SLIDE 1 Influenza risk in a warming climate
Zhaohua Wu
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, & Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Qi Liu1,2, Zhe-Min Tan2, Jie Sun1, Yayi Hou2, Congbin Fu2
1. Florida State University 2. Nanjing University
SLIDE 2
Flu Epidemic
Flu Virus Potentially Infect-able Infected Patients
SLIDE 3 Flu Epidemic
Flu Virus Potentially Infect-able Infected Patients
Population Density/Distance
Favorable environment for virus survival
SLIDE 4 Flu Epidemic Flu Virus Potentially Infect-able
Previous findings:
Survival rate high in cold and dry environment
Infected Patients
Population Density/Distance
Favorable environment for virus survival
SLIDE 5 Flu Epidemic Flu Virus Potentially Infect-able
Previous findings:
Survival rate high in cold and dry environment
Infected Patients
Population Density/Distance Personal strength of immune system Our Findings: Rapid Weather Variability plays major role
Favorable environment for virus survival
SLIDE 6
COVID-19 Deaths in Age Groups
Hospitalized patients (by April 27, 2020) Italy Number of Deaths (by April 27, 2020) Massachusetts, USA Massachusetts, USA
SLIDE 7
COVID-19 Deaths in Age Groups
Hospitalized patients (by April 27, 2020) Italy Number of Deaths (by April 27, 2020) Massachusetts, USA Massachusetts, USA
Implying that the strength of the immune system of a person is indeed closely tied to the rate of infection and severity of illness.
SLIDE 8
Motivations
“以秋庚辛中于邪者为肺风。” “肺风之状，多汗恶风，色皏 然白，时咳短气，昼日则差， 暮则甚，诊在眉上，其色白。” “In later autumn or early winter, the infected ‘feng’ is the ‘feng’ of lung.” “Symptoms of the ‘feng’ of lung includes: severe sweating, pale face, coughing, short breathing， light symptoms in daytime, heavy symptoms in night。”
SLIDE 9
Motivations
The weather, now warm, now cold, Makes it harder than ever to keep fit!
1. Ancient medical observations and literature statements were a sort of statistical summary of how weather impact diseases. 2. There are also plenty of modern medical evidence showing that the rapid weather fluctuation weakens human immune system.
SLIDE 10
Index of Rapid Weather Variability
The total number of consecutive-day surface air temperature differences larger than 3 K over a three-week period ending.
SLIDE 11
2017-2018 Flu Season
Peak flu intensity Autumn rapid weather variability Later Winter rapid weather variability
SLIDE 12
2017-2018 Flu Season
Peak flu intensity Autumn rapid weather variability Later Winter rapid weather variability
The spatial distribution of RWV in October and November, but not in winter is highly consistent with that of peak flu intensity.
SLIDE 13
Long-term Relation between Flu and RWV
USA China Italy France
SLIDE 14
Long-term Relation between Flu and RWV
USA China Italy France
The RWV in October and November could potentially be used as early indicators of a severe flu season, giving health professionals more time to prepare and minimize outbreaks.
SLIDE 15
Climate Model Projected RWV Changes
2020-2049 minus 1970-1999 2070-2099 minus 1970-1999
SLIDE 16
Climate Model Projected RWV Changes
2020-2049 minus 1970-1999 2070-2099 minus 1970-1999
CMIP5 simulations forced by RCP8.5 further indicate an increase in RWV, resulting in a modelled increase in infections in China, Europe and the populous north-eastern USA by up to 50%. The predictions were less severe in the RCP4.5 scenario, estimating increases of up to 30%.
SLIDE 17
Full Article
