Innovation Track Innovation Track - - Summary of results and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Thursday, July 14, 2005 Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar -

• Baltimore,

Baltimore, MD MD 1 1

Innovation Track Innovation Track

• Summary of results and

Summary of results and future research needs future research needs

Hartmut Fricke Hartmut Fricke

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 2

Structure of the track Structure of the track

• We had 8 Papers: 4 European and 4 US Papers

We had 8 Papers: 4 European and 4 US Papers

• Innovative ATM

Innovative ATM did call for a potentially wide did call for a potentially wide range of (conceptual) topics and did suggest a range of (conceptual) topics and did suggest a rather long term perspective and as such rather long term perspective and as such virtually a rather low readiness level of the ideas. virtually a rather low readiness level of the ideas.

• We got: A clear mixture of specific and strategic

We got: A clear mixture of specific and strategic papers, but all under the scheme: papers, but all under the scheme:

• Provide ideas on how the Future ATM System can

Provide ideas on how the Future ATM System can cope with the expected growth in demand until 2025 cope with the expected growth in demand until 2025 while still staying safe and efficient while still staying safe and efficient

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 3

In Detail: Interpretation In Detail: Interpretation CfP CfP – – Research Community Research Community

Conceptual Ideas

• n how to

design the future system while Identifying problem areas Specific ideas new Tools, new type of information gathering & presentation

Range of Topic

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Major Research Findings Major Research Findings

• We did open the door for

We did open the door for “ “Non ATM Non ATM” ” people in the people in the design and concept finding phase. A promising attempt. design and concept finding phase. A promising attempt.

• Necessity for a real Paradigm Shift: Need for

Necessity for a real Paradigm Shift: Need for breakthrough technologies clearly identified. breakthrough technologies clearly identified.

• Uncertainty on how to extrapolate from empirical know

Uncertainty on how to extrapolate from empirical know how and data to forecast future system behavior when how and data to forecast future system behavior when this shift is taking place. this shift is taking place.

• Consensus that new role assignment of ATM players,

Consensus that new role assignment of ATM players, enabled by air & ground automation, is needed to enabled by air & ground automation, is needed to provide requested capacity provide requested capacity

• Future ATM System must (still) work in disrupted

Future ATM System must (still) work in disrupted conditions safely. conditions safely.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 5

Future research needs Future research needs

• Find a useful (economical) way to allow for

Find a useful (economical) way to allow for communication with communication with “ “Non ATM Beings Non ATM Beings” ”. .

• Find procedures and techniques on how to

Find procedures and techniques on how to forecast the forecast the “ “unknown unknown” ”. .

• New system design includes new financing

New system design includes new financing strategies in challenging economic times. strategies in challenging economic times.

• Innovative techniques to present complex

Innovative techniques to present complex information and situations to the ATM players. information and situations to the ATM players.

• Find techniques to proof safe system behavior in

Find techniques to proof safe system behavior in disrupted mode. disrupted mode.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 6

Self Criticism Self Criticism

• The INNO Track did not really reflect its original

The INNO Track did not really reflect its original intent: intent:

• Some papers could easily be grouped elsewhere

Some papers could easily be grouped elsewhere

• Some had a greater maturity level than expected

Some had a greater maturity level than expected

• Recommendation: Reexamine for the INNO track.

Recommendation: Reexamine for the INNO track. If the INNO track continues: If the INNO track continues:

• Encourage Research Community to share Paradigm

Encourage Research Community to share Paradigm changing concepts earlier changing concepts earlier

• Rather forget (a bit) about how the transition path will

Rather forget (a bit) about how the transition path will have to look: Let us be more open Minded ! have to look: Let us be more open Minded !

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QNAs QNAs

The floor is open The floor is open

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 8

Statistical Performance Statistical Performance

• Station keeping (A/C

Station keeping (A/C – – A/C) to optimize landing A/C) to optimize landing sequences (linear/non linear feedback loop). sequences (linear/non linear feedback loop). Statistical Performance Evaluation for both loops. Statistical Performance Evaluation for both loops.

• Both loops deliver similar results for minimum

Both loops deliver similar results for minimum distance but non linear slightly better for speed distance but non linear slightly better for speed

• variation. All better compared to the
• variation. All better compared to the “

“no loop no loop scenario scenario” ”

• Speed variation during maneuvers not yet tackled.

Speed variation during maneuvers not yet tackled.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 9

Delay Propagation Delay Propagation

• BN to verify delay.

BN to verify delay.

