:

Key to Deliver Goals of Energy Data Transparency

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Capacity Building:

Plans for 2016

  • Regional JODI Training Workshop for Asia and Pacific Region.
  • Regional JODI Training Workshop for CIS Region.
  • Plans underway Regarding finding a host for next JODI

Workshops and Translation of JODI Manuals.

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Efforts to Extend Reach of JODI-Oil

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Increasing JODI-Oil Participating Countries

May 2014

101

May 2015

108

Armenia Belarus Gambia Niger Tajikistan the FYR of Macedonia Mauritius

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Efforts to Extend Reach of JODI-Gas

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Increasing JODI-Gas Participating Countries

May 2014

77

May 2015

79

Iraq the FYR of Macedonia

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JODI Featured regularly in international media

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JODI: High on the Political Agenda

The 4th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable

April 2011, Kuwait City

G8 Actions on Energy & Climate Change

May 2012, Camp David, USA

14th International Energy Forum

May 2014, Moscow

4th IEF-IGU Ministerial Meeting

November 2014, Acapulco Mexico

G20 Meetings and Summits

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Feedback From Leaders

“...we commit to strengthen Joint Organisations Data Initiative by ensuring greater visibility, more complete and comprehensive data, enhanced access and improved availability, and by maintaining support for capacity building. We look forward to the launch of JODI-Gas at the earliest date possible…” - G20 Leaders Declaration: September 2013 “..The recent launch of JODI-Gas at the 14th IEF Ministerial was an important step to bring about data transparency to gas markets…” - Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, SG IEF at 4th IEF-IGU Mexico: November 2014 “ There was strong support for the progress on the usage and data capture, particularly with the launch of JODI Gas last year. Some members suggested expanding JODI to new energy resources...” G20 ESWG Meeting Turkey February 2015

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JODI: It is Not a Database. It is a Commitment

  • Supports sound decision-making
  • Encourages investments
  • Reduces market volatility
  • Ensure market stability
  • Improves Forecasts & Outlooks
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Presentation Flow

  • 1. IEF Role on Energy Dialogue & International

Cooperation

  • 2. Energy Data Transparency (JODI)
  • 3. Global Energy Outlooks Comparisons: IEA-

IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

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IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model

  • Cancún Ministerial Declaration in 2010.
  • A joint Symposium is held in Riyadh annually to address

this issue.

  • Joint work to harmonise basic concepts and make
  • utlooks more comparable.
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Annual IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Symposium

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Outlook Comparisons: IEF- Duke University Energy Initiative Report

  • Compares assumptions,

methodologies and projections of IEA and OPEC short-medium and long term energy market outlooks

  • Findings are reviewed by IEA and

OPEC and published by IEF for debate at the annual Symposium and Technical Meetings

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Follow Up Technical Meetings

  • Discuss differences of methods and definitions

, identified in the IEF Duke Background paper

  • 3 Technical Meetings between IEA, IEF, &

OPEC–in 2015

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Upcoming Symposium 2016

  • Date Set for Feb 16 & 17 2016
  • To be held in Riyadh
  • To be attended SG OPEC, Deputy ED IEA
  • Presence of High Level Dignitaries and Senior

Experts

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Key Observations of Last Year’s 2014 Outlooks

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Assumptions on the impact of efficiency gains and lower prices differ on the short-term.

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Data transparency aligned views on stronger OECD supply growth.

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The new low price environment will tests the alignment on North American supply growth.

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Long term GDP growth assumption differences center on China and Russia.

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The largest differential is policy uncertainty about oil demand across scenarios.

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Conclusion

  • Energy Dialogue & International Cooperation is key toward

transformation of the global energy market

  • Energy Data Transparency (JODI) is a fundamental deliverable
  • f international cooperation and energy dialogue
  • IEA-IEF-OPEC Cooperation Model and annual symposium is a

good model to follow to improve methodology of energy scenarios and outlooks

  • Russia is a key contributor to Energy Dialogue platforms and

Energy Data Transparency (JODI)

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