IBPSA-England | Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Thursday 6 th July 2017, Hoare Lea O ffi ces, Western Transit Shed, 12-13 Stable Street, London NC1 4AB Indoor climate design for human comfort, health and wellbeing under a climate of change – Modelling approaches Dr Anna Mavrogianni | Lecturer in Sustainable Building and Urban Design UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering (IEDE), The Bartlett, University College London (UCL)
1 | IBPSA-England IBPSA-England is an a ffi liate of International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA) , a non-profit international society of building performance simulation researchers, developers and practitioners, dedicated to improving the built environment. IBPSA-England is founded to advance and promote the science of building performance simulation in order to improve the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of new and existing buildings. Any individual with an interest in the field of building simulation can become an individual member of IBPSA-England. There will be no membership fee. To become a member (individual or corporate) and join our mailing list please use our new sign-up portal at: http://eepurl.com/85ljr IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
2 | A growing concern Indoor overheating A nationwide, growing problem that can render homes uninhabitable in summer months. Indoor air pollution Long-term health risks are associated with indoor air pollutants from everyday objects and appliances as well as outdoor sources. They affect: • the construction industry, • social landlords, • the health care sector, • building owners, and • occupiers. IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
3 | Causes of poor indoor environmental quality A ‘perfect storm’ of interacting factors climate change • urbanization and urban heat islands • Image source: IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Image source: UCL IEDE LUCID project IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
4 | Causes of poor indoor environmental quality A ‘perfect storm’ of interacting factors climate change • urbanization and urban heat islands • winter energy e ffi ciency targets • drive to reduce construction costs • increasing land and housing prices • lack of technical skills • lack of building regulations • lack of transport emissions standards • Image source: Hoare Lea IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
5 | Causes of poor indoor environmental quality A ‘perfect storm’ of interacting factors Image source: bit.ly/2siW67B climate change • urbanization and urban heat islands • winter energy e ffi ciency targets • drive to reduce construction costs • increasing land and housing prices • lack of technical skills • Image source: bit.ly/2szUzys lack of building regulations • lack of transport emissions standards • sociocultural lack of knowledge about • heat and indoor air quality the invisibility of the problem • IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
6 | Causes of poor indoor environmental quality Indoor overheating and poor air quality impacts can be assessed with respect to: Thermal comfort Productivity and wellbeing Health Energy use and carbon emissions IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
7 | Research questions What is the relative contribution of: …at the national or citywide level? on on background regional climate space heating energy use local urban climate summer thermal comfort building energy retrofit indoor air quality inhabitant behaviour health IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
8 | Housing stock modelling aims The NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) Theme 2 – Healthy Sustainable Cities aims to build on the EPSRC LUCID and NERC AWESOME modelling work in order to create a housing stock indoor environment model for Great Britain that is: a • futurewise (including background global and regional climate change scenarios), • localised (factoring in the local climate, e.g. the Urban Heat Island e ff ect), • adaptable (able to reflect changes due to land cover changes, e.g. urban greening), • scalable (able to model future building stock growth and retrofit), • detailed (including a range of inhabitant behaviour scenarios) and • validated (using monitored data from the English Housing Energy Follow-Up Survey). regional climate local climate land use building stock inhabitant behaviour change change change transformations variation IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
9 | Housing stock modelling overview London Research Housing stock Metamodelling Testing questions modelling Great Britain Multiple Linear LUCID data Regression Artificial Neural EFUS data Networks Sample approach Archetype approach Support Vector Networks BREDEM GIS EnergyPlus Housing surveys Building fabric Inferred inputs and External climate assumptions Inhabitant behaviour IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
10 | Housing stock modelling structure A geographically-referenced housing stock database was generated using the Homes Energy E ffi ciency Database (HEED) and the English Housing Survey (EHS). This underpinned the development of individual- address level indoor overheating and air pollution risk modifiers for Great Britain , for use alongside historical weather, outdoor air pollution, population socio-economic data, and mortality data in a large-scale epidemiological investigation. Image source: Taylor et al. 2016 IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
11 | GIS-based modelling inputs Building model inputs are derived using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) databases, such as the Ordnance Survey Topography Layer, and the Geo Information Group’s Building Class product. IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
12 | Meta-modelling A meta-modelling framework underpins the development of a national housing stock model that outputs health-related building performance metrics . Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were found to outperform Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithms. Image source: Symonds et al. 2016 IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
13 | The role of location The Urban Heat Island was found to decrease the average annual household space heating load by 14% under the current climate. A further 16% reduction is predicted under a Medium-High emissions scenario in the 2050s. Space heating demand averaged at Middle Layer Super Output Area level with and without the Urban Heat Island e ff ect under the current and future (Medium- High emissions 2050s) climate Image source: Mavrogianni et al. 2012 (PhD thesis, UCL) IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
14 | The role of dwelling characteristics • Indoor overheating is determined more by the characteristics of a dwelling than its location within a city. • Homes most prone to overheating are top-floor flats, buildings with only one external façade, no shading, very high or very low insulation levels. • Internal wall insulation may increase indoor temperatures if the property is not su ffi ciently ventilated. • Detached and semi-detached A. Mean Maximum Daytime living room Temperature (MMDT, o C), B. Mean Maximum Night time bedroom Temperature (MMNT, o C), and dwellings are the most C. I/O ratios for PM 2.5 , for the pensioners’ occupancy assumption vulnerable to high levels of aggregated at the Lower Super Output Area level. infiltration of outdoor air Image source: Taylor et al. 2014 pollution. IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
15 | The role of inhabitant behaviour Shading windows that receive direct sunlight during the day and ventilating the home when external temperatures are lower can significantly reduce the risk of overheating . Living room operative temperature distribution for all window opening and lifestyle patterns for dwelling variants before and post full retrofit Image source: Mavrogianni et al. 2014 IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
16 | Combined effects Triple heat jeopardy mapping work carried out for the Greater London Authority found that the risk of death during hot weather is most likely in the outskirts of London, where many homes are at risk of overheating , rather than in the city centre, where outdoor temperatures are generally higher. Building characteristics Population age Urban heat island Estimated mortality per million population during a warm 55-day period in London Image source: Taylor et al. 2015 IBPSA-England - Modelling Residential Buildings: Comfort, Energy and Wellbeing Anna Mavrogianni, UCL IEDE
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