• Pure statistical data (expertise may be included). How to use th

Pure statistical data (expertise may be included). How to use this is model for future configurations of the ATM system ? model for future configurations of the ATM system ?

• Downstream/Upstream effects considered through BN (delay as wave

Downstream/Upstream effects considered through BN (delay as waves s through the system) through the system)

• Scenarios: How to assure that all assumptions fit to each other

Scenarios: How to assure that all assumptions fit to each other ? (delay ? (delay set high at XYZ, VMC/IMC conditions downstream) ? set high at XYZ, VMC/IMC conditions downstream) ?

• No casual explanation of modifications done. Scenarios only may

No casual explanation of modifications done. Scenarios only may help help to understand NAS behavior on some constraints to understand NAS behavior on some constraints

• Critical step to set up the probabilities. How to validate ?

Critical step to set up the probabilities. How to validate ?

• Twofold feeling in the session.

Twofold feeling in the session.

• Approach should be compared to the micro level (Individual aircr

Approach should be compared to the micro level (Individual aircraft aft being traced). being traced).

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 10

• We see how route charges are being computed (SU). Full

We see how route charges are being computed (SU). Full cost recovery principle (follow up process). cost recovery principle (follow up process).

• Go away from this principle not yet discussed.

Go away from this principle not yet discussed.

• Unit rates do vary tremendously over the states (even

Unit rates do vary tremendously over the states (even within CEATS) within CEATS)

• 30% of the costs go to CEATS.

30% of the costs go to CEATS.

• Charging differently: Scenarios presented.

Charging differently: Scenarios presented.

• Low Unit rate in AUS means extremely high rates in the

Low Unit rate in AUS means extremely high rates in the LAS: hits LAS: hits „ „Regional Airlines Regional Airlines“ “

• Eurocontrol

Eurocontrol / EU will have to decide. / EU will have to decide.

• CEATS is dramatically changing economically

CEATS is dramatically changing economically – – theses theses scenarios are still under consideration ? scenarios are still under consideration ?

Route Route Charging Charging

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 11

Agent Agent Based Based Simulation Simulation

• Appropriate decomposition for large scale systems:

Appropriate decomposition for large scale systems:

• The question: If all

The question: If all „ „agents agents“ “ would follow its rules, would it be safe ? would follow its rules, would it be safe ?

• MIDAS explanation (rep.) applied to time based sep. vs. MIT sep.

MIDAS explanation (rep.) applied to time based sep. vs. MIT sep.

• Workload is equal

Workload is equal – – AB Model gives us an unique inside View AB Model gives us an unique inside View… …Workload Workload source Analysis. Causal Mechanisms to understand the effects. source Analysis. Causal Mechanisms to understand the effects.

• Maximizing the Utility of simulations (Data Analysis, Use Networ

Maximizing the Utility of simulations (Data Analysis, Use Network of k of Simulations) Simulations)

• Idea: Integrated Model for capacity, delay and safety (risk).

Idea: Integrated Model for capacity, delay and safety (risk).

• Transition of micro to macro level (Implement specific rues, new

Transition of micro to macro level (Implement specific rues, new tech. And see

• tech. And see

what comes out on the macro level ? what comes out on the macro level ?

• Agent Based model covers controller & Pilots so far: Extend to d

Agent Based model covers controller & Pilots so far: Extend to dispatcher et al ispatcher et al ? Yes, not yet done. Agent specification on pilot side still poo ? Yes, not yet done. Agent specification on pilot side still poor. r.

• Agent do not adapt to lessons learned. Iterative Design process

Agent do not adapt to lessons learned. Iterative Design process ? Does exist ? Does exist but not yet done. but not yet done.

• Clear Statement for safety evaluation

Clear Statement for safety evaluation thorugh thorugh Agent Emergence. Agent Emergence.

• Implicit experiment definition already done in the experiments.

Implicit experiment definition already done in the experiments.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 12

3 3-

• D in ATC

D in ATC

• 3D: Using immersive displays (stereoscopic display).

3D: Using immersive displays (stereoscopic display). Innovative MMI (gloves, eye tracker..). Voice commands. Innovative MMI (gloves, eye tracker..). Voice commands.

• Virtually resolve conflicts by drawing according to

Virtually resolve conflicts by drawing according to „ „try and try and see see“ “. .

• Does recognize, that information overload is a problem.

Does recognize, that information overload is a problem.

• Wake vortex issue not yet covered. Time over delay could

Wake vortex issue not yet covered. Time over delay could be useful ? be useful ?

• Speech to be used for specific task could be beneficial ?

Speech to be used for specific task could be beneficial ?

• Heavy traffic load is considered but yet not solved.

Heavy traffic load is considered but yet not solved.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 13

SHIFT SHIFT

• Program SHIFT (of paradigm) as Top Down

Program SHIFT (of paradigm) as Top Down approach. approach.

• „

„Contract of objectives Contract of objectives“ “

• Arriving on time. Be flexible to handle disruptions (deal with

Arriving on time. Be flexible to handle disruptions (deal with uncertainty). uncertainty).

• „

„Target Window Target Window“ “ = Global objective + local constraints + = Global objective + local constraints + disruption management (uncertainty) disruption management (uncertainty)

• Try to find

Try to find „ „local optimum local optimum“ “ for each ANSP. (How defined and for each ANSP. (How defined and how being measured ?) how being measured ?)

• and

and „ „Dual Airspace Dual Airspace“ “

• A way to increase capacity: Segregate traffic for attitude /

A way to increase capacity: Segregate traffic for attitude / directions (Highway and Districts (Airports)) directions (Highway and Districts (Airports))

• No idea so far how to get uncertainty being

No idea so far how to get uncertainty being modeled. modeled.

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 14

CREA! CREA!

• Continuation of a presentation in BUD. CREA! Has come

Continuation of a presentation in BUD. CREA! Has come to its end to its end

• Design is an opportunity to find new solution.

Design is an opportunity to find new solution.

• People included having no idea about ATM as

People included having no idea about ATM as „ „divergence divergence“ “ + + ATCOs ATCOs as as „ „convergence convergence“ “

• Very generic tool set (

Very generic tool set (Hardbook Hardbook, , … …). Quite simply produced, but ). Quite simply produced, but with detailed information on it (?). Mock up ended up with a low with detailed information on it (?). Mock up ended up with a low fidelity prototype. fidelity prototype.

• Technical support for briefing after leave, hand

Technical support for briefing after leave, hand-

• over, individual
• ver, individual

aircraft, debriefing. aircraft, debriefing.

• Multidisciplinary work is a challenge. To overcome

Multidisciplinary work is a challenge. To overcome communication problems: efficiency. communication problems: efficiency.

• Integration of the system is not yet integrated. This is to do b

Integration of the system is not yet integrated. This is to do but ut feasible. feasible.

• Training of students was very strange. (No access to controllers

Training of students was very strange. (No access to controllers at the first stage). at the first stage).

Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, MD INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 15

CO CO-

• ATM

ATM

• CO

CO-

• ATM. Motivation is driven from DAG
• ATM. Motivation is driven from DAG-
• TM results: Potential for greatly

TM results: Potential for greatly improving cap. If sep. responsibility (Controller Managed / Fr improving cap. If sep. responsibility (Controller Managed / Free ee Maneuvering) is split among multiple operators Maneuvering) is split among multiple operators

• Addresses the costs: Benefit

Addresses the costs: Benefit-

• driven. Who invests will earn credits. Getting
• driven. Who invests will earn credits. Getting

the best TP for him. the best TP for him.

• Ranges from

Ranges from „ „Near term Transition (2012) Near term Transition (2012)“ “ til til „ „CO CO-

• ATM in 2025

ATM in 2025“ “

• Transition path includes

Transition path includes „ „Multi Sector planning Multi Sector planning“ “ (Sector Planning, Strategic (Sector Planning, Strategic conflict probe, Trajectory Coordination). conflict probe, Trajectory Coordination).

• Interaction between uncontrolled / controlled aircraft. Maybe by

Interaction between uncontrolled / controlled aircraft. Maybe by introducing introducing „ „blunders blunders“ “. .

• How to align capacity increase between en

How to align capacity increase between en-

• route sectors and airports

route sectors and airports (closely parallel RWY operations). (closely parallel RWY operations).

• How to deal with R/T COM in this DL driven concept (unequipped a

How to deal with R/T COM in this DL driven concept (unequipped aircraft). ? ircraft). ?

• Conflict and risk Management mainly controlled by using 4 D Traj

Conflict and risk Management mainly controlled by using 4 D Trajectories ectories (obliged to follow). (obliged to follow).

• D/L in relationship with throughput, reliability. Only problem s

D/L in relationship with throughput, reliability. Only problem seen: latency. een: latency.

• Trajectory prediction on ground is essential for the concept.

Trajectory prediction on ground is essential for the concept.

• Even though capacity may increase, the complexity of resulting c

Even though capacity may increase, the complexity of resulting conflict may

• nflict may

increase. increase.

• How small can a sector be and still work ?

How small can a sector be and still work ?